LEARN / YOUR RESULTS ARE LYING TO YOU · 08

The Losing Streak

You just lost seven in a row. Is your model broken, or is this simply what betting looks like? Check the math before you change anything.

ONE BETTOR · 1,000 BETS · $100 AT -110 (1.91) · WINS 55%

Make a guess.

This bettor wins 55% of his bets at -110. That is a real +5% edge. At $100 a bet he is expected to make about $5,000 over 1,000 bets.

Across those 1,000 bets, what is the longest losing streak he will hit?

Longest losing streak

MY GUESS: 4 IN A ROW

Now use your own numbers.

AmericanDecimal

Average price you take-110

True edge

YOU WIN 55.0% OF YOUR BETS · YOU LOSE 45.0%

Number of bets

TYPICAL LONGEST LOSING STREAK IN 1,000 BETS

8 IN A ROW

1 in 10 bettors

10 or more

1 in 100 bettors

13 or more

HOW LIKELY IS EACH STREAK?

5 in a row

Next 5 all lose1.8% · 1 in 54

At least once in 1,000 bets>99.9%

6 in a row

Next 6 all lose0.8% · 1 in 120

At least once in 1,000 bets99.1%

7 in a row

Next 7 all lose0.4% · 1 in 268

At least once in 1,000 bets87.5%

8 in a rowTYPICAL

Next 8 all lose0.2% · 1 in 595

At least once in 1,000 bets60.4%

9 in a row

Next 9 all lose<0.1% · 1 in 1,322

At least once in 1,000 bets34.0%

10 in a row

Next 10 all lose<0.1% · 1 in 2,937

At least once in 1,000 bets17.0%

11 in a row

Next 11 all lose<0.1% · 1 in 6,526

At least once in 1,000 bets8.0%

12 in a row

Next 12 all lose<0.1% · 1 in 14,503

At least once in 1,000 bets3.7%

13 in a row

Next 13 all lose<0.1% · 1 in 32,228

At least once in 1,000 bets1.7%

14 in a row

Next 14 all lose<0.1% · 1 in 71,618

At least once in 1,000 bets0.8%

15 in a row

Next 15 all lose<0.1% · 1 in 159,152

At least once in 1,000 bets0.3%

Losing the next 7 in a row is a 1 in 268 chance. But you do not get one attempt. Over 1,000 bets you get almost 1,000 attempts, so it shows up 87.5% of the time.

What that streak costs you.

UNIT SIZE (% OF BANKROLL PER BET)

Typical streak

-16% of bankroll

1 in 10 streak

-20% of bankroll

Flat stakes, counted against your starting bankroll. This is one streak, not your worst drawdown, which is usually deeper.

TRY THESE

Can a streak tell you if your edge is real?

No edge · wins 52.4%

8 in a row

+5% edge · wins 55%

8 in a row

+10% edge · wins 57.6%

7 in a row

A break-even bettor and a strong winning bettor hit almost the same losing streaks.

So a losing streak, on its own, tells you almost nothing about whether your edge is real.

A losing streak is not proof that something broke.

If you bet long enough, a long losing streak is not bad luck. It is going to happen.

The danger is what you do in the middle of it: bigger bets to win the money back, a new system, or quitting a model that was working.

The longer your average price, the longer the streaks. That is why underdog bettors need smaller units than favorite bettors with the same edge.

Know your worst streak before it arrives. Then size your bets so you are still there after it.

A streak is only one part of the picture. See what a full year of betting can look like with the same edge.

Play The Growth Curve →

These probabilities are exact for independent bets at one fixed price and win rate. Real betting mixes prices, so use them as a guide.

Build your first betting model from an empty spreadsheet.

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