Why betting model is so important?
Sports betting has changed over the years. The sports betting market is sharper, bookmakers are sharper and the numbers are more and more important. And the real difference between sports betting, which is a financial market and pure sports are numbers. Without numbers, there is no sports betting. This is where betting models step in…
What is the key to winning at sports betting?
The key to winning in sports betting is betting on the value (+EV bets). So if the bookmaker’s odds are 1.91 (-110) vs 1.91 (-110) on a particular event, that means that they give both teams 50% of the chance.
The goal of every sports betting model is to calculate (independently) probabilities of these outcomes and then comparing with bookmakers’ odds.
If in this case, my betting model estimates true probabilities for this event, that one team will have 60% of chance instead of 50%, then this can be a +EV bet on the odds of 1.91 (-110). On 100 bets, the betting record would be 60 wins and 40 losses, profit: +14.6 units.
Sports Betting Algorithm
The heart of every betting model is the algorithm. The combination of the right statistical methods, formulas, functions, and statistics (usually advanced statistics) is the key.
All other things, like visual aspects of the model, the colors, copy/pasting, or scrapping the data from the internet are just the details that can be improved anytime and can make our betting life easier. But without a good algorithm, everything else just falls into the water.
How to build a sports betting model?
Creating a betting system that is based on algorithms and probabilistic methods is usually a hard task for most bettors, who just love the sport. But with the right steps and the right focus, it can be done even with the simplest tools like excel or Google Sheets.
- Research the leagues or sports that you want to analyze. Remember that you are not choosing a sport to watch, but the market to invest.
- Specify what problem you want to solve
- Choose the tool or programming language based on your knowledge, where you will build a model. The simplest tool for an average bettor, where we still make amazing things are excel and google spreadsheets. Or you go with advanced like python.
- Accumulate significant data and analyze it
- Choose a statistical method
- Create a model in your tool or program (betting software)
- Test the betting model and track results
Excluding emotions and stick to betting algorithms and well-defined betting systems
Many sports bettors make two big mistakes that lead to a big disappointment sooner or later:
- They emotionally decide which sports they will bet
- They make betting decisions based on intuition and gut feelings. Not based on numbers or +EV.
The intuition can not be measured and can not be tracked. Feelings change every day and this affects our decisions. This is why well-defined sports betting models are crucial because help us to make rational decisions and track performance.