NFL Betting Model
Your number vs. their number.
Every game, every week.
A Google Sheets NFL model that projects the score, spread and total for every game, then puts your numbers next to the sportsbook market.
Paste in two free stats tables. Run the week in about five minutes. Then decide which prices are worth taking and which ones aren't.
Across tracked seasons · all plays risked at 1 unit
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee
Your number vs. the market
A difference does not automatically mean a bet.
Look at Buffalo.
The model had Buffalo by 13.03.
The sportsbook had Buffalo by 10.
That is a 3.03-point difference.
Dallas was 11.07 in the model versus 7 at the book.
That is a 4.07-point difference.
Under the default 7-point qualifying benchmark, neither one qualifies.
That is the point.
The model is not there to manufacture action.
It gives you a number, a threshold and a reason to pass when the price is not good enough.
The demo
Two minutes and you'll know exactly what you're buying.
No black box. No simulated interface. This is the actual sheet.
Why I built it this way
“Who do you like this week?”
I get asked that constantly, and I never have a very good answer.
Because I don't think about teams first. I think about prices.
The same team can be worth betting at one number and an easy pass at another. Nothing about the team changed. The price did.
Most bettors work the other way around.
They read an injury report, form an opinion and then take whatever number is on the screen.
To do it differently, you need something most bettors do not have:
A number of your own to compare against.
A number of your own to compare against.
Marjan Balasko · Underdog Chance
Betting since 1998 · Building models since the early 2000s
Inside the sheet
One screen. The whole week.
Every game is organized around three things.
My projections.
Projected score, spread and total for every game.
The point is to create an independent number before you look at the market and decide what the available price is worth.
Minimum qualifying lines.
This is the part most models leave out.
The sheet does not just show a gap.
It shows the exact line where a game starts to qualify under your benchmark.
If you cannot get that number, you pass.
The default benchmark is 7 points. You can change it.
Supporting stats.
The offensive and defensive data behind the projections is there when you want to inspect it: team rankings, points, yards per play, passing efficiency and rushing efficiency.
You can dig into it.
Or you can simply run the process and read the numbers.
The work
If you can copy and paste, you can run it.
No coding.
No formulas to write.
Nothing to install.
The weekly process
- 1Open the sheet
- 2Copy two free stats tables from Football Reference and ESPN
- 3Select the week's matchups
- 4Read your projections and qualifying lines
About five minutes. Once a week.
The formulas are already there.
And if you are comfortable with spreadsheets, nothing is hidden from you. You can inspect the model, change the benchmark and build on top of it.
The routine
Decide once. Then close the laptop.
The new lines are up.
You sit down at the laptop, run the model and compare your numbers with the market.
Anything that meets your criteria gets considered.
Everything else gets ignored.
Five minutes at a desk.
Then you are done.
This is not designed to make you stare at betting screens all week.
It is designed to give you a repeatable process, make the week's decisions and move on.
Build betting around your life, not your life around betting.
Tracked results
146–112 across tracked seasons.
| Season | Record | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | 35–17 | 67.31% | +16.64u |
| 2019/20 | 24–29 | 45.28% | −9.28u |
| 2023/24 · current version | 22–16 | 57.89% | +4.31u |
| 2024/25 | 39–33 | 54.17% | +2.62u |
| 2025/26 | 26–17 | 60.47% | +7.02u |
| Total | 146–112 | 56.59% | +21.31u |
+8.26% ROI
Every tracked play was risked at exactly 1 unit.
258 bets = 258 units risked.
21.31 units profit / 258 units risked = 8.26% ROI.
And yes, the losing season stays in the table.
That is what a real betting record looks like.
A good process can still lose over a season or over a long stretch. Buying a model does not remove variance.
Past results do not guarantee future performance.
The honest scoreboard
Wins and losses aren't the only number I track.
A short-term win rate can be luck.
Closing line value asks something different:
Did the price you took beat the price available when the market closed?
In the season shown above, the tracked NFL bets produced 3.81% overall CLV against Pinnacle's closing prices.
Spreads finished at 3.01%.
Totals finished at 4.35%.
One season is still a limited sample.
I am not presenting it as proof of a permanent edge.
But it gives me information that wins and losses alone cannot: whether I was consistently taking better prices than the market's final number.
And here is the actual log.
The losing stretches are still there.
Tracking everything is the point.
Read this before you buy
I would rather lose the sale than sell you the wrong thing.
It does not give you picks.
It gives you projected numbers and qualifying lines. You decide whether the price available at your sportsbook is worth taking.
It does not promise a winning season.
NFL samples are small. A sensible process can lose over 50 or 100 bets. Buying the model does not make variance disappear.
It is a spreadsheet.
Google Sheets. It works best on a laptop. You can open it on a phone, but I do not recommend running the weekly workflow there.
