On October 6th, 2017 I decided, that I will take one 1 bitcoin and I will invest it in my 5 year betting project. The idea is that I make a profit in next 5 years (in other words – create more bitcoins, that I already have), but at the same time I hope, that bitcoins will help me with the growth.

The bitcoin was $4,400 back then and right now when I am writing this is around $18,000. It was a good decision and I think that this is not the end.

I don’t have any influence on bitcoin raise, but I try to focus on my sports betting. Based on my past results, I can reach yield (some people call it ROI) of around 3-5%. This is based on my past performances and I will do my best to reach this.

I also share this journey on my site and yesterday I received a message from my friend:

“How can I become a millionaire by following your bets?”

I replied:
“It is very unlikely that you will become a millionaire with my bets”

His question was my motivation to write this, because a lot of people create an illusion, that they will follow someone and that they will become a millionaires. I am not talking only about sports betting, but in general.

But let’s talk about millionaires

We will exclude people who were born in rich families and we will exclude people who won a lottery. There are some people who invested smart, but this is also another topic and they probably worked hard before they invested in something.

Most of those rich people that didn’t work much in their lives are lucky (or unlucky), because they were born rich. But usually those people are soft and a lot of times they can not hold this money forever. This statement is not made by me, but there were couple of researches about this topic. According to the Williams Group wealth consultancy research 70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the second generation, and 90% by the third.

So, it is not about how much money you have when you are born and it is a known fact, that lot of millionaires started from nothing. A lot of them are even without formal education. That doesn’t mean, that they don’t work hard or that they don’t invest in their knowledge, but to become a millionaire you don’t need to be born in a rich family or have a formal education.

Most of us are in the second group and we don’t have parents, that are already millionaires. Despite that I think that we are very lucky, because we live in a time, when becoming a millionaire is much easier than in the past.

Thomas C. Corley spent five years researching lives and habits of 177 self-made millionaires and he said: “From my research, I discovered that daily habits dictate how successful or unsuccessful you will be in life”

He also found, that millionaires don’t follow the herd:

“We so desire to blend in, to acclimate to society, to be a part of the herd, that we will do almost anything to avoid standing out in a crowd….failure to separate yourself from the herd is why most people never achieve success….You want to separate yourself from the herd, create your own herd, and then get others to join it.”

web-Wolf-with-Sheep-770x303.jpg

Patterns about herd are everywhere

Cristiano Ronaldo and his fans
Gary Vaynerchuk and his followers
Justin Bieber and his fans
Elon Musk and his followers

On the left side we have millionaires and on the right side we have followers.

Tell me now if you know ONE follower, who became a millionaire just by blindly following someone. I don’t know anyone and if there is someone, they are in a tiny minority.

All those millionaires have couple of things in common:
They work hard. Cristiano Ronaldo is first at training and he always try to be better than others. I am not a fan of Real or Ronaldo, I am just talking about the facts.
They focus on their work. They don’t blindly follow other people. They don’t even have time to bother with other people’s lives and rather spend this extra time for what they love.
They do something that they love and with a lot of passion
They don’t look for shortcuts in their lives and they don’t focus on money

They are wolves for me.

And to become a millionaire you most become a wolf first. If you are a sheep you will not become a millionaire.

If you focus on your work, your passion and not on money, you are a wolf.

If you focus on money and if you believe that someone will make you rich, you are wrong. If you think, that you will work 10 minutes per day or just follow some advice for 10 minutes per day and you will have millions in next 5 years you are wrong.

This is not going to happen. If this would be so easy, I would be already a millionaire ten times. But my focus are not millions, but something else. I don’t care about fancy cars, fancy clothes and most millionaires don’t care about those stuff either. Only if you are a Kim Kardashian, but this is her profession anyway. What I care is my work, my passion and effort. I try to stay motivated every day and I try to do what I love.

But being a follower is not necessary bad thing if you do it right and this is why we also must separate followers into two groups:

Sheep followers and smart followers.

Sheep followers focus on money and when they see some successful people, they want to do exactly the same thing, not because this is their passion, but because they see money. They will blindly follow steps, but they will never put a lot of effort, passion or work into it. In sports betting those kind of followers are everywhere. They are just looking for someone, that will give them some picks, so they can win.

The second group are smart followers. All successful people are smart followers too. They try to connect with smart people, they try to receive their advice, they try to learn from the best and they follow someone to become better. I believe, that I am such a follower. I follow couple of guys. But I am not focusing on their money I also don’t wan to do exactly the same things. I don’t want run marketing agency, just because Gary Vaynerchuk does and he has a lot of money. No. That would be crazy, because this is not my passion. What I like is his energy, his advice about success and my motivation is always to learn. After all, if you go to the school, you are some kind of smart follower.

This is the difference between sheep followers and smart followers. Smart followers will try to focus on what they love and for them it is more important how they make money, then how much they make. I try to live by this principle. I love sports betting, I love researching games, I love writing about sports betting, I like everything around sports betting, technology, bitcoins and other stuff connected with it and this is basically what I do whole day, every day.

Being a sheep follower in sports betting will lead to big disappointment in most cases

I am connected with sports betting business last 20 years with all ups and downs. During all these years, I went trough the hell and I was even doing some jobs, that I didn’t like, but I was also connected whole this time with a lot of sports bettors all around the world. And I can guarantee you, that 99.99% of people that follow other people’s sports picks are very disappointed at the end.

I never said, that there are no good handicappers out there. In fact I think that there is many great handicappers out there, that work hard, that are very smart and make a living from betting on sport.

I am not talking about this.

I am talking about being a sheep follower, which has only one goal – MONEY. Without any effort, without any passion to researching games, analysing games, watching games,….

I believe, that if you are a follower your whole life, you will not become a millionaire. And I also believe, that if you follow other people’s picks you will not become a millionaire in sports betting.

It is not your fault, despite being a sheep. It is also not a fault of your successful betting service.

It is a general problem in a sports betting world.

Sports betting world has changed and following other people’s picks is almost not possible anymore. Bookmakers are smarter and smarter now, they can change the odds every second and the odds, that you get, are the prices, that you pay. Betting on wrong price can lead to a loss. Betting 5 minutes later can lead to a loss.

And now include the cost of monthly service too.

Here is my video , that I have recorded to show you how bookmakers drop the odds immediately. I intentionally take the odds from one of my basketball leagues. Bookmakers are very smart and they will drop the odds. The odds are dropped a lot of times during the day and if I bet for myself, I can get the odds of 2.00. If you follow my bets, you can easily get the odds of only 1.90. This is happening all the time. If you are too late, you will probably get bad odds. Of course there are bettors that beat closing lines, but if they beat closing lines and if they bet last minutes on those games for example, can you open email and bet in the same minute? I don’t think so.

Your results will never be same, then mine or theirs.

With my betting project I plan to make from 5000-1000 bets in next 5 years. Yes it is long journey and I can not guarantee that I will make a profit at the end. But I believe, that I have enough passion, betting knowledge and skills to succeed. After all, If I would not believe in it, I wouldn’t even start.

So, let’s take an example how much money you lose if you get the odds of 1.90 instead of mine 2.00.
sheep.png

As you see, we can have exactly the same results, play the same games, but because I will bet for myself first and then you will be late, you will get much lower odds and it can happen, that you make a loss and I will make a profit on yield of 4%. Most bettors (that small percentage of all bettors in the world) that make a profit will not make a yield of more than 3-5% on the long run.

If I succeed and if I make a profit in next couple of years, you will probably lose your money, if you will blindly follow my bets. This is something that most handicappers and betting services will not tell you and most bettors still don’t get it. It is a general problem in sports betting world. Not to mention limiting players, bans from bookmakers, country restrictions, different time zones and impossible to follow every single bet.

Because of that, I think that the first step into the world of successful sports betting is the right mindset.

Being a sheep will not make you a millionaire. Not in sports betting not in any other area.

Based on my observation, we have 3 types of people involved in sports betting world, plus we have bookmakers.

Bookmakers run the show. They will take 98% of all cake and we can call them LIONS. They take what they want, when they are hungry, they eat a sheep and nobody can do anything about this. There will be always enough sheep for them.

WOLVES

Then we have wolves. Those are bettors, betting sites and betting services, who take small part of this cake too. Wolves don’t want to be sheep followers, they are smarter, they learn, they work hard, they improve, they update their knowledge, they make a business around sports betting and they usually focus on their own work (like millionaires). If they follow someone, they follow smart people, they learn, they improve things, but always because they want to become better and not because they bet something that they don’t even understand. Sports betting, researching games is their passion too. At the end, they take their part of the cake too and some of them can become a millionaires. Not by following other people’s work, but because they worked hard.

HYENAS

Then we have hyenas. Those are people, that don’t have enough knowledge or skills to bet. When you see people, that start conversation like: “I have 100% fixed game” “I have guaranteed play of the year” “I will make you rich”… you know, they are hyenas. Nobody will make you rich, except you and only you. With your hard work, right attitude, good habits and your knowledge. It is up to you how you will get this knowledge, but the fact is that nobody will make you rich. To promise someone, that he will win big or get rich quickly is a “hyena thing”. They also don’t put a lot of effort when it comes to sports betting. Usually they sell some fixed games, they sell unrealistic dreams and they will find some victims for sure. They usually spend 80% of time for marketing, hunting victims on social media and selling them unrealistic dreams. Being hyena in sports betting world is an insult for me.

SHEEP

And then we have sheep. They are fucked by all.
Lions attract them and they will eat them, whenever they want. Lions run the show and they have how many sheep they want. There will be always enough sheep for them.
Wolves will fight with lions, some of them will also eat a sheep when they need. At the end, wolves will get a piece of sports betting cake too. But with a lot of fight, hard work and effort.
And there are also hyenas who will eat the most weakest sheep of all sheep. We all despise hyenas, but they will always find some sheep too.
At the end, sheep is always the one who is eaten by all others. And sheep are people who want to become rich quickly in sports betting by following others without any effort. Those are people, that create an illusion that someone will make them rich. Usually they jump from site to site. Usually they expect, that there is someone, who will make all the work for them and if possible for free. Usually they are angry when they lose and they blame everyone for their loss. They blame players, because they didn’t play well, they blame their betting advisor, because he didn’t give them a winner. But they never blame themselves. They simply don’t understand fundamental thing – there is no such a thing like overnight success and success without your own effort. There is no such a thing in sports betting, where you will follow someone for 5 minutes and then you will become a millionaire.

The only focus by sheep in sports betting is just money. They want to make money, but they want to be just followers and they believe, that someone else will make the job for them.

