What is MLB betting and why we should bet baseball?
Baseball favourite sport to bet and there are couple of reasons for that. Since I bet with the numbers, there is no other sport that has such big data sample size. Baseball is all about statistics and sports betting analytics, where we have in one season 2430 regular season games. Every team plays 162 games per year, plus at the end of the season we have couple of more playoff games. This gives us a lot of opportunities to bet every single day. We can pick up to 15 games eery single day during baseball season. No other sport has so many opportunities during the season.
What are most popular MLB betting markets?
The most popular betting markets in baseball are money line, totals betting, run line and 1st5 inning (1st half) betting. Most of my bets are money line mlb bets, but I also bet more and more 1st5 inning bets.
How important are starting pitchers and bullpens in MLB betting?
The pitchers dictate the odds, which are the key when it comes to sports betting. Every team has at least one very good pitcher and at least one below average or average pitcher. It can happen, that in one day very good team will play with weak pitcher against weak team who will have very strong pitcher on the mound. This will of course have a big impact on the odds. The next day it can happen, that weak team will start with weak pitcher and on the other side strong team will play with strong pitcher. The odds will be completely different. It can of course happen that one day first team will be MLB underdog and the second day the other team will be underdog. Starting pitcher has a huge impact on the odds, but we still must not forget, that this is just one part of equation. Starting pitchers will usually pitch in average around 5.5 innings. Even the pitchers, who can stay little bit longer in the game will not go more than 7 innings per game in average during the season. We still have 4 innings to go in most games, where reserve pitchers (bullpen) will decide the game. And this must be taken into account. Many rookie baseball bettors simply ignore that part and they just focus in starting pitcher. Always remember, that you should not ignore the last 40% of the game, when the winner will be decided.
What is the benefit of MLB 1st half betting markets?
We already know how important bullpen is and how they are key factor late in the game. The problem with the bullpen information for mlb sports handicappers is that we never really know which relievers (reserve pitchers) will replace starting pitcher. It all depends on coaches strategy and different baseball strategies during the game. But we know who will start the game, so you can focus on the pitcher who will start the game and simply ignore the last part of the game. 1st5 innings or 1st half betting is among most popular betting markets for baseball handicappers.
What is betting the run line in baseball?
Run line is basically mlb handicap or spread betting, where bookmakers usually set the line at -1.5 or +1.5. It is very similar to NBA / NFL spread betting, where your bet most cover he spread. Example: If you bet Boston Red Sox -1.5, your bet will be a winning bet if Red Sox win by 2 runs or more.
Do you like betting the totals in baseball?
I am not big fan of betting totals in baseball and I usually stay away from totals. I only make a bet on totals if I find bigger discrepancy between my projected totals and bookmakers offered totals. Of course I am not saying that this is not profitable baseball betting market, because it clearly is and there are baseball handicappers that make money on totals too, but I am not that big fan of totals betting. But if you consider betting totals you should always take into account ballpark factors, because some baseball stadiums are pitchers friendly, where hitters score less runs and on the other side we have ballparks and environment like Coors Field in Colorado, where hitters score easily more runs. The second factor that is also important is weather, which can be many times unstable and it is always a prediction.
What is considered best MLB baseball bet?
For me the best MLB baseball bet is always based on the numbers. It must have two key information: estimated probability independently from bookmakers and then after you bet the odds should drop. If the odds drop before the game starts we can talk about beating the closing line. In such markets like MLB the best MLB bets are those bets that beat the line.
Is it important to catch early baseball odds or it is better to wait until the game starts?
Baseball betting market is considered as a sharp market and it is very important to understand how these markets work. Bookmakers will open the odds, which are basically prices that we pay. Later they will start moving the price because of many reasons. Sharps will start betting and move the line and liquidity will grow and just before the game will start, the price that you want to pa is the most efficient one. It will include all information about the game. And this price is very precise and you can not beat on the long run, because bookmakers will win because of margins. Closing line is very important topic in sports betting World and the sharpest bookmakers use this information to identify sharp bettors. Betting on closing odds in baseball, when the prices include all information and when the market is very efficient is bad idea.
