A lot of bettors are confused with “THE BEST ODDS” and “THE BOOKMAKER WITH THE BEST ODDS”. Those two things are totally different and we should understand the difference.
THE BEST ODDS
So, what are the best odds? The best odds are those odds, which will give you the best profit. Simply as that. If you want to play on Team A, you will look to get the best price. So, if you have 5 bookmakers accounts and if you want to bet on Team A and the odds are:
Bookmaker 1 (bet on Team A): +130 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$130)
Bookmaker 2 (bet on Team A): +145 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$145)
Bookmaker 3 (bet on Team A): +132 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$132)
Bookmaker 4 (bet on Team A): +138 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$138)
Bookmaker 5 (bet on Team A): +128 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$128)
You will bet on second bookmaker, because you will get the biggest return for the “same thing”.
BOOKMAKER WITH THE BEST ODDS
But does that mean, that the best odds have always the bookmakers with the lowest juice? NO. It depends on which team you want to bet. A lot of times you will find the best odds on TEAM A with bookmaker 1 and the best odds for TEAM B with bookmaker 4, for example. This has nothing to do with margins and it is recommended to have several bookmakers accounts, so you can always get the best price, which can be the difference between profit and loss at the end of the season.
So, what are the margins?
In a very simple way, this is how much money you lose when you bet. Every bookmaker will take some money, when you bet, for their service, if I can say so. Some bookmakers will take more, some will take less and the general rule is that we like to stick with the bookmakers, that have smallest margins/juice. Because of that, we can expect, that we will get the best price in most cases.
How to calculate margins?
When you have two teams and if bookmakers set the chances at 50-50, the fair odds would be +100 vs +100 (2.00 vs 2.00). Right? But of course, you don’t see this. They will offer you something like -105 vs -105 or -110 vs -110 or something like that. The easiest way to calculate margins is to turn the odds into the percentages, sum them and see how much far is from 100% (easiest explanation):
TEAM A: -105 (1.952) turn into the percentages = 1/1.952 = 0.512295082
TEAM B: -105 (1.952) turn into the percentages = 1/1.952 = 0.512295082
0.512295082 + 0.512295082 = 1.024590164 = 102.46%
The difference: 102.46% – 100% = 2.46%
You will lose that money every time when you bet. The biggest is this number the worse for you. Simply as that.
LET’S TAKE REALISTIC EXAMPLE AND EXPLANATION WITH TODAY’S GAME
We have a game between the Dodgers and Padres today and we have different prices and different bookmakers. So, the question is where to bet to get the best price for your bet and will this mean, that this bookmaker has the lowest margin?
Here is the table with the odds and margins, plus my projected lines for this game.
THE BOOKMAKER WITH THE LOWEST MARGIN
5DIMES (lowest margin of 1.97%)
5Dimes has the lowest margins and this is one of the bookmakers, that you must have and must play there, because in general, you will have the best odds in most cases. Their margin is just 1.97% in this game, which is by far the best among all those bookmakers.
But of course, the lowest margins is not a guarantee if you want to play on your favourite team. Nitrogensports has bigger margins, than 5Dimes in general, but they sacrificed good odds on Dodgers to offer little bit better odds on the San Diego. If you want to bet on Dodgers, Nitrogensports is not the right bookmaker, because you will get better odds on all other bookmakers. But if you want to play on San Diego, Nitrogensports has the best price and this is the place where you should bet them. (And Nitrogensports is my favourite bitcoin bookmaker out there – SIGN UP HERE)
THE BEST ODDS IF YOU WANT TO PLAY ON DODGERS?
LUNARBETS at -227 (EU odds = 1.44)
On the other side if you want to bet on DODGERS, the best price is on Lunarbets. They have second lowest margins, which means, that you will get better odds in general still on 5Dimes, but for this game, if you bet on Dodgers, you must:
pay $227 to win $100 on Lunarbets
pay $341 to win $100 on Nitrogensports
And you don’t want to pay more for the same thing. Right?
WHAT MY PROJECTED ODDS SAY AND WHAT IS MY PREDICTION?
This is the second game today and in the first game Padres beat the Dodgers, but in this game, Dodgers will have pitching advantage in my opinion.
Jordan Lyles will start this season with first game for Padres, so he will be fresh and in this cases I stay away from bets, because I simply don’t know how he will perform in a new season. I like to see players in new season. So, if I put league average pitcher as a starter for San Diego, I give them around 35.25% of chance to win this game, which is still much less than 50%. My fair odds for San Diego is +184.
Dodgers on the other side will start with Darvish, who has been playing great (177 strikeouts in 160 innings this season) and he already beat San Diego in 2017. With the best NL team behind him, I have projected, that the Dodgers will have around 64.75% of chance. That gives me the odds of around -184.
And where is the value?
The value is with San Diego. I expect, that bookmakers offer the odds of around +184 on San Diego. Nitrogensports offer the odds of +287, which is more than I would expect. I would expect, that I make profit of $184 if I risk $100. But Nitrogensports is willing to pay me $287, which is $103 more than I expect. Because of that there is a value with San Diego.
The question is, are you willing to put a money on a game, that has only 35.25% of chance? On the long run, this is the right thing to do. But if you want to win today, your chances are less than 40%.
https://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/mlb-padres-dodgers.jpg520920MBhttps://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/logostran.pngMB2017-09-03 03:55:412020-05-07 17:14:56Explained how to decide where to bet on a real example: Dodgers vs Padres?
I usually don’t answer such messages on Facebook. I also don’t take such messages seriously, but I was curious and I was in that mood, where I said myself, let’s see what kind of nonsense will this guy try to sell me.
Why nonsense? Because there is no such a thing as a “3–0 tonight” or “guaranteed bets”, if you like. Anyone with little bit knowledge about sports betting knows, that the odds are simply probabilities turned into the odds and if there is one event, that has 100% of chance, bookmakers would never ever offer such a bet. So, talking about 3–0 night or guaranteed things in sports betting is little bit crazy. But this is a topic for another time….
So, I answered just for fun and curious to see what is coming: “YES, I AM READY!”
The guy answered: “I am 5–0 in last 5. I am going for 8 in a row.”
