Step by step process how to win at sports betting from zero. Or even better, how to benefit from sports betting in the long run.

If you look at how sports bettors develop over time, I found that there are basically four stages of growth.

I named them as follows:

  • Childhood

  • Adolescence

  • Adulthood

  • Maturity

Every stage has its own problems, questions, and challenges. First two stages are hardest ones.

It is a framework designed to help sports bettors to gauge where they are right and begin to make certain decisions so they can move to the next stage of growth.

The 4 Stages of Sports Betting Strategy: Step by step from 0 to 100k

It is a step-by-step process and an action plan on how to go from zero to 1k, 10k, 100k, or even more and finally benefit from sports betting.

The fundamental question is how to benefit from sports betting so that before we die, we can say it was worth it.

Most gamblers are looking for the easiest way how to follow someone’s picks, someone’s system, or someone’s strategy.

Of course, there are some basic strategies and concepts on how to win at betting in the long run, like betting on the value, beating the closing line, dividing your bankroll into small parts and betting like 1% per game…

But there is no single magical strategy that will work for every single person, because we are all different and in different stages. And this is very important to understand.

We don’t have the same starting position. We have:

  • Different age
  • Different IQ
  • Different background
  • Different EQ

The strategy can not be the same for a gambler/sports fan without any math background, who doesn’t have any other investment and for example, a 30-year-old data scientist, who already made 100k in recent years from sports betting and this represents only 10% of his overall portfolio.

Of course, the strategy can not the same, because they are not in the same stage….but once you can identify and honestly accept your stage, you can focus on the most important step, which will bring you to the next level.

For the purposes of simplicity, I also described these 4 stages as follows:

  • From 0-$1000
  • From $1000-$10,000
  • From $10,000 – $100.000
  • From $100k+

This classification will help especially new sports bettors who start from zero.

Every stage has its own problems, questions, and challenges. This is why we will answer these important questions for each stage:

  • What is the main problem
  • What is the main challenge
  • What to avoid
  • What is the action plan to move to the next stage

But please understand that we have many unskilled bettors, rich gamblers, who will always be in stage 1. They bet huge amounts of money because they can afford it. These four growth stages are focusing more on the level of knowledge and skill that is necessary to move to the next stage and then finally to benefit from betting.

STAGE #1 – Childhood ($0-$1k)

In this stage, the biggest problem is that we have no idea, that we don’t know. Overload information and sports handicappers, who are basically more marketers, than actual bettors, give us a wrong picture about the whole thing.

Most sports bettors never move from this stage and they are stuck in stage #1 their whole life. They try to pick winners, they bet without and long-term approach or long-term strategy.

However, many gamblers decide that they will be gamblers on sport because they can afford it, they are willing to lose some money for the joy of betting. Nothing wrong with this. The beauty of gambling for entertainment is making your own bets, not following someone else.

There will always be gamblers, but we focus here on those, who want to benefit from betting in the long run and turn betting into an investment opportunity.

How can you identify bettors in this stage?

Usually, they are active on social media, betting chat groups, forums, betting portals and they try to share picks, follow picks, or even worse – buy betting tips. But the whole focus is on betting games and hitting that “winner”. Bettors in this stage are the main funding resource of the whole betting industry.

  • Main Problem of this stage: We don’t have enough knowledge about betting, probabilities, investing, money, we are delusional about the whole thing. We focus on short-term results and don’t understand the power of the long-term approach.
  • Main Challenge of this stage: To learn betting basics, to build investment habits, to learn basic statistics, and get familiar with the tool, that you will use later. The big challenge here is also honestly identifying if we love betting (numbers) or we just love the idea of money.
  • Things to avoid: Don’t bet in this stage. Stay away from social media and betting groups.

What to do – Step-by-step action plan for stage #1

  • If you bet, stop betting. First, learn to bet and how it works
  • Stop being active on social media groups, stop following handicappers, stop watching games for the purposed of betting, stop hanging around betting forums, portals, etc…they are not helpful and you can spend this time on your betting knowledge.
  • Do not pay for any picks, betting advice. Spend zero money in this stage.
  • Research (google) these topics:
  • What is probability and implied probability in sports betting
    How to calculate the margins, vig or juice in betting
    What is a sports betting model
    The importance of closing line value in sports betting
    What is the value in betting
    What are the odds and how to calculate the US odds, decimal odds (or fractional)
    What is survivorship bias in betting
    Dopamine in sports betting and gambling
    Skill and Luck in Sports Betting
    Wisdom of crowd
    Gambler’s fallacy
  • Read at least 2 books about investing and money (recommended for rookies: Rich Dad, Poor Dad – Kiyosaki and Money – Tony Robbins)
  • Read at least 20 betting articles (good source of info are pinnacle articles)
  • Read all Joseph Buchdahl books about betting
  • Research tools (betting software) that you’ll use later for analysing games and bet numbers. Some of the most popular are: excel, google spreadsheets, python, R,…

You can use 80/10/20 rule in this stage in terms of investing time, energy and effort:


STAGE #2 – Adolescence ($1-$10k)

In this stage, we already understand the betting theory. We also understand the importance of value betting, but now we must build our unique profitable betting system, betting method or sports betting model.

  • Main Problem of this stage: We don’t have a model or method to bet +EV.
  • Main Challenge of this stage: Build a system, model, or method. Test it on paper or with small money (0.1%-0.5% per bet). Patience will be tested.
  • Things to avoid: Betting too much. Once you build a profitable sports betting model, it is very important to control emotions, so we don7t overreact if we start winning. It is important to stick to the long-term plan.

What to do – Step-by-step action plan for stage #2

  • Research these topics: Regression analysis
    Advanced statistics in betting
    Sports betting models
    Expected goals, expected runs, expected whatever
    Tracking bets against the closing line
    Volatility and variance
    What is arbitrage betting
  • Use the tool that you picked in stage one and start building your betting model and test it against sharp bookmakers odds
  • One of the first things you should build is a simple betting tracker. This will be a good test if you gained enough knowledge in this stage, before moving on to creating a probabilistic model.
  • Research bookmakers/sportsbooks options in your location

You can use 80/10/20 rule in this stage in terms of investing time, energy and effort:


STAGE #3 – Adulthood ($10-$100k)

After we already have solid basics about sports betting and after we already successfully created our unique betting system, we start betting more. This is the stage, where the main challenge is how to keep profitable results and how to update our betting models. We will also have to deal with bookmakers.

