All Models
This is the complete Underdog Chance model library plus the education behind it.
You get the models I currently sell, the Toolkit, the two idea models, both bet trackers and A Journey — the training library where I teach the way I think about probabilities, prices, markets and betting.
This is not a picks subscription.
The spreadsheets give you numbers.
The training teaches you what to do with them.
One payment.
Lifetime access to everything included with your purchase.
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
“This was the best investment I made. I've never seen anything like it.”
Hugo Guedes · 2021
“This course has changed my life.”
Griffin
“I will never buy sports pick again!”
Don · North Carolina
“For my parts the courses of MB change my mindset and put my model on steroids.”
Eric · Quebec
The point
A spreadsheet can give you a projection.
It cannot decide how you think about that projection.
That is why All Models contains two parts.
The spreadsheets I use to turn data into probabilities, spreads, totals, fair odds and betting prices.
A Journey, the training library behind the process: expected value, market pricing, closing line value, model building, lineups, bankroll thinking and how to stop treating sports betting like a prediction contest.
The spreadsheets give you numbers.
A Journey teaches you how to think about those numbers.
A Journey
Almost six hours of this package are not model walkthroughs.
They are about the framework behind the models.
Long-time members may call this training the course, the Masterclass or A Journey. Today, A Journey is the education library included inside All Models.
The name changed over the years.
The purpose did not:
Learn to think about probabilities, prices and value instead of depending on someone else’s picks.
The count
Around four hours are practical model walkthroughs.
Just under six hours are broader betting education.
Together they give you both sides of the process: the tools, and the thinking that produced them.
The model library
2 spreadsheets · 3 videos · 49 min
My oldest model and still my favourite.
The current versions cover the full workflow, including the normal model and a manual copy/paste version if automatic data importing fails.
The model is built around the pieces I care about when pricing baseball: starting pitchers, handedness, lineups, bullpens and the market price.
1 spreadsheet · 1 video · 24 min
Projected score, spread and total for every game.
Paste two free stats tables, run the week and compare your number with the sportsbook market.
All tracked plays risked at 1 unit.
Explore NFL →1 spreadsheet · 1 video · 35 min
Goalies, projected goals, win probabilities, fair odds, totals, lineup inputs and adjustable weighting.
Across two tracked seasons. A losing win-loss record and a profitable result — because price matters more than simply finishing above .500.
Explore NHL →1 spreadsheet · 1 video · 12 min
A lineup-based NBA model built around projected spreads and totals, with player information incorporated into the process.
The sheet gives you an independent number to compare with the market.
3 spreadsheets · 3 videos · 19 min
Three different ways to price soccer matches.
Use them with different leagues and different data availability rather than trying to force one method onto every market.
1 spreadsheet · 2 videos · 25 min
A lineup-based spread model designed around a smaller basketball market.
One member reported running the sheet at a 61% win rate.
Member feedback on the WNBA sheet. One member's experience — not an indication of future performance.
1 spreadsheet · 1 video · 12 min
The simplest model in the package and the one I would probably hand a beginner first.
It was built for smaller and more exotic basketball leagues where sophisticated infrastructure is not always necessary.
This simple model once quadrupled my bankroll over a season in smaller leagues.
Members have also adapted the same basic framework to other sports and markets.
1 spreadsheet · 1 video · 29 min
A team-based spreads and totals concept.
Using a 9-point difference benchmark. Included to explore and develop further — it is not a model I currently run every day.
1 spreadsheet · 1 video · 32 min
A player-lineup-based model concept for CS2.
Included as a tested framework buyers can inspect and develop further.
The College Basketball and CS2 sheets are intentionally labelled idea models. They are included because the framework is useful to inspect, adapt and develop. I do not want to pretend every spreadsheet in this library is something I personally run every day.
Start here if you want
All Models also includes The Toolkit.
It is the beginner side of the library.
Instead of starting with one of my finished sport models, you build a simple betting model from scratch in Google Sheets and see the process from the inside.
You learn how to:
You do not need to become a programmer.
You need to understand what the spreadsheet is trying to do.
A Journey
Years later, many customers remember the change in thinking more than any individual formula.
A Journey covers:
The purpose is not to turn you into me.
It is to make you less dependent on anyone else.
The difference
A picks seller's product disappears the moment you stop following him.