By the way, the guy went 2–1 that day, but this is not important, because the worst handicapper can go 8–0 and the best handicapper can go 0–8 on any day. Of course, we can also discuss about the average odds and the probabilities here, but if we stick with -110 odds, this can and will happen on the long run to anyone.
I quickly answered: “This is a luck”
He said: “No. It is a skill”
So, I asked him: “Show me the results of last 1000 picks”
He answered: “840–160”
I started laughing and asked him to send me detailed results in a sheet, so I can check it. Of course he didn’t have.
He closed his account right after our conversation.
But after that, his friend started conversation with me. For me they looked like a team. He was very friendly and he said, that they are top betting service in Las Vegas, who work with top clients.
Ok, so I asked him: “Can you show me the results if you are so good? I don’t ask you future bets, I ask you just past results with the odds, stakes, games and risk compared to bankroll”
I spent exactly 56 minutes and he didn’t show me any results. He said, that he will show me results if I come to his office in Vegas and if I pay. Why should I pay for past results?? if I want to buy a Mercedes today, I want to know how fast it is, right?
What is the problem with past results?
I understand, that if you sell picks, that you will not show me future picks. That is totally ok. But why you don’t show past results? Last 1000 picks at least if you claim, that you have clients, that bet $20.000 per bet? To build a business, where you sell one advice for $1000 or something like that, I expect detailed results with yield, detailed risks, odds, bookmakers, etc for at least 5000 picks from last 5–10 years.
But of course, the guy didn’t have any results and this is how I realised, that most of those services make money with the SERVICE, not actual BETTING. And believe me, they are making huge money.
So, how is this possible, that there are people, that will buy a Mercedes without knowing how fast it is? And what are the things, that betting services know and don’t want that foolish people will ever understand.
Hiding the results
I am from Europe and I am amazed how good are American handicappers with hiding the results. If you go to a random betting site from Europe, there is a big chance, that they will have detailed results with the yield, ROI, odds ad everything else, but if you go to random betting site in USA, they will hide most details. In best cases you get “W-L record” and “profit” for current season, which is nothing. Nothing.
I was talking with couple of US handicappers and most of them are very friendly. But when it comes to past results, I hardly find any US handicapper, that sell picks, that has detailed past results (yield, ROI, avg odds, risks compared to bankroll, bookmakers,…), which can he send you right away in csv file.
Most of them jump from betting site to betting site, where they share their picks and when they change 10 different betting/monitoring sites, of course they will win somewhere. But we are not talking about how to win at competition, but about last 1000 picks in a csv file, so you can calculate for yourself what is ROI, yield, what was money management,….
And then decide if it is worth to pay for the pick.
I am also surprised, that monitoring sites don’t calculate yield, bookmakers info, starting bankroll,…. For me the record of 240–215, +32.15 is nothing. To make final conclusion before you pay for the picks, you need more information.
The odds are the key for sports betting, right? If you make a play or not, the odds will decide. I hope you agree with me. It’s not about who will win, but about the right price or the value if you like. In other words, if you think, that one game is 50–50 and the bookmakers will offer the odds of +130, you will play this team. if they will offer -130, you will not play this team. Right?
So, what most betting services will not tell you is the line movement, that will happen for sure. If you bet online, you know, that if you bet little bit bigger amount of money, the line will move. And now imagine if you have 100 clients and if they all bet $1000. And you are 87th who will place the bet. What do you think will be your price?
Do you think, that the price is not important?
50% of bets on +101 = profit
50% of bets on -101 = loss
Price is the key and you will get lower price on good bets in most cases.
Bookmakers Limits and taking into account the cost of the service
If you bet online, bookmakers have their limits and they will not let you to beat them. Most of them. So, if you pay for one pick $25, how much starting money you need to have and how to take this into account?
If you bet $100 on a game, you need to have around $5.000-$10.000 of starting bankroll. Betting small amount of your bankroll is important and this is a topic for next time. Online bookmakers will allow you to bet usually not more than $5000 (Bovada, 5Dimes,…) per bet. Usually $1000 and if you beat them constantly you will get into the trouble. But to bet $1000 per game, you need around $50.000 — $100.000 to invest properly.
Here is an example:
If you bet $100 on a game and if you pay $25 for one pick (this price I see all over the internet), which is small compared to prices in Vegas, your odds are lowered. And here is how.
Bet $100 on the odds of +100 and if you win, you make profit of $100. Right? When you take into account, that you paid for the advice $25, then you basically made only $75 of profit. That means, that you risk $100 and you won only $75.
What if we turn this into the odds?
What are the odds, when you win $75 by risking $100?
-133. So you basically don’t bet $100 on a game with the odds of +100, but -133. And the results?
Here is what happen:
As you see, betting service can claim, that they make +6000 units of profit with win% of 56 (this is almost not possible on odds of +100 on the long run, but is good for our example) and at the same time, you will make a loss, because you take into account the cost of the service.
When you take into account the results and the cost of the service, betting services usually can not reach such a winning percentage. This is also one of the reasons, why they hide or don’t show complete results (with yield for example). This is also one of the reasons, why most betting sites, monitoring sites hide all the details about picks. “W-L” record and “Profit in Units” is flawless. Simply as that.
Nobody is guru. Nobody is number 1 in the country
They all claim, that they are number one in country. Betting competitions are not realistic. With competitions you don’t need to deal with bookmakers limits, with dropping odds right away, with your own discipline, etc…. And in most cases you have unlimited bankroll and you can leave when you want. In real life if you work couple of months for your bankroll, this is not a joke and this is definitely not a unlimited bankroll. So, the things are quite different, right? Betting competitions are not realistic. Simply as that.
Things are changing quickly, bookmakers are smarter and smarter and if you won a competition in 1997 and you are not willing to learn new things, you are out. Intuition and experience are nice. But they should be taken together with facts. And analytics is all about that. Either you are smart and work hard, either you lose. Don’t buy “guru” stories in 2017, be smart.
Most services make most of the money with service, not actual betting
Sports betting is not easy. To beat bookmakers today you must use analytics to find the edge, you must play on bookmakers, that will accept your bets, you must have strong money management, you must be very disciplined,…. and even if you are successful with all those things, there is a chance that you will not make money at some point.
