The Ultimate Modern Bettor’s Toolkit
Not because a basic spreadsheet is going to make you rich.
It probably won’t.
Build it because the first time you create your own probability, turn it into a price and compare it with the sportsbook, betting starts to look different.
You stop asking:
“Who is going to win?”
And start asking:
“What should this actually cost?”
That is the shift.
Better models, odds screens, automation and AI can come later.
First, learn how a bet gets priced.
Then:
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
Why start here
That does not mean every successful bettor spends his life inside Google Sheets.
Many eventually build better tools.
Apps. Databases. Odds screens. Automations.
Some barely touch the original spreadsheet anymore.
But somewhere along the way, they learned what the numbers underneath those tools actually mean.
A spreadsheet forces you to make your opinion measurable.
Before
“They’re playing well.”
“The quarterback looks motivated.”
“This line feels wrong.”
After
“I estimate this outcome at 58%.”
“The sportsbook price implies 52%.”
“Now I can decide whether the difference is large enough to matter.”
That is what I want this Toolkit to teach you.
Not how to predict tonight’s winner.
How to think in probabilities, prices and expected value.
Build your first model
You do not download a mysterious black box.
You build the model with me.
Step by step:
If you have never built anything in Google Sheets, good.
That is who this was made for.
You do not need to become a programmer.
You just need to understand what is happening underneath the number.
What you get
01 · 46 minutes
Build your first betting model in Google Sheets
Build a simple betting model from scratch. Learn how data becomes probabilities, how probabilities become fair odds and how your number gets compared with the sportsbook.
02 · 44 minutes
The 4-Bucket System
A practical framework for separating betting money from the rest of your life. Bankroll. Risk. Cash flow. Long-term money.
The point is simple: a losing streak should never threaten the rest of your life.
03 · 2 hours 45 minutes
How a new mindset unlocked my true potential
The longest training. And probably the most important one. The numbers matter, but so does the person using them.
How you deal with losing streaks. How much of your identity is tied to results. When betting becomes too important. Why making more money does not automatically create a better life.
The other half
I spent years thinking the goal was simply to become better at betting.
Eventually I realised that was incomplete.
A bettor can have an edge and still build a terrible life around it.
A losing week can ruin his mood.
A bad month can feel existential.
Betting can become all of his money, all of his attention and all of his identity.
That is not freedom.
The target is different.
Know your numbers.
Manage your risk.
Build income and wealth outside betting too.
Let betting be one part of a larger life.
That is why nearly three hours of this Toolkit are about mindset, money and the bigger picture.
Why I teach this
My own path was not clean.
I got interested in betting in 1998.
In the early 2000s, while studying water science, I started applying the probability and spreadsheet work I was learning to sports.
I eventually left university in my final year and tried to make betting work full time.
For a long time I also worked weekends in a bar.
Not because it looked entrepreneurial.
Because betting income was unstable and I needed money coming in when results went badly.
Those years taught me something that a winning percentage never could.
That is what eventually became this Toolkit.
Member feedback
“This was the best investment I made. I’ve never seen anything like it.”
Hugo Guedes · Member feedback from 2021
I have been teaching this approach for years. The tools have evolved. The principle has not.
Fit
You already bet.
Maybe you follow picks.
Maybe you read previews.
Maybe you have strong opinions about games.
But you have never sat down and produced a probability or price of your own.
This is the starting point.
This is for you if
Skip this if
For a finished sport model instead: See the models →
The price
$27
One payment.
Lifetime access.
No recurring fee.
For $27 you get:
30-day money-back guarantee
In their words
David Baxter
Subscribed, built his own betting models, and wrote that the material changed his perspective on sports betting.
Don · North Carolina
Member feedback after working through the training.
“I will never buy sports picks again.”
Dave Cokin
Longtime sports betting analyst and handicapper.
“Definitely worth reading for anyone trying to make their own numbers.”
Professor MJ · David Beaudoin
PhD in Statistics, professor at Laval University in Quebec City. He describes serious sports betting as statistical modelling combined with judgement.
Terry
Wrote about watching how I work through the numbers and turn them into odds.
Hugo Guedes
Member feedback from 2021.
“This was the best investment I made. I've never seen anything like it.”
Authority
Professor MJ
David Beaudoin. PhD in Statistics. Professor at Laval University in Quebec City. In his own testimonial he describes serious sports betting as statistical modelling used together with judgement, not one or the other.
Dave Cokin
Longtime sports betting analyst and handicapper.
“Definitely worth reading for anyone trying to make their own numbers.”
What comes next
That is a perfectly good outcome.
Build the model.
Understand probabilities.
Understand fair odds.
Start tracking your decisions.
Then decide what you actually need.
Some people keep building their own models.
Some move to better data and automation.
Some decide they would rather use one of my finished sport models.
And some simply become much more selective bettors.
You do not need to decide any of that today.
Start by building one.
Delivery
Your purchase is attached to the email you use at checkout.
Go to My Library.
Enter that same email.
We send you a magic sign-in link.
Click it and your Toolkit appears.
Inside you will find:
No password to remember.
No software to install.
The spreadsheet runs in Google Sheets.
Questions: mb@underdogchance.com
Guarantee
Watch the training.
Build the spreadsheet.
See whether it changes the way you think about betting.
If you do not believe it was worth $27, email me within 30 days and I will refund the purchase.
No call.
No proof required.
FAQ
No. The model training starts with basic spreadsheet functions and builds from there. If you can type into a Google Sheet and follow a video, you can do it.
No. You are not deriving equations. The goal is to understand the relationship between probability, fair odds, sportsbook price and value.
Do not buy this because you expect a beginner model to beat the market immediately. Buy it to learn how probabilities become prices and how a bettor can compare his own number with the sportsbook.
Hockey. The structure is simple enough to teach the concepts clearly, and the principles transfer to other sports.
The Toolkit teaches you how to build and understand a simple model. The sport models are finished tools built to run on real slates.
My framework for separating betting bankroll, cash flow and the rest of your money so betting does not become your entire financial life.
Yes. It is 2 hours and 45 minutes. Betting is not only a math problem. Your relationship with money, risk, losing streaks and your own identity matters too.
4 hours and 16 minutes across three videos, plus the spreadsheet you build during the model lesson.
No. The spreadsheet uses Google Sheets.
No. The point is the opposite. It is designed to help you understand how to produce and evaluate your own numbers.
Yes. The Toolkit contains the core spreadsheet and training material from the Ultimate Modern Bettor program, packaged as the $27 starting point.
Yes. One-time purchase, lifetime access to the Toolkit in My Library.
Email me within 30 days and I will refund the purchase.
mb@underdogchance.com
Start here
It does not need to be brilliant.
It does not need to beat the market.
It does not need to become your career.
It just needs to make you do something most recreational bettors never do:
Put a number on your opinion.
Once you have done that, a sportsbook line is no longer just something you bet.
It is a price you can evaluate.
That is where analytical betting starts.
$27.
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
Stop following picks.
Start pricing bets.