The 20-Year Plan
Most bettors plan the next bet. Almost nobody plans the next ten years. Set your numbers and see if your plan survives.
Make a guess.
This bettor has a real +3% edge. He bets 5% of his bankroll on every bet and sets a new unit size once a year.
What is the chance he goes broke at least once in the next 10 years?
Build your own plan.
Odds format
Flat units during the year. Once a year you set a new unit from your current bankroll.
Your unit size decides if your edge ever gets paid.
An edge is an average. To collect an average, you have to still be betting when the good stretch comes.
Every year is a new chance to go broke. A 5% risk per year sounds small. Over 20 years it becomes a 64% chance.
With a negative ROI, no unit size saves you. A smaller unit only makes the loss slower.
Longer odds make every plan riskier. The same edge and the same unit are far more dangerous at +300 than at -110.
Pick a unit size that survives your worst year. Then give the edge time.
For the size of a single bet there is a formula. It is called the Kelly criterion.
Play $50,000 or Flip? →These numbers are estimates from a simplified model: independent bets at one average price, flat units within each year, no deposits and no withdrawals. Use them as a guide, not as a forecast.
Finished models for the sports you already follow.
See the models