how are you? I hope you are dong well and I hope you are making some profit as well.
The World Cup group stage games will be over today and if you watched my betting course about World Cup, you would make cca +10 units of profit so far. Depends on the odds you got, but I made +10.39 units of profit so far. The best odds are on Cloudbet.
If you didn’t watch the course about World cup and ideas how to beat the market, you can watch it here:
….because it will be closed on 2 days. So hurry up.
At the end of the course you get also a chance to learn how to easily turn the probabilities into the odds for football/soccer.
If you didn’t watch it – in short….
- World Cup is special event with 64 games
- There is almost no betting model for this world cup and if there is one, it is very hard to estimate probabilities. To many obstacles, like ranking teams, not enough statistics, huge psychological factors,….
- Nobody can guarantee a profit and mostly amateurs bettors and sports fans take this competition as a serious competition from sports betting perspective.
- This is biggest event in 2018 and many people that don’t watch sports, right now watch every single game. Many of them bet too and there was huge amount of money added to the market
- So, if we are regular daily bettors, right now we are not alone and there is huge amount of extra money involved
- Because of all that also the bookmakers don’t know how to set the odds properly, but they know one thing. They know how amateur bettors and sports fans think.
- Amateurs bettors will bet a lot on World Cup games, without any strategy or pre-research, they talk about every single game, they take this world cup very seriously, they also like to bet on huge favourites and we have probably couple of millions new “betting experts”.
- Because of all that, bookmakers offer them “tricky” odds on favourites.
Before the world cup, I researched the market and I saw, that betting blindly on underdogs in last couple of big competitions was profitable ting to do. This was announced in my video above. It is a combination of all those tings I mention here.
“What is your point to bet on all underdogs?”
That was the question I received yesterday. If this is so easy, why everyone don’t bet on all underdogs?
Why you bother with watching games, reading news, when you know that you don’t have any edge?
Many bettors think they have the edge in those games, but in fact they don’t have. I don’t have the edge in any of those games, you don’t have the edge and bookmakers don’t know how to set the odds, but they have margins and they have a lot of amateurs gamblers, that will lose money anyway. But in general it is almost not possible to have the edge compared to betting prices. And if there is someone who won couple of games without some strict strategy, system or estimation of the odds, it was probably pure luck.
Nobody can guarantee a profit in world cup games and nobody can guarantee that one team will win. We saw how Germany lost to Korea and focusing on one single game is in my opinion not right way.
It is little bit easier to beat the competition than one game. Even this is not a guarantee, but if you look at bigger picture, you have bigger chance.
Instead of focusing on on game, I focused on whole competition and on whole 64 games. I saw that betting on underdogs was profitable on big competitions and this is sample of 254 games now since 2010 (added 44 games now). I also recommended two other strategies, that have not such a good record in the past, but both could be profitable as well (betting on draws and betting on double chance against favourites – explained in video). I didn’t check the record on those two strategies, maybe some of you play this too and you can show us what is your record.
254 big competition games (EURO, WC) since 2010:
- +33.98 Units
- Yield: +13.38%
I think you can not do much better than this.
So, the answer on what was my point is this: I researched the market before the world cup. I didn’t just say – bet on underdogs without reason. I understand how bookmakers think and I know how sports fans/recreational/amateur bettors think. They also act very emotionally and they like to bet on huge favourites. So I looked at the bigger picture and I didn’t want to predict one game. I found some patterns, I researched past competition with betting odds (not who won, but how you can make money compared to the odds on the market). And of course when we take into account common sense and mentality of recreational bettors, I came to final conclusion.
When I see bets on the internet like Switzerland over 3.5 or Germany 1.40, I really don’t understand how those people come those those prices. So, if you bet on Germany 1.40, then you must estimate somehow, that this price should be lower (like 1.25 for example) and it is very hard to estimate those prices on such event. No games, very small sample sizes, confusion with the market, etc…
So, the point is that when I recommended to bet on underdogs, that was with the reason and there was some work behind this. The reason was – betting market and understanding it. I don’t care if Germany needs win, I didn’t care if Korea is not playing for anything. I knew, that betting on underdogs has probably some advantage, that was the pattern in the past and if we take into account mentality of amateur gamblers, who bet on huge favourites, there are strong reasons for doing this. I would probably never come to this conclusion if I would not understand the market, I would not come to this conclusion if I would not make every single mistake in the past and learn on my own losses.
If blindly betting on underdogs is very easy thing to do, why most bettors don’t do this?
