Making big money, winning bets, locks, guaranteed bets, huge winners,… sounds good, right?
But this is just bullshit and I will be harsh here, because we need to repair bettors minds and if I can change at least one mind, it is worth. I don’t care about what some people will say, because conclusions are based on my 20 year experience in sports betting world.
I saw a guy who made more than 2700 bets with yield of more than 17% and his followers can not make profit with his picks. If you don’t know and understand what is yield, ROI, CLV,… learn today or just stop betting, go do something else in your life. It is the same if baseball player would not know what is double play or QB doesn’t know what is touchdown. If you didn’t have motivation so far to learn basics about sports betting like yield, basic probabilities, …. you will never win and you will lose money. And those basics are free on the internet. Instead of watching Game of Thrones or being on instagram whole day, learn fucking basics.
Well…if I think twice…such lazy and foolish people should lose money, so bookmakers can pay us who make that small profit and that work hard on analysis and understanding betting. I don’t sell picks and will never sell picks, because I think it is wrong. But if I think twice, the prices should be much bigger for picks subscriptions. They should charge you $5000 per month.
YES. $5000 and more per month!
The foolish average Joes get what the foolish average Joes deserve. In the wild, weakest animals die. In sports betting naive bettors will lose money and will not survive. And those 95% of foolish people pay and work for those 5% that make money in sports betting world. They pay bookmakers, betting services and of course winning bettors. Winning bettors will get paid from bookmakers, because they are paid by foolish bettors. Is this ok? Well…it looks ok, if there are bettors/gamblers who invest in something that they don’t understand.
If you can not understand the concept of sports betting and making money in 2018 or 2019 with all the free information about betting on the internet, then you deserve to lose. Period.
So, let’s go trough couple of things, that bettors, gamblers, losers or whatever you call them, can not understand. And you know what it is amazing when I see smart people, from college, from universities, from math background, that still don’t understand what I will write here.
Why is this so? Some people will say, that our society is to soft now and when we lived in caves we were always under some risk and people need risk, this is why they gamble. But this should not be the reason, because when you start losing money all the time, I don’t know if this is fun anymore.
So what I will write here is not a rocket science. If you can not understand those simple concepts, you have no chance in sports betting or anywhere similar to betting. There are still other jobs and ways to make money. Go buy a garden and sell beautiful flowers. Flowers are always good. But don’t bet if you can not understand those simple concepts.
The fucking number one rocket science: THE CONCEPT OF MAKING MONEY
If you want to make money in sports betting, you need to take an investment approach (I don’t know which other approach could work). What is the concept of making money if you invest?
The concept is very simple. You need to invest in something with big potential. You can buy a real estate now for $300,000 and later sell it for $400,000. You made a profit. You can buy a car for $10,000 and sell it for $15,000. You can invest in stocks for low price and sell it for bigger price. Right? I hope you agree with me.
There is no other way. The concept of making money is to invest in something with big potential.
The fucking number two rocket science: THE PRICE IS THE KEY – NOT STUPID WINNERS
But what is the key here?
THE PRICE. THE PRICE. THE PRICE.
You need to be smart enough to buy a car for $10,000, so you can sell it later for $15,000. Right?
I think this is not hard to understand. Just take an example. We have two cars. Ferrari and Ford. Ferrari is let’s say a winner and Ford is not a winner.
So let’s say you are a car dealer….and you have a wife and you send her to buy a Ferrari, so you can sell this Ferrari later for bigger price. But you don’t tell her what is the last price to buy a Ferrari. She can buy Ferrari for 1 mio USD or for $20,000. But she doesn’t care, because she got a “PICK”, she got a “WINNER”. She will buy it no matter what the price is. And she will buy it for 1 mio USD. But you can not sell this car for more than 1 mio USD and you lose money because of this. So, you have winning pick, but you still lose. Wife = bettor who make a bet from other people without understanding anything.
On the other side you can make a profit with Ford if you can buy it for $4,000 and sell it for $5,000.
It’s not rocket science to understand this.
It is always about the price. It is always about understanding the price. You must understand for which price you buy this car and for which price you can sell it.
But what most bettors do? They look for winners, locks. Not odds, not closing line value, not probabilities, expected value,… but “winners”.
If you don’t understand the price, you will never make money in sports betting (not anywhere else).
How to come to the numbers and prices, well… this is another topic, which I will left for next time.
The fucking number three rocket science: THE PRICES are THE ODDS
In sports betting those prices are the odds. It is not rocket science again and if you can not understand this, stop betting.
We have the same bet or pick if you like:
NY Yankees -110
after 3 hours
NY Yankees -135
It is not the same price is you bet on Yankees -110 or Yankees -135, because if you bet on Yankees -110 you need to pay $110 to win $100. If you bet later, when the odds drop you pay more. You need to pay $135 to win $100.
It is not the same if you pay a car $5000 or $7000
It is not the same if you bet $110 or $135 for the same profit. Come on….this is not hard to understand.
It is not focus on who will win, but what is the price.
Winning bettors and potential future winning bettors understand this.
The fucking number four rocket science: DON’T BE A FOLLOWER
One of the problems you will face is odds dropping. For example, this season I beat the line 83.78% of time on international basketball league games. What this mean? This mean, that when I bet the odds drop later most of the time.
You as a follower will never get the same odds (price) and this is why you lose money.
Following is not winning mentality (I hope you agree with me – to understand this = not rocket science) and you need to find the way how to beat the market by yourself, because you have your own prices.
