Soccer betting models
Home.
Draw.
Away.
The models price all three.
But I do not bet all three.
If the value is on the stronger side, I can back that team to win.
If the value is on the underdog, I prefer +0.5 Asian handicap / double chance, so a draw is covered.
If the value is on the draw itself, I pass.
That simple rule turns three-way pricing into a much cleaner decision process.
Three Google Sheets models.
From major competitions to smaller leagues, as long as you can get the required data.
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
The rule, on a real board
The model prices home, draw and away.
Then it compares those prices with the sportsbook.
On the real board you can see the rule being applied:
The sheet does the pricing first.
The rule comes second.
A look inside
These are the actual spreadsheets.
No black box.
You can see the inputs, probabilities, fair odds and value calculation before you buy.
The rule
Unlike a standard two-way moneyline market, football has three possible match results: home, draw and away.
The models calculate a probability for all three and convert those probabilities into fair odds.
Then I compare my fair odds with the sportsbook.
Value on the stronger side
Back the team to win.
The model price says the offered price is sufficiently attractive without adding draw protection.
Value on the underdog
Use +0.5 Asian handicap / double chance when available.
That means the bet wins if the team wins or draws.
Value on the draw
Pass.
The model still prices the draw.
I simply choose not to make the draw itself part of this strategy.
The point is not that the draw is impossible to model.
The point is that I want a simple, repeatable betting rule after the pricing is done.
Member experience
One member adapted the model with his own thresholds and staking.
After roughly 100 bets, he sent me this.
Where this came from
Soccer was where I started betting.
Later, American sports became the center of my own modelling work.
The soccer models came later because people kept asking me for a way to apply the same probability-and-price thinking to football.
So I built several versions and tested them before offering them.
The attraction of soccer is obvious:
there are thousands of matches, hundreds of competitions, and markets ranging from enormous leagues to very small ones.
That means one universal model is not always the answer.
So you get three different levels.
The actual change
You can know the team.
Watch every match.
Know who is injured.
Know who is in form.
And still have no idea whether 1.85 is a good price.
That is the problem.
Without your own probability, you are reacting to the bookmaker’s number.
After this:
Most matches should still be passes.
That is not a failure of the model.
That is what pricing is for.
Inside the models
Simple model
The fastest way in. Fewer inputs. Good for learning the process and exploring smaller leagues where you have basic data available.
Main model
Expected-goals based with additional rating and adjustment inputs. This is the primary model behind the tracked results shown on this page.
Extended model
More control and more inputs for competitions you want to study in greater detail.
All three ultimately give you the same decision framework:
Selectivity
The model can use a simple adjustable staking ladder.
For example:
The exact thresholds can be changed.
The purpose is not to force bigger bets.
The purpose is to distinguish between barely qualifying and meaningfully different from the market.
The work
Unlike the MLB model, this is not built around one automatic data feed.
Soccer has too many leagues and too many different data sources for that to be practical.
You choose the competition.
Bring the required statistics.
Enter the sportsbook prices.
The model calculates the probabilities and fair odds.
That tradeoff is what makes the spreadsheets flexible.
They are not locked to only the Premier League, Champions League or MLS.
It works across many leagues where the required data is available.
Three videos are included:
Real bets
| Run | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup 2026 | 54–31 | +5.20u | +6.12% |
| Euro 2021 | 28–20 | +13.45u | +17.25% |
| MLS | 22–11 | +9.23u | +21.47% |
| Bundesliga 2 | 25–21 | +5.01u | +10.89% |
| Club football run · 2022 | 52–40 | +3.44u | +3.74% |
I do not bet soccer continuously.
These are separate competitions or periods where I chose to run and track the models.
Historical performance is not a forecast of future results.
Public before kickoff
The World Cup run matters to me for a different reason than the ROI.
The bets were posted publicly before kickoff.
The final tracked record:
No selecting only winners afterwards.
No rewriting the record later.
This is the kind of proof I prefer: a process, a timestamp, and a result you can inspect afterwards.
Another tournament
Club football
The comparison
This is the basic idea behind everything on the page.
My model: Denmark 1.30
Sportsbook: Denmark 1.47
The difference is what creates the value number.
The same calculation is done across home, draw and away.
You are not asking: “Who do I think wins?”
You are asking: “What probability do I assign to the outcome, and is the offered price better than my fair price?”
MLS
The MLS sheet shown earlier on this page is the same model used for that run.
How to use it
As a supplement
Pick one competition.
A World Cup. Euros. An MLS season segment. A league you know.
Run the model consistently for that defined period.
As a main market
Choose a small number of leagues where you can get reliable data.
Build a repeatable weekly process.
Do not try to cover every soccer league in existence.
Depth beats random volume.
The limits
Not a picks service
The model produces probabilities, fair odds and value comparisons. You decide what to bet.
You supply the data
There is no universal automatic feed covering every league. That flexibility requires some input from you.