I mentioned many times, that blindly betting usually doesn’t work, because bookmakers take such things into account. For example, betting blindly on underdogs or betting blindly on favourites will lead to a loss in MLB baseball. But bookmakers know how to set the odds there, because of many games, where it is easier to set the odds. On the other side, they are also confused with World Cup and because of this there was a chance to take the advantage.
There is of course NO POINT , if you wake up in the morning and you say, I will bet blindly on underdogs without a reason and have fun.
On the other side…
There is A POINT, if you wake up in the morning and say, I will research the market, I will research mentality of bettors, I will look at how bookmakers think, how bettors think and what was most profitable thing to bet in last big competitions, because of the same nature of event. After that I will make a conclusion and I will share those information with my followers, so they can look at the competition from different perspective than some amateur gambler, who will try to analyse every single game and bet on Spain 1.50 and Germany 1.40. If the message was completely understood, I think you could take the advantage so far and even have fun watching those games.
I bet only for fun….
In the video I said, that I will bet for FUN, I will bet SMALL and I will bet on underdogs (I recommended 3 different strategies, one of them was betting on underdogs). Why I decided for underdogs? Because I bet for fun, I don’t take this competition seriously and for me it is more exciting to cheer for underdogs. And also if we strictly stick with the research, the most profitable betting in the past was on underdogs:
- Bets on Favourites (last 210 big competition games): -14.46 Units
- Bets on Draws (last 210 big competition games): +11.04 Units
- Bets on Underdogs (last 210 big competition games): +23.59 Units
So, it was logical for me to bet on underdogs from both perspective.
This is not project for me – this is entertainment for me
I don’t gamble with such competitions. I bet for fun and very small. I could spend this money for parties, for drinking, cigarettes, but I decided that I will forget that amount of money. If I lose all, no problem. But if I bet it will make games more interesting to watch. That was my reason – just fun.
I know some people started to panic and this is what I announced in video as well and some people think that this is some serious project for me. I don’t gamble with those competitions. And this is not a project for me. With the video and with my information I wanted to help YOU, so you don’t make mistakes like most amateur gamblers. And I would not recommend to take this competition as some serious project.
Project for me is MLB for example. This is for me project, where I estimate the odds, try to beat closing line value, etc… but not World Cup. So, no matter what happen, this is not serious project for me and if you read and watch my videos, you should understand this.
If I say, that this is very risky competition, if I say, that I will bet only for fun and very small, if I say, that nobody can guarantee a profit,… and if you still decide to put your whole bankroll on this competition, it is your decision. I would definitely never recommend to bet big on such events. There are some ways how to take the advantage of this competition (like I explained in video above), but this is still not a guarantee, that it will work. It gives us just better chance against others.
So, what to do know if you still bet big and if you took my advice from video?
Right now the record is +10.39 units with the yield of +23.61%
If we go back and if I tell you before the world cup, that you will make exactly 64 bets and you will finish with the yield of +10% and +6.4 units of profit, I think everyone would take it. Yield of +10% or everything above +5 units on 64 games (if we bet 1 unit flat on each game) is very very good.
Right now we (or me) made more than +10 units. You can not expect much better result.
So, I recommend to take profits and don’t bet anymore on World Cup if you bet big and if you took this competition very seriously. This is nice profit. If you bet seriously always take profits. Simply take money, so you know, that you made a good thing. And expecting that you will finish this world cup with the yield of +30% or more is very optimistic. I don’t say it can not happen, but if you bet big, take profit if you listen to my advice and that’s it.
This is what I recommend now!
What about me?
I don’t care about this competition that much. I usually watch couple of minutes of every game, because I usually don’t have much time because of other work. I don’t even know if I watched full game yet. But I still have lot of fun. I consciously took some small amount of money to bet for fun in this world cup. And I will keep betting just for fun. I don’t care that much for profit here, because I bet one coffer per game. I still believe that I will finish with profit at the end. Maybe only +5 units, maybe less, maybe more, but I believe I will finish in profit.
WHAT TO DO NOW?
I am not important here, or what I will do, because I do this for fun. It is more about you and I wanted to help you with advice before the world cup and I want to help you with advice now. If you took my advice earlier, you made a profit so far. Right?
So here is my last advice if you bet seriously on this competition:
Stop betting and take profits, because you can not expect much better result than +10 units and yield of more than +20%. We call this – realistic epectations and sometimes you need to know when to stop.
If you bet for fun like me with the money you can lose without any problem, than keep having fun. I like to act as a sports fan here, I like to make some “fan tweets” on my twitter and I will say Croatia will be world champion and will beat England in final :-) :-)
But if you bet seriously – I recommend to take profit and stop. This is amazing result so far if you followed my advice before World Cup and you can not expect much better result than this.