“David is an incredible person and I am happy that we became friends. His understanding and knowledge of statistics and sports betting are simply amazing. When I started betting in 1998, a lot of bettors made a lot of money only because bookmakers made a lot of mistakes. But the world is changing and bookmakers are smarter than ever. Reading news, watching the games and betting on so-called winners is not enough anymore. if you want to win at sports betting, it is crucial to use statistics and find a value. The ability to identify a value is a skill limited to a certain few. David is one of those few, that has the knowledge, skill and the ability. His projected lines and statistical models are unique, that’s why when anyone asks me which site I recommend to follow it’s his site and his projected lines. He will give you that extra value, that you need for winning. Not only, that you will meet one of the smartest guys in the business, he is also one of the nicest. Hands down!”
MB, Underdogchance.com

Article about professor David in NY Post: Meet the stats professor who’s beating the house on NHL bets

Professor MJ: 2 NHL Picks for Friday November 24!

Hello hockey fans, today I’m announcing a major change to my NHL picks. As a matter of fact, I’m going to give them a whole new orientation and I hope you’ll enjoy the new approach.

I have decided to stop doing the write-ups, and instead focus on the development and the tracking of specific NHL betting strategies. I have access to data on 9 full NHL seasons (2007/2008 to 2015/2016). I have written down a list of potential winning strategies that I intend to investigate and I will share the results with you.

I have already completed the analysis of the following angle that I call “The NHL Streak Breaker Play”:

Considering the public’s tendency to overreact to recent results, should we bet on NHL teams which are currently on a losing streak facing a team riding a winning streak?

The answer is “yes” under some specific conditions. The research itself is done, but writing and structuring the article which unveils the details is not. The likelihood of posting this report within a week is very high.

Meanwhile, there are two games tonight that meet the criteria for betting according to this strategy so I wanted to let you know about them:

PICK #1: Detroit Red Wings +149 (decimal 2.49) at New York Rangers

PICK #2: Ottawa Senators +165 (decimal 2.65) at Columbus Blue Jackets

It’s important to note that I’ll keep track of the performance of “The NHL Streak Breaker Play”. The money lines stated above were taken from Pinnacle around 10am Eastern Time.

Not only are we going to monitor the morning lines, but also the closing lines. Why? This strategy will recommend fading the public the vast majority of the time (i.e. going against the grain). Therefore, I suspect that most of the time the money line will go up as the day progresses so it might be preferable to wait until we get closer to puck drop before placing your wagers. But as a statistician I always prefer to obtain data rather than going with my “gut feeling”.

So it will be interesting to see if the line does indeed tend to go in our favor from the morning until the start of the game. We’ll then have statistical evidence of whether we should place our bets early or not.

I will let you know as soon as the article is live. If you have ideas of potential strategies that you would like me to explore, don’t hesitate to email me (info@professormj.com).

Thanks a lot for following my work, I hope to provide as much value as I can!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #12!

Hello savvy sports investors, how’s it going? We are coming off a disappointing week where we got one correct pick and two that were wrong. Our season record is now 24-15-2, a 61.5% success rate.

I’ve got 4 picks for you this week, and I do feel good about them.

PICK #1: San Francisco 49ers +7 vs Seattle Seahawks

If you believe the fatigue factor is important when handicapping NFL games, then this one is for you. Rest is definitely in favor of the 49ers here. Not only are they coming off their bye week, but the Seahawks played Monday night, thus losing one day of preparation. To top it all off, San Francisco will be at home for a fourth consecutive week after hosting the Cards and the Giants and being on a bye. That is seldom seen in the NFL, especially combined with the 8 extra days of preparation over what Seattle has.

One more thing I like about this pick is the fact that the Seahawks might overlook this game a little bit, as it is being sandwiched between a key matchup with the Falcons last week, and a tough challenge against the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles next week. The only factor I don’t like about this game is how the Seahawks might be mad and motivated following a home loss on primetime television.

The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 12-9 loss earlier this year against those same Seahawks in Seattle. Paul Richardson caught a 9-yard TD pass with 7 minutes remaining to put the Seahawks up for good, but they definitely had trouble handling the Niners. Seattle swept the season series last year, but they struggled in San Francisco in a 25-23 win, a game where they trailed 14-3 early on. The Seahawks made a comeback before pulling some starters in the fourth quarter because it was the last game of the season and it turned out to be meaningless for them.

