Weekly BUNDESLIGA projections, 17 – 19 February 2018

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

My Projected Odds:
Freiburg 2.42
Draw 4.08
Werder Bremen 2.93

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Freiburg 2.72
Draw 3.44
Werder Bremen 2.72

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Freiburg 0.73%
Draw -0.64%
Werder Bremen -0.42%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 79.02%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 56.10%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 33.72%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 18.13%

 

FC Cologne vs Hannover 96

My Projected Odds:
FC Cologne 3.10
Draw 3.75
Hannover 96 2.44

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
FC Cologne 2.11
Draw 3.59
Hannover 96 3.65

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
FC Cologne -2.88%
Draw -0.16%
Hannover 96 1.88%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 71.90%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 46.41%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 24.90%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 12.43%

 

Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich

My Projected Odds:
Wolfsburg 10.59
Draw 5.23
Bayern Munich 1.40

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Wolfsburg 6.44
Draw 4.32
Bayern Munich 1.34
MARGIN: 113.30%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Wolfsburg -0.72%
Draw -0.52%
Bayern Munich -1.26%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 72.74%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 47.48%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 25.82%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 17.02%

 

Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen

My Projected Odds:
Hamburger SV 3.93
Draw 3.99
Bayer Leverkusen 2.02

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Hamburger SV 3.96
Draw 3.58
Bayer Leverkusen 2.02
MARGIN: 102.69%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Hamburger SV 0.03%
Draw -0.40%
Bayer Leverkusen 0.00%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 74.27%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 49.48%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 27.55%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 14.88%

 

Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim

My Projected Odds:
Schalke 04 1.84
Draw 4.87
Hoffenheim 3.98

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Schalke 04 1.91
Draw 3.31
Hoffenheim 3.29
MARGIN: 112.96%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Schalke 04 0.42%
Draw -1.39%
Hoffenheim -0.76%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 87.60%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 70.03%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 48.84%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 30.16%

 

Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart

My Projected Odds:
Augsburg 1.99
Draw 4.10
VfB Stuttgart 3.94

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Augsburg 1.87
Draw 3.19
VfB Stuttgart 3.56
MARGIN: 112.91%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Augsburg -0.70%
Draw -1.01%
VfB Stuttgart -0.38%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 76.16%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 52.04%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 29.87%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 14.97%

 

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund

My Projected Odds:
Borussia M.Gladbach 3.35
Draw 3.86
Borussia Dortmund 2.26

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Borussia M.Gladbach 3.10
Draw 3.76
Borussia Dortmund 2.27
MARGIN: 102.91%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Borussia M.Gladbach -0.36%
Draw -0.10%
Borussia Dortmund 0.04%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 73.66%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 48.68%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 26.86%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 13.96%

 

Eintracht Frankfurt vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

My Projected Odds:
Eintracht Frankfurt 3.39
Draw 4.04
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.19

Cloudbet Bitcoin Bookmaker
Eintracht Frankfurt 2.33
Draw 3.13
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.62
MARGIN: 113.04%

Value Report (10% adjusted Kelly):
Eintracht Frankfurt -2.35%
Draw -1.06%
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.23%

My goals scoring projections:
Probability of 1.5 goals or more 77.08%
Probability of 2.5 goals or more 53.32%
Probability of 3.5 goals or more 31.05%
Probability of 4.5 goals or more 16.99%

 

Good Luck!

 

NOTE: I will release the videos, where I will explain how to calculate your own percentages for any league you want. 

For more info, please contact me, of simply check membership plan and A Journey betting course on my site. 

