This is the recap of my MLB bet prediction results for 2020 and a quick overview of my betting strategy in this strange season, where many baseball handicappers had a tough time.
2020 Season – MLB Bet Prediction Results
- Record: 63-47-6, +15.20 Units (download here)
- Average Play: 1.36 Units
- Yield (ROI): +10.14%
- Betting Strategy: Sports Betting Analytics and My Private Betting Model (Learn More)
Baseball Handicappers adjusting in 2020
The start of 2020 was pretty tough for sports handicappers all around the World. No leagues, no sport, and we didn’t even know if we will see any league because Covid hit the World. I was hoping, that MLB baseball will start soon, but soon I realized that it will not start in March or in April. This is why I decided to spend this extra time to research eSports betting and focused on building a sports betting model for CSGO.
Baseball season usually starts in late March and many baseball handicappers start preparing for the betting season already in February. But 2020 was different and baseball betting strategies had to be adjusted.
Selecting bet prediction was different for MLB cappers?
First of all, baseball has 2430 regular-season games, which is the most among all major leagues. This gives us a lot of opportunities during the season (from 10-15 games every day) and what I liked about it is that I could wait the first 3 weeks to collect first baseball stats and then I still had a large number of games for betting. But this season started on July 24th which was 4 months later. There were a couple of things baseball cappers had to pay attention to:
- Later start, the huge gap between two seasons and we didn’t know in which shape players start the season
- Some new rules, like DH for NL teams, an extra runner in extra innings,…
- Shorter season
- Covid-19 situation and any player can be scratched from the lineup on a game day
- Possible cancellation of baseball games because of virus
And this is something all MLB pro sports bettors took into account and then had to pay attention to daily changes and updates.
My adjusted baseball betting strategy
More selective baseball betting strategy
The key decision was to be a little bit more selective (adjk 1.80 or more) and a little bit more careful with baseball bets in 2020. So I looked back at my MLB betting season 2019. I made +12.50 units in 2019 but what I also did in that season was tracking my betting results in a spreadsheet. I was tracking different units and how they perform against the closing lines. The units are all selected based on the proven MLB betting model, that I use (with the updates of course) for the last couple of years. So it is one established betting system or betting algorithm that is based on bet analytics and not just guessing. Because I had all this info in my betting spreadsheets I had a chance to see, that the value bets with bigger adjusted kelly criterium, which I use for selecting the stakes, had little but better CLV results, then the rest. In other words, if I select only the “best MLB bets”, I beat the line more often.
Early season wagers
The second decision I was making was to bet a little bit earlier into the season. Usually, I wait until 3 weeks into the season and then start with placing wagers. This was not a really good decision, because in the first games I didn’t make a profit and this was also the main reason why my closing line value numbers were not that good. Later into the season CLV numbers and the profit raised.
Sports betting analytics adjusted
Because I was betting a little bit earlier I also had to adjust bet statistics and later update the spreadsheet. In my MLB betting spreadsheet, I have created a so-called odds converter that turns the estimated percentage to moneyline. It is based on historical stats, lineups, players stats in a combination with different matchups.
Results and MLB Bet Types
My average play was 1.36 units per play and I made +15.20 units of profit with the yield of +10.14% (some call it ROI. You can read the difference here). Dime bettors made more than +$15k in less than 3 months (first bet was made on 23.7.2020 and the last was made on 14.10.2020).
- $100 bettors made $1,520 of profit
- $1000 bettors made $15,200 of profit
MLB Trends and underdog betting in baseball
Only 32.14% of all bets I was placing were underdog bets. One of the reasons why less MLB underdog bets is that I use adjusted kelly criterium and the second because I simply look for value bets. I don’t bet only underdogs, because the only logical bet is of course a value bet. And this is the difference between my estimated percentages and implied percentages from bookmakers. Underdog betting is not profitable in the last years (5200-7667, ROI -5.4%), but of course, that doesn’t mean that it will be the same in 2021.
In most cases, baseball handicappers give too much weight to the trends or they use them just to write an analysis. I don’t use MLB trends in my mlb betting model, because if some pitcher went 6-1 on a sunny day that doesn’t mean anything. And this definitely doesn’t mean, that he will go 7-1 after 8 games. Trends will tell us what happened, not what will happen. And this is most of the time wrongly interpreted from baseball cappers.
It was another profitable mlb betting season for me and I hope you did it well too.
MLB betting model is part of Sports Betting Model Course.
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