Baseball betting strategy
I use my MLB sports betting model to estimate my probabilities for every single MLB game. Then I turn these probabilities into the odds and compare them with bookmakers odds. If there is enough discrepancy based on my criteria between my odds and bookmakers odds, then I make a bet. I use adjusted kelly criterium to calculate recommended risk. If there is bigger discrepancy between my projected MLB odds and bookmakers MLB odds, then the stake is bigger.
What is sabermetrics and how can I use it for baseball betting?
Sabermetrics or SABRmetrics is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Baseball is all about statistics and you can basically find anything you want. No other sport offer such a big sample size of games and data. And of course it is important how you use this data and turn into probabilities. Many baseball handicappers make big mistake, because they take public and mainstream baseball statistics for betting, but ERA and Batting Average has much less predictive power then some other statistics, like FIP, SIERA, wOBA,…
MLB betting Trends
I don’t use any mlb betting trends for my bet predictions, because they are in most cases useless. For every trend, there is an equal and opposite trend that contradicts it. Trends don’t have predictive power and will only tell you what happened in the past. If one pitcher went 7-1 at home on a rainy day, this has nothing to do with what will happen in the next game. Most trends are taken out of the context and are manipulated as anyone wants. Trends are used for two reasons in sports betting world. First reason is that bettors feel better when they make a bet if such situation was 7-1 in last games for example. And the secondly, many baseball handicappers use trends to include in their analysis so the prediction is more attractive. They don’t use probabilistic methods or any sports betting models, they simply back bet with the trends so everyone feels better. I am not saying that past information and situation are not important. Of course it is important, because we all use past information to predict the future, but most trends are taken out of the context on small sample size and has no predictive power. In most cases trends will hurt bettors. I don’t use trends. I use statistics and then I turn information in probabilities.
How and why I started betting baseball?
I come from Europe and my favourite sport to watch and play was soccer (football). And of course I started to bet soccer, but because I loved also math and statistics, I soon realised how these numbers and market works. Sports betting enlightenment starts when you understand the difference between betting and sports. Betting is all about investments, the numbers, statistics and probabilities and the sport is used only as a pool of information and money (people). It could be anything, where a lot of men are willing to risk some money. Watching sport, playing sport and love for the sport will not make you profitable bettor. Understanding the numbers, outsmarting the market, betting strategy will make you a profitable bettor. Once I realised this, I decided to research whole market and I was looking for a sport, where I am not emotionally involved and where I can use a lot of statistics. And this is how I started researching and betting baseball. I didn’t bet something I love or even worse – something I wrongly think I understand, but I started betting something, where I thought I can beat the market. Sport and betting are 2 separate things.
What is a good MLB bet prediction?
We can find a lot of betting analysis on the internet and once you understand how betting market works and how important is to catch the right price at the right time, most of you will stop bothering with both – following and reading these analysis. Analysis are there to build betting communities. Let’s think about this. If you want to write good bet prediction you will need 1 hour to include all probabilities after you analyse them. Then this analysis must be delivered to public betting audience and then someone must read it and after that decide to bet. If the mlb bet is sharp bet, you will be late.
I am not big fan of following picks and one of the key messages of this site is that you stop following other people’s picks and start making your own betting decisions at some point.
But if we talk about good bet prediction it must include probabilities compared to bookmakers implied probabilities (odds). I call such information betting projections. I use my sports betting spreadsheets to find the value bet.
MLB betting spreadsheet
Here is example of my MLB betting spreadsheet and how I estimate my odds and probabilities. My method is looking for discrepancy between mu estimated mlb odds and bookmakers odds. To get my private mlb betting model to download you must be a member.
The sheet is separated in two parts. In the fist part I estimate my mlb odds and compare them against bookmakers mlb money line. In the second part (right side) I compare my projected odds for the first half. The most important information is Value report, that is based on adjusted kelly criterium and will show me, where is potentially mlb value bet.
Best online baseball bookmakers?
Baseball betting is very popular in USA and more and more bettors all around the World see the opportunity, especially because when baseball season is on, all other major leagues are basically shut down. For international players / Worldwide bettors – Pinnacle and Matchbook, are very good options.
Best online baseball betting sites (USA)?
All US friendly bookmakers offer variety of baseball odds and some of the best online baseball betting sites are Bovada, MyBookie, Betonline,…
Bitcoin online baseball betting sites
Cloudbet, Nitrogensports and Sportsbet.io are currently the best bitcoin betting sites (the bookmakers account balance is held in bitcoins) at this moment.