  • Main Problem of this stage: Keeping profitable results. Dealing with bookmakers
  • Main Challenge of this stage: Keep updating your betting skills, model, method, connection with other similar thinking bettors. Finding good bookmakers, exchanges or even people who will bet for you.
  • Things to avoid: Betting too much.

What to do in this stage

  • Keep updating your betting knowledge (reading books, seminars, betting courses, etc…)
  • Connect with similar-thinking bettors to share ideas, etc… (don’t confuse this with hanging whole day on betting chat groups, social media groups,…)

STAGE #4 – Maturity ($100k+)

Sports betting has its own limits.  This is why it is important to see the whole picture and include betting in our daily and healthy life.

As I see sports betting is the whole benefit. Not just money. A sports gambler who wins money, but can not sleep at night because of gambling or he is angry on social media and fights against other bettors, who is better, didn’t really benefit from betting.

Sports betting as a single income stream is very dangerous. Any income stream that we have in life and if this is only income stream in our life – no matter how good – it is still only one step away from poverty.

The goal in our life is to generate as much as possible incomes streams.

Usually, we trade 3 things in life:

  • Time for skill (usually when we are young,…this is also a goal in the stage 1)
  • Skill for money (usually a job)
  • Money for money (investing)

Sports betting is an active income stream and can be a great channel for building investment portfolios and passive incomes. Sure there are professional gamblers who rely only on gambling, but it is very dangerous. I have never seen a healthy and happy gambler who relies only on a gambling income stream. Successful bettors I met in my life have more income streams and most of them use betting profits to invest later in passive incomes, business, building portfolios, etc…

And sports betting can be a great way to make money.

  • Main Problem of this stage: How to make more money, because there is a limit
  • Main Challenge of this stage: To accept that sports betting has its own limits (bookmakers, health,…).
  • Things to avoid: Focusing only on betting.

What to do in this stage

  • Start re-investing betting profits.
  • Stay under the radar when it comes to betting. Even betting less than in stage 3 and using profits as a channel for passive income
  • Connect with other similar-thinking bettors and other successful people (not betting related)

Maturity is once you understand that sports betting must be used as a very long-term approach (at least 10, 20 years).

Hope this guide will help you to identify at which stage you are and then take action to move further.


Sports betting is a huge business and more and more people try to follow free, guaranteed, or even paid picks. Since I started betting in 1998, sports picks selling became a huge business. It is not a secret that many sports handicappers make a profit by selling picks and not by actual betting.

So, if you are looking for sports betting tips and you want to follow someone (free or paid), continue reading, because I will explain why being a bet picks follower is worthless. And why I see only one logical reason to bet.

Following sports betting picks – is a non-optimal way to win at sports betting

A sports bettor who look for picks has very little chance to win at betting. Either he has a small bankroll or have not enough betting knowledge to understand how the market works or how to identify a winning bettor.

Even if such sports bettors can identify +EV bettor, the betting market is simply not friendly to followers. Especially now, when the lines move faster and when we have overload (bad) information and overload handicappers.

But let’s break down sports picks subscriptions and compare betting with other investments a little bit…

There are three key reasons why people bet on sports and only one makes sense

  • MONEY – most people want money and their dream is to achieve financial goals through betting. Which at the first look sounds good. The problem is that if the only motivation is the money, there are other better (or similar) investment options (high-risk, mid-risk, and low-risk), where you don’t need to pay, follow or even analyze the games.
  • LOVE FOR THE SPORT (BEING A SPORTS FAN) – if you love the sport you can play it or watch it. No need for betting. In this category, many people think that they know the sport and they will make money. The funny thing is that betting is not a sport, but a market. And those are 2 different things. Love for the sport is a bad reason to bet. Not only that is very bad reason, but many bettors also fall into gambling addictions.
  • LOVE FOR BETTING – which in translations means numbers, math, statistics, market, investment. I see only one logical reason to bet – this one. Most people don’t think this way and because of that they lose and struggle. Sports betting can not be passive income, because professional betting is always long-term, where you divide bankroll into small units and then place small units on games. And to do this, we need to analyze games every day. Because of efficient markets, line movements, etc.. following picks makes no sense, and following picks can not beat traditional investments in terms of ROI + time invested + risk tolerance.

How people follow betting picks and why this is the wrong way

People who look for picks are usually looking at how to make money. Their motivation is making money, not actual betting. let’s be honest here. But they choose the wrong industry because betting, in general, was not made for following.

Once you take into account the whole industry, this will not work for them.

This is a conversation from bettingadvice forum a couple of years ago, which will give us a different perspective about how the whole thing of following picks, paid betting services, picks monitoring sites, etc.. is an imperfect thing and in general following picks is a dumb thing and at the very end, an average bettor pays the price…

“A lot of paid services push their yield by taking advantage of using European bookmakers, early bets and using exotic sports for their services to achieve a higher yield, that makes them looking more attractive to potential customers.
For the average Joe is yield criteria number 1 that makes him becoming a new customer. Take for example a look at your competitor Blogabet.
Top 25 is homeland of Bet365 bettors, with just a few exceptions are all guys going the easy way by using exotic bookies, exotic markets and all the other things that make the work much easier.
Why is it that way?
Because +10% on the long run with Pinnacle in combination with a bigger soccer or basketball league is hard to achieve.
So they publish ITF tennis, Romanian 2nd league handball and all this ***. But who can blame them for that?
At the very end the foolish average Joes get what the foolish average Joes deserve. Most guys are stingy with monthly fees, want to pay pocket money but expect professional work with big bookies, never changing odds, 20% yield, no losing months and so on. They run away after just 7 bad days and jump from service to service as there really is one messiah outside they could miss in the meantime. “
“…bookie like Pinnacle open markets with a much lower max-bet that can easily be changed just by tiny investments. For example, the basketball Eurocup market starts just with a few 100 bucks a day before match-day. On match-day at around 10:00 it reaches max-bet of around 2k.
So it makes of course a difference if a paid service says today bet on Vilnius -3 points 
where market size is around 450 € at the moment or you make your shot tomorrow, where around 1.900 € can be invested.
Just for info, I am using an agent and have not the original max-bets of Pinnacle anymore available to avoid confusions by the numbers I used for the example!
So I suppose you can imagine what it means that 1 minute after recommendation was published by a service 15,20 or more customers, or their bots, immediately make their investments? Conditions will be not still the same anymore.