Basketball Projected Lines and Picks – Saturday 17.2.2018

PROJECTIONS:

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
AUS
Adelaide -7 -8.5
180
184.5
Brisbane Bullets 7 8.5
JPN
Niigata Abirex -2.5 -2
166.5
164.5
Diamond Dolphins 2.5 2
JPN
Nishinomiya Storks 7 6
153.5
159
Kyoto Hannaryz -7 -6
JPN
Aisin Seahorses -11.5 -11.5
166
163
Toyama Grouses 11.5 11.5
JPN
Hitachi SunRockers 14.5 3.5
133
140
Okinawa GK -14.5 -3.5
JPN
Tochigi Brex
Shimane SM
JPN
Chiba Jets
Toyota Alvark
JPN
Brave Thunders
Levanga Hokkaido
JPN
Sanen Neophoenix
Yokohama BC
JPN
Shiga L-Stars
Osaka Evessa
KOR
Goyang Orions
Wonju Dongu Promy
KOR
Changwon LG Sakers
Jeonju KCC Egis
BRA
Flamengo
Paschoalotto/Bauru
BRA
SKY/Basquete Cearense
Campo Mourão
BRA
EC Vitoria BA
Paulistano/Unimed
DEN
Bakken Bears
Randers
FIN
Kobrat
Kauhajoki Karhu
FIN
Pyrintö
Kataja
ISR
Hapoel Gilboa Galil
Hapoel Tel Aviv
ITA B
Latina
Roma
ITA B
Trapani
Casale Monferrato
NOR
Frøya
Nidaros Jets
NOR
Centrum Tigers
Fyllingen
SPA B
Araberri
Ourense
SPA B
Breogán
Melilla
SPA B
Peñas Huesca
Amics Castelló
SPA B
Oviedo
Valladolid
SWE
Södertälje Kings
Luleå
SUI
Lugano Tigers
Massagno
SUI
Lions de Genève
Winterthur
SUI
Fribourg Olympic
Boncourt
SUI
Riviera Lakers
Monthey
SUI
Union Neuchâtel
Swiss Central
BBL
Bristol Flyers
Worcester Wolves

BETS:

 

Date Game League Sport Bet Odds
17/2/2018 Hitachi SunRockers – Ryuku Okinawa GK JPN basketball Ryuku Okinawa GK -3.5 1.952
17/2/2018 Shiga L-Stars – Osaka Evessa JPN basketball Osaka Evessa +2.5 1.925
17/2/2018 Universo/Salvador – Paulistano BRA basketball Universo/Salvador +4 1.884
17/2/2018 Bakken Bears – Randers DEN basketball Randers +17 1.884
17/2/2018 Kobrat – Kauhajoki Karhu FIN basketball Kauhajoki Karhu -7.5 1.925
17/2/2018 Latina – Roma ITA B basketball Roma +5 1.884
17/2/2018 Bristol Flyers – Worcester Wolves BBL basketball Worcester Wolves -1.5 1.97

Basketball Projected Lines and Picks – February 16, 2018

PROJECTED LINES:

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
AUS
NZ Breakers -5.5 -8
174.5
175.5
Illawarra 5.5 8
AUS
Melbourne -5 -5
156
165.5
Perth 5 5
JPN
Brave Thunders -6.5 -10
165.5
161.5
Levanga Hokkaido 6.5 10
JPN
Nishinomiya Storks 6.5 6.5
152.5
158
Kyoto Hannaryz -6.5 -6.5
JPN
Hitachi SunRockers 13.5 3.5
135
140
Okinawa GK -13.5 -3.5
KOR
Seoul Thunders
Anyang KGC
KOR
Incheon Elephants
Seoul SK Knights
AUT
Traiskirchen Lions
Flyers Wels
BRA
Pinheiros/SKY
AABJ Joinville
BRA
Botafogo FR
CR Vasco da Gama
BRA
Mogi das Cruzes
Caxias do Sul
DEN
Stevnsgade
Bakken Bears
FIN
Helsinki Seagulls
Kouvot
GER
Jena
Bamberg
GER
Würzburg
Rockets
MEX
Correcaminos
Santos
MEX
Aguacateros de Mic…
Abejas de Guanajuato
MEX
Toros
Fuerza Regia
MEX
Libertadores
Panteras
SPA B
Clavijo
Cáceres
SPA B
Coruña
Prat
SWE
Borås
Uppsala
SWE
Nässjö
Jämtland
SWE
Umeå
Norrköping Dolphins
BBL
Worcester Wolves
Glasgow Rocks
BBL
Leeds Force
Sheffield Sharks
BBL
Surrey Scorchers
Manchester Giants

BETS:

