FREE Sports Betting Picks based on Betting Models

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About my free sports betting picks

Underdogchance is NOT a sports betting picks service. All my betting picks are completely FREE,  I don’t sell any picks subscriptions, any guaranteed picks or something like that. I share my bets, projections and my betting philosophy to stay transparent and honest with my betting journey, but the main goal of my work and this site is to help bettors to become independent handicappers or investors in sports. Not followers, who follow other people’s picks, but that they learn how to create their own unique betting method.

I bet since 1998 and I am pretty familiar with betting world too, because I was active on first betting forums, chat groups, secret tipsters forums, betting portals, I constantly read betting books and if there is one thing that I learned in the past is that followers never make any money in sports betting. Sports betting world has changed since I made a first bet. Bookmakers are smarter, bettors are smarter, odds move quickly, lines are sharper, beating the closing line is very important topic, … and many other things. But the average bettor stays the same. The only thing an average bettor is looking for is a winner. Little bit more advanced followers are looking for value bets or even betting projections, estimated probabilities, that can be later compared with bookmakers. But the general mindset is the same for all bettors – find someone, who will make betting picks, then bet the same picks and make money. Of course this is not how betting and betting market works. Most followers, who look for picks never make money in sports betting. And usually gamblers and bettors who never make any money in betting will disagree with me. People who make money in sports betting always make their own bets, they try to beat the closing line and try to take the advantage against the market. I talked about the losers and winners of sports betting world in this article. This “following betting picks” mentality is one of the main reasons, why 98% of bettors never make money and at the same time it is a huge advantage for betting sites and bookmakers.

Sports betting is a relative competition against the betting market – this is something every bettor must understand from the start. In other words, you are not fighting only against bookmakers, but also against other bettors. And in this world of numbers you must pay better “prices” (odds) than others. The problem is that most bettors don’t have the edge against the market and most of the betting picks are based on gut feeling. In other words it is like a flip coin experiment, where on small bet sample size many bettors “win” because of luck. The problem starts when there is more and more bets, because the results regress to the mean and bettors lose because of margins, vig or juice if you like. Good bets must be based on hours of researching into the statistics and data and where you get your estimated probabilities before you bet. Only this can give you the picture about expected value (+EV), which is the key if you want to make money in sports betting.

What to bet, for which price and when are very important questions before you even place your bet. But because the odds move all the time  and every bettor has his own unique style, his unique bookmaker and unique betting strategy, blindly following betting picks will not work for most people. I constantly see bettors, who pay for betting services and follow their picks and never make money. Even if they win something in short period of time, they lose long term.

First of all if we want to beat bookmakers (and the market) we need to beat the margins. This is the commission that bookmakers take from us every time when we bet. Secondly, if you find a sharp bettor, that makes picks based on algorithms and beat the closing line, his odds will drop in most cases. If you are late, you will lose, because when we take into account three things: margins, odds dropping and the edge that this bettor has it is very unlikely that you will win if you will follow his picks. Plus if we take into account picks subscriptions, that can go from $50 per month to even $25.000 per month nobody has such edge that it will overcome all this obstacles for you with current bookmakers limits.

I understand that nobody will tell you this, because betting picks are the most attractive way to gather sports bettors. Even when I check statistics of my site, this is what bettors look the most.

But I hope, that this message will help some percentage of sports bettors, who will start looking into the knowledge and understanding the market instead of just blindly follow any picks.

You can use my picks, bets or tips as a reference or even as one part of your analysis. It is never recommended to bet blindly sports betting picks, especially if you don’t follow or understand the league/sport. The smartest investors in the world will always say – never invest in something you don’t understand and this is the same for betting – never bet something you don’t understand. Sports betting is not passive income, like many like to describe it. But is is unique (daily) active investment, where you must place a bet with the right amount, at the right time and at the right price. If not, then it is only a matter of time with more and more bets, when the margins will start eating you alive.

How you Define Good Sports Betting Picks?

We must understand that sports betting is basically a market, where you pay different prices – the odds. If you pay good price, you can expect that you will be long term winner. If you pay bad price, you will probably lose. What I wanted to say is that the price is the key.  And the prices are basically odds. And the odds are basically probabilities turned into the numbers. It’s all about the numbers.

So for me a good sports bet is always based on the numbers and focused on the value. The value can be explained on a very simple way if you compare your estimated probabilities against bookmakers probabilities. If you think for an example that your team’s fair chances are 65% and bookmakers offer you the odds, that represent the chance of 50% you have the edge.

So the question is how you get these numbers. All serious businesses, investors and professional bettors stay away from non-rational decisions. Behind every bet must always be a strong analysis, betting models, estimated probabilities (betting projections), algorithm or any other research that is based on data and statistics.

I for example create tables like this below, where I estimate my own probabilities and then I compare my odds with bookmakers odds. If there is enough big difference between the odds, this makes a qualified bet for me.

Example of my MLB sports betting picks (bets) based on statistics and betting model:

Sports Betting Spreadsheet – Free starting course Learn How to Build One

This is the way how I look for the value, where I eliminate my emotions and stick to the numbers.

Second thing is very important to understand is that the price and it’s movement will tell you if you made a good bet. I will exclude live betting here, because this is another beast and very complex thing, but if we focus on pre-game betting, beating the closing line in sharp markets is very important.

The bet is good if you bet Patriots -7 and then just before the game will start Patriots are -10 (for an example). No matter of the result, this is what makes a good sports betting picks. Too many bettors focus on the games and watch the results, blame players, even handicappers, but basically betting stops, when the game starts. Closing lines incorporate all the information about the game, including from betting perspective (sharp action, public money, line movement,…). If you constantly bet on the odds, that are better than closing odds you can expect to be a winner in sports betting.

Good Sports Betting Picks must be based on betting models and the research, where we exclude emotions and minimise the luck factor. This is the way how to find the value and the bet is a good bet if you pay “better” price then it was just before the game starts (closing line).

Every betting or gambling advice should always include probabilities and the last price, that is still worth taking. And this must be estimated based on betting formula, not just based on blind guessing.

Example: Bet Red Sox at +140 or better. With this we tell what is the last price that is still acceptable. Or even better if we provide estimated projected betting odds, probabilities, totals or spreads.

MLB Betting Picks

Baseball is my favourite sport to bet, because of many reasons and trough the years I developed my own baseball betting strategy. A lot of bettors ask how to bet baseball, because when baseball season starts all other leagues are basically shut down (most of the games are played in summer, when other major US leagues NHL, NBA and NFL, CBB and CFB have offseason). And an average bettors mind is always looking for action. This is I believe also the reason for many bettors to start digging into major league baseball handicapping.

When I started betting baseball cca 15 years aga I saw a huge potential, because I loved the numbers and there is no other sport or the league with so many games in one season. MLB has 2430 regular season games + playoff games. So it is harder to fake the results on such big sample size, because when we don’t have big sample size many bettors win because of luck too. For comparison cca 10 NFL seasons (258 games) is like 1 MLB season (2430 games) in terms of analysing the games. Baseball handicapping is part of my life for more than 15 years and I must be thankful for baseball to live life I live now. I always looked to improve my baseball betting strategy and keep the pace with growing betting market. And of course this is not the end, the journey continues and the more I learn the more I realize how much I still need to learn.