Betting projection = my estimated winning percentage turned into the numbers (odds). I project winning percentage for every single game and then I look at the games, where my odds are much different than bookmakers odds.
CLV = closing line value. According to Pinnacle and other top sportsbooks in the world this is the most important indicator if you are a long term winner or not. Pinnacle: “The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.”
Goalie – Starting Goalie for the team. I use different sites to check the info about starting goalies. If the goalie is not the same, the projected odds can change.
GP – Games played by goalie in last 2 seasons
SV% – Save percentage in last 2 seasons
xGF – expected goals by the team
B2B – days off. If B2B = zero rest. Normal = other situations. Adjusting the numbers for b2b games
M+/Adj – small adjustments of the numbers because of other reasons. Some members use this very successfully for motivational factors in last games of the season, when some teams play for nothing and other play in must win situations.
Win% (My projections) – My projected win% for both teams.
Odds (My projections) – My projected odds. The formula = 1/win%
US (My projections) – My projected US odds. Converted from decimal with the formula: =ifs(D>2,((D–1)*100),D<2,(–100)/(D–1),D=2,“+100”) where D = decimal odds.
Total (My projections) – My projected total
Decimal (Bookmaker) – Decimal bookmakers odds
US (Bookmaker) – US bookmaker odds Converted from decimal with the formula: =ifs(D>2,((D–1)*100),D<2,(–100)/(D–1),D=2,“+100”) where D = decimal odds.
Fair win% (bookmakers) – Fair win% by bookmakers excluding the margins.
Total (bookmakers) – bookmaker total
Total (diff) – The difference between my projected total and bookmakers total. I am looking for at least 1 goal diff.
Value – it is adjusted kelly criterium formula, looking for number 1 or more. This can change after some time if I see, that bigger value plays have better clv, btl, yield, profit,… it depends from sport to sport how I set this. If the value in this example is 1 or more, this is qualified bet. If not, the bet is not qualified.