I don’t say, that If you are betting just for fun, that this is wrong – this can be great entertainment. I think, that betting small and then watching a game with your friends can be very exciting. Some people spend money for drugs, and I think it is nothing wrong if someone else bet money, that he can afford, just for fun.

But I will also say always, that if you bet for excitement only, then you don’t need to follow anyone. Right? The beauty of entertainment in sports betting is that you make your own bets and then brag about yourself when you win in front of your friends. Even if you make bets just because of fun, satisfaction is much bigger if you make bets on your own.

It is ridiculous, when I see people going to Las Vegas to have fun for three days and then they pay for betting advice. This is total nonsense. Nobody can guarantee you that you will win exactly this weekend or in next 3 games. It is just gambling in very short period. Why would you pay for such advice? Just gamble for yourself and have fun. Maybe you win, maybe you lose, but at the end of the day, you will have great time.

There are still some betting services that make profit and they are even so good, that you ca make some profit too if you pay for their service. But if you include all problems that you will face when you follow someone, it is not worth. Sports betting has changed and it is not like other investment funds, because there are limits and nobody can bet for you. Sometimes I can not bet 0.05 bitcoins, sometimes I can not bet 500 EUR, because bookmakers will simply not allow me to bet this amount of money. So, it is not possible that 100 people give money to one person and then he makes the same bets, at the same time of the day, for the same price. It is simply not possible. You need to bet for yourself. And the fact is that 98% of people lose all the time and most bettors in the world are sheep, who are just focusing on other people’s work.

And most people in general, not only in sports betting would like to have millions, but they don’t want to work for it. They focus on money not on their work, knowledge, effort and passion. And I think this is wrong focus.

Because of that I think that the only way to make a profit on the long run in sports betting is to become a wolf. This is the first step, that must happen in our heads.

Some wolves will not survive, but at least they tried, they worked hard and they put all the effort. After all, even if you open a restaurant and you give 100% it is possible that you lose. But at least you are a wolf.

I believe, that anyone can be a wolf. The only people involved in sports betting that I despise are hyenas. We all were sheep at some point of our lives, but I believe, that you can turn from sheep follower to a smart follower and later into a wolf.

Smart followers will not blindly follow other people’s picks. After all, I explained why it is so hard to follow someone’s picks these days.

And if we go back to the question from my friend. I think this is wrong focus. If you want to become a millionaire, you simply wake up in the morning and work. You simply put a lot of effort in something, that you love. Then you have a chance.

It is no different in sports betting. If you want to make money and millions, you will work, you will fight, you will study. You will not follow herd, but you will try to find your way and start writing your own successful story. You will find people, that will give you some value, so you can learn from them and you will understand, that sports betting is not easy. You will understand that sports betting is run by lions. You will understand, that even if you are a wolf, there is a chance that you will not succeed, but you will also understand, that if you are a wolf, you have a chance. And you will understand, that if you are a sheep, you will be fucked by all of them and you don’t have any chance at all.

And everything starts with the right mindset and turning from a sheep follower to smart follower and later to a wolf. Good bets, money and everything else will come later if you will start with right mindset.

Lions, wolves and hyenas will not turn sheep into the winners. Sheep must turn themselves first into wolves and then they can start dreaming about millions.

MB, Underdogchance.com

I will show you today, how you can analyse baseball games and we will take a game between Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays as an example.

Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will play the first game of a 3 game series in Canada and both teams had a day off yesterday. Boston Red Sox will start with Rick Porcello, right handed pitcher, who is 4-0 to the season with ERA of 1.40, whip 0.818 and 23/1 K/BB rate in 25 innings. Toronto Blue Jays on the other side will start with J.A. Happ, let handed pitcher, who is 3-1 to the season with ERA of 4.50, whip 1.273 and 31/7 K/BB rate in 22 innings so fart this season.

Boston is 17-4 to the season and they have an amazing start so far. They score 5.9 runs per game and two of four losses came in last two games. They lost two straight games in Oakland.

Toronto Blue Jays on the other side is 13-8 to the season and they score 5.5 runs per game. They are coming home after two big losses against Yankees on the road. Yankees won 3 out of 4 games in this series and in the last two games, they outscored Blue Jays by 14-2 in runs.

Those are just basic information that we can find anywhere and of course, this is not enough to make a final bet.

So, let’s start with couple of different approaches. Sports handicappers make bets on a different ways. Some bettors will make bets just based on their gut feeling, some bettors will just analyse line movement, some bettors will use strictly statics bets and some will combine all together. We have different methods, we have different styles and if your method is making a profit for you, this is ok.

I use my betting model to estimate my winning percentages. I turn those winning percentages into the odds and then I compare my odds with the bookmakers odds. My betting models are the heart of my sports betting decisions. But before we go to my projected odds on this game, let’s start with the odds. The odds are the key. Betting is not about finding the winners, but about finding the value. In other words it is about finding the right price in a sports betting market. And if you can get better price than market, then you are doing well. But to know what is a good price we need to research games and estimate our own odds somehow.

So, let’s research this game game as a sports bettors, not as a sports fans.

OPENING ODDS AND MOVEMENT

The first thing you can do is to check the opening lines or the odds if you like. There are couple of free sites, that share this information. Oddsportal and SBR are two of them.

I will take a look at Pinnacle sports odds. Pinnacle is probably the sharpest bookmaker in the world and what kind of information you get if you check the lines?

First (BOOKMAKERS OPINION) – when Pinnacle open the lines, you get their first opinion on this game. Of course this is not final, because they will later move the line because of betting action and possibly also because of some other information that they will get later (injuries, lineups,…). But let’s check their opening odds:

TORONTO – 2.11 (+111)

BOSTON – 1.83 (-120)

We can say, that this is bookmakers opinion on this game. We can easily turn those odds into percentages to see how much chances they give to home and away team. If we divide 1/2.11 and 1/1.83 we get implied probabilities. They added some margins this is why when you sum both numbers you will not get 1, but little bit bigger number:

1.83 0.5464480874
2.11 0.4739336493
SUM 1.020381737

If we cheat little bit, we can get probabilities on this game:

ODDS Prob. (Margins) Probability
1.83 0.5464480874 0.5362572191
2.11 0.4739336493 0.4637427809
SUM 1.020381737 1

 

I simply take out the margins (juice): (1.020381737 – 1)/2

So, what kind of information you get with opening odds?

Bookmakers gave 53.63% of chance to Boston and 46.37% of chance to Toronto. In other words if they repeat this game a lot of times, bookmakers think, that Boston will win around 54 times out of 100 and Toronto 46 times out of 100.

Second (Bettors opinion) – After the opening odds we usually see some line movement and usually professional bettors opinion is little bit different then bookmakers opinion:

04/23 11:10 PM 1.93 2.00
04/23 09:38 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:37 PM 1.91 2.02
04/23 09:26 PM 1.89 2.04
04/23 09:25 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:24 PM 1.86 2.07
04/23 09:23 PM 1.87 2.06
04/23 02:41 PM 1.85 2.08
04/23 01:56 PM 1.83 2.11

The initial line movement shows, that there was an action on Toronto and bettors tried to get better price here. The odds started dropping later too. But initial line movement is something that we like to see. Note also, that sometimes such movement can be done intentionally too, because of better price later. But in general, initial line movement show that there is some action on Toronto. Bookmakers will move the line because of sharp bettors action. And we as a bettors we like to be on sharp side, not on public side.

Third (public opinion) – After bookmakers open the lines and move the line, public will later jump and there will probably be some other movement couple of hours before game starts.

What I wanted to show you here is that you can always check what is bookmakers opinion on games in terms of probability and what are initial line movements. If you estimate your chances and if bookmakers have the chance of around 55% on one team and you think or estimate your own odds on this team at around 95%, then something is wrong. Bookmakers opinions are pretty good and we are looking for games, where we think that their probabilities should be little bit lower or little bit bigger.

So, bookmakers gave Boston better chance, but the odds dropped after one hour on Toronto from 2.11 to 2.08 an later to 2.00. The question is will those odds go to 1.95 or will those odds go back to 2.05. This is the market and you can try to speculate and get the best price. And if your price will be better than it is a closing line, then you will bet closing line. Pinnacle says, that if you can beat the closing line constantly, this is better indicator of who is a winning bettor than a profit. And if you beat the closing line, but you still didn’t make a profit, you were unlucky.

BETTING MODEL, VALUE AND MY WINNING PERCENTAGES

There are different approaches and different betting styles, some bettors will say, that only line movement is important, some other will say, that only statistics/betting models is important and a lot of bettors will say, that we don’t need to use statistics and analytics and they have special gift for betting. If we exclude the last type of betting, because I unfortunately don’t have super-human betting power and I believe most of you also don’t have this power, we need to to work and research games. And one thing is for sure:

One baseball game is an event, where two possible outcomes are possible. Home team win and away team win.

I have projected my winning percentages for both teams. How, You can learn here.

I have projected that Toronto Blue Jay should have 58.7% of chance to win this game and Boston Red Sox only 41.30% of chance. If the model is correct somehow, I see that I give Toronto more than 50% of chance, while bookmakers give them less than 50% of chance.

My fair odds on Toronto are set at 1.70 and this is basically direct price, that I expect. Or in other words, if my trust the model, I would expect, that I make a profit of $70 for my risked $100 if I bet and win with Toronto.

But we saw, that bookmakers offer me the odds of around 2.00 at this moment. They are willing to pay me more than I would expect. If I bet $100 on Toronto, I will make a profit of $100. Because of that I have a value on Toronto Blue Jays. Of course, if I would be quicker and if I would take Toronto earlier (my betting model is not dependent on line movement), I would get even better price. Some better or smarter bettors were faster and take Toronto for much better price. But what I like here is that the initial line movement and my betting model are on the same side.

TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE GAME

After we have information about the odds and after you have estimated your own winning percentages, we can make an extra analysis. I usually don’t like to write analysis, because if you want to write good and unique analysis, you need at least 45 minutes. Bettors then read this analysis and from delivering to final bets we lose couple of hours. And let’s check what can happen if you are 2 hours too late:

Because of writing analysis we probably lose the opening price of 2.11, and let’s say, that you I write analysis and I get the price of 2.06 and you get this analysis 2 hours later. Yes, this is exactly this example

04/23 11:10 PM 1.93 2.00 (get analysis)
04/23 09:38 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:37 PM 1.91 2.02
04/23 09:26 PM 1.89 2.04
04/23 09:25 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:24 PM 1.86 2.07
04/23 09:23 PM 1.87 2.06 (write analysis)
04/23 02:41 PM 1.85 2.08
04/23 01:56 PM 1.83 2.11 (opening price)

What that means in reality if you constantly get 2.00 instead of 2.06 on 1000 bets? And in Toronto vs Boston game we are talking about only 2 hours later.