Just take an example of the bet Goyang +5.5 on December 5th, 2018
I took Goyang +5.5 at 1.93 (-107 US odds)
then the odds dropped to 1.66 for the same bet (Goyang +5.5)
What this mean for an average bettor when they follow other people’s picks?
We have the same bet. If you follow other people’s bets on the long run, you will probably lose money. Sharp bettor, who bet for himself (and has his own method and the knowledge how to pick games) can make nice profit. I took my basketball record and I took an example if bettor is playing with $100 per bet. So he will make more than +7000 USD of profit in this example. On the other side if you are a follower and if you are too late and if you don’t know for which price you buy the odds (= bet), then you can fall into the group of Follower 1 and Follower 2.
Most bettors don’t have any money management, nor the discipline to bet anyway. But let’s take “rare example”, that Follower 1 and Follower 2 have enough basic knowledge how to bet and they both started with $10,000 of a bankroll and their initial bet is $100.
They would make a huge loss in both cases. And usually when bettors follow good picks, they pay for subscriptions too. Most services charge at least $100 per month or more (there are services, that charge $1000 per month, but let’s take $100 per month as an example). So follower needs to pay $1200 for subscriptions in one year. This is $6000 in 5 years. And one bettor will basically lose his whole bankroll in first or two years, despite his advisor make a profit.
Of course not all games and the odds will drop in advisors favour. But in general if you follow profitable bettor, he will beat closing line and that means that most of the time you will get worse price.
The fucking number five rocket science: LEARN FIRST – BET LATER
Do you think that doctors first make surgery and then they go to medicine school?
Come on guys. I think my 4 year old daughter understand this.
Do you think you will drive safely on a road and then go to driving school?
Do you you think that engineer builds a bridge first and then he learns about building the bridges?
NO. All those things lead to a disaster.
But what bettors do?
They bet first. This is the first thing they do. They think that they watch games and they will find winners. And we saw, that it is not point in finding the winners, but finding the right price or value, if you like.
So, if you don’t know how to turn probabilities into the odds, then either go and learn or simply do something else in your life. Do you want to bet $100? Send to red cross. There are people that need this money.
So, you don’t know what is yield, what is ROI, what are implied probabilities, how to calculate bookmakers margins? You have no chance. You are just wasting your time. All those things are free on the internet and the only thing you should do so far is to use one site, which is called “google”. If you can not do this, you will lose.
The fucking number six rocket science: SUCCESSFUL SPORTS BETTING HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SPORTS WATCHING
“I am big fan of baseball, I watch every game. I can pick winners”
Come one guys. Be serious. This has nothing to do with reality.
Watching sports, love for the sport is one thing. Betting/Investing on sport is another thing.
When you watch sport, you are focusing on the winners, on fun and to do this you need just a beer and good company. Of course you will hit winners sometimes, so you can brag about yourself on twitter. After all, there are usually 2 possible outcomes if you watch games (home win, away win). Of course you will hit something.
But when it comes to investing/betting I believe your goal is to make money. And in this case, this has more in common with investments, probabilities, statistics, math, then with watching sports. You need to beat the market if you want to make money. If you still don’t understand this simple concept, you are wasting time reading this. After all, we need you to lose, so bookmakers can pay us.
It requires good strategy, analysis, so you know what is good price to bet, discipline, realistic expectations,….
What do you think, who is on other side? What do you think who are bookmakers? Do you think that those are some kids playing with computers? No. Bookmakers are very smart companies with best experts who work 24/7.
Why do you think, they change the price (odds) if this the odds are not important? Odds are important. Not “winners”, “locks”, “guaranteed plays” or other marketing material for foolish people.
It is all about the price. It is not about winners. And if you think that you are a “good” sports fan that can pick winners you will lose sooner or later. If you are looking for winners instead of value, you will lose. Even if you find someone with good “picks” you will not get the same price and if you are want to follow other people’s picks, you are in that stage “YOU DON’T KNOW THAT YOU DON’T KNOW”. If you are in the dark when it comes to the prices, then you will never be successful trader, investor or a bettor.
Write it down 10x times on your paper until you don’t learn:
- Don’t follow anyone
- Don’t look for picks, rather look for numbers, probabilities, win %, knowledge,…
- Learn to bet for yourself. This is the only way how to win
- Following = losing mentality and you are wasting your time
- I saw a bettor who made more than 2700 picks with the yield of +17.08% which is absolutely amazing. But his clients/followers couldn’t make a profit, because they didn’t have a clue about money management, betting, statistics,….
- Spend extra time to learn about betting on the internet, rather than looking for picks.
Final note: If you made it this far and read my texts, you must understand one thing – I intentionally wrote such harsh post, because I want to shake heads little bit and change some people’s minds. The problem is that most bettors don’t know that they don’t have a clue about whole thing. And not even where to start. But at the same time they are to lazy to research the whole thing and learn how to bet. If I can change at least one mind and one gambler, so he starts researching betting and because of this he becomes a winner or he just sees, that this is not for him (and because of this stop losing money), I am happy. It is enough for me. It was not intention to offend anyone, but I wanted to shake your head, motivate you, so you start thinking out of the “gamblings” box. Hate me because of this post, but use my advice (stop following anyone and start learning how to bet, what are probabilities, etc…) and come back after one or two years. I am sure you will see sports betting world with different eyes. Start researching: “CLV in betting”, “Projections in betting”, “Betting models in betting”.
All the best