But if you sell picks, you need only two things: A lot of foolish people + good marketing. Why bother with statistical analysis if you can make much more money selling picks.
I can guarantee you — most betting services make most money with selling picks, not with actual betting on sports. A lot of them don’t even bet. This was confirmed to me personally from someone, who runs successful sports betting service in USA.
https://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/girl-1076998_1280.jpg12201280MBhttps://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/logostran.pngMB2017-08-26 01:20:092017-08-26 16:36:085 Facts about Sports Betting that Betting Services Don’t Want You to Know
“Your picks are shit. Everyone has good and bad runs…you been cold lately”
Those are the words from guy yesterday, who is obviously following me and it gave me an idea to write this article.
The funny part is that I am not even on a cold streak now. I was cold at the beginning of the MLB season, but not now. Just working hard every day to beat bookmaker with no big ups and downs. So, if there is anyone, who thinks that this is a cold run, then how he survives the real cold streaks?
In sports betting we always like to talk about runs, even me. Because there are days, months even a seasons, when you do not make a profit and there are days, months and even a seasons, when everything is perfect and you have the feeling that you can win anything. Not only in sports betting, but also in life.
But what are runs anyway?
Runs are just short term period results and you must to learn how to survive. Most bettors will not survive on the long run. And the funny thing is that they even maybe have 70% of “good runs” but they will not know how to survive one or two bad runs. Panic, angriness, betting too much,…
To explain this I will show you the chart of the Bitcoins since the beginning and my sports betting chart which motivates that gentleman to tell me, that my sports betting picks are shit. And don’t get me wrong, I don’t sell picks – I share them for free on my site.
If you invested $100 in Bitcoins in 2010, you would have $72 Million now
What do you think, was this a good investment?
Of course it was. Probably one of the best investments you could make in past years. I don’t believe, that there is anyone who would not like to have $72 Million.
But do you think, that there were no bad runs and good runs? Let’s check the chart:
A – Winning is easy. Anyone can win. So if you bought Bitcoins and if you believed in this investment, you would not panic and you would have now a lot of money.
B – Of course most people would start investing in Bitcoins when the price went up.
C – And the “cold run comes”. They don’t know how to lose. And they start selling bitcoins after they bought it at B point
D – Those who were patient, smart and didn’t panic made a huge profit.
As you see, even if we talk about one of the best possible investments in last years, there were “good” and “bad” runs. And smart investors know this. This is why they didn’t panic. Winning is easy. It is harder to learn how to lose.
Back to my sports betting chart
A – I believe in sports betting and I believe in my work, experience and skill. If I would not believe in myself and if I would not believe, that it is possible to make a profit, I would not even start betting. If you don’t believe in something you do, then don’t even start. If you don’t believe in me, don’t even start following me. In sports betting there is no “middle” way. There is a monster on the other side with all kind of experts, that set the very best odds and to beat them, you must believe in your work put a lot of effort in it.
B – The results went up, mostly on basketball, where I made a profit. And this was a good perios for most people, who jumped in.
C – But then I started my MLB season and I went around 2000 units down. I believe a lot of bettors would panic and some of them will stop betting, some of them will start doubling their money to get back to the B point. And such a behaviour usually lead to bankruptcy.
D – But after a bad start to the MLB season, I came back, beat the negative MLB balance and currently I am sitting on more than 6000 units on all my picks in 2017.
The guy who told me, that I am on a cold streak sent me the email when we were at the point D and this is basically the point, where my profit in 2017 is highest. What would he say if he would invest in Bitcoins and get to the C point, when bitcoins dropped big time?
Understanding this is the difference between those who will make a lot of money and those who will never make money or even a living from sports betting.
When the hotel is in big troubles, then they call him and he saves the hotel. But the story is always the same. Most hotel owners think, that they need new interior or furniture. But when he comes, he shows them that interior is not the main problem, but usually the basics (clean hotel, hospitality). In almost every episode he spend most of the time to show them basics. When they change the mindset and when they start with the basics, then the interior is just extra bonus, that will make them more money.
The same problem I see in sports betting world. Most people are focusing on picks and they think, that they need picks (interior, furniture) and they think, that they will find someone who will make them rich. But at the same time most of them don’t have the basics.
Nobody will make you rich, except you
Picks are nothing if you don’t have the right mindset, if you don’t know anything about investment and if you don’t understand the basics. Good picks will increase profit and you definitely need them, but if you don’t understand sports betting fundamentals, you will lose sooner or later.
Winning is easy, but to know how to lose will make the difference
If you decide today, that you will make money in sports betting world, you will need to invest some money and time. Not only, that you will need to invest time for analysing games, but also for improving and educating. If you think that love for the sports and watching games in your sofa will beat big bookmakers companies, you are very wrong. There is no middle way and if you don’t believe in it and if you don’t invest constantly your time and money, it is a waste of time from the beginning.
But if you decide and if you believe, that you can make a living in sports betting world, then you must understand, that you will take some losses to. You will need to survive those days, months and even a negative season. Work hard and fight back.
Sports betting is a speculative business and usually speculative businesses have big ups and downs. It is crucial to know how to deal with losing.
Anyone can go 8-0 on bets in one day. This is easy part. The next day you have even more money. But 0-8 days will also come and here is the big difference between those who will not panic and will see the bigger picture (A-D) and those who will not see the bigger picture and will start panic, start blaming players, teams, other people for their success and they will see only the small picture (B-C). Most bettors don’t know how to survive 0-8 days.
If you work on your analysis and if you improve every year, use analytics and if you have strong money management, then you should not panic after some bad periods.
https://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/no-money-2070384_640.jpg360640MBhttps://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/logostran.pngMB2017-06-17 06:08:342017-06-17 07:09:55Sports Betting Impossible: Learn how to lose and you will win!
We are in June 2017 and this year has been great so far from my investing perspective. I made more than 6500 units of profit since February 2017 and I also shared all my daily investment advice for free on my site. Sports bettors like to call this – picks. In other words, if we translate this into ROI (Return on Investment) numbers, my starting investment raised for +65% in just 5 months. Or if you like, $100 bettors, that followed me, could made more than $6500 of profit. Just by following my daily picks.