Date Game League Sport Bet Odds
16/2/2018 Hitachi Sunrockers Tokyo – Ryukyu BRA basketball Ryuku (Okinava GK) -3.5 1.925
16/2/2018 Traiskirchen Lions – Flyers Wels AUT basketball Over 159 1.943
16/2/2018 Helsinki Seagulls – Kouvot FIN basketball Under 170 1.892
16/2/2018 Borås – Uppsala SWE basketball Under 157 1.909
16/2/2018 Leeds Force – Sheffield Sharks BBL basketball Over 166.5 1.92
16/2/2018 Surrey Scorchers – Manchester Giants BBL basketball Surrey Scorchers -15 1.925

NBA Projected Lines and Picks – February 15, 2018

PROJECTIONS

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
209.5
Denver Nuggets 3.5
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5
221
Los Angeles Lakers 9.5

Basketball projected lines and Picks – February 15, 2018

PROJECTIONS:

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
AUS
Brisbane Bullets -4.5 1
181
174
Sydney 4.5 -1
KOR
Busan KT Sonicboom -2 2
161
166.5
Changwon LG Sakers 2 -2
KOR (w)
Blueminx -10 -10.5
143.5
143.5
Winnus 10 10.5
BRA
Minas 10.5 5.5
157.5
153.5
Paschoalotto/Bauru -10.5 -5.5
BRA
EC Vitoria BA -17.5 -10.5
148.5
150
Campo Mourão 17.5 10.5
BRA
SKY/Basquete Cearense
Paulistano/Unimed
BRA
Hermes Analitica
Split
DEN
Copenhagen Wolfpack
Svendborg Rabbits
EST
Tartu
Valga
FRA B
Rouen
Aix Maurienne
GRE
Kymis
PAOK
NOR
Kongsberg Miners
Ammerud
VTB
Kalev
Nizhny Novgorod
VTB
Zenit
Khimki

BETS:

Date Game League Sport Bet Odds
15/2/2018 Universo/Salvador – Campo Mourao BRA basketball Universo/Salvador -10.5 1.869
15/2/2018 Basquete Cearen – Paulistano BRA basketball Basquete Cearen +9 1.9
15/2/2018 Hermes Analitica – Split CRO basketball Under 156.5 1.909

NBA Projected Lines and Picks – February 14th, 2018

PROJECTED LINES:

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers -3 -6.5
203.5
200.5
Miami Heat 3 6.5
NBA
Detroit Pistons -4.5 -8
208.5
209
Atlanta Hawks 4.5 8
NBA
Orlando Magic
Charlotte Hornets
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
Indiana Pacers
NBA
New York Knicks
Washington Wizards
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
Los Angeles Lakers
NBA
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors
NBA
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Clippers
NBA
Houston Rockets
Sacramento Kings
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA
Utah Jazz
Phoenix Suns
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
Golden State Warriors

 

BETS:

No Bets today

Basketball Projected Lines and Picks – Wednesday 14, 2018

Projected lines:

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
KOR
Wonju Dongu Promy -6.5 -5
171
172
Seoul Thunders 6.5 5
KOR
Anyang KGC 0 3.5
163
173
Incheon Elephants 0 -3.5
KOR (w)
KB Stars 4 3.5
129
136.5
Woori Hansae -4 -3.5
BRA
Pinheiros/SKY 1.5 -7
154
153
Caxias do Sul -1.5 7
BRA
Liga Sorocabana -11.5 -4
142
144.5
AABJ Joinville 11.5 4
CZE
Kolín
Pardubice
CZE
Opava
Ústí nad Labem
CZE
Děčín
Ostrava
CZE
USK Praha
Tuři Svitavy
CZE
Nymburk
Jindřichův Hradec
CZE
Olomoucko
Brno
DEN
Horsens
Bakken Bears
DEN
Hørsholm 79ers
Randers
EST
Pärnu
Tallinna Kalev
FIN
Nokia
Kauhajoki Karhu
FIN
Kataja
Kobrat
FIN
Kouvot
Espoo United
GER
Berlin
Oldenburg
GER
Bayreuth
Bonn
GER
Ulm
Skyliners Frankfurt
GER
Ludwigsburg
Mitteldeutscher BC
GER
Tigers Tübingen
Bremerhaven
GER
Bayern München
Göttingen
GRE
Panathinaikos
Larissas Faros
GRE
Aris
Lavrio
GRE
Kolossos
Koroivos
GRE
Promitheas
Panionios
VTB
Enisey
Avtodor
VTB
Lokomotiv Kuban
CSKA Moskva
SUI
Starwings
Lions de Genève

