About my free sports betting picks
Underdogchance is NOT a sports betting picks service. All my betting picks are completely FREE, I don’t sell any picks subscriptions, any guaranteed picks or something like that. I share my bets, projections and my betting philosophy to stay transparent and honest with my betting journey, but the main goal of my work and this site is to help bettors to become independent handicappers or investors in sports. Not followers, who follow other people’s picks, but that they learn how to create their own unique betting method.
I bet since 1998 and I am pretty familiar with betting world too, because I was active on first betting forums, chat groups, secret tipsters forums, betting portals, I constantly read betting books and if there is one thing that I learned in the past is that followers never make any money in sports betting. Sports betting world has changed since I made a first bet. Bookmakers are smarter, bettors are smarter, odds move quickly, lines are sharper, beating the closing line is very important topic, … and many other things. But the average bettor stays the same. The only thing an average bettor is looking for is a winner. Little bit more advanced followers are looking for value bets or even betting projections, estimated probabilities, that can be later compared with bookmakers. But the general mindset is the same for all bettors – find someone, who will make betting picks, then bet the same picks and make money. Of course this is not how betting and betting market works. Most followers, who look for picks never make money in sports betting. And usually gamblers and bettors who never make any money in betting will disagree with me. People who make money in sports betting always make their own bets, they try to beat the closing line and try to take the advantage against the market. I talked about the losers and winners of sports betting world in this article. This “following betting picks” mentality is one of the main reasons, why 98% of bettors never make money and at the same time it is a huge advantage for betting sites and bookmakers.
Sports betting is a relative competition against the betting market – this is something every bettor must understand from the start. In other words, you are not fighting only against bookmakers, but also against other bettors. And in this world of numbers you must pay better “prices” (odds) than others. The problem is that most bettors don’t have the edge against the market and most of the betting picks are based on gut feeling. In other words it is like a flip coin experiment, where on small bet sample size many bettors “win” because of luck. The problem starts when there is more and more bets, because the results regress to the mean and bettors lose because of margins, vig or juice if you like. Good bets must be based on hours of researching into the statistics and data and where you get your estimated probabilities before you bet. Only this can give you the picture about expected value (+EV), which is the key if you want to make money in sports betting.
What to bet, for which price and when are very important questions before you even place your bet. But because the odds move all the time and every bettor has his own unique style, his unique bookmaker and unique betting strategy, blindly following betting picks will not work for most people. I constantly see bettors, who pay for betting services and follow their picks and never make money. Even if they win something in short period of time, they lose long term.
First of all if we want to beat bookmakers (and the market) we need to beat the margins. This is the commission that bookmakers take from us every time when we bet. Secondly, if you find a sharp bettor, that makes picks based on algorithms and beat the closing line, his odds will drop in most cases. If you are late, you will lose, because when we take into account three things: margins, odds dropping and the edge that this bettor has it is very unlikely that you will win if you will follow his picks. Plus if we take into account picks subscriptions, that can go from $50 per month to even $25.000 per month nobody has such edge that it will overcome all this obstacles for you with current bookmakers limits.
I understand that nobody will tell you this, because betting picks are the most attractive way to gather sports bettors. Even when I check statistics of my site, this is what bettors look the most.
But I hope, that this message will help some percentage of sports bettors, who will start looking into the knowledge and understanding the market instead of just blindly follow any picks.
You can use my picks, bets or tips as a reference or even as one part of your analysis. It is never recommended to bet blindly sports betting picks, especially if you don’t follow or understand the league/sport. The smartest investors in the world will always say – never invest in something you don’t understand and this is the same for betting – never bet something you don’t understand. Sports betting is not passive income, like many like to describe it. But is is unique (daily) active investment, where you must place a bet with the right amount, at the right time and at the right price. If not, then it is only a matter of time with more and more bets, when the margins will start eating you alive.