There are three types of sports bettors: the Fan, the Follower and the Pricer. The Fan bets on what he loves. The Follower bets on what someone else tells him. The Pricer makes his own number first and bets only when the price beats it. The first two can win for a week or even a season, but only the Pricer has a real reason to win over hundreds of bets, because he is the only one who checks whether the price is right. This is not a personality you are born with. It is a habit, and habits can be changed.
I have seen all three up close, including in my own betting. Below is how to tell which one you are, what each type costs you, and how to move to the third.
What are the 3 types of sports bettors?
Here is the short version:
| Type | What decides the bet | The question they ask | Long-term outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Fan | Team, story, feeling | "Who will win?" | Pays too much for the teams he loves |
| The Follower | Someone else's pick | "Who do you like tonight?" | Gets the pick, but not the price |
| The Pricer | His own probability against the price | "Is this price good?" | The only one with an edge he can measure |
Most bettors are a mix. You can be a Pricer on the NBA and a Fan every time your own team plays. The type that matters is the one that places the bet.
What does a Fan bettor look like?
The Fan watches every game. He knows the players, the injuries and the coach's habits. His problem is not a lack of knowledge. His problem is that love makes every price look fair.
Say his team is -150 (decimal 1.67). That price means a 60% chance to win. If an honest number gives the team 55%, the fair price is about -122 (1.82). At -150, every $100 he bets loses about $8.33 on average. He never sees it, because he is asking who will win, not what the win costs.
I learned this the hard way. By 2003 I was losing betting soccer, the sport I played and the sport my father kept goal in. I knew too much and cared too much. So I moved to baseball on purpose. I wanted three things: a market big enough to bet real money into, a deep statistical history, and no emotional attachment, because I knew nothing about the sport. I learned baseball by playing MLB video games. It worked well enough that I was later invited into private betting groups as the baseball specialist, and the reason it worked was simple: I had no team to defend.
I wrote more about that switch in why I stopped watching games to bet on them.
What does a Follower bettor look like?
The Follower takes picks from tipsters, friends, Discord groups or social posts. He is usually not lazy. He is busy, and a pick feels like a shortcut.
The problem is that a pick without a price is half a bet. The same underdog can be a good bet at +140 (2.40) and a bad bet at +110 (2.10). The pick says "this team". It does not say "only at this price or better". By the time the Follower bets, the line has often moved and he gets the worse number.
The second problem is that he cannot tell skill from luck. A tipster who hits 60% over 30 bets may just be lucky. At standard -110 (1.91) odds you need 52.38% just to break even, and win rate alone tells you very little about whether someone is good. The lesson on why win rate alone means nothing shows this with real numbers.
What does a Pricer bettor look like?
The Pricer makes his own probability first, turns it into fair odds, and only then looks at the price.
Say his number gives an underdog a 45% chance. The fair price is about +122 (2.22). If the book offers +140 (2.40), he bets, and every $100 is worth about +$8 on average. If the book offers +110 (2.10), he passes, because that $100 is worth about -$5.50. Same team, same game, a different decision, because the price is different.
This is how I started. I compared my local bookie's lines against sharper online prices and bet only when the local price was better. I did not need to know who would win. I needed to know when the price was wrong.
The Pricer also checks his work in a way the other two cannot. He tracks closing line value: did he get a better price than the market's final price? When I tracked my NFL model's bets one by one against Pinnacle's closing line, the closing line value came out at +3.81% one season and +4.25% in the 2025/26 snapshot. That is the kind of number that tells you a process is real long before the win-loss record does.
Which type of bettor are you?
Answer these four questions about your last ten bets:
- Did you write down your own probability before you looked at the odds?
- Did you know the fair odds for that probability?
- Would you have passed if the price had been 20 cents worse?
- Do you track whether you beat the closing line, not only whether you won?
If you answered no to the first two, you are a Fan or a Follower on those bets. That is normal. It is also fixable.
Can a Fan or a Follower become a Pricer?
Yes. It starts with one habit: write your number down before you look at the odds. Everything else follows from that.
Here is the order I would use:
- Pick one sport and one market, for example NFL sides or MLB moneylines.
- Build a simple model in a spreadsheet that gives you a probability. It does not need to be complex. Averages and a home/away adjustment are a fine start, and you can see what that looks like in my betting models.
- Turn your probability into fair odds with the fair odds calculator.
- Bet only when the price beats your fair odds by a clear margin, and pass on everything else.
- Track closing line value, not just wins. The closing line value lesson shows you how.
One more thing changes the type more than any spreadsheet: pressure. A bettor who needs to win this week thinks and acts differently from one who can wait for the right price. Bet an amount you can afford to wait with, and the Pricer habit gets much easier.
If you want to do the same work faster, the AI Betting Assistant runs the same logic for you: it starts from a number and compares it to the price. Spreadsheets are where you learn why it works. The AI tool is where you do it quickly.
Frequently asked questions
What is the most common type of sports bettor?
The most common type is a mix of Fan and Follower. Most recreational bettors bet on teams they like and add picks they heard from someone else. Very few write down their own probability before they look at the odds. That is why the Pricer has an advantage: he is competing in a market where most of the money is placed on feeling and on other people's opinions. You do not need to be a genius to beat that kind of money over time. You need a number, a price, and the discipline to pass when the price is wrong.
Can you win long term by following picks?
You can only win long term with picks if the price you get is better than the fair price, and without your own number you cannot know that. A good pick at a bad price is still a bad bet. If you follow someone, ask for the price they bet at and the price they would stop betting at. If you cannot get that, you are trusting a result, not a process. A better use of picks is as a second opinion: compare them to your own fair odds and only act when both agree and the price is still good.
Do I need to be good at math to become a Pricer?
No, you need to be comfortable with percentages and simple division. Turning a probability into fair odds is one formula, and a spreadsheet does it for you. For example, a 55% chance becomes fair decimal odds of 1 divided by 0.55, which is 1.82, or about -122 in American odds. The harder part is not the math. It is the habit of writing your number down first and then accepting the result, even when it tells you to pass on a game you wanted to bet.
Is it bad to bet on my favorite team?
It is not bad if the price beats your own number, but it is the hardest market to be honest in. Your feelings push your probability up, so your "fair" price ends up too generous. A simple test: write your probability for your team's game before you check the odds, then do the same for a game you do not care about. If your own team always comes out as value, your number is not neutral. Many bettors solve this by not betting their own team at all.
How do I know if I am becoming a Pricer?
You know you are becoming a Pricer when you pass on more bets than you place and you beat the closing line more often than not. Winning a few bets is not proof, because anyone can win a few bets. Beating the closing price is a better sign, because it means you are getting numbers the market later agrees with. You will also notice you stop asking "who do you like?" and start asking "what price do you have?" That change in the question is the change in the type.
How many bets do I need before I can judge my results?
You need hundreds of bets, not dozens, before your win-loss record means much. Over 30 or 50 bets, luck can make a bad bettor look good and a good bettor look bad. That is why Pricers watch closing line value, which gives a useful signal much earlier. The sample size lesson lets you see how much results swing over small samples. Until you have a large sample, judge yourself on the process: did you have a number, did you get a good price, and did you stick to your staking plan?
Want the tools to become a Pricer?
The fastest way to stop being a Fan or a Follower is to have your own number in front of you before every bet. That is what The Ultimate Modern Bettor's Toolkit gives you.
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MB built Underdog Chance around one idea: make your own number first, then bet only when the price beats it. Over the last 20+ years his simple, probability-based Google Sheets models have helped thousands of bettors stop following picks and start pricing bets for themselves.
Last updated: November 6, 2026