MLB Betting Model Tips

Rays (Snell) vs Dodgers (Gonsolin)

Record 2020: 63-47, +15.20 units

This is maybe the last game of this season. Dodgers are leading 3-2 and after they spend a lot of money in last years to win the World Series, they are very close now.

They have been a very good team whole season and if we check their hitting numbers, they will also have advantage against Rays in this game. Scoring 5.8 runs per game versus 4.6 from Rays.

Rays will start with left handed pitcher Blake Snell on the mound. He pitched 4.67 innings in the last game versus Dodgers and allowed only 2 runs, which was impressive. But 4-5 innings will be not enough in this one, because the game is played 9 innings and I believe in last innings Dodgers will have the advantage, because they have better bullpen and they also have better hitting team.

The question is how will Gonsolin pitch in this one. He went only 1 inning last time against Rays, where he allowed 1 run and his ERA in postseason is now 9.32 with the record 0-2. But this is of course not the whole picture. His overall season ERA is 3.31 and his whip is 0.96 which is even better than Snell (whip 1.24).

Betting Model Prediction

My betting model gives Dodgers 60.28% of chance to win this game. And of course to find a value, which is the key if we pull a trigger or not, we must compare our projected odds with bookmakers odds.

My projected odds and bookmakers odds are too close to make a bet. Not enough value.

But when it comes to percentages and small value, I think we have small value with the Dodgers. They have a better chance to close this series and this season today.

No bet for me.