Another criteria is of course the max-bet itself, that is different at different sports and different leagues. Hence it is of course a big difference following somebody who is beating NBA match-day or Bulgarian basketball league early.

At the very end, and this is no critique into your direction betverified, because it is a general problem of the complete industry.
A verification service is an organisation that is imperfect – or better said it can just be imperfect because of many reasons.
What you show is the yield calculated by original odds, in the best case checked by yourself or in the worst case non-existing numbers that were valid a few minutes earlier before tipster made his own bet or gave bet to separate customer that made an exclusive deal with him.
But who gets in these times original odds where bots make a lof of the work just during seconds and odds immediately change just a few seconds after the pick was published?
No one does, may be the fastes 2 gunmen with the fastest internet but all the rest get worse conditions. At the very end it is more the illusion organisations like yours can create than the reality.
You can do nothing against this because also organisation like yours need successful paid services, because a paid service without success is a service without customers and without customers they will lose sooner or later their interest to pay your monthly fees by their own money. The illusiveness level can just be left by following the odds in the next 1-10 minutes after pick was published, by calculating a new real yield with the changed numbers that would lead to a much more meaningful yield.

To end this monologue where I ran off the topic, I am not that naive to believe that there is a party who is really interested in that.

The paid service guys themselves do not want this because it would destroy the complete illusion and make them lose most of their customers.
The organisations like Blogabet, Betadvisor and all the others that are not mentioned do not want this either, because they could also close their doors.
The only group left, who should be really interested in that, are the thousands of fools paying such services without a deeper understanding of how it works, where the dangers lurk and why most of these services are just a waste of time and money, selling something that can be hardly achieved by anyone.
But as I said before, I do not want to blame anyone in that game because a lot of problems are caused by the greed and foolishness of the customers themselves hence I can just repeat myself by saying that the foolish average joes get what the foolish average joes deserve in the most cases and this is the illusion of a possible better life they could live by the money they will never make by becoming a customer of such a service. But if you ask the same guys to donate money for the third world they would laugh at you because this is wasting money.”

The foolish Joe is the one who is looking for sports betting tips (free or paid)…

The funny thing is that most bettors think that they love betting, but in fact they love only sport and money. And these two reasons are not good enough for betting.

An average bettor whose only motivation is money would have much bigger chances if he would constantly invest 10%-15% of his money in the stock market and the world economy that grows and he doesn’t need to bother with results, games, and the stress that comes with all that.

Criticism of my statement above

Someone can say…

“But with betting, I can make better ROI.”

Yes, for sure. But we also have stocks that go +1000% in one year. We also have cryptocurrencies that go 1000%. The only difference is that you don’t need to pay subscriptions or you don’t need to follow anyone on a daily basis – which requires action and focus.

Identifying high % stocks or crypto is the same as identifying a sports handicapper, that will have positive future results. It’s a gamble, especially for an average Joe, who doesn’t understand probabilities, markets, odds, closing line value, the importance of betting models and algorithms, has no strategy or money,…

How following picks work anyway?

If you want to follow someone, you must use his strategy and catch his every pick at the same price, which is possible only in theory. If you can identify a winning bettor that has the edge, he will probably beat the closing line, which means that when you will be late, you’ll not get the same odds and the same profit. Following picks becomes a 24/7 job, because you must catch every pick and if your sports handicapper is a professional he will also make different bets during the day, because of catching right odds.

If we add picks subscriptions, this is then your full attention 24/7 + effort (open email, bet, risk) + money for the service.

The same risk-reward can be gained through the stock market or cryptocurrencies.

But I can not identify good stock markets, crypto… Can you identify a sharp bettor?

This is a funny thing when I hear because an average Joe can not identify winning bettor and the whole situation that will:

  • take into account line movement
  • size of bankroll
  • the edge that his handicapper has
  • the knowledge that his handicapper has

Most followers when they select a sports betting expert, they simply don’t understand the market enough to make a good selection. They will select a sports handicapper based on profit, maybe ROI or yield. And most of them will not even pay attention to the sample size of bets, the knowledge, etc…

And even if they have enough knowledge, the sample size beats them. 

Stock markets are based on 100 years of sample size data (The average stock market return is about 10% per year for nearly the last century. The S&P 500 is often considered the benchmark measure for annual stock). If you are lucky you’ll find a sports bettor who has maybe 10 years of sample size data.

Do all sports gamblers who follow betting tips lose?

Of course not.  Not all followers will lose, but the question is how much luck is involved and how much survivorship bias is involved.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to discredit any sports betting expert, because there are many who do a great job, but the whole “following picks, paying picks…” makes no sense and will not help most bettors.

Nishikori tennis tipster is a great example of a very good tipster, who sells his picks. I have a big respect for him.

But if we talk about the most optimal way to win at sports betting, I am pretty sure after being part of the betting community for the last 20 years… is the combination of personal betting skills, knowledge, and effort.


Sports betting vs Other Investments

Let’s go a little bit deeper to explain why picks make no sense if you love money.

Here I compared 3 different options:

  • Investing in stocks
  • Investing in stocks + adding $2000 in average from betting every year (this is +20% per year on average with 10k bankroll as an example. I had negative seasons, but I also had a season, when i quadrupled my money, but let’s take +20 as an average)
  • Investing in stocks + crypto, where I took both averages as +30% a year (in reality, investing in bitcoin is much higher than 50% per year, over the long run, but let’s take +30%) + adding $2000 of profit per year from betting.

The idea is this:

  • Take the first 5 years:
    – to invest $300 every month in stocks (no betting, no crypto)
    – learn betting with smaller bankrolls or even paper betting and save $10,000 for betting
  • After 5 years of investing $300, you have $21,978.36 (no betting yet)
  • Then stop investing $300 and leave it + try to make a profit of 20 units per year with starting bankroll of $10,000 (which was saved during 5 years, while you were learning).