BETS:

Date Game League Sport Bet Odds
14/2/2018 Anyang KGC – Incheon Elephants KOR basketball Under 173 1.943
14/2/2018 Pinheiros/SKY – Caxias do Sul BRA basketball Caxias do Sul +7 1.909
14/2/2018 Liga Sorocabana – AABJ Joinville BRA basketball Liga Sorocabana -4.5 1.925
14/2/2018 Olomoucko – Brno CZE basketball Brno +19.5 1.869
14/2/2018 Berlin – Oldenburg GER basketball Berlin -7.5 1.909
14/2/2018 Bayreuth – Bonn GER basketball Under 168 1.934
14/2/2018 Ulm – Skyliners Frankfurt GER basketball Under 156 1.961
14/2/2018 Ludwigsburg – Mitteldeutscher BC GER basketball Ludwigsburg -14.5 1.943
14/2/2018 Promitheas – Panionios GRE basketball Under 159 1.943

NBA projections and picks – February 13, 2018

PROJECTIONS:

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
NBA
Toronto Raptors -9 -7.5
203
206
Miami Heat 9 7.5
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 -7.5
210
208
Atlanta Hawks 3.5 7.5
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
Houston Rockets
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
Sacramento Kings
NBA
Denver Nuggets
San Antonio Spurs

BETS:

Date Game League Sport Bet Odds
13/2/2018 San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets NBA basket Under 209.5 1.9

The difference between so-called sports picks and projections

​Let’s say, that I tell you: “Mercedes is a very good car. Buy a Mercedes for $40.000”

You decide that you will buy this car. But when you want to buy a Mercedes, the price jumped to $46.000. Will you buy it or not?
You don’t know, because you don’t know the true value of Mercedes. And I also didn’t tell you the true value, because I simply don’t know how to estimate the true value of this car.
THIS WAS A PICK
The basic concept in our life, when it comes to money is that we buy things for low price or at least for fair price. It is the same with all kind of investments (buy low, sell high), it is the same concept when you go to a store or a market,…and it is the same concept when it comes to a sports betting.
If you always buy things, that are overpriced, you will lose money. Right?
Making a pick is very easy. Anyone can make a pick and I would never pay for a pick.

Example of picks:
  • ​Bet on Lakers -7 (1 unit)
  • Bet on Boston Red Sox +124 (3 units)
  • Bet on Real Madrid @1.78 (1.5 units)
The problem is…
that those prices are changing all the time in sports betting. I don’t believe, that Mercedes price is changing every 10 minutes, but in sports betting and some other investments, especially speculative, the prices are changing all the time.
To make money, you need to buy things for the right price. If you buy high and sell low, you lose. If you buy low and sell high, you win.
I hope that you understand the concept of a value and how important is to bet on the right price (if not – sign up for my 7 day free online betting course, where I talk about those things).
What will you do, if you follow someone and you get those prices:
  • ​Bookmaker: Lakers -8
  • Bookmaker: Boston Red Sox +110
  • Bookmaker: Real Madrid @1.97
Will you bet on
  • ​Lakers -8?
  • Boston +110?
  • Real Madrid at 1.97 only 1.5 units, despite the price went up?
You don’t know, because you didn’t have the projections or if you like you didn’t have the winning percentages to see what to bet, when to bet and how much to bet.
And here we come to PROJECTIONS.
Projections will tell you the price. Projections will tell you your winning percentages, your spreads and your totals. The basic concept to win at sports betting is to bet on games, where you give your team better winning percentage than bookmaker. I hope you agree with me. Those projections are made independently and without bookmakers. When I make projections for NBA for example, I estimate my own spreads and then later bookmakers throw out their lines. I simply compare my prices with their.
Example of projections:
  • ​Lakers -12
  • Boston +160
  • Real Madrid 1.30
The projections will tell you this:
  • ​Play Lakers if you get Lakers -11 or better (-10, -9, -8,…depends on betting model and method)
  • Play Boston for the price of +161 or more (depends on the method)
  • Play Real Madrid for the price of 1.31 or better
In other words (if we take Boston example):
  • ​I will play Boston only if someone (bookmaker) will pay me at least $160 for my every risked $100.
  • Or for example….I will buy a Mercedes only if the price will be $41.345 or less
If the bookmaker will pay me only $110 (the odds of +110), I will not bet on it, because I will pay too much. Paying too much all the time = losing money.
Betting on the wrong price = losing money.
PICKS WITHOUT PROJECTIONS ARE USELESS
When I started betting I must say, that I understood the concept pretty quickly. The biggest problem was how to estimate the odds, how to calculate winning percentages. I already understood, that betting on the right price is the key concept. But I also knew, that creating some imaginary price in my head is also not the right way.
Bookmakers were smarter and smarter and even those local bookmakers didn’t make any mistakes more. The prices were sharper and sharper and I was trying to find the way how to estimate my own odds and winning percentages.
Of course this can not be made in your head without any formulas or without betting model. I hope we all agree with this. Owners of sportsbooks don’t wake up in the morning and take a paper and say: “ok, Lakers will be -3, Celtics will be -4,…or maybe -4.5….let it be -3.5…”