Win% W L Odds 2 (+100) Odds 2.06 (+106)
47.50% 475 525 -50 -21.5
48.00% 480 520 -40 -11.2
48.50% 485 515 -30 -0.9
49.00% 490 510 -20 9.4
49.50% 495 505 -10 19.7
50.00% 500 500 0 30
50.50% 505 495 10 40.3
51.00% 510 490 20 50.6
51.50% 515 485 30 60.9
52.00% 520 480 40 71.2

In the best case (52% winning percentage) you can lose 31.2 units of profit on the long run, just because you didn’t make your own bets at the right time, but you read and follow other people’s picks. With $100 per unit, this is loss of $3120, just because of 2 hours late. Let’s go further. Betting $100 per game usually requires bankroll of $10.000, right? And losing $3120 on initial bankroll of $10,000 just because you are always too late, is little bit to much, isn’t it? Yes, of course every game is a different case and we can not use this example and implement it on every single baseball game, but I wanted to show you how much money you can lose because of writing and reading analysis of other people, instead of making your own.

But let’s get back to analysis of this game:

STARTING PITCHERS

The most important players in a baseball game are pitchers and because of them the odds changing on a daily basis, despite teams will play 3-4 games in a row against the same team.

Starting pitchers will start the game, which is 9 innings long (if we exclude extra innings if they happen). A lot of bettors will focus on ERA, which is not the best indicator of how good pitcher is, so I will show you couple of other things to check.

J.A. Happ is a lefty pitcher, who will start for Toronto and his ERA is 4.50 so far this season and this will tell us how many runs this pitcher allows per 9 innings. But ERA doesn’t include many other things and sometimes pitchers were just lucky. Imagine, that you have a pitcher with ERA 0, but he walked many hitters and he survived couple of bases loaded situation. Of course, ERA will be low, but on the long run, if he continues to play like this he will be hit hard. And ERA will not tell you this. ERA will tell you what happened, but we want to know what can possibly happen in the next game based on pitchers performance.

There are two very good sites like Fangraphs and Baseball-reference, where they provide some ERA metrics numbers and in this example we can check Happ’s xFIP (xFIP = ((13*(Fly balls * lgHR/FB%))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant). (fangraphs)

Rating FIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.20
Above Average 3.50
Average 3.80
Below Average 4.10
Poor 4.40
Awful 4.70

HAPP ERA = 4.50

HAPP xFIP = 2.97

As you can see in his example, despite his ERA is not that great his xFIP is almost excellent and xFIP for example is better future predictor than ERA. So with Happ we have very good pitcher on the mound.

He struck out 31 hitters in 22 innings this season, which is amazing. He went 5.5 innings per game, so we can expect that 3 innings will be pitched by bullpen and the biggest problem so far I see is that he allowed 5 home runs. This is the reason for big ERA.

What about his history against current Red Sox lineup?

BATTER AB HR R SO AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA
J.D. Martinez R 10 0 2 0 0.3 0.417 0.3 0.717 0.342
Eduardo Nunez R 21 0 1 3 0.286 0.318 0.381 0.699 0.309
Christian Vazquez R 14 0 2 4 0.286 0.333 0.357 0.69 0.31
Rafael Devers L 6 0 0 2 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 0.3
Hanley Ramirez R 32 1 6 6 0.188 0.308 0.344 0.651 0.292
Mookie Betts R 26 1 3 2 0.192 0.222 0.423 0.645 0.272
Brock Holt L 9 0 1 2 0.222 0.3 0.333 0.633 0.285
Sandy Leon S 6 0 0 2 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.333 0.15
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 14 0 1 5 0.071 0.133 0.143 0.276 0.13
Andrew Benintendi L 10 0 0 2 0 0.167 0 0.167 0.117
Mitch Moreland L 5 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
Boston Red Sox: 153 2 17 30 0.196 0.266 0.301 0.567 0.255

As we can see, he has some very solid numbers against current Boston lineup, despite I would not pay such a big attention to those numbers because usually we have very small sample sizes and we must be careful how much weight we give.

However, Boston players combined 153 at bats against him with batting average of 0.196, which is also not most important metric for future predictions. But to get the first picture about how he played in the past against Boston Red Sox players we can check some numbers above in the table.

Happ is also 7-3 in his career against Boston and his team is 10-6 in those games. His career ERA versus Boston is 3.24.

Rick Porcello on the other side is a right handed pitcher, who will start for Boston. He is 4-0 to the season and he struck out 23 hitters in 25 innings. The most amazing thing about him so far is that he has amazing control. He walked only 1 hitter so far.

PORCELO ERA – 1.40

PORCELLO xFIP – 3.34

But if we check his xFIP numbers against Happ’s numbers, we see, that Happ has lower xFIP. At the end of the day, there will not be such a huge advantage and if we strictly stick with xFIP numbers, Toronto will have the advantage here.

Let’s check his numbers versus Toronto’s players:

BATTER AB HR R SO AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA
Luke Maile R 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 1.25
Steve Pearce R 9 0 1 0 0.444 0.444 0.667 1.111 0.478
Justin Smoak S 30 3 6 8 0.267 0.389 0.633 1.022 0.428
Kevin Pillar R 36 0 3 7 0.278 0.316 0.389 0.705 0.311
Teoscar Hernandez R 3 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 0.3
Aledmys Diaz R 3 0 1 1 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 0.3
Devon Travis R 15 0 1 1 0.267 0.312 0.333 0.646 0.291
Kendrys Morales S 39 2 5 7 0.205 0.244 0.385 0.629 0.272
Curtis Granderson L 13 0 1 4 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.462 0.208
Russell Martin R 29 1 4 7 0.103 0.188 0.207 0.394 0.184
Randal Grichuk R 2 0 0 1 0 0.333 0 0.333 0.233
Active totals for
Toronto Blue Jays: 180 6 22 37 0.239 0.297 0.4 0.697 0.307

Toronto have 180 at bats against him, with batting average of 0.239 and 6 home runs.

Porcello is 9-8 against Toronto with ERA of 4.98 and his team is 10-10. Solid numbers, but if you strictly bet based on this pitcher vs batter information, then betting on Happ versus Boston would make you +5.2 units of profit in his career, while betting on Porcello would make you a loss of 0.9 units in his career versus Toronto.

The conclusion about pitchers: According to xFIP we have small advantage on Toronto’s side. Both pitchers have been playing very well so far and we will probably see very good pitching duel. Happ has pitched well against Boston in the past as well.

BULLPEN

The old times, when pitchers went 9 innings and at the same time scored 3 home runs are gone. Starting pitchers average is around 5.5 innings per game (my number is 5.46 innings per game for qualified SP last 365 days). If we know, that the game is 9 inning long, we simply can not ignore last 3-4 innings right? This is still more than 30% of the game.

When you make an analysis on bullpen (relievers), you can always check bullpen usage and if their key relievers pitched in a game the day before. But in our case, both teams had day off yesterday, so I will consider that all relievers, that are not injured are available today and can be used.

BOSTON Pitchers GP IP
Matt Barnes 1 1.1
Heath Hembree 1 1
Brian Johnson 1 0
Joe Kelly 1 1
Craig Kimbrel 0 0
Carson Smith 1 0.1
Hector Velazquez 1 3
Marcus Walden 0 0
Team total IP: 6.2

 

Pitcher GP IP
John Axford 2 1.2
Danny Barnes 2 2
Tyler Clippard 1 1
Aaron Loup 1 1
Tim Mayza 0 0
Seung-Hwan Oh 2 1.2
Roberto Osuna 1 1
Ryan Tepera 1 1
Team total IP: 9.1

I like to compare teams bullpens advanced ERA metrics numbers and according to my numbers I rank Blue Jays bullpen little bit better. I rank Blue Jays bullpen as 7th best and Boston as 16th best in the league (out of 30 teams).

TORONTO BULLPEN ERA – 2.12

TORONTO BULLPEN xFIP – 3.74

BOSTON BULLPEN ERA – 3.25

BOSTON BULLPEN xFIP – 3.83

As you can see, I would give small advantage here to Blue Jays.

HITTING AND THE OFFENSE

So, after we get the first picture about pitchers we need to check how many runs can our team score. Mainstream statistics that most sports fans and commentators use are home runs (HR), batting average (BA) and runs (R). Those are not the best future predictors and I see that more and more people started to talk about other metrics.

But let’s start with the basic picture about those two teams.

Boston scores 5.9 runs per game and they are one of the best offensive teams so far. Toronto on the other side scores 5.5 runs per game, which is also about league average. But instead of focusing on batting average you can focus on some other things, like  OBP, SLG, OPS, WRC+,…

And what I like to focus is on lefty vs righty matchups against hitters. In general, when left handed pitchers face left handed batters they have big advantage. It is much harder to hit left handed pitcher if you are a left handed batter. Second interesting thing is that there is much less left handed pitchers in the game and hitters sometimes are not that familiar with them. Of course this can not be the rule for every single player, but teams like to have at least one lefty in their rotation and at least one lefty in their bullpen so he can go against left handed batters in crucial moments.

According to my rankings I rank Boston as a 4th best offensive team in the league and Toronto as a 10th best team in the league. But this game is special because Boston will face a left handed pitcher and they were in 101 at bats this season against lefties. And what is interesting, I rank them as 29th team vs lefties so far. And today they will need to face Happ, that has almost excellent xFIP numbers and has very good past numbers vs Red Sox. Even if we check only runs/game, we see that Boston scores only 3.3 runs per game versus lefties, while on the other side they score much more vs righties. Note also, that Boston score little bit less on the road (4.7 compared to their overall 5.9 number)

Toronto on the other side score 5.5 runs per game, but they are much better versus right handed pitchers – 6.7 (this is the situation for them today) and they score more against lefties too – 5.8.

I rank Toronto as a 6th best team versus righties so far, while I rank Boston as a 29th versus lefties so far.

(of course I can not reveal everything in this post, but you can check my A Journey course, where I reveal exactly how I project my odds and what kind of metric and rankings I use)

FIELDING, ERRORS,…

The next thing you can do is to research couple of other things. How teams play in the field, how many errors they make, how good they are in stealing bases, etc…

BALLPARK FACTORS

We all know, that teams play in different ballparks and we have ballparks that are hitters friendly and ballparks that are pitchers friendly. In other words if Albert Pujols would play his whole career in Coors Field his numbers would be much better. I use ballpark adjusted numbers for my betting model. If you don’t use ballparks adjusted statistics, you can take this into account too.

Here is one interesting table from fantasypros, where you can get little bit better picture, which ballparks are hitters or pitchers friendly.

