WNBA Betting Model
I could give you a long sales pitch and pretend this has the same proof behind it as my NBA, NFL or MLB models.
It doesn’t.
I built the WNBA Model because customers asked for it, using the same lineup-based modelling framework behind my basketball work.
But I do not personally bet the WNBA, so I do not have seasons of my own tracked results to show you.
That matters.
And it is why this model costs $99 instead of $299 or $499.
What you do get is a finished Google Sheets model that:
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
The model
Look at the screenshot.
Three games.
Three model projections.
Three sportsbook lines.
And all three say:
NO BET.
That is not the spreadsheet failing.
That is the point.
The default qualification threshold is a 7-point difference between the model and the market.
If the gap is not large enough, you pass.
Most games should not become bets.
A look inside
This is the real spreadsheet and how I use it.
No simulated interface.
No black box.
Member experience
One customer sent me this without being asked.
“The WNBA sheet you created a few years back does very well. I play it with a 3 pt differential and it’s 21-13 thus far this season. Was 61% last year.”
Those are HIS numbers.
Not mine.
His tracking.
His betting.
His threshold.
I have not independently audited the record.
He also uses a 3-point differential rather than my default 7-point threshold, so he is running the model more aggressively than I would start.
That distinction matters.
The reason I like this testimonial is not because I can promise you 61%.
I cannot.
It is because he took the spreadsheet, changed a setting to fit his own process, and kept using it without needing me to send him picks.
How it works
Basketball is unusually sensitive to who is actually on the floor.
Five players.
Limited minutes.
One missing starter can materially change the game.
So the model starts with the lineup.
You choose the players expected to play.
The sheet assigns their expected share of minutes and contribution.
Those inputs feed the game projection.
From there the model produces:
Selectivity
The default threshold is deliberately selective.
If my projected spread is not at least 7 points away from the sportsbook line, the game does not qualify.
You can change that number.
The customer above uses 3 points.
That produces more bets.
I would start more selectively, track your own results, and only change the threshold once you have evidence from your own process.
Why I built it
The WNBA is not one of the sports I personally bet.
But the mechanics of a lineup-based basketball model carry over naturally.
So I adapted the framework and built a WNBA version for members who wanted one.
That is the complete story.
The work
This is not an automatic picks machine.
Before you use the projection, you need to tell the sheet who is expected to play.
Then:
Two walkthrough videos come with the model:
The limits
No tracked record from me
I do not personally bet the WNBA. The customer result on this page is customer-reported, not my record.
Spreads
This model is built primarily to project spreads. It is not a totals or player-props model.
Lineups matter
Bad lineup assumptions produce bad projections. You need to put the work in.
Lower-limit market
WNBA betting limits can be lower than major US men's sports depending on the sportsbook and market. If your goal is placing very large wagers, check the limits available to you before buying.
Google Sheets
Best used on a laptop or desktop.
No guaranteed results
A model creates numbers. It does not guarantee profits.
Fit
This is for you if:
Skip this if:
What you get
WNBA Model
Google Sheets lineup-based model.
Player lineups
Select the players expected to play.
Projected spread
Your number for every matchup.
Win probability / estimated odds
The supporting game projection.
Market comparison
Your spread next to the sportsbook.
Qualification threshold
Default 7-point filter, adjustable.
Two training videos
How to run the model. How to add more teams / maintain it.
American odds bet tracker
Track your bets in American odds.
Decimal odds bet tracker
Both trackers can record closing-line information.
Lifetime access
One payment. No annual renewal.
Small bonus
The Underdog Chance AI Assistant is a separate product.
The 50 credits let you try it on real games.
Buying the WNBA Model does not start an AI subscription.
Nothing renews automatically.
Credits are added manually after purchase.
The price
One payment.
Lifetime access.
Why $99?
Because there is a difference between:
a model I have personally tracked for hundreds of bets
and
a model I built but do not personally bet.
I would rather price that difference honestly than pretend it does not exist.
30-day money-back guarantee
Buying several sports? All Models is $997 and includes the complete model library plus A Journey training.
See all models →Delivery
Your access is attached to the email you use at checkout.
Go to My Library.
Enter that same email.
We send you a magic sign-in link.
Click it and the WNBA content unlocks.
Inside:
Copy the Google Sheet into your own Drive.
No install.
No password to remember.
Questions: mb@underdogchance.com
Guarantee
Open the model.
Set real lineups.
Run actual WNBA matchups.
See whether having your own projected spread improves your betting process.
If you do not see the value within 30 days, email me and I will refund the purchase.
No call.
No proof required.
Authority
Dave Cokin
A longtime sports-betting voice and handicapper.
“Definitely worth reading for anyone trying to make their own numbers.”
David Beaudoin · Professor MJ
David Beaudoin, known as Professor MJ, is a PhD in statistics and professor at Laval University in Quebec City.
“His vision of sports betting is exactly like mine: you absolutely need to mix statistical models with your own judgement in order to be successful in this business.”
Professor MJ wrote this about my betting work generally, not about the WNBA model.
The only WNBA-specific feedback I have is the customer message shown earlier on this page.
Questions
Because I do not personally bet the WNBA and therefore cannot show you seasons of my own tracked results with it. I would rather price that honestly than pretend the proof is equivalent to my heavily tracked models.
No. It came from a customer. He reported that the sheet went 21-13 so far that season and had been 61% the previous season. I have not independently audited his tracking.
He said he uses a 3-point differential. The model's default is 7 points, which is more selective.
I would start with the default 7-point filter, track your own results, and only change it once you have enough evidence from your own process.
You choose the matchup and expected lineups. The model uses the player inputs to produce game projections, including an estimated spread and supporting odds, then compares your number with the sportsbook line.
Basketball only has five players on the floor at once, so changes in expected minutes and personnel can materially change a projection.
No. You set the lineups yourself. That is part of using the model correctly.
No. It gives you a projected spread and a qualification filter. You make the final betting decision.
No. Treat this as a spreads model.
No.
No. The formulas are already built into the spreadsheet.
A dedicated video shows you how to add teams and maintain the spreadsheet as the league changes.
Your purchase includes lifetime access to the spreadsheet and instructions for using and maintaining it. It is not an annual managed-update service.
Yes. All Models is $997 and includes the complete model library plus A Journey training.
Email me within 30 days and I will refund your purchase.
mb@underdogchance.com
Last thing
You can already find those everywhere.
What most bettors do not have is a number of their own.
A spread they calculated before deciding whether the sportsbook price is good enough.
That is all this model is supposed to give you.
Not picks.
Not promises.
A number.
And a reason to bet or pass.
$99 once.
Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
Stop following picks.
Start pricing bets.