I could see the Seahawks crumbling through the rest of the season and missing the playoffs. Their defense is banged up, their running game is average at best, and Russell Wilson has been running for his life on many occasions. Thank God he is great at escaping the pressure and extending plays, otherwise they would be doomed with such a mediocre offensive line. I don’t believe they will win by more than one touchdown on the road.

PICK #2: New York Jets +5 vs Carolina Panthers

Both teams are in similar conditions with respect to the rest factor. They are both coming off their bye week and neither team has had to travel much recently. As a matter of fact, prior to having the week off, the Panthers had played a couple of home games in a row, while the Jets had played two out of three games at home.

I’m afraid the Panthers won’t show up in top form this week. First, their last game was a cakewalk when they handled the Dolphins easily by a 45-21 score. Also, they might get caught peeking ahead to their upcoming showdown in New Orleans on week #13.

The cold weather might come into play as well. At the time of this writing (Tuesday November 21), it is expected that it will feel like one degree Celcius or 34 degrees Farenheit next Sunday. That could go in favor of the Jets, who are more used to that kind of weather, especially quarterback Josh McCown who has played a few seasons with cold-weather teams like the Browns and the Bears.

The Jets have been tough to beat at MetLife Stadium this year. They are 3-2, with their only two losses occurring against the Patriots by a 7-point margin and the Falcons by a 5-point deficit, so basically nothing to be ashamed of. Granted, the Panthers are 4-1 on the road, but keep in mind they have lost 17-3 at Chicago.

PICK #3: Chicago Bears +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

Most bookies currently have the Bears as 13.5-point underdogs, but Bovada has set the line at 14 (as of Tuesday November 21). More sportsbooks might follow them considering the public is betting heavily on the Eagles following their impressive win in Dallas that pretty much locked the division title for them. 80% of gamblers are taking the Eagles, both against the spread and straight up. That’s what generally happens when you have a team riding an eight-game winning streak against a team who is on a 3-game losing skid.

Like I said earlier, the Eagles are almost guaranteed to win the NFC East and are coming off a big emotional showdown in Dallas. A letdown is certainly conceivable, especially considering they have the Seahawks up next. It would be very easy to look past a much weaker Bears team. Philadelphia’s past three games have been too easy: the average margin of victory was 26.3. This looks like a textbook trap game for the Eagles.

The Bears should not feel too tired since their past two matches were at home, and they were on a bye before that. They certainly have nothing to lose and will be looking for revenge following a 29-14 home loss to Philadelphia last year.

You might be surprised to hear that the Bears have had many good performances against top teams this season. They lost 23-17 to the Falcons in their opener and were just 5 yards away from pulling the big upset. They beat the Steelers in overtime. They only lost by 3 points against the Vikings. They beat a solid Panthers team by two touchdowns. And they only lost 20-12 in New Orleans. That’s five good outings when facing teams from the upper tier. Combined with the likely letdown by the Eagles, I like the Bears to cover the 14-point spread.

PICK #4: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs New Orleans Saints

The winning streak is still alive for the Saints, but they certainly showed some signs of weakness last week when they had to overcome a 15-point deficit late in the 4th quarter to defeat the Redskins in overtime. Their defense looked stingy in their previous four starts by allowing just 12 points per game on average. However, look who they faced in those games: Buffalo, Tampa Bay minus Winston, Chicago and Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers. There is not a single scary offense among those teams. They finally played against a potent offense last week, and they ended up allowing 456 total yards and 31 points to Washington.

The Rams did not look so great either in a 24-7 loss to Minnesota. They will be looking to go back on the winning track right away, and will hope to avenge an embarrassing 49-21 loss in New Orleans last season. They are ready to show Drew Brees’ squad that they are not the same team that they saw in 2016. Jared Goff has significantly improved his play, the cast of players surrounding him is much better, and I do like what new and young head coach Sean McVay has done with this team.

I doubt that the Saints will be overlooking such a strong Rams team, but they might still be a little bit distracted by their critical meeting with divisional rivals Carolina Panthers next week.

Ok so this is it for this week’s NFL write-up, I hope I was able to bring some valuable insight to you. If you appreciate the work that I do for free, remember that you can always help me by clicking the affiliate links in my sportsbook reviews the next time you want to open an account with a new bookmaker.