A hot streak ends.
A Discord closes.
A subscription expires.
You are back where you started.
This works differently.
The spreadsheets end up in your own Google Drive.
You can open the formulas.
You can change assumptions.
You can update the data.
You can build on top of them.
And the training explains why the process works the way it does.
I have been betting since 1998 and building models since the early 2000s.
What changed my own betting was not finding a magical formula.
It was learning to stop asking: “Who will win?” and start asking: “What probability do I assign to this outcome, and what price am I being offered?”
That is the shift I am selling.
The scoreboard I care about
Short-term results are noisy.
You can make a bad bet and win.
You can make a good bet and lose.
That is why I have spent years tracking closing line value alongside results.
The closing price is not perfect.
But it gives you another way to judge whether you were repeatedly taking better prices than the market eventually settled on.
A Journey explains CLV.
The models give you a process for creating numbers you can compare with the market.
The bet trackers give you a place to record what happened afterward.
What people did with it
Some of these messages go back years. So does the work behind the models.
Griffin
Griffin did not write to me about a spreadsheet feature.
He wrote about money management, finding an edge and learning to play the numbers.
His message said:
“This course has changed my life.”
And:
“I was able to make nearly 6 figures this year because of the knowledge I learned from your course and modules.”
That is his experience, not a promise of what another buyer will earn. I cannot promise income. I cannot promise a winning season.
What I can give you is the same body of models and education he learned from.
Five different outcomes
One used the material to rethink his betting process.
One stopped buying picks and began producing his own numbers.
One improved models he already had.
One used the framework to build models in Asian baseball and basketball markets.
One eventually got hired by a bookmaker.
Don · North Carolina
Don found Underdog Chance after spending nearly $2,000 in one year buying sports picks.
He bought what he called the Masterclass.
A few weeks later, he wrote that he was producing his own sports picks instead of buying them.
His line says it better than I can:
“I will never buy sports pick again!”
Don was 65 when he wrote this.
He explicitly said he was not a computer expert.
The important part wasn’t becoming a programmer.
It was learning a repeatable process he could run himself.
Eric · Quebec
Not everyone starts as a beginner.
Eric already worked with his own models.
What changed for him was the thinking around them.
His messages said:
“For my parts the courses of MB change my mindset and put my model on steroids.”
And later:
“Without you, your masterclass and your support it would have been impossible.”
Brandon · Tokyo
01 · 2019
In 2019, Brandon emailed after reaching part 7 of the course.
He wrote:
“I am just through part 7 of your course and I love it thank you.”
Then:
“After I get through a bit more I will start making a Japanese baseball model myself.”
02 · Public
Later he publicly wrote:
“I got a lot of help from @underdogchance”
03 · His own markets
He went on to build and bet markets in Asia.
The ranking card shows:
and documented records including:
That is Brandon’s story.
It is not a promise that another buyer will reproduce his results.
What matters here is the progression:
Marek · Slovakia
Marek found my work while he was a student.
He had very little money and was trying to understand sports betting seriously rather than chase picks.
He learned how to build spreadsheets, create projections and think about the market.
Years later he sent me a message I did not expect.
In it he wrote that he had been hired by the biggest Slovak bookmaker, and that getting into sports betting and learning from me played a major role in that.
That is a completely different outcome from Griffin, Don, Eric or Brandon.
And that is the point.
The value of learning a framework is not limited to copying somebody else’s bets.
I cannot promise you any of those outcomes.
What I can give you is the same body of models, training and framework they had access to.
From outside the community
David Beaudoin · Professor MJ
“His vision of sports betting is exactly like mine: you absolutely need to mix statistical models with your own judgement in order to be successful in this business.”
“If you only watch games and don’t run any numbers, you are very likely to lose in the long run. If you only focus on numbers and you don’t take into account important factors like injuries and scheduling, you are also likely to run into some trouble.”
“Thanks MB for all the informative content related to sports betting, but more importantly, thanks for being a friend.”
Professional sports bettor
PhD in Statistics
Professor at Laval University in Quebec City
Professor MJ originally wrote this about my betting work and the earlier A Journey Betting Masterclass.
This is historical authority and methodology proof, not a claim that he reviewed the current All Models package.
David Beaudoin · Professor MJ
Read this before you buy
Not a picks service
You are buying models, spreadsheets and education. You still make the decision.