PARK NAME
RUNS
HR
1B
2B
3B
Coors Field
(Colorado Rockies)
1.378 1.223 1.195 1.267 1.816
Globe Life Park in Arlington
(Texas Rangers)
1.172 1.083 1.119 1.114 1.157
Chase Field
(Arizona Diamondbacks)
1.164 1.119 1.024 1.229 1.711
Fenway Park
(Boston Red Sox)
1.138 0.950 1.113 1.280 1.095
Progressive Field
(Cleveland Indians)
1.138 1.043 1.070 1.234 0.635
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
(Baltimore Orioles)
1.046 1.183 1.046 0.901 0.745
Target Field
(Minnesota Twins)
1.046 1.082 1.067 1.046 1.032
Miller Park
(Milwaukee Brewers)
1.045 1.178 0.941 1.070 1.000
Great American Ball Park
(Cincinnati Reds)
1.037 1.133 0.970 1.001 0.734
Kauffman Stadium
(Kansas City Royals)
1.031 0.795 1.007 1.183 1.398
Comerica Park
(Detroit Tigers)
1.028 1.025 1.011 0.996 1.485
Yankee Stadium
(New York Yankees)
1.025 1.301 0.942 0.856 0.613
Nationals Park
(Washington Nationals)
1.005 1.030 1.044 1.004 0.652
Rogers Centre
(Toronto Blue Jays)
0.993 0.978 0.948 1.142 1.000
Turner Field
(Atlanta Braves)
0.990 0.819 1.016 0.976 0.812
Wrigley Field
(Chicago Cubs)
0.985 1.004 0.971 0.933 1.135
Citizens Bank Park
(Philadelphia Phillies)
0.980 1.234 0.947 0.901 0.861
PNC Park
(Pittsburgh Pirates)
0.964 0.893 1.026 0.998 0.990
O.co Coliseum
(Oakland Athletics)
0.957 0.860 0.971 1.011 1.365
U.S. Cellular Field
(Chicago White Sox)
0.946 1.128 0.936 0.879 0.892
PETCO Park
(San Diego Padres)
0.922 0.919 0.981 0.956 0.835
Tropicana Field
(Tampa Bay Rays)
0.920 0.918 0.961 0.849 0.932
Safeco Field
(Seattle Mariners)
0.912 0.994 0.946 0.891 0.754
Busch Stadium
(St. Louis Cardinals)
0.912 0.870 1.043 0.957 0.835
Angel Stadium of Anaheim
(Los Angeles Angels)
0.907 0.982 0.989 0.855 0.682
Citi Field
(New York Mets)
0.900 0.941 0.889 0.892 0.655
Dodger Stadium
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
0.899 0.973 0.930 0.984 0.517
AT&T Park
(San Francisco Giants)
0.897 0.637 1.040 0.973 1.386
Marlins Park
(Miami Marlins)
0.879 0.795 0.960 0.867 0.967
Minute Maid Park
(Houston Astros)
0.850 0.972 0.926 0.880 1.107

 

UMPIRES

If you like, you can compare umpires and how they call strikes, balls, some of them favour home teams, etc. This is also another thing you can take into account.

INJURIES

It is of course important to take into account injuries. I use active rosters numbers, so the numbers from injured players are excluded and two notable missings are Donaldson fot Toronto (injured from 13.April) and Bogaerts for Boston (from 11.April).

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED BET

So, what we have here?

The bookmakers opened the odds at 2.11 on Toronto, but the odds dropped to 2.00 later. We have my betting model, where I have projected, that Boston should be an underdog and not Toronto.

We have Happ, who has very good history against Red Sox players and his advanced ERA-metrics (I used xFIP for this example) are even better than Porcello’s numbers. A lot of bettors will be fooled by ERA numbers, because we have Porcello with much better ERA and on the first look Happ ERA of 4.5 looks bad versus a team, that scores 5.9 runs per game.

But we can not take this 5.9 runs per game for Boston numbers, because they score much less against left handed pitchers (3.3 runs) and they will face one very good left handed pitcher today.

Toronto is an underdog here, despite they will probably have better pitcher on the mound and as we saw, they have slightly better bullpen so far too.

Toronto is also very good scoring home team and they play well against right handed pitchers too. I don’t see any big advantage from Boston in this game and I think we have a good underdog play on Toronto.

I would recommend to take Toronto up to 1.95. 

Learn How to Handicap Your Own games and Build Your First Betting Model

Hi,

how are you? I hope you are well and I hope you are excited about MLB season 2018.  Baseball season started few days ago and I made just couple of bets in my 5 year betting plan and fb challenge, but didn’t started yet with my MLB betting season and daily projections. The reason? I usually wait for couple of games in a new season and then I start betting. Season is long and I don’t want to jump on games like a crazy from the start.

Maybe you know an anecdote about two bulls: “An old bull and a young bull stand on a hillside, overlooking a pasture. The young bull says to the old bull, “Hey, let’s run down and fuck one of those heifers.” The old bull replies, “let’s walk down and fuck ’em all.”

I don’t want to be a young bull this season just because season started. I want to start slowly and be patient and when I get more familiar with the season I will bet on more and more games. And hopefully I will make a profit at the end.

I use statistics to estimate my own winning percentages, which are turned into the odds. Later I compare my odds with bookmakers odds to check where is the value. Before I make final decision, I usually make an extra analysis and mix my numbers with other information that I have. This is something I also recommend to my followers. But the heart of my baseball betting is my betting model and my projected odds will be the most important information this season to make final bets.

Two mistakes that I made last season were:

  • Start betting to early in the season, which is always very tricky. In the past I had great early season results (even pre-season), but in general it is a lot of luck involved and I am more comfortable when I have fresh stats from a new season.
  • I made too many gut plays. I tracked my plays, that were not supported by my math model and I call them “gut plays”. Intuition and experience are great, if you know how to use them, but on the long run I believe that facts are much more important. And the numbers are all about the facts. My gut plays were not good last season and I made more damage than anything good. This is why I will limit such plays.

But the model alone had very good results and the basic idea with projections and the model is to get the true picture about the games, that is based on the facts (not emotion). After that we can always stay away from the games, that we don’t like.

Even if I exclude my “gut plays”, my betting model had much better results after one month. As you can see below, the worst results were at the start of the season and after first month, results went up. But of course, this should not be the rule, that every season will be the same. Sometimes I had great first half and not so good second half.

 

What are projections and how I project games?

There are many different theories about games, betting, etc… I look at one baseball game as one event, where two teams play each other and both teams have a chance to win a game.

P(A) = Probability of team A to win a game

P(B) = Probability of team B to win a game

P(A) + P(B) = 1

With my baseball betting model and formulas that I have created in google sheets, I estimate my winning percentages. When I have winning percentages, I turn them into the odds.

My projection will look like this:

Oakland Athletics (Daniel Gossett): WIN %= 40.40%, US ODD= +148  DECIMAL = 2.48
Los Angeles Angels (Parker Bridwell):WIN %= 59.60%, US ODDS= -148, DECIMAL = 1.68

Then I will estimate the value with Kelly Criterion, where I will take into account bookmakers odds. And of course bookmakers odds are the reason if I bet or not.

Join My A Journey Course and learn how to project your own odds

How I will track my baseball record 2018?

Here you can download betting tracker for 2018 and analyse your own bets. Download and open file in google sheets.

Two things, that I will add this season and didn’t pay that much attention last season are analysing my betting performance versus closing lines (I will use Pinnacle closing lines) and I will also check p-value to see skill vs chance.

Yield, ROI, Profit,…

I will of course track basic stats and the goal is of course to make a profit at the end of the season.

Closing Line 

According to Pinnacle (which is the sharpest bookmaker in the world): “The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.”

In other words sports betting is a market, where we try to get the best price possible. If you can get better odds than the “market”, then you beat it. In very simple example, if you bet at this moment on Boston Red Sox at 2.34 (+134) and the closing odds on Boston were at 2.20 (+120) you beat a closing line and this is good.

The goal will be to have positive CLV and to beat closing lines more often than not.

Opening vs Closing Line

I will also track my bets to see which bets were on the right line movement. So it the opening odds were at 2.5 and closing odds were at 2.34, I was on the right team.

Skill vs Luck

I will also add one very simple calculator of p-value in betting tracker to get first picture about my performance and by how many times my result is by a chance or by a skill. Note also that this will start showing some first results only after 100 bets. But I believe, that I will make at least 500 bets this season.

I will challenge myself in different categories, which will be even bigger challenge. I will try have positive numbers in all three categories. Of course profit will still be a goal at the end, but I also want to have positive numbers in other two categories. Everything I do with my site, I do long term and many bettors who will read this, track and analyse their record this way or even join me on my A Journey will become simply better on the long run.

The odds

I will try to stay in the range between 1.75 (-133) and 2.85 (+185), but I will make extra analysis for the odds out of this range and then I will make final decisions. My model had the best results in this range.

Units

All my bets will be in the range between 1-2 units. I recommend that 1 unit is 0.5%-1% of your bankroll. Is this % of current bankroll of starting bankroll?

I will use 1 unit as 1% of starting bankroll for baseball season. It will be separate betting project. But those bets will be also played in my 5-year bitcoin betting project, where I use proportional strategy.

Pitchers listed

All pitchers must be listed for my bets in this project. But this also depends on your bookmaker and where you will bet. If you bet at Nitrogensports for example, they don’t have pitchers listed.

Bet types

Most of my bets will be moneyline bets. Very few run line and maybe just couple of games, where I will bet on totals.

Bookmakers – where to bet?

Bookmaker US Players Margin/Juice Account balance hold currency
Pinnacle NO 1.018632269 Fiat (EUR)
Bovada YES 1.038685745 Fiat ($)
Betonline YES 1.021923983 Fiat ($)
Mybookie YES 1.036160421 Fiat ($)
5Dimes YES 1.018632269 Fiat ($)
Cloudbet NO 1.034655687 Bitcoin, BCH
Nitrogensports YES 1.031286105 Bitcoin
Bitcoinrush YES 1.018632269 Bitcoin
Sportsbet NO 1.031223893 Bitcoin

 

The margins (juice) is taken from the game between Oakland and Angels 1 hour before the game start on April 6th, 2018 (CET time zone = 19:00).

Bookmakers with the lowest juice are fiat bookmakers Pinnacle for European players, 5Dimes for US players and bitcoin bookmaker Bitcoinrush.

That doesn’t mean that the best odds will always be at bookmakers with lowest margins. In this game, the best odds on Oakland were at Betonline (2.27), but because of that, they have weaker odds on Angels. So, anyone who wants to bet on Oakland, the best price was on Betonline, despite they don’t have the lowest margin (juice). It is always recommended to have multiple accounts to get better odds. All my bets will be played at Pinnacle and  Bitcoinrush (bitcoin betting).