After that:

  • add every year $2000 (from betting profits)

Stocks market, bitcoins, sports betting,…

I took for our calculation stocks that are 10% for the last 100 years (S&P500), I took bitcoin + stocks average as +30%, which is very very low and in reality is much bigger. Plus I added +20 units every year from betting.

After 20 years it’s $100,000 – $200,000K

Most people retire broke at the age of 65. And patience here is important. Most people don’t have it.

And I used very conservative numbers and took 5 years to learn about betting.

With so many investment options in the modern World, this % can be +50% easily. And if you can add some profits from betting to this is great

Here is one of my crypto portfolios that made +961% in one year (screenshot taken on April 6th, 2021):

The whole idea of betting is generating more income streams… and in this case, generating extra income streams is a great way.

Paid Sports Picks Example – FOLLOWERS

And now let’s see if following picks even make sense, where you need to hunt picks, be ready to open the email, be ready 24/7 to bet and get the same odds,… and at the end, you must pay subscriptions. Even following free picks is in most cases complete nonsense. And when I talk about sports betting, I am always referring to long-term focus. People who are in sports betting for quick profits or are focusing/paying one month or season picks,… this is always a gamble and can be pure luck.

The first problem is identifying a winning bettor… but let’s say you are lucky to find one

So we will have a sports betting picks follower (99% of people are looking for picks, let’s be honest), who will pay for picks. It all depends what is his bankroll size, what is the subscription charge and even with this, his handicapper must make a very good yield.

Let’s take one good handicapper (source pyckyio) as an example, he is one of the best tipsters in the World. But I don’t want to discredit his work, because I think he is doing an amazing job. Of course, I excluded all “shady” big betting portals and social media sports handicappers that don’t have big sample size of bets and at the same time, they have no knowledge about betting (, understanding the market, closing line value talk, ROI, yield, analysis,..).

I just want to show you that for most people sports picks following idea is very bad. Nobody’s fault. Sports betting was simply not made for the following. If you want passive income or make money with less effort, simply invest.

Following a good sports tipster…


  • 50 picks – 286.30 EUR
  • 200 picks – 564.85 EUR
  • 1000 picks – 169.55 EUR


If you follow him (take into account that we have one of the best tipsters here – and average Joe can NOT find him or identify him), your yield will be lower.

So, let’s say that you follow him and in reality, you can not catch all his odds or bets, and you will be late, but let’s say you still reach the yield of +7%.  (His taken odds vs closing odds are +8.4% vs +5.4%)

Can sports picks following beat an effortless stock market (+10%) in terms of money, stress, and subsriptions included?

We will take an example of 1% unit for betting and taking into account realistic results (if they continue). This is compared to stock market, which is based on 100 years sample size. Note that bettors don’t have 100 years’ sample size of results. But let’s ignore this :-)

Picks subscriptions taken into account…

#1 option – buy 1000 picks

The first option is to pay 1000 picks, which costs 1694 EUR (2000 USD). This will last for a little bit more than 1 year (his avg year picks are 756)

To benefit from this, you must:

  • Pay 1694 EUR for a betting tips subscription (every 1.5 year)
  • Have starting bankroll of 5.000
  • In total, you must have at least 7000 EUR to start
  • also expect that he will continue with the same exceptional results

In reality, most bettors will not have a bankroll and a start with 5000 EUR ($5,900 USD) and will not pay 1694 EUR  at the start.

This option makes sense, if this sports handicapper will continue with same results and if you have at least 7000 EUR. We didn’t take into account the time that you will have to spend for opening emails and be ready 24/7, which is not the case in the stock market, where you invest once per month and they you don’t need to bother with it (at least this is how investment should look like). It all depends how you value your time.

#2 option – buy 200 picks

So if you take the second option, it costs 564 EUR (667 SUD) per 200 picks

To benefit from this, you must:

  • Pay 564 EUR (667 SUD) for a betting tips subscription (approximately every 3rd month)
  • Have starting bankroll of 30.000 EUR (35,000 USD)
  • also expect that he will continue with the same exceptional results. The problem is that you paid for shorter period of subscription and in a short period you can face negative results too, even if he is a long-term winner.

In this second option, if you play safe with the bankroll and with 1 unit = 1%, you will need at least $30,000 to beat stock market in terms of annual %. We took into account how many sports betting picks he made, subscriptions price and stock market results that are based on 100 years. And again, we are ignoring the time you will need to invest for following picks and opening emails.

#3 option – buy 50 picks

So if you take the third option, it costs 268 EUR (315 SUD) per 50 picks

To benefit from this, you must:

  • Pay 268 EUR (315 SUD) for a betting tips subscription (approximately every month)
  • Have starting bankroll of 100.000+ EUR (118,000+ USD)
  • also expect that he will continue with the same exceptional results. The problem is that you paid for shorter period of subscription and in a short period you can face negative results too, even if he is a long-term winner.

Does this searching for sports tips on the internet even make sense?

So, why would you pay a subscription, follow everyday picks (this is extra work), when you can get the same results just by investing and at the same time playing with the kids and family.

And again, I don’t want to discredit this handicapper, because I think he has amazing results. But unfortunately, an average bettor who is looking for sports betting picks has no $7,000, not $30,000, and not even $100,000 to start. Let’s be honest about this.

Most sports bettors fall in the third option anyway…

The third option, which I think most bettors will fall (paying for 50 picks) is most common. In general following and paying picks is a complete waste of time, unless you have a big bankroll of 100k. And when you have big bankroll, you will face another problem with bookmakers.

It is very hard to identify a good handicapper like this above and the prices on betting market are very similar to this if you find a quality one.

  • Ninety percent of gamblers will fall to recognize such handicapper. This is the first problem
  • Secondly, they will not have such bankroll and the money to pay this
  • Then you must pay every year and nothing is sure in betting
  • Even he can lose the edge

What about following FREE sports picks and Guaranteed picks?

The word guaranteed should not be used in sports betting. Betting portals and sports handicappers use this word for false marketing. I also think that the responsibility of everyone who wants to start betting is to learn about the market and the risk involved.

