COLORADO (Gray) +165

  • Bookmakers line: +165 (2.65)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +145 (2.45)
Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies will play a wild card game and the bookmakers set the odds around +155 on Colorado, the odds dropped at the start and right now, when the game is close to start the odds went up again and there is a small value with Colorado. At least based on my model.
Colorado will start with Gray, who won 2 of last 3 games versus Arizona and he pitched really well in last couple of games. ERA 2.12, 20 strike outs in last 17 innings and i think he is the right pitcher for this game. Not only, that he pitched well twice this season in Arizona, he also struck 10 Arizona hitters in those two games on the road.
Greinke in the other has a very good season with the record of 17-7, but he also lost 2 out of last 3 games versus Colorado and in last couple of games he was not that sharp (last 3 games ERA 5.62). Of course, I believe he will be at his best, but still I don’t see such a big difference between today’s starters. I rank them both pretty equally.
When we talk about the hitting, Colorado scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Arizona scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Colorado OBP 0.335, Arizona 0.326. Colorado.
When we talk about bullpens, I also rank both bullpens pretty same.
What I want to say is that we have pretty equal match up everywhere and I think this game could be really close one. There is no speculations and both teams will give their 100% effort. And if we talk about injuries, Arizona is still missing Ahmed, Owings and couple of other players, while Colorado doesn’t have any important injuries.
I still think, that Arizona should be favourite here, but I still give more chances to Colorado, than bookmakers.
Play Colorado (Gray)