Sports Betting Models

Sports betting analytics

Sports betting model is a method, that helps you to project your own (winning percentages) odds before you bet, by using sports betting analytics. It is a very important part of the betting system that helps you finding a team’s probabilities more accurately than a bookmaker/betting market. It helps you to find the value that most other bettors wouldn’t find.

For most people, this is a very difficult task. It takes a lot of time, research, knowledge, testing, and even sleepless nights. But once you establish a successful betting model, it can give you the edge and show you opportunities that the general betting public would never consider.

I can not imagine betting without a betting model, where I get projected numbers that can be compared with the bookmakers’ numbers (my projected odds/lines vs bookmakers lines).

Why betting model is so important?

Sports betting has changed over the years. The sports betting market is sharper, bookmakers are sharper and the numbers are more and more important. And the real difference between sports betting, which is a financial market and pure sports are numbers. Without numbers, there is no sports betting. This is where betting models step in…

What is the key to winning at sports betting?

The key to winning in sports betting is betting on the value (+EV bets). So if the bookmaker’s odds are 1.91 (-110) vs 1.91 (-110) on a particular event, that means that they give both teams 50% of the chance.

The goal of every sports betting model is to calculate (independently) probabilities of these outcomes and then comparing with bookmakers’ odds.

If in this case, my betting model estimates true probabilities for this event, that one team will have 60% of chance instead of 50%, then this can be a +EV bet on the odds of 1.91 (-110). On 100 bets, the betting record would be 60 wins and 40 losses, profit: +14.6 units.

Sports Betting Algorithm

The heart of every betting model is the algorithm. The combination of the right statistical methods, formulas, functions, and statistics (usually advanced statistics) is the key.

All other things, like visual aspects of the model, the colors, copy/pasting, or scrapping the data from the internet are just the details that can be improved anytime and can make our betting life easier. But without a good algorithm, everything else just falls into the water.

How to build a sports betting model?

Creating a betting system that is based on algorithms and probabilistic methods is usually a hard task for most bettors, who just love the sport. But with the right steps and the right focus, it can be done even with the simplest tools like excel or Google Sheets.

  • Research the leagues or sports that you want to analyze. Remember that you are not choosing a sport to watch, but the market to invest.
  • Specify what problem you want to solve
  • Choose the tool or programming language based on your knowledge, where you will build a model. The simplest tool for an average bettor, where we still make amazing things are excel and google spreadsheets. Or you go with advanced like python.
  • Accumulate significant data and analyze it
  • Choose a statistical method
  • Create a model in your tool or program (betting software)
  • Test the betting model and track results

Excluding emotions and stick to betting algorithms and well-defined betting systems

Many sports bettors make two big mistakes that lead to a big disappointment sooner or later:

  • They emotionally decide which sports they will bet
  • They make betting decisions based on intuition and gut feelings. Not based on numbers or +EV.

The intuition can not be measured and can not be tracked. Feelings change every day and this affects our decisions. This is why well-defined sports betting models are crucial because help us to make rational decisions and track performance.

List of My Private Sports Betting Models

My whole work is devoted to helping an average sports bettor to win at sports betting by using the numbers and building models in betting spreadsheets.

It all started with the MLB betting model, which is my main market to bet. But later I also created different betting models to show that even the average bettor can understand the numbers and use simple betting models in google sheets or excel.

The fact is that in the long run, only value bets will lead to a profit. And the value is simply the difference between bookmakers’ odds and true (projected) odds. Best betting models can answer these questions.

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