When it comes to following FREE picks:

  • Most good handicappers don’t share picks anyway.
  • Some share picks, but an average follower can not identify a good betting expert
  • Being a betting expert is not just throwing some picks, but also showing some level of knowledge.
  • Following bet picks is boring
  • Following picks takes even greater discipline because you must do something like open email, bet, watch games every day without being creative. Do you think that an average Joe has the discipline to open an email every day for the next 365 days and catch every single of 750 picks? no way
  • Following is not creative. Being creative is what life is all about. Being not creative, not putting any work will kill your soul, while at the same time you are involved in this (open email – bet – follow results – stress). Wheter you like it or not, you’ll still need to do the daily dirty job. Even if this is just following. Because if you invest in the stock market. You do this every month only once. On the salary day, let’s say 15th in the month, you invest 15% and that’s it. It takes exactly 1 minute per month, just to invest in your fund or it takes 5 minutes to invest in bitcoin. If you follow bet predictions and picks, you must do this every day. You must bet every day. You must be ready for emails because picks can come anytime. You must be ready 24/7 to catch his picks. And you are not creative – this is very important. You don’t love numbers. If You don’t love statistics, analyzing games… I simply don’t see any point here

I try to think like a follower, but my mind can not relate to it. Of course, connecting (not blindly following) with other betting experts will bring you value… but in the long run, I think there must be some joy, creativeness, and something that we love.

Not even healthy

If someone spends 5 hours being just an “automation follower machine”…. that’s a very dangerous game for a mind/health.

This is why I think there must be some passion for numbers, markets, and investments because you’ll need to put some effort.  Sports bettors simply don’t see the bigger picture, that money is not a good reason to bet, because if you don’t have the edge and the knowledge, you will probably be a follower or a loser. But I thin I think I explained that many other options will beat betting if you don’t love betting.

Love for the sport is not the same as love for the market.

Sports betting is not for everyone… what is the solution?

In fact, I think that betting is not for 99% of the people that I met in my life and many of them wanted to bet because money is very attractive. Mostly because they saw the quick solution to profits.

But in my living bubble (which can be biased too of course) I think that the most optimal way is to learn to bet, connect with the same thinking people, build unique methods, make profits on your own.

This is why I decided to show how I use spreadsheets in betting and I believe that this is what brings the most value to bettors.

Sports betting must be always a long-term focus and If you bet for yourself, you can have solid yield, make a profit for yourself, re-invest and that’s it.
Most bettors who pay for picks usually don’t have even close to $10,000 starting bankroll and it is very optimistic to expect that your handicapper will reach a 7% yield in the next 20 years.

Investing in knowledge is a cheaper option

Investing in the knolwedge is much better option, because people who don’t love betting will always have a hard time making profits. The hardest thing is sometimes to be honest to yourself and say… “I don’t love betting. I am just a gambler and sports fan. I like excitement”.

There are people who bet for fun and they can afford some losses. But they don’t need to follow anyone. The beauty of following is in making your own plays.

People who love money should invest in other passive income streams and assets without any effort.

And people who really love sports betting will always try to find a way how to make their own bets.

I bet on sports because I love numbers, I love investing, I love challenges of the market. If I would not loev this, I would not bet. And this is what I recommend to everyone. Don’t bet just because you love money or sports. There are much better options for making money and you can have fun with your family or play sport.

But if you really love betting, you can generate extra income streams and for most people out there following picks is a non-optimal way to win at betting.

At least this is how I see this in my bubble.

Am I against Selling Sports Picks?

My whole betting philosophy is built around the idea:

“Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime”

I don’t believe in following sports picks. I even think that bettors who are not serious about betting should not even bother with betting content/picks and just have fun with their friends when they bet.

But I am definitely NOT against selling picks. Buying picks and following picks market will always exist until an average Joe will bet. I think that prices for people who want to follow sports betting picks should be minimum of $10,000 per month.

But that’s my view, my philosophy. And there are other philosophies that are completely different. But I preach my philosophy that I think is the most optimal for an average bettor to make money in betting. And I don’t see a reason to bet if the focus is only money or love for the sport. I think there must be a passion for betting, which means a love for numbers, statistics, probabilities, algorithms, investing… and these people will invest time, money, and effort to become winning bettors. Not winning followers. Followers are in the majority of cases, not winners.

I saw people who bet and at the same time, they think that 2+3*2= 10

How can such a person understand markets, probabilities or even identify winning sports handicapper?

No chance. And these people are just following. Picks, picks, picks.

Most people who are involved in social media, betting forums, Twitter,… and in general in the World are looking for picks.

Is this the most optimal way to win?

Definitely – not.

Can it work?

For sure. Nishikori is a nice example.

Can it work for most people and average Joe?


Sports betting is a beautiful and a great way to make extra profits, but it is definitely not for everyone. The industry is not friendly for followers, sports fans, gamblers, and an average Joe, because of many reasons.

Most money is made from liquidity and margins from bookmakers and then from marketing (affiliates, portals, forums,…).

Read who are the winners and losers of sports betting World

Only 3% of bettors win at sports betting and most of them are not followers. Following is not optimal way to win at betting. Following is not an optimal way to win in life.

And I am talking about lifetime or very long period of time focus. I am not talking about one NFL season, but benfiting from betting on the long run.

If you pay $100 per month for picks subscriptions…. you’ll pay $24,000 USD in next 20 years. Imagine that you invest $24,000 in stocks with compound effect in the next 20 years. No effort needed and big sample size of results.

Betting must be a passion. 

Find passion. Invest time, money and efforts in your passion. If this is betting, great. If you look for passive incomes without effort, simply invest or generate passive income streams. But this is unfortunately not sports betting.

Wish you all the best in sports betting.


Start Your betting journey with Free Betting Course 

Baseball season will start today with the first game between Toronto Blue Jays and NY Yankees and many sports bettors will bet and try to win. MLB betting is one of the most interesting markets.

If you are new to betting, new to baseball betting, or if you are an experienced MLB bettor, I want to share some of the very useful tips that I used for myself.

MLB betting market & How to bet on baseball?

Different sports and leagues focus on different betting markets. For example, the most popular bet type in NFL betting is point spread betting or in soccer leagues 1-x-2 betting.

In baseball betting, this is moneyline betting. In other words, we need to pick a team that will win the game. And MLB moneyline betting is also my favorite bet type.

