Beat The Close
You already have your number. Now watch the market and decide whether it ever gives you a price worth taking.
You are not predicting where the line goes next.
You are waiting for the market to offer a price better than your own.
What beating the close means
Say you take +110 and the game closes +100.
The market moved toward your price after you bet.
The bet can still lose. That does not change the price you got.
Do it once and it may be luck. Do it consistently over a large sample and it becomes useful evidence about your process.
More advanced bettors often measure CLV against vig-free closing prices. That is a refinement of the same idea.
Finished models for the sports you already follow.
See the models