MLB Sports Betting Prediction: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Cleveland Indians (Bauer)

Cleveland Indians (Bauer) vs LA Dodgers (Kershaw)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Public will be huge on LA Dodgers and of course there is a reason for that – Clayton Kershaw, probably the best pitcher in the world last couple of seasons. Bookmakers also set the Indians as a pretty big underdog at home. They set the odds of around 2.50 on Cleveland. However, I think, that this is little bit too high on Cleveland. I have projected, that this game could be much closer. My math model has Cleveland at 2.12 (+112) and I give them around 47.1% of chance in this game. I expect around 1.12 units if I bet 1 unit on Cleveland Indians and if they win. Bookmakers have them at around 2.50 and because of that I get more. This is just qualified value bet for me.

Match Up
Clayton Kershaw is pitching well and it is very hard to hit against him. ERA of 2.20 to the season and despite he has one loss in his only game against Cleveland, we can ignore that game, because it was in 2008.

On the other side we have Trevor Bauer, who will pitch for Cleveland Indians and he is 5-5 to the season with ERA of 6.1, but as I said many times, ERA is not goof future predictor and he is pitching much better. After all he has 76 strike outs in 62 innings and his skilled interactive ERA is much better (3.66 in 2017). In the last game at home, he pitched well – he struck out 14 Oakland batters, but then he had two bad outings on the road.

When we talk about bullpens, we have two top bullpens in the league. The only question is how deep will Kershaw go. He is pitching in average 6.9 innings per start. On the other side Bauer will probably go 5-6 innings (5.9 innings per start at home).

LA Dodgers score 4.8 runs per game, but on the road 4.2 and their road batting average is lower on the road too. In last 7 games, they score only 3.7 runs per game.
Cleveland on the other side are still not playing like we expect from them, but season is still long and they still have a lot of power in their lineup.

Reason for pick
LA Dodgers score 3.7 runs per game in last 7 games and today they will play without Adrian Gonzalez one of their most experienced players. We all know what we can expect from Kershaw, but also Bauer is pitching much better at home and I don’t see any bullpen or hitting advantage in this game. If he can repeat the last home game I think we have an open game at the end. We must not forget, that Cleveland is still last years finalist and one of the top teams in the league, despite, they didn’t show everything yet. Based on my projected numbers, they should be lower underdog and this game could be much closer.

Play Cleveland as a home underdog @2.70