Atlanta (Sanchez) -114 (2 Units)
Giants lost 10 straight games now and they know that their season is over. Couple of injured players and I think they are not in a good position now. Atlanta on the other side is playing well, winning 5 out of 6 games and they will start with Sanchez on the mound, who has been very consistent so far. ERA 3.17 to the season and winning record 6-5. On the other side Giants will start with Holland, left handed pitcher, with ERA of 3.78, but this could be good situation for Atlanta today. They are one of the best hitting teams versus lefties this season and despite Holland has ERA of 1.96 in last 3 games, this is not true picture about his pitching, because he also walked 11 hitters in last 3 games (18 innings). Better pitcher, better team and good situational match up for Braves. I am taking Atlanta.
Milwaukee (Anderson) +129 (1.02 Units)
Milwaukee Brewers will start with Anderson and I don’t give them any pitching advantage here against Cubs, because I rank Hendricks little bit higher. But later in the game, in last innings I give advantage to Milwaukee Brewers bullpen. They have one of the best bullpens this season. According to my projections, this is 50-50 game and because of that I am taking Milwaukee.
Kansas (Skoglund) +111 (1.02 Units)
Two teams, that are not playing for anything anymore and we will have two left handed pitchers on the mound. At the first look White Sox have better pitcher, if we focus on ERA, but as I said many times, ERA is not the best future predictor and according to my rankings, I think we have pretty same pitchers here. Rodon, who will pitch for White Sox, posted ERA of 3.11, but he also walked 25 batters in 50 road innings. Kansas rested Perez and Salvador yesterday and they are also plying better right now, than White Sox. They won 8 out of last 12 games, while White Sox are not playing that well at this moment, losing 7 straight. Bookmakers have Royals as a small underdog and I give them 52.76% f chance in this game.
San Diego (Lucchesi) +149 (1.57 Units)
This is pure value play. No the play, where I would give better chance to San Diego, but value play based on the difference between my projections and bookmakers odds. We have two pitchers and two bullpens, where I give small advantage to San Diego. Lucchesi, who will play for San Diego has been very solid this season and I rank him higher than Leblanc on the other side. Seattle bullpen is 8th ranked, but San Diego bullpen is slightly better. Despite Seattle has better and more talented hitting team, I have projected that this game is close to 50-50 and because we got some very solid odds on Padres, I took San Diego here.
ARI/COL Under 10 -118 (1 Units)
We have two very good pitchers on the mound today. For me Gray is the best Colorado pitcher and he will face Arizona, who is not that good hitting team against right handed pitchers. They also score little bit less on the road. On the other side Colorado is very solid hitting team against lefties, but they will face a pitcher who is 8-3 against them. But if we ignore those information and stick to my betting model, I have projected, that this total should be at around 8. Bookmakers have set total at 10 and because of that I think we have a value with under play here.
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