I am sports betting entrepreneur, this is what I like to call myself, because I don’t sell any picks, like many sports picks services do. What I bet, I share for free, but at the same time I also see the bigger picture and I have generated more incomes related to sports betting world. My mission is to help people with fundamentals and prepare them to bet for themselves. Not only, that they bet for themselves, but also to show them how to become winning players make living in sports betting world.
However, one part is investing in cryptocurrencies and bitcoins. The whole industry is ideal for gambling world and I am sure this will change whole dynamics in next few years.
Because of that, I don’t want that my followers are late and I added this part into my sports betting online course too. And those who followed me and started betting with bitcoins, they probably doubled their incomes with my picks. Their investment was more than +200% in just 5 months.
If you started with $10.000 and turn them into bitcoins you would have 9.67 BTC on February 4th. We raised bankroll (9.67) for +60% with the help of my picks and today we would have 15.47 BTC. If you decided, that you will withdraw this amount and change BTC to USD you would have $42490.60 today on June 13th 2017.
Of course, this is ideal picture, because the odds are not the same, sometimes you can miss some games and some games could not be played too. But even if you could raise bankroll for only +30% so far, you would have 12.57 BTC today. And if you change BTC today into USD, you would have $34.465 which is more than amazing. Profit of $24.465 in just 5 months.
How is this possible?
It is very simple. Bitcoins have raised for more than +170% and I added profit of +65% with my sports investment picks too. You are probably thinking right now, oh I am too late. Why I didn’t bet with bitcoins…
You are not too late
Bitcoins and cryptocurrencies will raise and you are not late. Some projections say, that bitcoins will raise for another +100% or even more in 2017. Most of the world is still struggling with cryptocurrencies and if you tart today, you are still not too late.
I will show you how you can start betting with bitcoins.
First Step – You need to buy a bitcoins
You will need 2 things: A Wallet and some site, where you will change your money into bitcoins (BTC) – learn more. I use Kraken.com, where you can buy bitcoins and I use Blockchain.info and Ledger for a wallet, where I store bitcoins and send them wherever I want. I want to send them to Bitcoin bookmaker.
Second Step – You need bitcoin bookmaker
There are a lot of great bookmakers, like 5Dimes, that accept bitcoins, but they just accept bitcoins for deposits and withdrawals, but your account balance is not hold in bitcoins. So, you basically don’t profit from this. What you are looking is a bookmaker that accept bitcoins and you bet with bitcoins. And here are recommended bookmakers:
When you will have bitcoins, you will easily send to your bitcoin bookmaker. And the best part – small fees and anonymity.
Third Step – Bet
You can make your own picks, you can follow my picks, which are 100% free or whatever is best for you. Investing in bitcoin bookmakers was probably one of the best investment for sports bettors in 2017. You are not too late, because all projections show, that bitcons will raise in the future too.
https://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/calculator-385506_640.jpg377640MBhttps://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/logostran.pngMB2017-06-13 15:22:042020-04-28 16:29:59How could you make a $32.000 of profit in just 5 months with my free picks!
Sports betting is a huge business. Illegal or legal, gamblers will always find the way to risk their money or look for someone who can make them rich in a very short time, if possible.
On one side, we have bettors, gamblers, sports investors, and all kinds of people, who try to win money in sports betting.
On the other side, we have bookmakers that take bets, and they are definitely the big winners at the end.
Somewhere in the middle, paid sports picks services were born. I am not talking about sports analysts, bloggers, or all kind of sports fans, or entrepreneurs, that work in betting industry, but I am talking about those who sell so-called betting picks.
The motivation for writing this article is Money Talks – Sports Handicapping Reality TV. How they sell this advice, and what they promise is a huge fraud, and they even made a show from this.
A guy comes to Las Vegas for three days with $50,000 and they promise him that he will win big. He is advised to bet from $10,000 to $12,000 on one game.
Smart sports investors do not bet more than 1-2% of their bankroll, and he was advised to bet more than 20% on a game.
Ladies and gentlemen, such an advice is not advice, but selling some unrealistic gambling dreams. If you decide to gamble, do it for yourself. If you gamble and you want to make a lot of money in three days, you don’t need an advisor. You just need a lot of luck. There is nobody in the world that can have such an edge over the bookmakers to make you huge money in just 3 days.
And the best part, if he wins, they split the profit. If he loses, it is like nothing happened. So, basically one guy comes to gamble and if he wins, he will just share his profit with some so-called advisor.
This is probably one of the biggest scams that I’ve seen.
So, what are paid sports betting sites, and how can they fool you?
They are sites or people that sell betting advice and usually they guarantee big wins, big money, and gamblers are willing to pay for their advice.
But are they really so good? Can they really make money for you? Do they really have the edge over the bookmakers or is it just good (or bad) marketing?
Do you think gamblers, who already struggle with some addiction, can think rationally after someone tells them that they can solve all the problems with good “winning” advice?
Not only gamblers, but also all other people are easily fooled into spending money for such services. Here is how they do this:
Manipulating with results
Sports events are displayed with odds. So, what are the odds? Odds are probabilities that something will happen (example: Boston will win this game), turned into numbers. Odds are the prices that gamblers will pay, and if they want to win against the bookmakers, they will need to find the method that will give them the edge over the bookmakers. In other words, their probabilities must be better than bookmakers’ probabilities.
To understand this, we will take the coin flip experiment as an example. I hope you agree with me that we don’t have an edge, and if we repeat this experiment a lot of times, Heads and Tails will “happen” 50% and 50% times.
But does this mean, that if we flip a coin 30 times, that Heads and Tails will always be 15 – 15?
No. You can do experiment for yourself. I just did it and it was 17-13 for Heads.
So, we agree, that I don’t have any edge, right? But I can also manipulate with the “Heads” record. I can say that am on a 17-13 run for “Heads”. This is how sports betting services manipulate with results. “We are on a 9-1 run. We are on 43-32 run. We are making huge money three straight days….” They don’t have any edge and most of those results, that you see on the internet are by a luck, not by a skill. This is how they can easily manipulate the results.
