Let’s say, that I tell you: “Mercedes is a very good car. Buy a Mercedes for $40.000”
You decide that you will buy this car. But when you want to buy a Mercedes, the price jumped to $46.000. Will you buy it or not?
You don’t know, because you don’t know the true value of Mercedes. And I also didn’t tell you the true value, because I simply don’t know how to estimate the true value of this car.
THIS WAS A PICK
The basic concept in our life, when it comes to money is that we buy things for low price or at least for fair price. It is the same with all kind of investments (buy low, sell high), it is the same concept when you go to a store or a market,…and it is the same concept when it comes to a sports betting.
If you always buy things, that are overpriced, you will lose money. Right?
Making a pick is very easy. Anyone can make a pick and I would never pay for a pick.
Example of picks:
- Bet on Lakers -7 (1 unit)
- Bet on Boston Red Sox +124 (3 units)
- Bet on Real Madrid @1.78 (1.5 units)
The problem is…
that those prices are changing all the time in sports betting. I don’t believe, that Mercedes price is changing every 10 minutes, but in sports betting and some other investments, especially speculative, the prices are changing all the time.
To make money, you need to buy things for the right price. If you buy high and sell low, you lose. If you buy low and sell high, you win.
What will you do, if you follow someone and you get those prices:
- Bookmaker: Lakers -8
- Bookmaker: Boston Red Sox +110
- Bookmaker: Real Madrid @1.97
Will you bet on
- Lakers -8?
- Boston +110?
- Real Madrid at 1.97 only 1.5 units, despite the price went up?
You don’t know, because you didn’t have the projections or if you like you didn’t have the winning percentages to see what to bet, when to bet and how much to bet.
And here we come to PROJECTIONS.
Projections will tell you the price. Projections will tell you your winning percentages, your spreads and your totals. The basic concept to win at sports betting is to bet on games, where you give your team better winning percentage than bookmaker. I hope you agree with me. Those projections are made independently and without bookmakers. When I make projections for NBA for example, I estimate my own spreads and then later bookmakers throw out their lines. I simply compare my prices with their.
Example of projections:
- Lakers -12
- Boston +160
- Real Madrid 1.30
The projections will tell you this:
- Play Lakers if you get Lakers -11 or better (-10, -9, -8,…depends on betting model and method)
- Play Boston for the price of +161 or more (depends on the method)
- Play Real Madrid for the price of 1.31 or better
In other words (if we take Boston example):
- I will play Boston only if someone (bookmaker) will pay me at least $160 for my every risked $100.
- Or for example….I will buy a Mercedes only if the price will be $41.345 or less
If the bookmaker will pay me only $110 (the odds of +110), I will not bet on it, because I will pay too much. Paying too much all the time = losing money.
Betting on the wrong price = losing money.
PICKS WITHOUT PROJECTIONS ARE USELESS
When I started betting I must say, that I understood the concept pretty quickly. The biggest problem was how to estimate the odds, how to calculate winning percentages. I already understood, that betting on the right price is the key concept. But I also knew, that creating some imaginary price in my head is also not the right way.
Bookmakers were smarter and smarter and even those local bookmakers didn’t make any mistakes more. The prices were sharper and sharper and I was trying to find the way how to estimate my own odds and winning percentages.
Of course this can not be made in your head without any formulas or without betting model. I hope we all agree with this. Owners of sportsbooks don’t wake up in the morning and take a paper and say: “ok, Lakers will be -3, Celtics will be -4,…or maybe -4.5….let it be -3.5…”
So, if I have pick from someone: “Boston +124”, I simply don’t know what to do with this. It is almost not possible, that the price is the same.
I also don’t know if I should buy a Mercedes for $46.000. Right?
And the pick without projection is almost useless. Betting without previously projecting the winning percentages, is nothing else than – guessing. Some handicappers can guess well, but at the end of the day, if you follow them, you will not know when you should bet the game or when you should stay away.
- PICKS will tell us nothing else, than what to bet
- PROJECTIONS will tell us for which price you should bet something
And the price is the key!
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