To get better picture about our results, we need to see results from more angles, because W-L is not enough and will not tell you anything. Bettors also use differetn strategies, different units for different sports and I think the results should be explained little bit better. W-L record, profit, yield, p-value, clv, make your own comments, so you know if you make some changes with your betting method,…
My main sport is baseball – MLB and later I have created different betting models to help A Journey members. Some of those sports I bet much less to test the models or simply I just tested the model against the market without betting real money (like CBB).
So far the best theory is closing line value theory, which will tell you much more about your betting performance than any other W-L or Profit oriented information. I started tracking and pay close attention to closing line value in 2018.
Current Season – After some period of time, I reorganise my bankroll and on Monday 8/05/2019 started with new betting period, where I also track and play small on sports, which are in testing mode. Usually 0.1 unit per game. Not all sports are played with same units. My main sport is MLB baseball, where the units are biggest. There are also some other sports where I challenge myself and help our members to create betting model.
Overall record – You can check all my past records since I started with my site. Check also interpretation, because not all units and sports are the same.
MLB – Baseball is my main sport and this is where units are bigger compared to other sports. I always say, that you don’t need to jump from sport to sport and if you bet to generate extra income, you need only one bet type, league or sport. So, if I would need to pick only one sport to bet, that would be baseball. But since betting and “hacking sports betting world” with intention to help sports bettors all over the World, so they can create their first betting model and finally use statistics, I also challenge myself in other sports. Operating with numbers in google sheets, creating simple to understand models and helping bettors is my passion.
Basketball – I made more than 2200 bets with the profit from 2017-2019 on all kind of basketball leagues. I was blindly following betting model, that calculates projections and totals, where I was looking for at least 7 pts difference between my numbers and bookmakers numbers. After very good start, the results regressed to the mean little bit and in 2019 I will stick with bigger, more reliable leagues that have smallest margins.
NFL – I started with NFL mostly because of requests from our members. There is a lot of NFL bettors who use all kind of strange sources and handicappers when they make bets. I wanted to create simple to use betting model for NFL, where they get the numbers before they bet.
NHL – ice hockey was one of my main sports in the past (after baseball), but I was struggling with the model in 2017 and 2018. I bet much less and in 2019 I have created new betting model.
Soccer – I am not big fan of betting on soccer, but I have created a betting model for our members so they can start using numbers for any league they want. I also test and bet very small units on German Second Bundesliga. I picked this league randomly.
NBA – I used the same betting model for NBA, than I used for European basketball. But the leagues and dynamics are little bit different and simple model, that worked well for international basketball needed some improvement here for NBA. So I have created new betting model for NBA in 2019 with all lineups and player adjustments.
CBB – Based on request from our members, I have created betting model for College basketball and it i going into testing mode. The idea is the same – use free available stats and make projections. Looks for the difference and see how it does against the market. Learn, improve and upgrade. Not betting real money at this moment. But you can check progress.
CLV = closing line value. According to Pinnacle and other top sportsbooks in the world this is the most important indicator if you are a long term winner or not. Pinnacle: “The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.”
BTL = Beating the line percentage.
xYield (CLV) = Taken odds / closing odds without margin
Yield = Profit / Turnover
ROI = Return on investment. I believe that every bettor has a strategy and a bankroll, which is divided into small units. Bankroll (or a budget) is the money you can lose without any serious consequences and is locked for some period of time. How much you gain in some period of time = ROI. Profit / Starting investment.
P-value = performance as measured by statistical significance
OVERALL RESULTS – updated daily
Current Season Chart – updated daily
Current Bankroll (Re-organised 8/5/2019) – All sports under one bankroll. Different units for different sports. Biggest units are baseball bets (most of the best 1-2% from initial bankroll). New betting models, testing models, new sports are tested on a real example with small units (usually 0.1% of bankroll). Focus is positive CLV (Closing Line Value).