They claim they are experts
Who is an expert? This is a person who is very knowledgeable in a particular area. Most of those betting services will claim that they are experts. But in reality, most of them are not experts, but just sports fans and they found the way how to sell betting advice. The world has changed. Sports betting is a serious business. And bookmakers are getting stronger and stronger every year. They use all kind of statistical methods to predict those games. They hire the smartest people to calculate the best lines. They hire people that are experienced and can adapt to new situations quickly.
Many betting services don’t use any statistical method, they don’t use analytics, and if you ask them basic things, like what is a yield, ROI, linear regression, or something like this, they don’t know the answer.
They will also claim that they have the right information, but with the internet you don’t need to pay for information anymore. Information is easy to find and unless they use advanced statistics to give you some value with in-depth analysis, you can do at least that good for sure.
Manipulating with the truth about bookmakers, their limits, and the odds
The ugly truth about sports betting is that around 97-98% of all people lose. That means that they will give more money to bookmakers than they take from them.
So, only around 2-3% of all bettors consistently beat bookmakers, but bookmakers do everything to limit their winnings with bet limitations, closing their accounts, and dropping the odds. So, even those successful bettors face all kinds of troubles with bookmakers.
An average bettor will not understand this and he can easily create an illusion that he will get the same odds as a betting service, which promised him huge money. Almost every bettor dreams about how he will live a dream and bet more and more money.
But in reality, most bookmakers will limit you or even close your account if you start winning.
The second thing are the odds. Bookmakers are fast and they will move the line quickly. Most bettors will never get the same lines as sports handicappers that send them picks. And the odds are the key. If you get -101 instead of +101 it can be the difference between winning and losing on a 50% hit rate.
Money back guarantees
They try to attract people with money back guarantee. But, if you pay $300 and lose $10,000, do you think that you will care about that $300? NO.
A money back guarantee is just marketing trick. It does not work in sports betting field; nothing is guaranteed. This is sports betting, it is a very risky business and anything can happen in every single game. Lock, Monster, Guaranteed, Lock of The Year and words like this, should not be used. Many people fall into this trap.
Marketing and reversal Pareto principle 20/80
There are smart gamblers who can make a profit and most of them bet for themselves without selling picks. If they want to beat bookmakers, they need to spend most of the time analysing the games.
With most betting services the story is totally different. They will spend 80% of time on marketing, spamming on social media, and how to sell their picks.
I am not saying that there are not smart investors and handicappers that can’t beat bookmakers. In fact, I think that there are people who are smart and disciplined enough to make a profit in sports betting. I am one of them and you can find my daily investment picks totally for free on my site. But to find them is very hard and even if you can find them it is almost not possible to follow their advice and get the same profit.
This is why a lot of paid picks services are bad. So, if you’re planning on using any, you’ll need to do as much research on them as you would if you were analysing your own bets.
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With the 2017 NHL playoffs set to begin tomorrow night, I figured I would revisit my dataset from the last 9 seasons (regular season and playoffs included) to see if I could find a winning strategy.
Some of you may have already read my previous article entitled “Betting NHL teams on a losing streak facing a team on a winning streak” (if not, I strongly encourage you to read it: https://www.professormj.com/pages/betting-nhl-teams-on-a-losing-streak). My initial hypothesis was that the public tends to overreact to recent results, thus over betting teams riding a winning streak facing an opponent coming off a series of losses. This study presented a method that yields a 15% ROI (Return On Investment).
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Every professional sports bettor will look to get the best possible odds and if you have only one bookmaker account, you will miss a lot of good odds. Is this important? Yes it is, because you will lose money with every bet if you don’t bet on the best odds possible. It is the same if you want to buy a jacket and the shoes. In your city there are two shops, who sell exactly those shoes and that jacket you want.
In first store the price is:
In the second store:
Will you buy both shoes and the jacket in the same store or you want to save $30? Every smart person will try to save some money and will look to find the best price.
It is the same with bookmakers. If you have only one account and if you want to bet on one game, you will always get that odds, which your bookmaker will offer you. But if you have multiple accounts, you can get always the best possible odds. Here is the example of today’s NHL game between Philadelphia and Calgary. Pinnacle’s odds are 1.79 on Philadelphia and 2.15 on Calgary, while William Hill has 1.71 on Philadelphia and 2.20 on Calgary. If you have both accounts, you will make €80 more if you make a bet of €1000 on Pinnacle and you will make €50 more if you bet on Calgary at William Hill. Or if we turn things around, you will lose that money if you don’t have both accounts. Now, calculate all the bets you make trough one year and if you have more accounts, you can simply make much more money!
Get all the bonuses and free bets you can – why not?
So, what is a bonus or free bet? Bookmakers will usually award new players with some extra cash or free bets. For example if you sign up on 10Bet right now, they have bonus of 50% up to €200. “To be eligible for this promotion, your qualifying deposit amount must be rolled over once on settled sports bets with odds of at least 1.60. Any bet placed on any type of handicap (except 3-Way Handicap) or Over/Under will not count towards this requirement.” So, you roll over once your cash, play odds of 1.60 or more and then they give you extra money, which is great. I almost never play odds less than 1.60 and after some time you can roll over your starting deposit money. Almost every bookmaker will offer some bonuses and you can grab up to $1000 of bonuses on my site. Why they do this, is because they want to attract new players and if you are smart and disciplined, you can take that money.
Stay under the radar
Here is the list of bookmakers, which are personally verified by me. Those are the safest and most reliable bookmakers right now, but still, when you start winning a lot, bookmakers will watch you and I don’t trust 100% anyone. There are a lot of stories on the internet, when bookmakers closed accounts or limited players, because they started winning. Such a things are unacceptable, but this is our reality and it is happening. This is why I am very careful and like to stay unsuspicious. If you spread your money on several bookmakers, you can stay longer under the radar.
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We all need bookmakers, because without them we can not bet. But picking the right online bookmaker is not easy. How would I pick bookmaker if I start today? This is my personal criteria, how would I pick bookmaker.
