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PHILADELPHIA (Leiter) +163

  • Bookmakers line: +163 (2.63)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +109 (2.09)
That was a very exciting game yesterday between Philadelphia and Washington. 11-10 at the end and Philadelphia almost came back after they were trailing almost whole game.
Philadelphia is playing pretty well right now. Their season is over, but they have couple of talented players, who hit pretty well. In last 7 days they scor 6.3 runs/game and even is we exclude yesterday’s game, they score 5.6 runs/game in other 6 games.
Washington on the other side 5.3 runs/game and those two wins against Philadelphia were not easy one. Both by 1 run and really exciting games.
Washington started with Scherzer yesterday and they had one of the best pitchers on the world on the mound. They had huge pitching advantage. But I think this will not be the case here.
Jackson will start for Washington, who has ERA of 3.29 to the season, but his other numbers are not ok and this ERA number needs some regression. He walks too much compared to his strike outs (16/40 and 8/11 in last 17 innings) and I don’t think, that Wasington will have any starting pitching advantage here.
On the other side we have Leiter, who has ERA 4.93 but his skilled ERA numbers are better compared to Jackson.
I have projected, that Washington will still have better chance to win this game (52.14), but not close to bookmakers numbers. I expect, that if I bet on Philadelphia and if they win, that I make $109 of profit for my risked $100. Bookmakers will pay me $163, which is more than I would expect and because of that there is a value with Philadelphia.
Win or lose, Philadelphia is the right play today.

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KANSAS (Junis) +102

 

Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins are fighting for playoffs and despite Kansas has losing record (69-71), they still have more than realistic chances to reach wild card. And this game is one of those, that they must win.
I don’t like to bet based on such things like “must win”, because most profitable betting for me is analytics, that I use, but sometimes I use also mu gut to make recomendations. And this is one of those games, where my model doesn’t support Kansas play.
I have projected, that Kansas will have around 45.49% of chance to win this game, which is less than 50% and bookmakers have them set as a small underdog.
But still I like couple of things here. Minnesota beat Kansas yesterday and they are on the second wild card spot and if hunting wild card position was easy for them, I think holding this position will put them into totally different position. But if we check the record of teams, that are fighting for AL wild card, Minnesota has 74 wins and Kansas 69. So there is 5 game difference. Note also, that there are also 5 other teams with 69-72 wins, that will attack Minnesota and there will be some pressure for sure on them.
Minnesota will start with Berrios, who 12-7 to the season with ERA of 4.01. But there are two things, that are going against him. He is just 4-6 on the road and his road ERA is 5.43 (lower = better). The second thing is his bad record against Kansas. He played 4 games against Kansas and his team lost all for games. His ERA in those games is 8.19. And those games were in 2016 and the last in 2017, where he allowed 5 runs/9 hits in 5 innings.
On the other side we have Junis, who will pitch for Kansas and he has very solid season (5-2, ERA 4.71, whip 1.24) and he didn’t lost home game yet (5 games, 2-0 record).
I like Minnesota how they play and they are definitely one of the most underrated teams this season (74-67 +10.6 units), but I think that Kansas will step up in this one. Minnesota will not have any pitching advantage and if I take into account Berrios’s bad history playing against Kanas, I think Kansas is a good play.
Play Kansas as home underdog.

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