Thanks for reading this report, I appreciate you, best of luck on the 49ers, the Jets, the Bears and the Rams picks, and I’ll be back next week for more predictions and analyses in the NFL. Bye bye!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: 4 NBA Picks for Wednesday November 15!

Busy night in the NBA with 11 games on the menu; I’ve got 4 value plays for you, and a slight lean on a specific team. Let’s dive right in!

PICK #1: Sacramento Kings +4.5 at Atlanta Hawks (rated 4 stars)

Before the season began, Vegas’ lines implied that the Kings would finish the year with a .341 record compared to .311 for Atlanta. Based on each team’s start to the season, do we have STRONG indication that those numbers were wrong? My personal answer is “no” (though some people may want to argue with that).

Sacramento is 3-10, while Atlanta is 2-12. Both teams have played many more games on the road than at home. Some may argue that the Kings have done worse against the spread (ATS) by going 4-8, versus 6-7 for the Hawks. To me, the numbers are not strong enough to make me deviate from the initial win percentage projections.

So the Kings might be a slightly stronger team, and you’ve got Atlanta that will be a little more tired tonight since they will be playing a fourth game in six nights. And from an injury standpoint, the Hawks are slightly more banged up too (Muscala is doubtful to play and Ilyasova should be back but on a limited basis, while Vince Carter doesn’t have an important role as shown by his 2.6 points per game average and his 12.0 minutes per game).

If you add that all up, my statistical models are claiming the Hawks should be 0.8-point favorites. With a spread of 4.5, I’m definitely taking the Kings. I am basically challenging a 2-12 team to win by 5 points or more. I would even be tempted to buy a half point to force them to win by 6 points or more in order for my bet to lose.

PICK #2: Charlotte Hornets +2.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (rated 3 stars)

At the time of this writing, most bookies have a line of 2, but Bovada and Sports Interaction are still posting 2.5 (the latter even has Charlotte +2.5 at -105, which is great!).

The status of Derrick Rose seems unclear at the moment, but the team said that he will be back when feeling 100% so I feel like he is more likely to wait at least one more game. Meanwhile, the Hornets will welcome Nicolas Batum back, who will make his season debut. He was their second-leading scorer last season, but he should get limited minutes in his first start. That might still be a good emotional lift for a team that is going through a four-game losing skid (all four on the road at San Antonio, Minnesota, New York and Boston).

The Cavs will be playing a fourth road game in a row. I’m a bit worried about the fact that Cleveland has defeated the Hornets on the previous six meetings (5-0-1 ATS in those games).

The rest factor plays in favor of Charlotte since they got four complete days off since returning from their most recent four-game road trip. Their legs should be fresh tonight!

PICK #3: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves (rated 2 stars)

My main concern is the Spurs coming off a couple of games against weak opponents (Chicago and Dallas).

However, San Antonio has beaten the T-Wolves on 14 consecutive occasions. They are feeling comfortable playing in Minnesota; not only have they won their previous six trips over there, but they have beaten the spread every single time (6-0).

I have penalized the Spurs for playing the second of back-to-back games by multiplying their estimated win percentage by 0.84. It went from 44% to 37% following this adjustment, which corresponds to a 4.1 spread. Since the line is 5.5 and they have owned the Timberwolves, I’m backing the Spurs.

PICK #4: Portland Trail Blazers -5 vs Orlando Magic (rated 1 star)

This matchup features a team playing a fourth consecutive road game against a well-rested team that has been hosting their last six matches (that’s right, 6!!). That’s a big advantage.

The Magic might letdown a little bit after playing the top team in the league, the Golden State Warriors. After storming out of the gate with a 6-2 record, they have now gone 2-4 since then (which was to be expected considering they were projected to finish the season with a .402 record). They are starting to drop more and more in the standings.

Orlando is going to play a fourth game in six nights.

LEAN (unofficial pick): New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs Toronto Raptors

My projected lines are in according with the spread, but I’m tempted to bet the Pelicans for a few reasons. First, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raptors letdown following a big road win in Houston last night. Secondly, Toronto is playing a third straight road game, while New Orleans will be at home for a third consecutive time. The Pelicans will be looking to avenge a 122-118 loss in Toronto six days ago. However, the team from Canada has defeated the Pelicans on the past five meetings (going 3-2 ATS in those games).

Good luck on your plays and have a great evening!

Professor MJ

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