When and where I will share my bets?

All my bets will be shared on STEEMIT. Steemit links are also shared on twitter and my facebook page. I will start slowly with less bets in first month.

When and where I will share my projected odds?

All my projected odds will be shared membership area first. Later I will create a video on youtube, where I will comment games and my bets. You can subscribe to youtube channel here. You can become a member if you join my betting course here.

I will start sharing my projected odds on 23th April, 2018.

I wish you successful MLB season and as always like to say, do your own research.

MB

Bitcoin Cash Betting

I asked my friend, who love sports betting, what kind of money management he has.

He said:”Every weekend I take $200-$300 and this is my bankroll. I bet $50 per game and that’s it. And then the next weekend the same.”

Well, this is not a bankroll. He basically takes money from his monthly income stream and bet what he has. If he lose that money, he takes more. In many cases such behaviour is very dangerous.

Bankroll is something, that you can lock for some time. Bankroll is something, that you don’t need for a living. Bankroll is something that you risk and hope that it will raise. The richest people in the world generated at least 5 different incomes and relying on only one “speculative investment”, which sports betting for sure is, is very very dangerous.

The first rule is that you never bet money that you can not afford to lose. You should not rely on sports betting money to pay monthly bills and you should not expect that you will win every month. If you understand this, if you bet with the money that you don’t need for a living and if you stick with bet size, that is around 1% of your bankroll, then you are already better than most bettors in the world.

Because you know…I like to say, that bettor who has strong money management but losing picks, will always survive. Maybe he will have bad season, maybe he will decide later that betting is not for him, but because he has separate money for betting and because he has some kind of money management, he will survive for sure.
On the other side bettors with winning picks, but without any strategy will not survive. Usually they lost everything in just 2-3 weeks, after they had for example 6-7 good months. And then troubles starts. Some people start taking more and more from their monthly income streams and this is where the things become very dangerous.

We all like to talk about bankroll, but the reality is, that only few have bankroll and only few work on it.

There is a difference between bankroll and a budget. If you take money from your income stream for gambling activities all the time, you are on a BUDGET. If you lose money all the time and if you don’t have bankroll especially for risk investments, then you are on a BUDGET.

There are three types of gamblers that are on a budget:

First group of gamblers will fund their gambling activities from their monthly income stream and they will spend more than they can afford. They will rather gamble than pay monthly bills, even food.

The second group are gamblers who will still take money every month from their income stream, but they are smart enough to understand how much they can take. They will bet only the money they can lose. This is the money they would spend for some “unnecessary” things anyway. They will bet without any strategy and they do this for fun, which is totally ok.

And there is a third group of very few that work on building a bankroll. Your betting fund only becomes a bankroll when you stop taking money from your income stream and you take out all of the money you took previously when you were on a budget.

When this happens we can start talking about BANKROLL. It will take some time and nothing comes over night.

WHY IT IS SO IMPORTANT TO BE ON A BANKROLL

One of the first things is for sure mindset. When you know that you risk money that you can lose without any serious consequences, you can be more relaxed, you will not find yourself in a “must win” position and you can even survive negative season which will not be a disaster. Some smart professional investors have couple of bankrolls and they have money on the side if something bad happens.

Smart investors from other fields (not sports betting related) would say, that the best money invested is that money, where you almost forgot on it. There were couple of cases I know from crypto world, where they forgot on their early bitcoin investments and later they saw, that they have millions of dollars. Of course you will not forget your money in sports betting, because we bet every day, we must analyse games every day, but money for betting should be definitely money, that you decide to forget from the day one. With this in mind, you can focus on finding the real value bets and not putting yourself in a must-win position every day.

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​Let’s say, that I tell you: “Mercedes is a very good car. Buy a Mercedes for $40.000”

You decide that you will buy this car. But when you want to buy a Mercedes, the price jumped to $46.000. Will you buy it or not?
You don’t know, because you don’t know the true value of Mercedes. And I also didn’t tell you the true value, because I simply don’t know how to estimate the true value of this car.
THIS WAS A PICK
The basic concept in our life, when it comes to money is that we buy things for low price or at least for fair price. It is the same with all kind of investments (buy low, sell high), it is the same concept when you go to a store or a market,…and it is the same concept when it comes to a sports betting.
If you always buy things, that are overpriced, you will lose money. Right?
Making a pick is very easy. Anyone can make a pick and I would never pay for a pick.

Example of picks:
  • ​Bet on Lakers -7 (1 unit)
  • Bet on Boston Red Sox +124 (3 units)
  • Bet on Real Madrid @1.78 (1.5 units)
The problem is…
that those prices are changing all the time in sports betting. I don’t believe, that Mercedes price is changing every 10 minutes, but in sports betting and some other investments, especially speculative, the prices are changing all the time.
To make money, you need to buy things for the right price. If you buy high and sell low, you lose. If you buy low and sell high, you win.
I hope that you understand the concept of a value and how important is to bet on the right price (if not – sign up for my 7 day free online betting course, where I talk about those things).
What will you do, if you follow someone and you get those prices:
  • ​Bookmaker: Lakers -8
  • Bookmaker: Boston Red Sox +110
  • Bookmaker: Real Madrid @1.97
Will you bet on
  • ​Lakers -8?
  • Boston +110?
  • Real Madrid at 1.97 only 1.5 units, despite the price went up?
You don’t know, because you didn’t have the projections or if you like you didn’t have the winning percentages to see what to bet, when to bet and how much to bet.
And here we come to PROJECTIONS.
Projections will tell you the price. Projections will tell you your winning percentages, your spreads and your totals. The basic concept to win at sports betting is to bet on games, where you give your team better winning percentage than bookmaker. I hope you agree with me. Those projections are made independently and without bookmakers. When I make projections for NBA for example, I estimate my own spreads and then later bookmakers throw out their lines. I simply compare my prices with their.
Example of projections:
  • ​Lakers -12
  • Boston +160
  • Real Madrid 1.30
The projections will tell you this:
  • ​Play Lakers if you get Lakers -11 or better (-10, -9, -8,…depends on betting model and method)
  • Play Boston for the price of +161 or more (depends on the method)
  • Play Real Madrid for the price of 1.31 or better
In other words (if we take Boston example):
  • ​I will play Boston only if someone (bookmaker) will pay me at least $160 for my every risked $100.
  • Or for example….I will buy a Mercedes only if the price will be $41.345 or less
If the bookmaker will pay me only $110 (the odds of +110), I will not bet on it, because I will pay too much. Paying too much all the time = losing money.
Betting on the wrong price = losing money.
PICKS WITHOUT PROJECTIONS ARE USELESS
When I started betting I must say, that I understood the concept pretty quickly. The biggest problem was how to estimate the odds, how to calculate winning percentages. I already understood, that betting on the right price is the key concept. But I also knew, that creating some imaginary price in my head is also not the right way.
Bookmakers were smarter and smarter and even those local bookmakers didn’t make any mistakes more. The prices were sharper and sharper and I was trying to find the way how to estimate my own odds and winning percentages.
Of course this can not be made in your head without any formulas or without betting model. I hope we all agree with this. Owners of sportsbooks don’t wake up in the morning and take a paper and say: “ok, Lakers will be -3, Celtics will be -4,…or maybe -4.5….let it be -3.5…”

So, if I have pick from someone: “Boston +124”, I simply don’t know what to do with this. It is almost not possible, that the price is the same.
I also don’t know if I should buy a Mercedes for $46.000. Right?
And the pick without projection is almost useless. Betting without previously projecting the winning percentages, is nothing else than – guessing. Some handicappers can guess well, but at the end of the day, if you follow them, you will not know when you should bet the game or when you should stay away.
  • PICKS will tell us nothing else, than what to bet 
  • PROJECTIONS will tell us for which price you should bet something
And the price is the key! 
Cheers!
MB
Want more stuff like this?

As a young and resourceful person who wants to keep up to date with the latest technological developments, it is a no-brainer that you will have invested in bitcoin. As an every growing cryptocurrency that is breaking the mold in the way people handle money, this innovative and ground-breaking invention is something you just have to get involved with. One thing you might not know you can do with bitcoins, however, is to place bets and indulge in some light, responsible gambling. After all, everyone likes a little flutter! In this following how-to guide, you will get some of the vital information any beginner needs to know about betting with bitcoin, so you can be well informed before you start this fun little venture.

Being responsible

Before you start placing bets or playing games such as online poker, the first and foremost thing you need to be aware of is how to manage your bitcoins responsibly so your money is secure and protected, and you will be pleased to know that it is easier than you may initially think. One suggested idea for doing this is to take whatever money you want to invest and place part of it into a bond, so its money that is traditionally protected, and then invest the remainder into buying bitcoins. This approach allows you a kind of insurance so that whatever happens with the fluctuating values of both traditional physical currency and your bitcoins, you will never be out of pocket and your investment cannot fail.

The advantages

So, why start placing your bets with bitcoin as opposed to traditional money or credit anyway? Well, you will be pleased to hear that there are many advantages to betting with bitcoin. For example, unlike regular betting, the use of bitcoin incurs little to no transaction fees meaning you can save money, and your winning payouts can be in your bitcoin wallet in mere minutes, so there’s no waiting around for your well-deserved winnings. The main pull of betting with bitcoin, however, is that it is so much safer. Instead of having to hand over all your card details, bitcoin requires only an address and your private and public keys. The whole bitcoin system is encrypted and thus near impossible for anyone or any computer to hack into.

Playing online

You can not only place bets online but also play fun games such as poker on reputable websites such as games.bitcoin.com. Websites such as this offer an again safer gambling experience and have taken extra care to ensure their gambling platform is easy to use, with accessible information for your peace of mind. By using a website that allows you to gamble with bitcoins and provides fairness and security, you can sit back and simply enjoy the experience without having to worry.

Bitcoin is growing quickly and is an investment you will definitely want to make which, in turn, will make your betting and gambling a safer, more enjoyable experience right from the get-go.

Sports betting is one of the biggest businesses in the world and according to statista (The Statistics Portal), the market volume of online gaming was forecasted to reach 51.96 billion U.S. dollars in 2018, more than doubling since 2009. More and more people are involved from all around the world, especially new players are coming from Africa and Asia. For example in Nigeria around 60 million people are involved in gambling activities and in South Africa around 50% of population is involved in sports betting.

STATISTA (Size of the online gambling market from 2009 to 2020 (in billion U.S. dollars)

 

Local shops were popular and they still are, but they are slowly replaced by online betting sites. With dynamic odds and internet, this is something we would expect anyway. Odds can change every minute and the odds are the key, because they represent the prices which bettors must pay. In many cases odds can be the difference between winning and losing. For bettors it is important to get the best possible price. Online betting gives us the chance to have multiple bookmakers accounts and because of that we can always get the best odds available. With the internet more and more people move from local bookies to online betting sites. And this make sense.

