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Betting projection = my estimated winning percentage turned into the numbers (odds). I project winning percentage for every single game and then I look at the games, where my odds are much different than bookmakers odds.
CLV = closing line value. According to Pinnacle and other top sportsbooks in the world this is the most important indicator if you are a long term winner or not. Pinnacle: “The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.”
Pitcher – Projected starting pitcher for this game
Hand – Pitchers hand (L – left / R – Right)
Rank (Pitching) – My pitchers rank, where 100 is average. Lower number = better versus league average. Bigger number = worse versus league average.
Season (Pitching) – Pitcher Skilled interactive ERA. Lower number = better.
BP (Pitching) – Team Bullpen rank
Ovll (Hitting) – Team Overall hitting rank
L30 (Hitting) – Team Last 30 days hitting rank
vs R (Hitting) – Team Hitting rank versus right handed pitchers
vs L (Hitting) – Team Hitting rank versus left handed pitchers
Win% (Projections) – My projected odds winning percentage for this game.
US (Projections) – My projected US odds. Converted from decimal with the formula: =ifs(D>2,((D–1)*100),D<2,(–100)/(D–1),D=2,“+100”) where D = decimal odds.
EU (Projections) – My projected EU odds. Formula = 1/win%
AdjK (1.5) (Projections) – Expected odds to become a qualified bet
My total (Projections) – My projected total.
Book – Bookmakers odds. Taken from sharp bookmakers (Pinnacle) at the time when I made projections.
Side (Value report) – The formula shows automatically on which side is a value. It will tells us only about value, not if this is qualified bet. For being a qualified bet we use extra criteria.
V(1.5) – it is adjusted kelly criterium formula, looking for number 1.5 or more. This can change after some time if I see, that bigger value plays have better clv, btl, yield, profit,… it depends from sport to sport how I set this. If the value in this example is 1.5 or more, this is qualified bet. If not, the bet is not qualified. The bigger adjK, the bigger value. Here is the breakdown from the season 2019 with different adjk