October 28, 2026NHL
How to Build an NHL Betting Model From Scratch
Build an NHL betting model in Google Sheets with free stats: expected goals, home ice, the starting goalie, a Poisson win probability and when to bet.
Blog
Thinking in probabilities, prices and systems.
Notes on sports betting, modeling, markets, decision-making and the business around it.
October 23, 2026Pricing Over Picks
Why "Best Bets" Articles Are Almost Always Wrong
Best bets articles give you a side but not a price, and the same pick can be +EV at -110 and -EV at -140. How to check any best bet yourself.
October 21, 2026Sportsbooks
Bovada Review: What Its Prices Look Like When You Measure the Margin
Is Bovada legit? I measured its margin on four markets: 4.10% on average. Plus payout times, the welcome bonus and the states it does not accept.
October 16, 2026NFL
NFL Trade Deadline: Does It Actually Move Betting Lines?
Most NFL deadline trades move a spread by a point or less. Quarterback trades are the exception. How to price a trade in your own model, with the math.
October 14, 2026AI Betting
What ChatGPT Gets Wrong When It Builds You a Betting Model
ChatGPT builds betting models that look right and price wrong. The five mistakes it makes, with the numbers, and how to fix each one in Google Sheets.
October 9, 2026Betting Math
Devigging Explained: How to Find the Bookmaker's True Price
Devigging removes the bookmaker's margin from a line to show its true price. The formula, worked examples in both odds formats and a Google Sheets setup.
October 7, 2026NBA
How to Build an NBA Betting Model: The Complete Framework
Build an NBA betting model in Google Sheets with free stats: pace, efficiency, home court, rest, a probability, and a rule for when a gap is worth a bet.
October 3, 2026MLB
MLB Playoffs: Why Your Model Should Ignore "Momentum"
Hot teams feel safe to bet in October. Here is why momentum adds almost nothing to an MLB playoff price, and what your model should change instead.
October 3, 2026Mindset
Why I Stopped Watching Games to Bet on Them
Watching the games you bet on feels like research. It adds no information and costs you sleep and judgment. Here is what I did with the time instead.
October 3, 2026Sportsbooks
Bovada vs DraftKings vs FanDuel: The Prices Are the Same. Here Is What Differs
I measured the margin on this week's NFL spreads at Bovada, DraftKings and FanDuel. The prices are almost equal. Here is what really differs.
September 25, 2026
How to Build a Simple NFL Betting Model in Google Sheets
Build a simple NFL betting model in Google Sheets with free stats: a projected score, your own spread and total, and a rule for when a gap is worth a bet.
September 23, 2026
20 Questions to Ask Before You Buy Sports Picks
Before you pay for sports picks, ask these 20 questions. Most sellers cannot answer them. Here is what a real record looks like and how to check it.
September 19, 2026
Closing Line Value Explained: The Number That Tells You If Your Betting Actually Works
Closing line value predicts long-term betting results better than win rate. How to calculate it, what a real number looks like, and how to track it.
September 19, 2026NFL
NFL Line Movement Explained: What a Moving Number Actually Tells You
A moving betting line is the market updating its price. Here is how to tell whether money or information caused it, and what to do about it.