Because of that, more and more online bookmakers are born every year too. It is a huge business and if we understand that 98% of people lose all the time, this is great business opportunity for many betting companies.

We can easily say, that this is global phenomena and it is not just big business, but massive business. Because of that, everything is also not perfect, there are always some authorities, who want their piece of cake, there are banks and transactions fees, taxes,… and at the end the biggest price is paid by bettors.

This is why I recommend, that we start at the beginning and understand the problems faced by bettors and betting sites (bookmakers).

After we get this answer, then we can start talking how can bitcoins and blockchain technology make sports betting more friendly to both – bookmakers and bettors.

Let’s start with bookmakers and separate them in two groups.

In the first group are illegal bookmakers. A lot of times those underground bookmakers are run by criminals. They avoid taxes, run illegal activity and bettors money is never 100% safe. Most people don’t want to deal with them, but they still bet there because they simply don’t have other chance to bet somewhere else. Government agencies will take the actions to find both bettors and bookmakers. In some countries gambling is strictly prohibited. But still people will find the way how to gamble. They must trust their money to those bookmakers and if they decide, that they will not pay them, they can not do anything about this.

In the second group are legal bookmakers and we see more and more new online bookmakers every year. They will face all kind of country restrictions by governments, big transaction fees and when there are online transactions, there is almost always a problem with security.

What about bettors?

Every online business will bring some concerns. And the same is with sports betting. Bettors must always provide their personal information, information about their credit cards and in general online transactions have high fees and are slow. Security is questionable very often and at the end we have our governments that will try to limit our gambling/betting activities. Because of that bookmakers also close the door to many bettors.

Here is the example, what kind of information you need to provide to Bet365 (fiat bookmaker) if you want to open an account:

 

All those problems will be faced by bettors. And this is not the end. Some bookmakers don’t even pay, when you win and most of them will limit winning players. But there was no alternatives, this is why bettors stick with those betting sites.

So, the question is, what if there is a way to improve security, reduce cost of transactions, speed up transactions and at the same time allow bettors to bet anonymously on betting sites from all over the world. What if there is a way, where you don’t need to be afraid, that bookmakers will not pay you? What if there is a way to improve the trust between bettors and bookmakers?

And here blockchain technology steps in…

A blockchain is a digitized, decentralized, public ledger of all cryptocurrency transactions. Users are in full control of their information and transactions, database can be shared without central authority.

How can blockchain and cryptocurrencies improve sports betting world?

First of all, bettors can bet anonymously, without providing any personal information. There are already couple of bitcoin bookmakers, where you can bet anonymously. Here you can see how easy is to open an account at Nitrogensports, where you can create your account without giving away any personal information.

To open an account with bitcoin bookmaker you don’t need to provide any personal info:

 

This gives bettors anonymity and because of that their government authorities don’t know, that they were betting on sports.

Secondly, transactions are instant, cheaper and more secure. Blockchain brings transparency to all transactions.

And thirdly, smart contracts allow fair resolution of bets and payouts to occur automatically.

Because of that, bookmakers will gain more trust. Because of cheaper transactions, their operating costs will be lower and because of that they can offer better odds too. With no country restrictions, those bookmakers will have much bigger pool of bettors and because of that they can also offer much more sports events. I also believe, that those bookmakers who will not adopt to new situation, will not have any chance against new fair online bookmakers which will be based on blockchain technology.

The first step in right direction is made, there are couple of very good bitcoin bookmakers out there, where you can bet without providing your personal information. I see huge difference between old traditional bookmakers and new bitcoin bookmakers.

But we must separate bitcoin bookmakers from some fiat bookmakers, that accept bitcoin payment method.

Strictly bitcoin bookmakers are those bookmakers, where your account balance is held in bitcoins.

There are also some other bookmakers, especially offshore bookmakers, that will accept bitcoin as a payment method. But your account balance is not held in bitcoins, but in dollars.

The question is what are the benefits of bitcoin bookmakers – those bookmakers, where your account balance is held in bitcoins:

Instant deposits and withdrawals
Deposits and withdrawals are made very quickly. We are talking about minutes, seconds. Some betting sites accepts transactions with zero confirmations.

Zero to low fees
The fees are almost zero. We pay only small fees to miners, but we avoid all kind of transactional fees from banks or other “middleman”. On the long run this means a lot.

Worldwide
Bettors are sick of country restrictions. Pinnacle has good odds… but this is not helpful for US players, UK players and many others, because they simply don’t allow them to bet there.

Bet anonymously
A lot of bettors will switch to bitcoin bookmakers only because of this. You don’t need to verify your identity and send them all kind of your personal information including personal photos. Email and your username is enough to bet with bitcoin bookmakers. The same is with gambling sites. A lot of people want to stay anonymous when they gamble. Bitcoin bookmakers are perfect for this.

And the last and not the least important – one of the best investment opportunities right now
A lot of people don’t see the huge investment opportunity if they bet with bitcoins. Let’s say that you decide to take $10,000, divide this money on bitcoin bookmaker and fiat bookmaker (odds are the same, bets are the same). Let’s say also, that you will bet exactly the same bets at the same time on bitcoin bookmaker and fiat bookmaker. Let’s say, that you are skilled bettor and you will made 500 bets with the yield of 7% from January 2017 to November 2017. All bets will be the same (flat strategy) – $100.

What is the true difference if you bet with bitcoin bookmaker or fiat bookmaker, exactly the same bets with exactly the same starting bankroll?

FIAT BOOKMAKER:
If you make 500 bets with $50 per bet and the yield of 7%, you will make exactly $1750 of profit.

Starting bankroll: $5000
Bet size: $50 per bet
Total Risked: $50*500 bets = $25,000
Yield: +7%
Profit: +$1750 on 1st November 2017

 

BITCOIN BOOKMAKER
On first January you decided, that you will turn $5000 into bitcoins and then you will bet with bitcoins until November (exactly the same bets than on fiat bookmaker).

Starting bankroll: 5.1795 BTC (1 BTC was equivalent to $962 on January 2017)
Bet size: 0.051975 BTC per bet (equivalent to $50 on January 2017)
Total Risked: 0.051975 BTC*500 bets = 25.9875 BTC
Yield: +7%
Profit: 1.819 BTC on November 2017
Profit in $: $11951 on 1st November 2017

But the price of bitcoin on 1st November 2017 was not $962, but $6570.

In reality this means, that if you bet with bitcoins, you would make almost 10 times more money than betting with fiat money.

Why is this so?

A lot of people see investing in cryptocurrencies as one of the best investment opportunities right now. The world is changing and digital currency will probably replace old currencies. The predictions show, that bitcoins could raise up to $100,000 in 2020.

So, if you have betting skill and if you can combine this with crypto investment, you can make 10 times more money than betting on fiat bookmakers.

And those are the benefits to bet with bitcoin bookmakers. The time is now. I have great experience with bitcoin bookmakers and I have no problems with withdrawals. Bitcoin bookmakers like Nitrogensports, Cloudbet   or Sportsbet already offer much better odds than most other fiat bookmakers.

VISIT NITROGENSPORTS

VISIT CLOUDBET

VISIT SPORTSBET

 

I am connected with sports betting betting world since 1998, things changed dramatically since then and the market is bigger than ever. Bookmakers are smarter, bettors are smarter, the world is changing and we must improve all the time if we want to make something good happen in this speculative business…

Bookmakers made a lot of mistakes in the past and a lot of bettors beat them just because of that. They don’t make huge mistakes anymore and with the internet, easy to find information and sharp odds, it looks like it is harder and harder to beat them.

But despite all those things, I think that right now is the best time to become a millionaire.

I made a realistic plan and with little bit luck and a lot of work, discipline and padience, I believe I can become a millionaire in 5 years.

Last couple of months, I was thinking about moving ALL my money to bitcoin bookmakers. I knew, that one day this will happen and we always must adopt to new situation. This is the only way to succeed in this dynamic world, where everything has exponential growth. If you sleep for a moment, you are out.

But still, I didn’t want to completely go away from Pinnacle, 5Dimes and Matchbook, my favourite fiat bookmakers, that still have the best odds.

But then again, if we take into account the general problems with all kind of fiat bookmakers (country restrictions, identity verifications, limiting players,…) I think it was only a matter of time, when I will move all or part of my money to bitcoin bookmakers (NitrogensportsCloudbetLunarbetsSportsbet.io). I will still bet with the best fiat bookmakers, like Pinnacle, which is the best bookmaker in the world and I can still bet there, but if you can not bet at Pinnacle or any other low juice bookmaker, then I think right now is the time to move and make a step forward. (Explained — How to bet with bitcoins)

The idea…

Bitcoin is on the raise and I simply can not miss this huge opportunity. I believe, that if I will bet with bitcoins, I will make money with my betting on sports and also because of bitcoin raise. This will make me a millionaire.

Maybe I succeed, maybe not, but I think I should do it.

The idea and the goal is very simple: to make $1 million in next 5 years with starting bankroll of $4,400, which is today exactly 1 BTC (6/10/2017).

I optimistically expect, that 1 bitcoin will be worth $100,000 in next five years. Bitcoin is the future currency for all of us and it has been very successful story so far. And I think that this is just a beginning. There are couple of predictions, that bitcoin will raise up to $100,000 in next few years (Article 1Article 2Article 3…).

So, what I need is to start with 1 bitcoin in 2017 and then make a profit of 9 bitcoins in next 5 years. With little bit help of crypto market, I will be a millionaire.

The goal is to generate yield of around 3.9% and make around 1000 picks in one year.

Is it possible?

First of all, I don’t have any influence on bitcoin raise. I believe in the future of bitcoin and that’s all I can say. I am also very optimistic person.

So, I will focus on my betting skills. That’s all I can do.

I use predictive models for my sports betting, I don’t guess games (at least most of the times) and based on my past performance, it is possible that I reach this goal.

Since February 4th 2017 to October 5th 2017 I made 1067 picks on baseball and basketball, that were based on my math model (math model is something I will focus on in the future, limiting any gut/intuition/info-based bets):

MLB BETTING MODEL BETS (673 picks):

  • Period: April — September 2017
  • Profit: +4,109
  • YTD: 338–316–19
  • AVG ODDS: 2.04
  • Yield: +3.17%

BASKETBALL BETTING MODEL BETS (394 picks):

  • Period: February — May 2017
  • Profit: +3,264
  • YTD: 237–150–7
  • AVG ODDS: 1.91
  • Yield: +14.14%

The yield is way bigger than 3.9% and this is based on more than 1000 picks. So, YES I believe — it is possible and I will do my best. I don’t set unrealistic goal of 15% yield or +100% every year, but some realistic small growth.