#1 Most Important: Getting Paid When I Win
Do you know, that there are a lot of bookmakers, who will not pay you if you win? It is unacceptable, but this is our reality. There are a lot of people, who beat bookmakers and they didn’t get their money. This is most important thing for me. If I win, I want that they pay me. No matter, if I stop betting today, they must clear my account and pay me everything. Great bonuses, good odds, variety of bets and other things are not important if they don’t pay you after you win. This is why I am very careful, when I pick bookmaker for myself. I don’t need flashy sites, I don’t need huge bonuses, I don’t need special bets, I don’t need Casino — I want to be sure, that they will pay me. This is the most important thing. After that we can talk about other things. Here is my list of verified bookmakers.
#2 Second Most Important: Limits and Max Wager
Limits and Max Wager are two different things. Do you know, that a lot of bookmakers will limit you, if you start winning? I will say it again: It is unacceptable, but this is our reality. For example, if you start winning and your bets are bigger and bigger, they will just limit you and I know stories from people, who couldn’t bet more than $50, after they started winning. I don’t want to be in this situation. The second thing is max wager. We all believe, that we will start winning and our bets will be bigger and bigger. If you are small bettor, than you probably don’t care about max wager, but if you win more and more and you bankroll grows, you will need bookmakers, which will allow you to bet high stakes.
#3 Third Most Important: Payouts
After I find bookmaker, which will pay me and allow me to bet, I would start looking who has the best odds. 90% of people still don’t understand how important this is. When we bet, we pay something. And the odds are prizes. You can pay for the same thing $110 or you can pay for the same thing $105. What will you do? Would you pay for the same car $500 more? Of curse not. So, why you pay more if you can pay less with good bookmaker? If we take an example of one game. The game is the same for everyone. No matter where you bet, the game and the result of the game is the same for us. But the price is not the same. Because some bookmakers will have better odds and some will have worse odds and you will pay more. So, what is margin? The easiest way to understand margins is this: We have two teams and let’s say, that there is only 2 possible outcomes (win — loss). And let’s say, that they have exactly the same chances to win this game (probability 50% — 50%). So, fair odds would be 2.00 vs 2.00 (Us players +100 vs +100). But they never give us this price. Instead of 2.00 vs 2.00 (+100 vs +100), they will offer something like 1.95 vs 1.95 (-105 vs -105). And those 5 cents are margins and this is what you have to pay more. In reality, if you get 1.95 vs 1.95 is very good. Most bookmakers are not that generous. I would definitely look for bookmakers with reduced juice, low margins, bigger payouts or better odds if you want. When you start betting big money, then you see how important is every single line. If you bet small money on odds of 2.00 or 2.05, you will not see big difference, but if you bet $10.000 on the same odds, then this is $500 of difference.
#4 Fourth Most Important: Good Customer Service
There will always be something with money, with odds, with payments,…and you will need customer service for sure. Always when it comes to our money, we don’t want to wait. I like live chat, so if I have any question, I like that they give the answer as soon as possible. We trust our money to some site and I hate if they don’t answer. Every bookmaker will have some customer service, mostly by email, phone or live chat. I prefer live chat.
#5 Fifth Most Important: Quick and Easy Funding
Most bookmakers will have couple of deposit and withdrawal options and I don’t want to wait too long for my money. This is important especially when they must pay you. Most bookmakers will have quick deposit methods, but when they must pay you, it can take a little bit longer. I know some stories, that people have waited for 1 or even 2 months to get their money. This is not acceptable.
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There are a lot of Sports Betting Services on the internet and everyone will promise a profit. They all claim, that they are the best in the country. When you see, that 20 of them claim, that their are the best, someone must lie. So, who is the best or at least good?
First of all, my personal opinion is, that you can make your own picks if you put little effort in researching the games. Most bettors don’t have any edge anyway. I believe, that you saw a lot of times, when they show you the record something like: “I am red hot handicapper: 45-23 last 68 picks!”
Foolish people think that someone will make them rich, but this is not going to happen, not in sports betting world, not in any other areas of life. The only person who can make you rich is you. Most bettors short term results, that you see on the internet are by a luck, not by a skill.
Don’t you believe me?
Ok, take for example flip coin experiment. I hope we both agree that if the conditions are fair and if you will flip a coin a lot of times, then the “Head” and “Tail” will be 50% – 50% times. I hope we both agree that we don’t have any edge. Right?
But take an experiment and flip coin 60 times. I did it and the result was: 34-26 for “Tail”. I can do one more time and it could be 26-34. It can be 30-30. My wife did the same and it was 29-31. The fact is that we don’t have any edge.
But I can show the record 34-26, when I want and I don’t say anything when it is 26-34 for example.
This is how most handicappers with promoting short term results will fool you, when at the same time, they basically don’t have any edge.
But if you want to win in sports betting, you must have the edge if you want to beat bookmakers. I hope you agree with me. I believe, that you can bet on your own and when you take into account the cost of the service, odds dropping and couple of other things, it is better to invest in yourself, gain some knowledge and make your own bets. But of course, there are couple of handicappers, that are good, but to find them is very hard and 10 questions below will help you to eliminate handicappers, that you should not follow.
So, here are 10 questions, you should ask before you pay for any pick from paid handicappers. If they don’t have an answer on any of my questions, I would not pick that service.
Did they show me their record for at least last 3 years?
I would never pay for the service, which says something like: “we are on amazing run 32–14 in last 46 picks”. That’s bullshit. Everyone can have 32–14 run and everyone can have 14–32 run. Show me your detailed record for the last 3 years. Send me the file with detailed picks, risks and other info, so I can make deeper research. This is the first question and if they are professionals, who sell their picks, then this will not be a problem. Always focus on the bigger picture. Everyone can have one month or even a negative year, but if you decide to invest, then you should see the bigger picture.
Many sports betting services will show you just profit and many of them will show only short period record. That’s red alert. Go away. Why? First of all, profit doesn’t tell anything. What if someone plays 100 games and he lost 70 of them. 99 games he played with 1 unit and one game he played with 100 units. This is just one example. You want to see how good they are and if it is worth to pay for those picks. CLV or closing line value is most important indicator if you are winning or a losing player. The biggest and most reliable bookmakers track CLV from sharp players and they say, that historical stats show, that this is the most important factor. Not profit, not win-lose record, but CLV. And of course ask them for Yield, ROI and maybe profitability. Read more about Yield, ROI and Profitability here.
