Philadelphia (Pivetta) 1.53 / -189

Philadelphia Phillies lost yesterday and they will definitely try to bounce back after a loss. And I see nice chances for them with some +EV compared to bookmakers odds. They will start with Nick Pivetta, who is 6-9 to the season with the ERA of 4.40, but if we check his performance, he is pitching much better and we can expect the ERA will go down. I rank him much higher than league average pitcher, he struck out 152 batters in 124 innings this season and he has been also very hot lately (ERA 1.50, whip 0.877) in last couple of starts. Mets on the other side will start with Vargas, left handed pitcher, who has ERA of 8.10 and his pitching is not great at all. All other ERA metrics are against him (SIERA 4.95). So, I think that Philadelphia will have huge pitching advantage today and one another bad thing for Mets is that they have one of the worst bullpen in the league (I rank their bullpen #29 out of 30 teams). Based on my projections, I give Philadelphia 69.51% of chance to win this game.


Milwaukee (Chacin) 2.07 / +107

Milwaukee Brewers lost yesterday, but I think we have two very good teams this season and honestly we didn’t expect, that Milwaukee will be a winning team in August, but it looks like that both teams will fight for playoffs this season. Milwaukee will start with Chacin and on the other side St Louis will start with Gant. In this pitching match up, I don’t see any advantage, I rank both pitchers close to league average. But I think that Milwaukee will have the advantage in the second part of the game. Their bullpen is among the best in the league (#5 ranked based on my rankings) and St Louis bullpen is below league average (#25). The big question for Milwaukee are still Thames and Braun if they will play or not, but I think that this will be close game and bullpen could be crucial later in the game. Note that there is just tiny value with Milwaukee and it depends on the odds you get from your bookmaker.


Baltimore / Cleveland – Over 9

Cleveland ballpark is one of the most hitters friendly ballparks this season. And if we check Indians at home, they also score 5.6 runs per game. Cleveland will start with Clevinger, who holds ERA 3.38 (home 4.01). He has been very solid this season and I rank him just little bit above league average pitcher. On the other side Ramirez will play for Baltimore and his ERA is above 6 and above 10 in last 3 starts, but as I said many times ERA is not good future predictor and I am not betting on this total because he has ERA above 6. I rank him below league average and his realistic ERA should be around 4.70. So we have two close to league average pitchers in a hitters friendly ballpark this season and what is interesting, but teams are hitting well lately. In last 30 days I rank both teams in terms of hitting in top 10. Note also, that Baltimore has one of the worst bullpen in the league and after two low scoring games in Cleveland I expect more runs today. I especially expect from Cleveland to score more and I also expect from Baltimore to score couple of runs.


Quick basics

  • Favourites: plays on teams/outcomes, where bookmakers opinion is that the outcome has more than 50% of chance to win. Please understand, that the chance of winning is totally different than, expected value.
  • Underdogs: Bets on the outcomes with +EV, but based on bookmakers opinion we have less than 50% of chance to win a bet/outcome. Underdog bets are recommended for advanced players with strong money managements.
  • Totals: Betting on total runs/goals/points
  • CLV = closing line value is the most important indicator if you will be a long term winner or not. According to Pinnacle (which is the sharpest bookmaker in the world): “The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.”
  • Betting projection = my estimated winning percentage turned into the numbers (odds). I project winning percentage for every single game and then I look at the games, where my odds are different than bookmakers odds. I use statistics and my betting models. I reveal betting models in A Journey Betting Course.