The list of popular baseball bet types and betting markets:

  • Moneyline – picking a team to win. Example: Red Sox +134. If you bet $100 on Red Sox +134, you would make a profit of +$134 if they are a winner at the end of MLB match.
  • Run Line – is the version of handicap or point spread betting, where the team is given some points (runs) befor the game starts. Example: Red Sox (-1.5) +110. To win this bet, Red Sox must win by at least 2 runs. And this case your $100 bet would make a profit of +$110.
  • 1st half betting – First half betting focus is on first 5 innings, which is very interesting for bettors because they can pay attention to starting pitchers and not the whole baseball game. Their bet is won or lost depends o what happens in the first 5 innings. Most of the bet types are moneylines, totals or some bookmakers also offer 1-x-2, where x is another possible outcome – draw.
  • Totals or Over / Under betting – In this case, we bet baseball games on the total runs. There are some variations of totals betting, like for the full game, half-game or even for the team and how many runs this team will score independently if they win or lose. But the most popular is MLB betting on Under/Over for the full game. Example: Under 10.5, that means that if the total score in the game is (Red Sox vs NYY) 3-6, you won a bet. 3 runs + 6 runs = a total of 9 runs, which is less than 10.5 runs.
  • Player propositions – This bet type is more and more popular among baseball bettors and it is basically betting on players’ performance. It usually comes as a total bet type. Example: Trout home runs – Over 1.5. In this case, your bet will be won if Mike Trout hits more than 2 home runs.

How I bet baseball and my last season results?

Baseball betting season 2020 was very unusual because of Covid situation, but we still managed to make a profit.

  • 63 -47-6, +15.20 (Yield: +10.14%, CLV: +1.65%)

I was using my baseball betting model to bet on MLB games.

Every single game was independently analyzed, where the goal of the model was to get the probabilities of different outcomes.

These probabilities were turned into the odds and then compared with bookmakers’ odds. If there was enough big discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers, this was considered as a qualified baseball bet.

To identify MLB value bets, I used adjusted kelly criterium.

Mistakes to avoid in baseball betting 2021

Here are the common mistakes that bettors make.


Don’t focus on winners in MLB sports betting. The whole concept of winning in sports betting is based on value. Sports bettors usually try to pick a winner and they can be lucky in short run, but on the long run, and especially in baseball betting, where we have more than 2000 games in one season, only focusing on the value makes sense.


Every baseball game from a betting perspective is an independent and unique event. This is why we need to analyze every single game with current matchups and situations. If one team lost 5 in a row, that doesn’t mean that they will win (or lose) the next game. The next game is unique match and we need to identify value bet based on available market odds.


Baseball is a sport. Baseball betting is a market. Those are two different things and many baseball fans and baseball gamblers confuse these two things. In betting, we must beat the market and the numbers. The love for baseball or being a baseball fan is not very helpful, if you can not turn your knowledge into probabilities.


An average baseball bettor rely on mainstream statistics, like ERA, batting average and similar information that he can find on ESPN and similar sites. Usually, these MLB statistics are not useful and have very little (if any) predictive power.


This is something we hear all the time. I constantly hear that statistics are not important, that we need to pick winners, etc… Baseball is all about statistics. We have amazing information about past MLB games and the whole science about baseball stats and data is called sabermetrics.


Trends are very dangerous and don’t help us to predict future probabilities of the games. Trends are used as mainstream information for bettors who write analyses and don’t use other probabilistic methods. Trends are just the result of data mining and we can almost always find a contra-trend.


There is no such pattern. It is always only a value or no value. The market will always adjust and such patterns can not be profitable.

  • UNDEDOGS SINCE 2010: -$106,545 (ROI -4.3%)
  • UNDERDOGS 2020: -$4,562 (ROI: -4.9%)
  • FAVOURITES SINCE 2010: -$12,467 (ROI: -0.3%)
  • FAVOURITES 2020: -$274 (ROI: -0.2%)

Useful tips for MLB sports bettors in a new season


Always have the goal, strategy and bet a small proportion of your bankroll. It is recommended to use 1% as a unit.


Watching games is for most bettors complete waste of time. There is a big confusion between betting and being a baseball fan. Most bettors are just sports fans and gamblers, who watch games, because it is exciting. But in reality once the game starts (if we talk about pre-game betting), we simply don’t have any influence on the outcome of this game. This time can be spent much better for betting education or building your own MLB sports betting model. Some bettors will say, that watching games can help them better predict the next game, which is complete nonsense. In this case, watching games would be collecting and analyzing the data with our brains and eyes, which is not possible. It is also not possible to watch all games to collect the data properly. Because of that, we have very good sites like fangraphs or baseball-reference, that collect the data for us. Unfortunately, many times watching + betting is just another addiction.

#3 BET EARLY & DON’T Follow baseball betting picks

Beating the closing line in baseball betting is important. In other words, that means, that you get better odds than other who bet just before the game starts. The MLB odds just before the game starts is most efficient and because of that is not possible to beat in the long run.


Always pay attention to starting pitchers’ hand. Some teams are better versus left-handed pitchers, some teams are better versus right-handed pitchers.


Around 30% of the games are decided by the bullpen. Bullpen are reserve players who will replace the starting pitcher. Many baseball bettors pay attention only to starting pitchers, but in average starting pitchers pitch around 5 innings. The last 3-4 innings are very important and this is where the game will be decided. Teams with good bullpens have a huge advantage. Never ignore bullpens.


Every serious sports bettor tracks his bets. This will give you a better picture of your MLB betting season and you can modify or adjust your betting model or baseball betting system that you use.

Read also: Bet Tracking Spreadsheet explained: 5 Statistics Bettors Should Track


Find a reliable bookmaker or sportsbook. Not all bookmakers will allow you to win hundreds of thousands of dollars, but there are still good bookmakers who will pay you if you win and who offer very good and competitive odds. Selecting a sportsbook always comes with your location, so there is no general rule, where to bet. Good options, if you can bet here, are sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges like Pinnacle, Matchbook, 5Dimes… some very good offshore betting sites for US bettors, like Bovada, Betonline,…. or if you bet baseball with bitcoins check nitrogensports or Cludbet.