Strategy?

Strategy and patience in sports betting is more important than most people think. When you have the goal and strategy, you don’t care about daily losses, even monthly losses. You can simply focus on your analysis and the results will come.

There is no such thing as overnight success or easy money. And becoming a millionaire will not be an easy task, I hope we all agree with it. But I can also promise myself, that I will do my best and hopefully, reach this goal.

The strategy question for me was: Flat or Progressive (proportional)?

The idea of FLAT strategy is: Start with 1 BTC and use 1% (0.01 BTC) as one unit whole year, no matter if your bankroll raise or goes down. After one year, reorganise bankroll and recalculate 1% again.

The idea of PROGRESSIVE (proportional) strategy is: Start with 1 BTC and recalculate 1% of current bankroll every day. If bankroll goes up, the bets are bigger ad vice versa.

In 2017 on my MLB bets, flat was better option, but the number of picks was also smaller. On the long run, progressive (proportional) will outperform flat, but it is is also a strategy with bigger ups and downs.

I think both strategies are good and I think I could succeed with both strategies. My calculations are made by flat, which has little bit lower results on the long run.

Here is the comparison of two strategies and as you see, at some point, if I can make a profit, progressive will outperform the flat.

What Sports will I bet?


Most of my bets will be from MLB baseball, NHL ice hockey and basketball. I will use predictive models and daily analysis for all my bets.

You can watch my daily analysis on my youtube channel — here.

I have the most experience with MLB, basketball has the best results in 2017 and NHL is a sport, where I can make a lot of profit, but I also struggle sometimes. But I believe that with combination of all three I can reach the goal.

Where will I bet?

NITROGENSPORTS — this is my first choice for MLB and NHL bets. Around 50% of all my money will be on this bookmaker. Safe, reliable, very good limits and very good odds compared to Pinnacle or 5Dimes and if you want to bet with me. Create account now at Nitrogensports

CLOUDBET — Best for my basketball bets, because they have the lowest basketball margins. Around 30% of all my money will be on this bookmaker. Cloudbet also has the best Welcome bonus (up to 5 BTC, cca $21,000). Create account now and get up to 5BTC at Cloudbet!

SPORTSBET.IO — this is the bookmaker with the best promotions every week. If you want to combine bets with other sports, like soccer/football, than this is a very good option. I will have around 10% of my bankroll and will try to get the best odds. Create account now at Sportsbet.io

LUNARBETS — this is a new bookmaker and they have the best odds and the lowest margins. If they can keep good work, I see them as a new Pinnacle of bitcoin bookmakers. They are young bookmaker, they are specialised in sports betting and e-sports and I will have around 20% money there. Sign Up Now and create account

How can you follow my progress?

  1. Email every day — SIGN UP HERE (100% free) (My personal bets are sent daily on emails. This is the best way to follow my picks. After you sign up for 5-day free betting course, you will be put on email list and you will get my picks every day into your email inbox. You can unsubscribe at anytime.)
  2. Daily Video (I rather record daily videos than write previews. In daily video I comment NHL/MLB games with my projected lines. A lot of time I speak about strategy, my sports betting life, etc. You can subscribe on youtube channel and you will have an access to my bets.
  3. Visit Underdogchance.com site every day (You can also check this page every day and the picks will be under My Bets section before the games starts.)
  4. MEMBERSHIP AREA — buy my online betting course, where I teach you how I use simple statistics and estimate the numbers in sports betting. Plus unlimited access to all exclusive content in membership area. Note also, that members get my picks immediately after I bet, because of odds dropping.

Will I succeed?

I don’t know. Our whole life is a game of risks and returns. Invest in your education and maybe you fail. Invest time and money to open a restaurant and maybe you fail. Go to the street and maybe you will be hit by a car. Our whole life is a combination of probabilities and risks. We don’t have influence on every thing.

Because of that, we must focus on things, that we can control.

If you have a goal, if you have a plan, if you commit, that you will work hard, if you are patient and if you have some skill, the luck usually also comes. Luck always favours the brave. And you must remember that brave are the people who take chances in life. This is how successful stories are made.

I have a goal, I have a plan and I work hard. I have some betting skills too and I have my betting models. Luck is not a factor on the long run, but I will believe in small luck with crypto market, where I don’t have any influence. Let’s see if I can become a millionaire.

MB, Underogchance.com

A lot of people asked me what is the best sport to bet and my answer is always the same – baseball. Bookmakers are very smart and they know how to attract bettors with all kind of promotions and other bonuses and they also know very well psychology of bettors and gamblers. They know how to attract them and a lot of people will fall into this trap. They will bet on sports, that they like to watch, not to invest. Of course NFL is great to watch, but from investing point I think, that there is no sport that is close to MLB.

Keep reading and I will explain, why I think baseball is the best sport to bet and how I bet on baseball.

Why I bet baseball?

The most popular sport in USA is NFL. There is 32 teams, that play 256 games in one season. Regular season starts in September and ends at the start of January.

Let’s take a look how much money can make one very good sports bettor in one regular NFL season if he plays every single game (1 game = 1 bet, spread for example). Let’s take an example, that he is very good and he will reach yield of 10% (some people call it ROI).

  • 256 games * $1000 = $256,000 risked money
  • Yield 10%: 0.1*$256,000 = $25,600

Very good NFL bettor will make $25,600 of profit if he plays every single game and if he is very good.

On the other side, take example of a very good MLB bettor, with the same yield and if he also bet on every single game in regular MLB season.

One regular MLB season has 2430 games and if we take that he bet on every single game (1 bet = 1 game).

  • 2430 games * $1000 = $2,4300,000 risked money
  • Yield 10%: 0.1*$2,4300,00 =$243,000 of profit

Very good MLB bettor will make $243,000 of profit, which is close to 10 times more than NFL bettor.

Of course reaching yield of 10% playing all NFL and MLB games is not possible, but I wanted to show you that potential in baseball is much bigger. Every day we have 10-15 games and if you are prepared to work hard on MLB analysis, I think there is no other sport that has so many opportunities.

There are also couple of other key reasons, why I bet baseball:

  • Huge market: This is not second league in voleyball, where the lines move quickly and where the limits are low. MLB is one of the biggest markets in sports betting world and in average you can bet much more than on any other smaller leagues.
  • Statistics: I am investor, not a gambler and I can not bet without analysis and without any statistics. Even if I made some intuition plays, I look first at the numbers. Statistics is very important for me. Baseball is sport with the biggest information about statistics. And we all know, that statistics and analytics is most important when it comes to predicting the future results. All successful businesses us it and I am huge believer, that traditional handicapping without analytics will be dead soon too. So, when you have a lot of data, you can also make better predictions and analysis. It is much easier to analyse a sport with 2430 games and data sets, than only 256. I hope you agree with me.
  • Underdogs: An average bettor is afraid to bet on underdogs. I think the main reason for that is because most bettors bet huge proportion of their bankroll (if they have one) and they are basically in a must-win situation every day. Underdogs in general are the teams, that has less than 50% of chance and of course they don’t want to be in a must-win situation, that has less than 50% of chance. Usually public is heavily with favourites and usually public lose a lot too. But in MLB baseball league the difference between the best team and the worst team is not that big. The best teams will win around 60% of games and the worst teams will still win around 40% of games. There is a lot of underdog wins every day and because of that a lot of chance for us, who are looking for the value, not for the winners.
How I bet baseball?

Most of my plays are moneyline bets. I don’t bet special bets and I rarely play totals. I stick with high limits bets, where I can invest more money. But before I answer on this question, let’s explain couple of other things, that are important.

One baseball game is one EVENT, right? And every event has two outcomes:

  • Home win
  • Away win

Every outcome has some probability or if you like – Team A has a chance that will win this game and Team B has a chance to win this game.

Bookmakers estimate those probabilities and then they turn those probabilities into the odds (plus some margin of course)

At the same time, I use my my MLB BASEBALL BETTING MODEL, that I reveal and teach you in my online betting course called A Journey.

I simply estimate my own probabilities and then I turn those probabilities into the odds.

So, what are the odds? The odds are the prices, that you will pay when you bet.

So, for example if I estimate, that Boston Red Sox have a chance of 56.44% to win a game versus NY Yankees, my fair odds would be 1.77 (US odds: -130). In this case I expect, that when I bet $1000 on Red Sox, bookmakers would pay me $770 for Red Sox win. And based on this number I decide if I will bet this game or not.

If bookmakers set the odds on Boston Red Sox 1.60 (US odds: -167), I will get only $600 if my bet (Red Sox) wins. In this case I was expecting at least $770 of profit, but I get only $600. And this is not a value for me. I would stay away from this game.

On the other side if bookmakers set the odds of 2.1 (US odds: +110) on Boston Red Sox, I would get $1100 of profit, which is $330 more than I would expect. And this is something I call it a value. In this case I would bet on Red Sox, because I get more for my money.

The value is something you face it every day. When you go to a store and you see two jackets, totally same quality and you like them equally, the logical decision would be to buy cheaper one. Why? Because you get more for the same money. And if you will do this constantly, you will save money. If you will look for the value constantly in sports betting, you will make a profit.

Bullpen and statistics is important!

There are two very big mistakes by bettors, that can not make a profit in baseball:

They use main stream statistics, found on ESPN, Yahoo and other main stream sites: One nice example is ERA, that is probably most popular statistics in baseball and most bettors will rely only it. ERA will show you how many runs one pitcher (or a team) allows per 9 innings. The problem with ERA is that is not the best future predictor. Much better are some other like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, whip, …

They ignore bullpen: The average pitcher will pitch around 5.5 innings per game. The game has 9 innings and most bettors simply ignore big part of the game (cca 38% of game) and this is the late game, where the game will be decided.

I don’t use main stream statistics and I pay special attention to bullpen too, because the game is usually decided by bullpens.

How I estimate odds?

I use my PREDICTIVE MODEL to project my own odds and probabilities for every single game in MLB season. The idea is to compare teams offence with other teams defence, which is combination of starting pitcher and bullpen.

When baseball season is on, I analyse every single game. Every day I calculate win% with the right starting pitcher and the formulas in the model, that I have created for baseball. Most of my data is automated and automatically pulled from the internet.

I just type:

  • The name of the team
  • Pitcher and his hand

And the model outputs winning percentages and my projected odds. Then I use Kelly criterium to estimate the optimal bet size.

Money Management

Baseball betting requires extreme discipline, expert money management and constant analysis and research.