3. What kind of sports they bet and what type of bets they play?
I saw on contests and other sites, that some handicappers made a lot of profit betting some sports, that are not that popular and because of that market is a small. It’s nice to someone, who made a great profit in net units on Italian volleyball League. But in reality, can you play those games? Do you even have the chance to play those games on your bookmaker? Will you ever place a bet for the same price? Because if this is a small market and if that advisor or service send picks out, odds will probably drop quickly. If you ask me, I would focus on main sports with huge betting market. As I said, it’s nice, that someone makes a profit on Handball, but can you follow him? Don’t forget, that we are talking about betting services, which you have to pay. The second question in the same topic is what type of bets. If they play always live betting or if they play always some special bets, it won’t be possible to follow them. The best bet types are again, moneyline, totals, 1-x-2, spread, AH,…again bet types, which are popular and you have a real chance to play those bets on your bookmaker and for the similar price.
4. Which bookmakers do they use?
I would ask them, what kind of bookmakers they use. If they always show great odds and they use some local bookmaker, then this will not help you. Professional sports handicappers will always use one of the top online bookmakers if we talk about online sports betting. There are a lot of reasons, why professionals use top bookmakers. Here is the list of my recommended bookmakers.
5. When they release their picks and how many times per day?
There are sites, which provide 20 picks per day with a couple of different sports handicappers. You can not follow them unless you sit whole day in front of computer. But if you sit in front of a computer, then you don’t need to pay for the picks. Do the job and research games on your own. So, what i would like to see from betting service is that they send me picks once or max twice per day. Get email, bet and do your stuff. You don’t want to wait and bet every 40 minutes. You should also ask them when they release their picks. If they release their picks at 2 in the morning and the games starts at 6 in the morning, can you follow them? I don’t think so.
6. Do they use advanced statistics and math models
This would be one of the most important questions for me. Most handicappers say, that they use advanced statistics, but in reality, they don’t use any statistics, but only their intuition. Do they use models, do they use advanced statistics. How they find value? Can they show you projected lines for every game or they just guess who will win. Because if you follow one handicapper, who just reads a lot, I think you should not follow him. You can do this on your own. But statistics, math models, predictive models will make the difference in the long run. Why do you think all successful business use predictive models? Do you think, that one huge and the serious financial group will make their decisions based only on some information, that are available for everyone? Someone will say, he has some great information about fixed games, etc…Come on guys…Fixed games and stuff like this is cheating. Even if someone fixes games, do you think they will tell you? And even if they do, they are cheaters. They cheat sports, they cheat people and I believe, you don’t want to give your money to those people. Hard work, knowledge, statistics, experience,…this is something that will make your money on the long run.
7. What did they promise me?
“We will make you rich”, “We hit 96% of games”,… come on guys…98% of all people lose all the time. Nobody will make you rich overnight. Nobody! If they have such a information, they don’t ned to sell their picks. If you have 1 million on your account, you don’t need to sell picks for 50, 100 or even 1000 EUR. The best sports handicappers, who are fair and good, will always say you, that you should take an investment approach. The best handicappers will hit only 53–55% of their bets if we are talking about some spread betting, like NBA, NFL. Win % is different by odds (bigger with lower odds and lower with higher odds). They will show their real numbers from the past and they say some realistic numbers, you can expect from them.
8. What is their money management / investment strategy?
They must show you exactly what is the starting bankroll, when was set and exactly what % of bankroll they bet on each game. What are 50 units? What is 5 star play? What is 1 unit? Without very good explanation, information about those units are nothing. They must explain you. If they say play 2% of your bankroll, is this from starting bankroll or from current bankroll. If they use anything similar to martingale, just run away. I would pay for the service, which has strong and safe money strategy.
9. How many subscribers they have?
This is a tricky question, which I would ask them for sure. On one side, they will tell you that they have a lot of subscribers. With that, they want to say you, that they are good, that people trust them. But then ask yourself, if they have so many subscribers, will I get picks for the same price? No. Because if I send one pick out for example to 1000 subscribers and everyone will bet 100 EUR, do you think, that you will get the same price? No. Bookmakers will drop odds and you will get 1.95 instead of 2.05. And this is huge. if you win 50% of games with the odds of 2.05, you will have profit, if you hit 50% of the same bets for the odds of 1.95, you will have a loss.
10. How do you charge your services and how much?
when we talk about profit, yield, ROI, then you should take into account, that you will pay for the picks. If you pay one service 100 EUR per month and if they make 10 units per month and if your unit is 10 EUR (with starting bankroll of 1000EUR), do you think, that you will make a profit? No! 10 units of profit * 10 EUR = 100EUR. Minus cost of the service = 0 profit. You should always take into account what is you budget, what will be your unit and if you will ever make a profit, after they tell you exactly how much money you should bet on each game. I saw people, who have 1000 EUR on their bookmaker account and they are willing to pay 50 EUR for sports betting service. It’s insane. I would pay only if I have 10.000 EUR on my bank account and not more than 300–400 EUR per year. If they make 40 units in one year (let’s say 4.000 EUR), I would pay only 10% of my profit to them. Sometimes even this is too much. Based on current costs of sports betting services online, you should not pay a single penny for an advice until you have at least 10.000 EUR on your bookmaker account.
Some words to you, who decided to find betting service and you are willing to pay for the picks….
When we talk about profit, yield, ROI, then you should take into account, that you will pay for the picks. If you pay one service $100 per month and if they make 10 units per month and if your unit is $10 (with starting bankroll of $1000), do you think, that you will make a profit? No! 10 units of profit * $10 = $100. Minus cost of the service = 0 profit. You should always take into account what is your budget, what will be your unit and if you will ever make a profit, after they tell you exactly how much money you should bet on each game. I saw people, who have $1000 on their bookmaker account and they are willing to pay $50 for sports betting service. It’s insane. I would pay only if I have $10.000 on my bank account and not more than $300–$400 per year. If they make 40 units in one year (let’s say $4.000), I would pay only 10% of my profit to them. Sometimes even this is too much. Based on current costs of sports betting services online, you should not pay a single penny for an advice until you have at least 10.000 EUR on your bookmaker account. It is better to start on your own.
