There’s always a buzz when an underdog horse crosses the line first. Seeing an outsider overtake the favourites and surprise everyone is a unique part of the sport.
But is backing outsiders more than just hoping for a surprise? Many punters are curious whether chasing bigger odds can actually be worthwhile.
While the idea of a big return is tempting, and stories of unexpected wins pop up now and then, including some memorable Grand National outside winners. Let’s break it down so you can judge if this betting style might suit you.
What is an “outsider”?
An “outsider” is a horse the bookmakers don’t rate highly, so you’ll see much bigger odds, often starting at prices like 20/1, 33/1 or even higher. This signals that the odds-makers think the horse is very unlikely to win, based on form, past performance, or the level of competition in the race.
If you’d like a quick recap, just remember: an outsider is any runner that most punters wouldn’t expect to finish first, though now and again, they certainly pull off a shock.
Why backing an outsider is tempting
The main draw is those high odds. With just a small bet, the possible payouts can be huge compared to safer options. That dream of getting things right when almost everyone else doubts your pick adds another layer of excitement.
It’s easy to think about the boost of picking a winner few others saw coming. Stories of punters landing big wins on outsiders only help fuel the attraction.
Of course, for many, it isn’t just about the prize; following an outsider makes watching the race even more engaging and can add some extra thrill right to the last stride.
So, what about the real chances of these bets coming in? That’s explored in the next section.
Statistical realities
While every season has its surprises, most races are won by favourites or those near them in the betting. Outsiders do reach the winning post first from time to time, but not regularly.
There’s a reason bookmakers attach such big odds to outsiders. They base prices on all the information at hand, including previous results, how the horse handles current conditions, and what the competition is like. The bigger the odds, the less likely success is considered.
Checking the statistics over a full season, you’ll see only a small number of outsiders manage to win. This explains why potential payouts are high, but also why you need to weigh the risk each time you’re tempted by a long price.
If you’re thinking about whether it’s worth betting on these odds, it helps to understand how often these wins actually come along. Let’s examine value versus frequency.
Value vs. frequency
It’s useful to separate value and frequency when betting on outsiders. As covered just above, while the possible wins are large, you’ll go longer between collecting returns.
Backing favourites gives you the opposite; much smaller payouts, but a better chance of your horse finishing in front. If you’re the sort who prefers more regular wins, this approach may suit you.
Some enjoy chasing value by sticking with the higher-priced runners, while others appreciate the steadier progress of following favourites. The right approach comes down to personal preferences and betting habits, as already mentioned in the previous sections.
Where you focus will depend on whether you’d rather aim for occasional big wins or prefer more frequent, modest ones. Whichever method you pick, make sure you stay within your set budget.
When outsiders make sense
There are moments when putting your money on an outsider could be worth considering. For example, keep an eye on any changes highlighted earlier, such as late shifts in weather, a change of jockey, or if the race takes place at a track where the outsider has gone well before.
Certain events, like big-field handicaps or races with plenty of unraced horses, can sometimes throw up surprising winners. These situations can give outsiders a bit more of a chance.
You might also spot value if you notice a favourite with doubts hanging over their fitness or form; these are occasions when it may be sensible to take a closer look at runners others have overlooked.
As mentioned previously, if you believe the outsider’s odds don’t reflect its true chances, there’s nothing wrong with considering a well-judged bet. Always factor in the risk and only ever wager amounts you are happy to lose.
If you’re weighing up betting on outsiders, a smart approach, a keen eye for value, and control over your spending are your best tools. It’s never a guaranteed win, however, understanding when and why to take a chance can help you make better choices at the track or online.