WHAT IS NFL BETTING CHALLENGE?
NFL is a new sport for me from betting perspective. But I love this sport and a lot of friends follow NFL, this is why I decided, that I will challenge myself to create some simple betting model, that will give the first picture about those games.
The goal is to create some very simple model, that will calculate my spreads and the totals. After that I will compare my totals with the bookmakers totals. I will bet those games, where my lines will be much different than bookmakers lines and the totals.
This is more for fun right now for me, but because I like to research and I like to work on those kind of things, I will try to create something, that will help bettors without complex formulas.
WHERE WILL I BET?
I will bet on Cloudbet if you want to follow me. They have great odds on NFL (1.95 vs 1.95 / -105 vs -105) and I will bet with bitcoins. Note also, that Cloudbet has probably the best welcome bonus in the world from all bookmakers – up to 5BTC. You can SIGN UP HERE and CLAIM 5BTC.
WHAT KIND OF MONEY MANAGEMENT WILL I USE AND HOW MUCH WILL I BET?
I will use flat staking system and will start with 0.002 BTC (on this day = 90 USD) . For the whole season I will bet 1 unit, which will be exactly 1% of starting bankroll. It will be small amount of 0.002 BTC. Note that this is a betting challenge for me and I don’t know if I will make any profit. The main idea is to research this sport and create something that is very simple.
Note also, that lines will open usually at the start of the week and then the lines will move. I will try to bet the first day on those lines and then I will check the lines daily and if the lines will change in my favour, I will bet extra games.
SIMPLE, NOT COMPLEX
I saw a lot of rankings, fantasy sheets and all kind of experts and analysis about NFL. I will not go that deep. I will keep it simple. I am not going deep with projections for every single player, I will use team stats and if you want to use my projections, adjust the lines and the totals for injuries or some other info that you have. A lot of times simple is better than complex thing. And I will try to create something simple, but successful.
I expect, that the model will be useful from WEEK 5 until Super Bowl.
At the start I will bet on games, where my spreads and totals are different from Cloudbet for 5 or more points.
Create simple betting model in google sheets for NFL, that anyone can use and include into personal betting analysis. I want to create something, that everyone without math knowledge can use.
WILL I MAKE A PROFIT?
I don’t know. The main goal is not a profit, but to challenge myself in new sport and challenge myself to create a simple predictive model for NFL. Profit is not in the first plan. I could test the model with numbers only, without betting, but I like this way. I like to be involved in realistic betting in NFL with small amount of money, that I can forget without any problems. You should understand that, if you want to follow me or use my numbers in any way. The challenge is a small journey into NFL betting for me.
HOW TO FOLLOW MY PROCESS AND PICKS?
I will not send any emails or something like that. I will just put the picks in the sheets below, so you can always come here and check the plays in a sheet and I will also share plays on Instagram and Twitter. That’s it.
AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST IMPORTANT…
All information and picks given out are for informational and entertainment purposes only. This information is not intended for any use which might promote any illegal activity or violate any of your local, state or federal laws. I do not share in any gains, nor am I liable for any losses that may occur as a result of the use of any information, recommendations, opinions, or picks provided. Although I may display past results, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Some of the hyperlinks within this email may be affiliate links. If you have a gambling problem please visit Gamblers Anonymous.