October 7, 2026NBA
How to Build an NBA Betting Model: The Complete Framework
Build an NBA betting model in Google Sheets with free stats: pace, efficiency, home court, rest, a probability, and a rule for when a gap is worth a bet.
Blog
Thinking in probabilities, prices and systems.
Notes on sports betting, modeling, markets, decision-making and the business around it.
October 3, 2026MLB
MLB Playoffs: Why Your Model Should Ignore "Momentum"
Hot teams feel safe to bet in October. Here is why momentum adds almost nothing to an MLB playoff price, and what your model should change instead.
October 3, 2026Mindset
Why I Stopped Watching Games to Bet on Them
Watching the games you bet on feels like research. It adds no information and costs you sleep and judgment. Here is what I did with the time instead.
October 3, 2026Sportsbooks
Bovada vs DraftKings vs FanDuel: The Prices Are the Same. Here Is What Differs
I measured the margin on this week's NFL spreads at Bovada, DraftKings and FanDuel. The prices are almost equal. Here is what really differs.
September 25, 2026
How to Build a Simple NFL Betting Model in Google Sheets
Build a simple NFL betting model in Google Sheets with free stats: a projected score, your own spread and total, and a rule for when a gap is worth a bet.
September 23, 2026
20 Questions to Ask Before You Buy Sports Picks
Before you pay for sports picks, ask these 20 questions. Most sellers cannot answer them. Here is what a real record looks like and how to check it.
September 19, 2026
Closing Line Value Explained: The Number That Tells You If Your Betting Actually Works
Closing line value predicts long-term betting results better than win rate. How to calculate it, what a real number looks like, and how to track it.
September 19, 2026NFL
NFL Line Movement Explained: What a Moving Number Actually Tells You
A moving betting line is the market updating its price. Here is how to tell whether money or information caused it, and what to do about it.