So, if I have pick from someone: “Boston +124”, I simply don’t know what to do with this. It is almost not possible, that the price is the same.
I also don’t know if I should buy a Mercedes for $46.000. Right?
And the pick without projection is almost useless. Betting without previously projecting the winning percentages, is nothing else than – guessing. Some handicappers can guess well, but at the end of the day, if you follow them, you will not know when you should bet the game or when you should stay away.
  • PICKS will tell us nothing else, than what to bet 
  • PROJECTIONS will tell us for which price you should bet something
And the price is the key! 
Cheers!
MB
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Basketball Projected Lines and Picks – February 13, 2018

PROJECTED LINES

Games Spreads Totals
League Home vs Away My Lines Bookie Lines My Totals Bookie Totals
KOR
Seoul SK Knights -14 -8
162.5
169
Busan KT Sonicboom 14 8
KOR
Ulsan Mobis Phoebus -2.5 -6
158.5
170.5
Goyang Orions 2.5 6
DEN
Stevnsgade 9.5 13.5
167.5
165
Næstved -9.5 -13.5
FIN
KTP 4.5 4.5
170
167.5
Helsinki Seagulls -4.5 -4.5
FRA B
STB Le Havre 0 -5.5
150.5
153
Charleville Mézières 0 5.5
GRE
Rethymno -1.5 3.5
154.5
156.5
AEK Athens 1.5 -3.5
GRE
Trikala 16.5 32.5
134
152.5
Olympiakos Piraeus -16.5 -32.5
SWE
Södertälje Kings -10.5 -8.5
161.5
162.5
Umeå 10.5 8.5
SWE
Jämtland -4.5 -3
151
156.5
Borås 4.5 3
SWE
Norrköping Dolphins -9.5 -11.5
163.5
155.5
Uppsala 9.5 11.5
MEX
Abejas de Guanajuato -0.5 -3.5
189
175.5
Libertadores 0.5 3.5
SVN
Šentjur -5 -6.5
145
151
Rogaška 5 6.5
SVN
Šenčur 0.5 -4.5
148.5
153.5
Ilirija -0.5 4.5
SVN
Zlatorog Laško 1.5 1
151.5
154.5
Hopsi Polzela -1.5 -1
SVN
Primorska -3 -4
159
156.5
Krka 3 4

BETS:

Date Game League Sport Bet Odds
13/2/2018 Ulsan Mobis Phoebus – Goyang Orions KOR basketball Under 170.5 1.943
13/2/2018 Trikala – Olympiakos Piraeus GRE basketball Triakala +33 1.925
13/2/2018 Trikala – Olympiakos Piraeus GRE basketball Under 152.5 1.917
13/2/2018 Abejas de Guanajuato – Libertadores MEX basketball Over 175.5 1.952