I can teach you how to analyse games, how to create and use betting model, but there is also one other part that we all must fight on a daily basis: Work and discipline.

I use proportional money management, I call it progressive. Most of my bets are 1-2% of my current bankroll (I use adjusted Kelly criterium to estimate the bet size). Every day I re-calculate the stake. Why? Because on the long run, progressive (proportional) will outperform flat strategy.

Is it ideal or better than flat?

No, I wouldn’t say so and in fact flat outperformed progressive in 2017. Progressive strategy will outperform flat strategy on the long run, but the results will come after very big number of picks. It will also has much bigger ups and downs and many bettors don’t have the nerves and patience to bet like this. To recover after loss takes more time too. At some point you can also not bet this way, because bookmakers could limit you.

However, both money managements are good and I would not recommend any other money management. More important than this is that you stick with 1-2% on most bets.

Intuition vs Analytics

Statistics and analytics is more and more important. This is something that I always repeat and in the world of dynamic sports betting, following other people’s picks is not the smartest idea. So, if you get the odds of 1.91 (-110) or 2.00 (+100) is a big difference and it can be the line between losing and winning. This is why I think, that estimating the numbers and betting on your own is very important.

But still I see a lot of handicappers, that say, that they have “good info” and “experience”. Of course this can not work on the long run. Good info is easy to find with the internet and intuition, which is basically some sort of experience can not be measured. Because of that a lot of bettors and also some old successful bettors can no longer make a profit.

The good example for me was a 2017 season, when I made 738 picks. 65 picks was made by my intuition, that means, that I didn’t follow my math model. In the past I made a lot of profit with some extraordinary “so-called” intuition plays, but the times are changing. At least for me. Why? Because in 2017 I made -3185 units of loss on my intuition plays. At the same time I made 673 picks that were based on my math model and I made profit of +4,109 units on MLB baseball picks.

How do I know which is my intuition bet and bet that was supported by my math model? Because I tracked all bets and I wanted to see what are my results based on my model and my intuition. This is why I mark Intuition plays as GUT PLAYS (G) and my math model plays with (M)

HERE ARE ALL MY BETS IN 2017: DOWNLOAD MY MLB RESULTS

Chart 1: All bets (including Intuition bets) vs Betting Model bets

ALL BETS (including intuition bets): Profit: +924, WON 358 LOST: 357 PUSH 23 AVG odds 2.05 (+105), Yield: +0.67% Total Picks: 738

BETTING MODEL BETS: Profit: +4,109 WON 338 LOST 316 PUSH 19 AVG ODDS: 2.04 , Yield: 3.17% Total Picks: 673

Performance with different odds

In previous chart I showed you how important is to use analytics and my intuition bets were disastrous. On the other side my model has an edge and I made a profit.

So I went little bit deeper to see what results my model has with the different odds and I found that the best yield would be if I would play the odds between 1.80 and 2.20. But then again, I would play less games and I would make less profit. So I also wanted to see what is the odds range with the best profit and the most profit I made with the odds between 1.75 and 2.85.

Chart 2: Betting Model vs Adjusted Betting Model

Chart 3: All Bets vs Adjusted Betting Model

Flat vs Kelly Criterium

I use kelly criteirum to estimate my bet size. In a very simple explanation, when I see bigger value, I bet more and when the value is lower, I bet less. Or if you like, when the difference between my odds and bookmakers odds is bigger in my favour, I bet more and when the difference is smaller I bet less.

I wanted to see MODEL performance in the difference between flat strategy, where I would ignore kelly criterium and actual betting (with Kelly Criterium).

The average bet size was 1.777 units/game, so I couldn’t use 1 unit for flat, because the profit would be lower with flat analysis, right? This is why I use 1.777 units/game for flat analysis. I also didn’t take proportion strategy for this comparison.

FLAT STRATEGY (1.777 Units/game):

ACTUAL KELLY CRITERIUM STRATEGY:

As you see, both methods would make a profit with my model, but still if I use kelly criterium, when I estimate actual bet size has better results.

How much money would you make using this model in 2017?

I can not imagine sports betting without using analytics anymore. My MLB Betting Model is the heart of my sports betting.

Why?

Because I estimate the winning percentages for the games and then I calculate my own odds. This is the only way I see how to beat a bookmakers.

But there is a big difference between some systems and betting models. Systems are not betting models. Systems usually use some bettors, when they try to find the edge with different odds, different stakes, etc… But they don’t estimate winning percentages or spreads for games. So we can not call this as a betting model, but more as a system. And there is not one system that works on the long run.

With my model, I look at each game independently and I see one game as one event, where I estimate probabilities for outcomes.

If you used my math model and if you stick strictly with model, you would make a profit with combination of  progressive strategy and my adjusted Kelly Criterium you would make:

  • 673 Picks
  • 338 Wins
  • 316 Losses
  • 19 Pushes
  • +$4109
  • +3.17% of yield

If you used my math model and if you stick strictly with model, you would make a profit with combination of flat (not proportional) strategy and my adjusted Kelly Criterium and if you are $100 bettor you would make:

  • 673 Picks
  • 338 Wins
  • 316 Losses
  • 19 Pushes
  • +77.64 Profit
  • +6.49% of yield

Despite progressive will outperform flat on the long run, if you used flat strategy with combination of Kelly criterium for bet size, that was the best option in 2017.

I always recommend, that if you are $100 bettor (1 unit = $100), then you must have $10,000 of starting bankroll. In this case you would make +$7,764 of profit. Or in other words, if your starting investment is $10,000 at the start of MLB season, your ROI (return on investment) at the end of the season would be +77.64%.

If you played the odds between 1.75 and 2.85, then you would make +$10,520 of profit.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.

When I decided to run this site, I also decided, that I will not sell picks. Focusing on picks is wrong and we all must and can write our own successful sports betting story.

If you pay for picks, you will pay from $100 up to $1000 per month for their picks. Maybe you win, maybe you lose, most bettors don’t have any edge anyway and nobody can guarantee winning month or even a season.

When we take into account odds dropping and how hard is to follow other people’s picks on a daily basis, the only way to make money is to learn how to bet on your own.

I don’t give you picks, I show you how to make a picks. I reveal my MLB betting model. I teach you how to create one. This is exactly the same that I use for myself.

LEARN MORE

Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will open new NFL season tomorrow and there will be a lot of betting action whole season. Every season is a new season, new opportunity and we all start from the beginning. Some bettors or investors, if you like will be prepared for this season with strategy, betting methods and all kind of power rankings, but many of them will ignore one important thing – right bookmaker.
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So, I wanted to show you on real example how important is to select a good bookmaker and how much money you can lose if you ignore this. The average bettor will say, that he doesn’t care if the odds are -105 or -108 or -110, he just want the winners. And of course, this is wrong.
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I will show you on real example, that the difference between two same handicappers, with same skill and same results can be huge only because of one thing – bookmaker.
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MARGINS/JUICE

NFL is very popular in USA and this is why I focused on bookmakers, that accept US players, so there is no excuse, that you pick a wrong bookmaker.
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The first thing I wanted to know is how much money will bookmaker take from you when you bet. Every time when you bet, they take some small piece of cake. Some bookmakers will take more, some less and I wanted to see how much will they take from. Of course your goal is to pick that one, that will take less money, right?
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In the table below I picked 8 bookmakers and calculated the margins. The bigger is the number the more money they take from you. This is not hard to calculate. Just divide 1 by the odds and sum both numbers. If you have the odds 1.92 vs 1.86, then:
1/1.92 = 0.5208 = 52.08%
1/1.86= 0.5376 = 53.76%
52.08% + 53.76% = 105.84%
105.84% – 100% = 5.84%
I checked websites and took the odds right there – no betting portals or odds comparison sites. Then I calculated margins to see, which bookmaker has the lowest and which bookmaker has the highest margins. Then I took the average for moneylines, spread and the totals.
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As you see, the lowest margins has the Nitrogensports and right next to them is Cloudbet and Lunarbets.
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HOW MUCH YOU LOSE IF YOU DON’T CARE ABOUT BOOKMAKERS?

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I know a lot of bettors will say, that this is just small difference and that this is not important. But are they right?
 —-
So I took those average margins and I wanted to see what are the results on 512 picks during the season. Let’s say, that we have 2 bets on every single game (spread or totals or moneyline). 256 regular season games * 2 bets = 512 bets
 —-
And let’s say that we have 8 handicappers with same skill, same knowledge, same ability to pick winners,… let’s say, that they will make the same number of picks during NFL season and that they will have the same record.
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Do you think, that they will all make profit? NO WAY!
Table below shows different profits on different bookmakers if handicappers have the same record (1 unit per play).
At the end I compare $100 bettor versus $500 bettor versus $1000 bettor and how much money they lose if they pick wrong bookmaker.
If the handicapper decided to play all games on Nitrogensports, he will make a profit with the record of 263-249 (51.37%). On the other side some other handicapper needs to be much better to make profit if he plays at Youwager, for example. If he wins 5 bets more, he will still have negative record.
 —–
And what that means if we turn this into real money?
 ——
Let’s say that we have 8 really good handicappers, who will have outstanding season and will have the record of 297-215 (58%.00) at the end of the season.
 ——
If they are $100 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $1,247 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
 —-
If they are $500 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $6,236 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
 —–
If they are $500 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $12,474 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
 —-

I ASK YOU ONE MORE TIME, IS IT IMPORTANT IF YOU LOSE $10,000?

 —-
Losing $12,474 or $1,247 or even only $100 every season is not a joke. And if you lose money just because you bet on wrong place, this is very bad. Bad seasons will come, sometimes we will lose more games in a row, sometimes we will make less profit than we would expect. All those things will happen and sometimes we can not do anything about it. But do not lose money because of bookmakers, sports betting is hard job anyway, don’t make it harder because of that.
 —–

WILL BOOKMAKER WITH THE LOWEST MARGINS ALWAYS HAVE THE BEST ODDS?

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No.
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It is crucial to understand the difference between the best odds and the bookmaker with the best odds (Read here). And you also must to understand, that every bookmaker has pros and cons. Some will have higher limits, some lower, some will offer great welcome bonuses, etc..
 —

SO, WHERE TO BET NFL?

If we talk about the bookmakers with lowest margins and if we talk about how to make more money with the same record, then I think the best bookmakers are:

NITROGENSPORTS

CLOUDBET

LUNARBETS

Those three are bitcoin bookmakers and they are already better then most traditional (fiat) bookmakers in every aspect. If you are new with bitcoins, you can read here how to bet with bitcoins – here.
I hope this was helpful and you decide where you will bet. You know how to calculate margins/juice now, be smart and don’t give away your money.  I wish you successful NFL season.
MB