Real work
Some models take five minutes. Others take longer. Some require lineups, goalies, pitchers or manual data. The workload is small compared with building everything yourself, but it is not zero.
Google Sheets
The models live in Google Sheets. They work best on a laptop or desktop.
Two idea models
College Basketball and CS2 are included as idea models to explore and develop. I do not sell them as daily finished systems I personally run.
Results vary
A model can lose for a week, a month or a season. Buying this package does not remove variance.
Past performance
Historical results and customer outcomes are shown because they are real. They do not guarantee future performance.
Fit
This is for you if
Skip this if
Everything included
Lifetime access to everything included in this purchase.
No annual renewal.
No model subscription.
Bonus
300 complimentary AI Assistant credits.
These let you try the separate Underdog Chance AI Assistant on real games. Buying All Models does not start an AI subscription. Nothing renews automatically because of this purchase.
All Models
$997
One payment.
No subscription.
Lifetime access to everything included.
30-day money-back guarantee
You are not paying $997 for thirteen spreadsheet files.
You are paying for the years of work behind them, the finished models, the training, the trackers and the ability to take the process into your own hands.
After purchase
Your purchase is connected automatically to the email address you use at checkout.
Open My Library and enter the same email.
We send you a magic link.
Click it and All Models will be unlocked in your library.
From there you can:
Nothing to install.
No password to remember.
Questions getting started? mb@underdogchance.com
30-day guarantee
Open the models.
Watch the training.
Make some copies.
See whether this way of thinking and working fits how you want to bet.
If it isn’t for you, email me within 30 days and I’ll refund your purchase.
That’s it.
Questions
All Models is the current product. Older customers may refer to the education as the Masterclass, the course or A Journey. Today, A Journey is the training library inside All Models, together with the complete current model package.
No. You receive spreadsheets, models, trackers and education. The purpose is to produce and understand numbers of your own, not to wait for me to tell you what to bet.
13 spreadsheets, 22 videos, 9 hours 53 minutes of training, both bet trackers, the Toolkit, seven core sport models, the two idea models and A Journey.
No. The calculations are already built into the spreadsheets. A Journey and the walkthroughs explain how to use the models and how to think about the numbers.
You need to be willing to use it. If you can copy and paste data, select teams and enter sportsbook prices, you can use the models. The Toolkit also teaches the basics by building a simple model from scratch.
Some parts can automate and some workflows are deliberately manual. Lineups, goalies, pitchers and changing source websites mean that fully automatic is not always the most reliable solution. Each model's training explains its workflow.
You keep the spreadsheets and training. The model walkthroughs explain how to use or update the relevant data for future seasons. This is not an annual model subscription.
No. You receive the spreadsheets and the training needed to use them. I am not promising to personally maintain each buyer's individual copy every season.
College Basketball and CS2 are tested concepts included for buyers who want to inspect, adapt and develop additional models. They are not presented as daily finished models I currently run myself.
No. Historical performance is historical performance. A model can lose over any future sample, including an entire season.
They are complimentary credits for the separate Underdog Chance AI Assistant. Buying All Models does not start an AI subscription and nothing renews automatically.
Yes. Individual models have their own pages. All Models exists for someone who wants the complete library and A Journey together.
Use the same email at checkout and My Library. We send you a magic sign-in link, and your purchased library unlocks there.
Email me within 30 days of purchase and I'll refund you.
Email mb@underdogchance.com.
Last thing
Buy picks for another five years and you may still be waiting for someone else to tell you what to bet.
This is supposed to end differently.
The models end up in your Drive.
The training stays in your library.
The process becomes yours.
You can inspect it. Change it. Question it. Build on it.
The goal is not to make you dependent on another product.
It is to make you more capable of producing an answer of your own.
Stop following picks.
Start pricing bets.
$1,920 bought separately
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
In their words
Years of messages.
Different names for the same shift.
Older customers may call this the Masterclass, the course or A Journey.
That is because the education evolved over time.
Today that training sits inside All Models.
Richard
On A Journey and learning the process
Hugo Guedes · 2021
On the value of the training and models
Brian
On the models
Terry
On the training and model walkthroughs
Rafa
On changing how he viewed sports betting
David Baxter
Course buyer, now builds his own models
Florian
Member feedback