The Growth Curve
A +3% edge sounds smooth on paper. Living through one is different.
This is the version everyone likes to imagine.
Starting bankroll
$5,000
True edge
+3.0%
Bets
520 · 52 wks
Expected finish
$6,830
That line is a mathematical expectation, not growth you are owed.
1%2%5%
Your edge did not changeYour risk did.
The smooth curve isn’t false.
It is the mathematical expectation.
What it hides is the range of paths that can lead there.
You do not experience an average. You experience one sequence of wins and losses.
Edge determines direction. Variance determines the ride.
Stake size determines how violent that ride becomes.
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