Read also: How to win bonuses and list of bonuses at one place

Note also, that most bookmakers will not have listed pitchers this season. In the past when we bet on baseball games, the pitchers were listed and if in some cases pitchers were scratched from the games, just before the game started, the bet was canceled. This season this will not happen. Bet is accepted no matter if the pitcher will be changed later.


Another very useful tip is to check news and injuries regularly. Because of the covid situation, there can be more lineup changes and you must take this into account when you make MLB Betting analysis. These news can be found on any site and usually good reference is

My baseball betting strategy for MLB season 2021

  • Using my betting model to project my odds
  • I will use different sources to find info about starting pitchers and lineups
  • Compare my odds versus bookmakers odds
  • Bet on a value based on my adjk kelly criteria
  • 1 unit = 1% (most bets will be from 1-3 units)
  • Doubleheaders will be played with half of the recommended unit
  • My target this season = 20 units

I wish you a successful baseball betting season!

If you want to learn more about me, my betting methods and how I built sports betting models – Sign Up Here For a Free Sports Betting Course.

Read to make a next step today?

Join Premium course which includes my private MLB baseball sports betting model to download.

The middleman is losing the battle and the technology allows us to connect better than ever before and this is the reason why crypto sports betting is more and more popular. Bitcoins, cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology will shape many markets and industries. This is not a prediction, this is a reality. It is happening now.

Check out First Blockchain, No-Limit, Decentralized Crypto Sportsbook 

Many Sportsbooks are unfair middlemen

Sportsbooks control the game now and this is completely fine for most recreational bettors. Many of them are very fair, let’s be honest here. Sportsbooks were initially not made to build markets, where professionals will trade there, but the idea was to offer some kind of entertainment, which a gambler is willing to pay.

But the game has changed and the whole industry is growing. The betting markets are sharper, sports betting models are used more than ever before, professional gamblers and winning bettors grow every year. The sports betting industry is becoming a serious market like the stock market. Many who live professionally from betting are asking for changes.

Without success…

What bettors don’t like about current traditional sports gambling sites

Traditional gambling sites and sportsbooks are fully centralized companies. They set the rules, they set the limits, they control the prices on the market (odds), and many of them without any regulations.

But the basic concept is this:

  • Sportsbooks offer Free Bets, Welcome Bonuses, and Promo Codes to attract players
  • They have full control over the rules, payment options, markets, bet types, the odds, and even payouts
  • After they take bets, they move the odds or even close the market if they think this is a good thing to do at that moment
  • Pay the winning bets

The issues with current Sportsbooks

  • Centralized – all sportsbooks are centralized, which means, that they can set and change the rules as they want.
  • Unfair odds – “the house always wins” because of unfair odds, which is known as vig or margin. This is their commission that they take. But most sportsbooks offer completely unfair odds and have an unfair advantage in the market.
  • Country restrictions – legalizations, restrictions, licensing, and all kinds of problems connected with bettors’ location. Sports betting is a growing industry and because of locations many bettors must accept the worst sportsbooks or they can not even bet.
  • Identification – Many bettors want to stay anonymous, but they must give their personal information to these sites
  • Unreliable – Not all, but many sportsbooks are not reliable, untrustworthy
  • Limiting and banning sharp bettors – this is a common practice by many bookmakers and it’s something that is done a lot and is considered normal.

No Limit, Decentralized, Fair Crypto Sports Betting on Blockchain

What if I tell you that there is a solution to this in the future?

I invested in Blockchain Crypto Sports Betting Project – Wagerr

Bitcoins and cryptocurrencies are more and more popular, especially in 2021. But for me, the whole story about bitcoins began in 2017, when I already saw that combination of blockchain technology, bitcoins (or other crypto sports betting tokens) could be the perfect solution to many problems that sports bettors face now.

Somehow I found the Wager Crypto Sportsbook and after I explored their White Paper, I decided to invest in the ICO (initial coin offering) of this company in 2017. Not because I wanted to make a huge profit from trading WGR coins, but more because I believe in this. I believe that this can be a solution to the sports betting world, which I am part of it. I simply wanted to support this crypto sports betting project for a better future, fair and easier betting.


The Keystone of Decentralized Sports Betting

  • Decentralized
  • Fair odds
  • Betting Exchange
  • Open Source
  • Anonymous
  • Wallets on blockchain
  • Smart contracts control bets and payouts

Why this is the answer to traditional sportsbooks?

Crypto Sports Betting Sites like Wagerr are based on blockchain and open source. The odds are fair and come with a small commission that has to be paid to developers, so the blockchain and the whole system works perfectly. They act like a betting exchange, where you don’t bet against a company that set unfair rules, but against other bettors. Someone can say, that we already have betting exchanges like Betfair. Yes, that’s true and many of them are great…

But the problems with betting exchanges are country restrictions and anonymity. This is where next-generation blockchain betting sites will have the advantage. Betting is fully anonymous and their payments are not controlled by banks or some other authority.

In other words, sports bettors don’t need to worry about their bets or accounts being limited, their payouts not paid, country restrictions, or staying anonymous.

Wagerr – No Limit Decentralized Sportsbook

Wagerr is currently the #1 decentralized blockchain crypto sports betting sportsbook. I was supporting that idea back then and I will keep supporting this idea in the future. Running a betting exchange on a blockchain, best odds, full anonymity and smart contracts is the dream of every bettor. It sounds like perfect sports betting world.


How to bet on Wagerr?

Go to Wagerr and Click “GET STARTED” on the top right corner.

If you are the first time, you will have to create an account, which is fully anonymous:

  • No email address
  • No passwords


After you click on Create Account, you will get 12 seed words, that are generated automatically.

IMPORTANT – Seed Words

A very important thing to do is to write down these 12 words and never lose them. Along with anonymity and decentralization, it comes also a responsibility.

Payment options

Betting on Wagerr is possible only with WGR. This is a unique token that is used for betting on the Wagerr blockchain.  Once you upload WGR, you don’t need to worry about withdrawals, because everything is fully automated, immediate, and transparent.

Mobile phone betting

The Wagerr mobile app act as a WGR wallet and a betting app in one. You can send, store, and receive WGR tokens. Betting on the Wagerr network is available directly from mobile phones.

