The Win Rate Lie
Tell me your win rate and you have told me almost nothing. I need to know what price you were getting.
Who had the better betting record?
The one who won 40% of his bets.
Because win rate is only half the equation.
Move the price. Move the bar.
At this win rate and this average price, this is the mathematical expectation across 500 $100 bets.
The denominator matters.
When somebody says, “I win 65% of my bets,” the next question should be: at what odds?
At -300, you need to win 75% just to break even. At +170, you need only 37.04%.
The useful number is not your win rate by itself. It is the gap between your win rate and the rate your prices required.
Your target moves when the price moves.
There is an even faster way to judge whether your prices are good: compare them with the closing market.
Play Beat The Close →My NHL model went 200-205 across two tracked seasons and finished +30.76 units.
The record was below .500. The prices made the difference.
Price every NHL game before the market moves.
See the NHL model