Fun fact : all 5 favorites beat the spread last night! I happen to be taking a favorite today, my only play of the day.

PICK: Toronto Raptors -5 vs New Orleans Pelicans (rated 2 stars)

My projected lines based on my statistical models are Pelicans +6.4 versus Raptors-6.4. The difference with the actual spread is not very big, but I see many situational factors favoring the team from the north.

First of all, this will be New Orleans’s fourth straight game on the road, so they’ll have quite a bit of traveling in their body. In contrast, Toronto will be playing a third consecutive match in front of their fans.

The Pelicans have defeated their opponents on all first three games of their current road trip: at Dallas, at Chicago and at Indiana. They might already feel like their mission has been accomplished; who would blame them if they lost tonight? No pressure, but less motivation. Also, notice the strength of opposition they have faced; their combined record is 9-24 thus far this season. Not a great way to be ready to face a tough Raptors team.

Toronto came out with the victory on all four most recent meetings with New Orleans, going 3-1 against the spread in those games.

Thanks for reading and have a nice day!

Professor MJ