Some words to you, who decided to find betting service and you are willing to pay for the picks….
You should understand that this is sports betting. It is speculative business and anything can happen. Deal with it!
Nobody can make yo rich overnight and nobody will win every single month. Deal with it!
What are you paying is an advice. Some people spend hours and hours to make winning picks. You pay their work, so you have bigger chances to win. Nobody can guarantee for sure, that he will have a profitable season. Deal with it!
Most people who pay for betting advice don’t have a big bankroll. And because of that and because of the cost of the service, they bet 15%, 20%, 30% of their current bankroll per bet. They are in a must win situation every day. This will lead to bankruptcy sooner or later. They will be disappointed at the end.
You should never ever bet more than 1-3% on any game.
And 3% is the biggest play, which can happen rarely. Most of the bets should be max 1–2% or even less. If you will bet more than that, you will lose and please don’t blame sports betting services. Deal with it!
You should also understand the basics of sports betting. What are odds, what is probability, what is bookmaker and so on? The difference between sports betting investment and another type of investments is that you don’t give money to your betting advisor. They just suggest you, what you should play and how much money you should play. Everything else is on you. This is why is crucial to have some basic knowledge about sports betting. If you don’t find the time to learn sports betting basics, you will lose. Deal with it!
Never blame sports handicapper service if team A has lost the game. Betting services didn’t play that game. Players played the game and they lost the game. There is so many factors, that can happen in one game. If you don’t understand this, then you don’t understand simple basics and it is very likely, that you will lose a lot of money in sports betting. Sports betting services are not prophets, but advisors. They just tell you what you should play with the offered odds. You can not blame them for short period results. Deal with it!
If you pay betting picks for one day, one week or one month you are just a gambler. If you bet more than 1-3% of your bankroll you are a gambler. In this case you don’t need any betting advisor. The beauty of gambling is excitement and that you try your own luck. Right? Make your own gambling picks. Most bettors anyway don’t have any edge over the bookmakers.
My personal opinion about paid betting services.
I don’t sell picks and I am not betting service. Let’s be clear about that from the start. I am sure also, that I am not super talented handicapper, I just work hard. I bet for myself, I love what I do and I love to play with statistics, data and numbers. I’ve created my math models for NHL and MLB and I know how you can create simple models for basketball and soccer. This is something I do every day and I want to help people with quality betting advice. I also challenge myself in other sports, to see if I can make a profit. You will see a lot of people, who are against those paid sports betting services and you will see betting services, who will tell, you that you should pay their picks. I am on both sides. Both are right.
Betting services will spend extra hours and they will do the dirty job. At the same time, you will do nothing and you just want to pick their advice for free, this is also not fair. Sometimes, I see “heroes” who took free advice and then they are rude / angry if they lost. Show some respect, because someone else made extra work, while you were sleeping. This is why I think that good and hard work should be paid. They will research games for you, they will give you an advice and I don’t have anything against that. The problem is that there are too many very bad betting services, who can not answer those 10 questions above.
But of course, there is small number of very good betting advisors out there, who will give you quality advice for a reasonable price.
But, I will also tell you, that unless you have a big budget, you don’t need to pay for the advice. You can find so many good free information and good picks on the net, that this is just amazing. There are a lot of free advisors, who will give you quality advice. Most of them do this for fun. I think if you start betting, you should follow those free sports handicappers and learn from them.
The only problem with free advisors is that they don’t owe you anything. They can disappear when they want and then you are at the beginning.
This is why I always say: “INVEST IN YOURSELF, NOT IN OTHER PEOPLE’S PICKS“. If you start researching handicappers, you will see, that you will put a lot of time and work to find good ones. You could spend this time to research your own bets.
Should you pay for the picks? Depends on your situation, but I am pretty sure – and this is based on my 20 year experience, that following other people’s picks will not bring you any money or success in betting. But if you decide to pay for the picks, ask them those 10 questions.
Believe me, you will have better chance to find really good betting service / sports handicapper.
A Journey into the mind of a successful sports bettor.
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Most People think, that profit is most important indicator of success in sports betting. But it’s not. If you want to see how good one sports handicapper is, you should pay attention on three things: Yield, ROI and Profitability. I saw a lot of sites, that don’t understand the difference. Some sites use ROI as Yield and vice versa. This is why I will try to make simple explanation with an example, so everyone can understand those three important things. Example:
Let’s say John has 10.000 EUR and he wants to invest in sports betting (instead of somewhere else). So, he will open an online bookmakers account and he will put those 10.000 on it. For simple example, we will say, that there are no fees and he has exactly 10.000EUR on his bookmaker account. He decided, that he will divide his bankroll into 100 parts and he will bet exactly one game each day in next 365 days. Every bet size will be exactly 100 EUR. He will not touch account for next 365 days and because of that all losses and wins will return on his account.
After one year, he made 365 bets, 100 EUR each. He won 195 bets and lost 170 bets. Right now he has exactly 12.760 EUR on his account. He made +2.760 EUR in this case. Yield
Yield will measure betting efficiency. It is profit / sum of all stakes. Profit in our example is +2.760 EUR and he made 365 bets * 100 EUR = 36.500 EUR. Yield = 2760 / 36500 = 0.07562. His yield is 7.562%. Everything around 10% is very good. ROI (Return of investment)
The definition for calculation is something like this: for a single-period review, divide the return (net profit) by the resources that were committed (investment). In our example, John made +2.760 EUR of profit with the starting money (this is his investment, not turnover) of 10.000EUR. His ROI in this example is 2.760 / 10.000 = 27.60%. With ROI you want to see, how much you gained in some period (one year for example). Profitability
“Profitability is the ability of a business to earn a profit.” Without profitability you sports betting will not survive on the long run and is measured with profit and losses. Profitability = Profit / All Losses. For example, John played 365 games and his record was 195–170. In this case he lost 170 bets * 100 EUR = 17.000 EUR. Profitability = 2.760 / 17.000 = 0.1623 or 16.23%.
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