You still have to open it.
Five minutes a week is small. It is not zero.
It is not a professional trading desk.
This gives an ordinary bettor a structured independent number. It does not claim to price the NFL more accurately than the sharpest syndicates or market makers in the world.
This is for you if
- You already bet NFL and want a reason behind each bet.
- You want numbers of your own instead of following picks.
- You are willing to spend about five minutes a week.
- You care about price and value.
- You would rather pass than force a bet.
- You are willing to use a spreadsheet.
Skip this if
- You want someone to send you picks.
- You expect guaranteed profits.
- You want a completely automated betting bot.
- You will never open a spreadsheet.
What you get
Everything you need to run the model.
The NFL Model
The Google Sheets model with projected scores, spreads and totals, qualifying lines and supporting statistics.
Instruction video
A practical walkthrough showing you how to load the data, run the model and read the output.
American Odds Bet Tracker
Track wagers and closing line value using American odds.
Decimal Odds Bet Tracker
The same tracking workflow using decimal odds.
Lifetime access
Pay once. No subscription and no annual renewal. Your model and training remain available in My Library. The instruction material explains how to update and use the model in future seasons.
Getting-started email support
If you have trouble getting started, email mb@underdogchance.com.
Bonus
50 complimentary AI Assistant credits.
The AI Assistant is a separate Underdog Chance product. The credits let you try it on real games. Buying the NFL Model does not start an AI subscription and nothing renews automatically. The credits are added manually after purchase.
NFL Model
$299
One-time payment.
No subscription.
Lifetime access.
- NFL Model
- Instruction video
- American Odds Bet Tracker
- Decimal Odds Bet Tracker
- 50 complimentary AI Assistant credits
30-day money-back guarantee
Buying more than one sport?
The All Models Bundle is $997 and includes the Toolkit, all seven core models and bonus content.
$1,920 if purchased individually.
See all models →After purchase
What happens after you pay.
Your purchase is connected automatically to the email address you use at checkout.
Open My Library and enter that same email address.
We send you a magic link.
Click it and your NFL Model, training and resources will be waiting there.
Start with the instruction video, make your own copy of the Google Sheet and run your first week.
Nothing to install.
No password to remember.
Open my library →Questions getting started? mb@underdogchance.com
30-day guarantee
Try the process for yourself.
Run the model.
Use it for a few weeks.
See whether the process makes sense for the way you bet.
If it isn't for you, email me within 30 days and I'll refund your purchase.
That's it.
In their words
You don't have to take my word for it.
Questions
Before you decide.
How does it work?+
You copy two free stats tables into the sheet. It projects a score, spread and total for the week's games and shows the qualifying lines under your benchmark. You compare those numbers with the sportsbook market.
Do I need to be good at math?+
No. The math is already built into the spreadsheet. You copy the data, run the model and read the numbers.
How long does it take each week?+
About five minutes once you're familiar with the workflow.
Do I have to pay for data?+
No. The data sources used in the workflow are free.
Is this a picks service?+
No. It gives you your own numbers and qualifying lines. You decide whether the price available at your sportsbook is worth taking.
I've bought picks before. What makes this different?+
A pick gives you somebody else's conclusion. This gives you a repeatable process for producing your own number every week. If I disappeared tomorrow, you would still have the model.
Which sportsbook do I need?+
Any sportsbook where you can compare the available spread or total with your model's number. Having access to more than one sportsbook gives you more prices to compare.
Does it work outside the USA?+
Yes. It is a Google Sheet and the data sources are available online. The model does not depend on where you live.
Will it still work next season?+
Yes. You keep the model and training. The instruction material explains the process for updating and using it in future seasons. This is not an annual subscription.
Does it work on a phone?+
You can open it on a phone, but I recommend a laptop or desktop for the weekly workflow.
What is CLV and why do you track it?+
Closing line value compares the price you took with the price available when the market closed. Short-term results can be noisy. CLV gives you another way to judge whether you were consistently taking better prices.
What are the 50 AI credits?+
They are complimentary credits for the separate Underdog Chance AI Assistant. Buying the NFL Model does not start an AI subscription and nothing renews automatically.
Can I get all the models?+
Yes. The All Models Bundle is $997 and includes the Toolkit, all seven core models and bonus content.
What if I don't like it?+
Email me within 30 days of purchase and I'll refund you.
I still have a question.+
Email mb@underdogchance.com.
Last thing
A number of your own.
If you've been betting NFL on opinion for years, another opinion probably isn't what you're missing.
This model does not fix that by telling you who to bet.
It gives you something more useful:
A number of your own.
Put your estimate beside the market price.
Then make the decision yourself.
Five minutes a week.
One-time payment · Lifetime access · 30-day money-back guarantee