Sides are the main proof
The tracked results shown on this page are primarily match-result betting. Do not buy this because you expect a fully proven totals system.
Soccer is not my primary personal sport
I built these because customers wanted soccer models and I tested them before selling them. If you want somebody whose entire life is Premier League analysis, that is not me. If you want the probability and price framework I use across betting markets, that is what these models provide.
Google Sheets
Designed primarily for laptop and desktop use.
No guarantees
Historical results and member results do not guarantee future profits.
Fit
This is for you if
Skip this if
What you get
Simple soccer model
The easiest starting point.
Main soccer model
The primary expected-goals / probability model.
Extended soccer model
A deeper version with more control.
Three training videos
One for each model.
1X2 pricing
Home / draw / away probabilities and fair odds.
Value comparison
Your model price beside the sportsbook.
Betting rule
Straight win / +0.5 / pass logic.
Adjustable selectivity and staking
Control how strong the difference needs to be before a bet qualifies and how you size qualifying plays.
American odds tracker
Track results and closing-price information.
Decimal odds tracker
Track results and closing-price information.
Lifetime access
One payment. No annual model renewal.
Small bonus
50 complimentary AI Assistant credits.
The Underdog Chance AI Assistant is a separate product. The 50 credits let you try it on real games. Buying the Soccer Models does not start an AI subscription. Nothing renews automatically. Credits are added manually after purchase.
Price
$299
One-time payment.
Lifetime access.
No recurring model fee.
Three soccer models.
30-day money-back guarantee
Buying several sports? All Models is $997 and includes the complete model library plus A Journey training.
See all models →Delivery
Your access is attached to the email address you use at checkout.
Go to My Library.
Enter that same email.
We send a magic sign-in link.
Click it and your Soccer Model content unlocks.
Inside you will find:
Copy the Google Sheets files into your own Google Drive.
No software installation.
No password to remember.
Support: mb@underdogchance.com
Guarantee
Choose a league.
Load the numbers.
Work through real matchdays.
See how the models fit your process.
If you do not see the value, email me within 30 days and I will refund the purchase.
No call.
No proof required.
In their words
Soccer member
“Just wanna say your Football model is insane. After 100 bets im 56-38 +44.23u +25.79% ROI.”
The full message is shown earlier on this page.
David Beaudoin · Professor MJ
David Beaudoin, known as Professor MJ, is a PhD in statistics and professor at Laval University in Quebec City.
“His vision of sports betting is exactly like mine: you absolutely need to mix statistical models with your own judgement in order to be successful in this business.”
Dave Cokin
Dave Cokin is a longtime sports handicapper and respected voice in sports betting.
“Definitely worth reading for anyone trying to make their own numbers.”
Don
Marek
Questions
Three. A simple model, the main model and an extended version with more control and inputs.
Many leagues can work as long as you can get the required statistics. I have used the framework on competitions including the World Cup, Euros, MLS, Bundesliga 2 and other club football.
No. Data quality and market quality differ. Use leagues where you can get reliable inputs and sensible sportsbook prices.
The exact inputs depend on which of the three models you use. The main model is built around expected-goals style data with additional ratings and adjustments. The walkthrough shows you what to collect and where it goes.
Yes. They calculate home, draw and away probabilities.
That is my betting rule, not a limitation of the model. If value is on the draw itself, I pass. If value is on an underdog, I can use +0.5 / double chance so a draw is covered.
The bet wins if your team wins or draws. Some sportsbooks present the same idea as double chance.
No. The formulas are already built. You supply the required data and sportsbook prices and read the output.
No universal feed is included. You bring the statistics for the leagues you want to model.
Soccer covers hundreds of leagues and data sources. Manual input makes the models much more flexible across competitions.
No. The models produce probabilities, fair odds and value comparisons. You make the final betting decision.
The spreadsheets can be used to explore more than one market, but the tracked proof presented on this page is primarily match-result betting. Do not treat totals as a proven historical edge from this record.
Once your league data is prepared, running a matchday is quick. Setting up a new league for the first time takes longer.
Yes. The selectivity and staking criteria can be adjusted.
No. The records on this page are historical results from specific tracked runs. Your leagues, prices, inputs and decisions will be different.
The tracked public run shown on this page finished 54–31 for +5.20 units and +6.12% ROI across 85 bets posted before kickoff.
You keep the spreadsheets permanently. Update the league statistics and continue using the same framework. There is no annual model renewal.
Yes. All Models is $997 and includes the complete model library plus A Journey training.
Email me within 30 days of purchase and I will refund them.
mb@underdogchance.com
Last thing
At the World Cup I did the same thing over and over.
Calculate a probability.
Turn it into a fair price.
Compare it with the market.
Apply the rule.
Bet or pass.
The public run finished:
That does not tell you what the next competition will do.
It tells you the process was actually used.
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
Stop following picks.
Start pricing bets.