Disadvantages of Crypto Sports Betting Sportsbooks


All betting exchanges have the same problem – the liquidity, which means, that if you bet on Team A, there must be a real person who is betting the right amount on Team B. Only in this case, such a bet can happen. When it comes to big events, major leagues, and popular bet types, the betting exchanges can work pretty fine.

But the problem starts especially with smaller markets and betting exchanges with not many bettors.

Volatility in Crypto Markets

Betting with tokens like WGR is still a highly speculative business, because of the volatility. Your betting profits also depend heavily on the price of this token, which must be later sold on crypto exchanges.

Too complex and still early

Let’s be honest here… most sports bettors just want to bet and don’t want to deal with tokens, cryptocurrencies, exchanges, understanding the wallets, blockchain, smart contracts, etc… The focus is currently somewhere else.


The intention and the idea of this type of crypto sports betting are perfect for every single sports bettor. It is not controlled by shady sportsbooks, it fully anonymous, the best odds available, betting without a middleman,… but the reality is that we are still early.

At this moment most sports bettors don’t see any benefit in betting on such crypto sportsbooks and there is still a long way to go before we will all accept such types of sports betting and gambling. No matter how good the whole thing looks in a theory, it is still not perfect at this moment. Even those sports bettors who are familiar with betting with bitcoins, rather bet with crypto on well-established leading bitcoin betting sites.

It’s still early…

But I am believer, that once in the near future this could become a standard for sports betting. The future has never looked brighter for the sports betting industry, for blockchain and bitcoin-related betting. Young generations of sports bettors are growing up with technology, esports betting, cryptocurrencies,… and they will be the first who will massively start betting on sports with crypto.

If decentralized Crypto Sports Betting Bookmakers are massively adopted in the future, this will shake the whole betting industry and the winners will be bettors like you and me. We will see.


This is the recap of my MLB bet prediction results for 2020 and a quick overview of my betting strategy in this strange season, where many baseball handicappers had a tough time.

2020 Season – MLB Bet Prediction Results

  • Record: 63-47-6, +15.20 Units (download here)
  • Average Play: 1.36 Units
  • Yield (ROI): +10.14%
  • Betting Strategy: Sports Betting Analytics and My Private Betting Model (Learn More)

mlb betting season and bet prediction results 2020

Baseball Handicappers adjusting in 2020

The start of 2020 was pretty tough for sports handicappers all around the World. No leagues, no sport, and we didn’t even know if we will see any league because Covid hit the World. I was hoping, that MLB baseball will start soon, but soon I realized that it will not start in March or in April. This is why I decided to spend this extra time to research eSports betting and focused on building a sports betting model for CSGO.

Baseball season usually starts in late March and many baseball handicappers start preparing for the betting season already in February. But 2020 was different and baseball betting strategies had to be adjusted.

Selecting bet prediction was different for MLB cappers?

First of all, baseball has 2430 regular-season games, which is the most among all major leagues. This gives us a lot of opportunities during the season (from 10-15 games every day) and what I liked about it is that I could wait the first 3 weeks to collect first baseball stats and then I still had a large number of games for betting. But this season started on July 24th which was 4 months later. There were a couple of things baseball cappers had to pay attention to:

  • Later start, the huge gap between two seasons and we didn’t know in which shape players start the season
  • Some new rules, like DH for NL teams, an extra runner in extra innings,…
  • Shorter season
  • Covid-19 situation and any player can be scratched from the lineup on a game day
  • Possible cancellation of baseball games because of virus

And this is something all MLB pro sports bettors took into account and then had to pay attention to daily changes and updates. 

My adjusted baseball betting strategy

More selective baseball betting strategy

The key decision was to be a little bit more selective (adjk 1.80 or more) and a little bit more careful with baseball bets in 2020. So I looked back at my MLB betting season 2019. I made +12.50 units in 2019 but what I also did in that season was tracking my betting results in a spreadsheet. I was tracking different units and how they perform against the closing lines. The units are all selected based on the proven MLB betting model, that I use (with the updates of course) for the last couple of years. So it is one established betting system or betting algorithm that is based on bet analytics and not just guessing. Because I had all this info in my betting spreadsheets I had a chance to see, that the value bets with bigger adjusted kelly criterium, which I use for selecting the stakes, had little but better CLV results, then the rest. In other words, if I select only the “best MLB bets”, I beat the line more often.

mlb betting spreadsheet tracking

Early season wagers

The second decision I was making was to bet a little bit earlier into the season. Usually, I wait until 3 weeks into the season and then start with placing wagers. This was not a really good decision, because in the first games I didn’t make a profit and this was also the main reason why my closing line value numbers were not that good. Later into the season CLV numbers and the profit raised.

Sports betting analytics adjusted

Because I was betting a little bit earlier I also had to adjust bet statistics and later update the spreadsheet. In my MLB betting spreadsheet, I have created a so-called odds converter that turns the estimated percentage to moneyline. It is based on historical stats, lineups, players stats in a combination with different matchups.

Results and MLB Bet Types

My average play was 1.36 units per play and I made +15.20 units of profit with the yield of +10.14% (some call it ROI. You can read the difference here). Dime bettors made more than +$15k in less than 3 months (first bet was made on 23.7.2020 and the last was made on 14.10.2020).

  • $100 bettors made $1,520 of profit
  • $1000 bettors made $15,200 of profit

MLB Trends and underdog betting in baseball

Only 32.14% of all bets I was placing were underdog bets. One of the reasons why less MLB underdog bets is that I use adjusted kelly criterium and the second because I simply look for value bets. I don’t bet only underdogs, because the only logical bet is of course a value bet. And this is the difference between my estimated percentages and implied percentages from bookmakers. Underdog betting is not profitable in the last years (5200-7667, ROI -5.4%), but of course, that doesn’t mean that it will be the same in 2021.

In most cases, baseball handicappers give too much weight to the trends or they use them just to write an analysis. I don’t use MLB trends in my mlb betting model, because if some pitcher went 6-1 on a sunny day that doesn’t mean anything. And this definitely doesn’t mean, that he will go 7-1 after 8 games. Trends will tell us what happened, not what will happen. And this is most of the time wrongly interpreted from baseball cappers.

It was another profitable mlb betting season for me and I hope you did it well too.


MLB betting model is part of Sports Betting Model Course.