Hello all, I hope you had a great weekend, the weather was awesome here in Quebec City!

We kick off the week with 2 value bets, including one I like a lot. Let’s see if it agrees with your own analyses, as usual I did my best to bring some insight to you. Here are the day’s projections:

BRUINS-LEAFS (Pinnacle -117 vs +106, Prof MJ -105 vs +105)
SABRES-WINGS (Pinnacle +144 vs -160, Prof MJ +123 vs -123)
COYOTES-PREDATORS (Pinnacle +222 vs -250, Prof MJ +233 vs -233)
SHARKS-STARS (Pinnacle -140 vs +127, Prof MJ -150 vs +150)
KINGS-OILERS (Pinnacle +115 vs -127, Prof MJ +160 vs -160)

I especially like Edmonton -127 (decimal 1.79) against Los Angeles. The Oilers have the better record. They have won 3 straight. And the Kings are playing a second game in as many nights. What’s not to like? Now, how has the season series been? The Kings won 4-2 at home, while McDavid’s squad got revenge 3-1 at home. It’s worth mentioning that Los Angeles had beaten Edmonton on 6 straight occasions prior to that 3-1 game last December. Cam Talbot has now started the last 11 Oilers’ games, but I’m hopeful he will be the starter again since the Oilers are looking at back-to-back games next Wednesday and Thursday (Brossoit should get the call in one of those).

I’m switching to an underdog: I recommend betting Buffalo +144 (decimal 2.44) in Detroit. Both teams have several injured players, but none that has a great impact, except Kyle Okposo for Buffalo (their third-highest scorer). The Sabres are 2-0-1 against the Wings this year, including a 4-3 regulation win in Detroit on December 27. Buffalo went on a 3-game winning streak, but have dropped 10 of their last 13 games. As for Detroit, they lost 4 straight before winning 3 of their last 5 contests. They haven’t faced tough opponents recently, as they played Colorado twice, and Arizona (the two worst teams in the NHL).

I would like to end this report by suggesting to bet the Sharks in Dallas if the line moves to -133 (decimal 1.75) or higher during the day.

Have a good Monday!

Professor MJ

Hello everyone, it’s good to be back for more NBA projections on this great Monday morning! At this time of writing, tonight’s 7 games are currently offering a 3-star bet, as well as a 1-star bet. You will find all the details below:

HAWKS-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 5.5, Prof MJ = Hornets by 5.7)
76ERS-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Magic by 5, Prof MJ = Magic by 4.8)
JAZZ-PACERS (Pinnacle = Jazz by 2.5, Prof MJ = Jazz by 0.6)
WIZARDS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 2, Prof MJ = Celtics by 1.3)
NUGGETS-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 9, Prof MJ = Rockets by 8.3)
WARRIORS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = Warriors by 1.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 2.7)
KNICKS-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 11, Prof MJ = Clippers by 11)

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

My first pick of the week goes to the Pacers +2.5 against the Jazz. Both Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors are question marks heading into this matchup (both struggling with knee injuries). Utah has dropped two games in a row (3 of their past 5). In the only previous meeting this season, the Jazz won 109-100 on their home court. As a matter of fact, they have beaten Indiana 3 straight times, but had lost 6 of 7 prior to that run. The Pacers have looked totally different at home (24-10) versus on the road (11-24). They are 4-11 when playing the second of back-to-back games this year, but notice they benefited from 3 full days of rest before yesterday’s game (so I’m hoping they still have a lot of energy!).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m going with Golden State -1.5 in Oklahoma City. The Warriors have easily won all 3 games against the Thunder in 2016-2017: by 26 and 21-point margins at home, and by a 16-point margin on the road. Following the injury to Kevin Durant, Golden State went 2-5 but they are now riding a 3-game winning streak. The Thunder is a streaky team: they won 4 straight games, followed by a 4-game skid, which was followed by the current 5-game winning streak. The Warriors have beaten OKC six consecutive times (including playoff games). The crowd won’t be as hostile with Durant on the sidelines (though I’m sure they will still be pumped up!). After sitting out a game in San Antonio, Stephen Curry is slowly gaining his MVP form back as the team.

Thank you for reading this report and enjoy the games!

Professor MJ

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

I am providing some projections on tomorrow’s games. Try to grab some early lines if possible. I’ve got 4 profitable bets for you, and there are 2 games where the line is off the board (I wrote this report Friday around 3-4pm) so I will give you some guidelines as to how to proceed when they come up. Enjoy the read!

AVALANCHE-WINS (Pinnacle +162 vs -180, Prof MJ +137 vs -137)
JACKETS-ISLANDERS (Pinnacle -120 vs +109, Prof MJ -138 vs +138)
RANGERS-WILD (Pinnacle off the board, Prof MJ +150 vs -150)
HAWKS-LEAFS (Pinnacle -111 vs +101, Prof MJ -124 vs +124)
CANADIENS-SENATORS (Pinnacle -109 vs -101, Prof MJ +115 vs -115)
CAPITALS-LIGHTNING (Pinnacle -128 vs +116, Prof MJ -128 vs +128)
PREDATORS-HURRICANES (Pinnacle -106 vs -104, Prof MJ -114 vs +114)
BLUES-COYOTES (Pinnacle -140 vs +127, Prof MJ -130 vs +130)
CANUCKS-OILERS (Pinnacle +218 vs -245, Prof MJ +208 vs -208)
DUCKS-SHARKS (Pinnacle off the board, Prof MJ +194 vs -194)

I picked Colorado to beat Detroit 3 days ago. I’m at it again, as I advise to take the Avalanche at +162 (decimal 2.62) in Detroit. I can’t believe the line is that high! I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes down to around +150 tomorrow. Calvin Pickard has already been confirmed as the Avs’ starting goalie, which is good. Today I found a very interesting article that presents the home team’s win probability depending on whether the home or road team benefited from 1-2-3 more day(s)’ rest than its opponent. For example, they claim the home team wins 55% of games overall. Now, when the road team has had 1 more day to rest, the home team wins 53% of the time. In other words, they “gain” an additional 2%. I took that into account here, and I will use this report’s numbers in the future (I’d like to double-check in the near future with my own dataset which contains 9 full NHL seasons of data). The Avalanche has won 3 of its last 5 games, while Detroit has only won 2 of their last 8 matches. I also like the fact that Colorado has won the last 3 meetings in Detroit (all in extra time, but it still shows they are not intimidated there).

I’m also taking Ottawa -101 (decimal 1.99) at home against the Habs. In injury news, Radulov and Emelin are battling the flu and their status is uncertain (at least one of them will probably play). For Ottawa, they will be missing their second-leading scorer Mark Stone because of a leg injury. Price has been named the starter, we don’t know yet whether Condon or Anderson will defend the Sens’ cage. Both teams have won 7 of their last 10 games. Ottawa won 6 straight before dropping the last two games (2-1 in overtime against Tampa and 2-1 against Chicago, so nothing to be ashamed of). The Sens have won both meetings by a 4-3 score so far this year.

The next pick goes to Columbus -120 (decimal 1.83) on the road against the Islanders. Sergei Bobrovsky is likely to be the starter since the team might prefer to put Korpisalo in net against the lowly Devils the next day. The home team has won all 3 meetings this season, so I’m hoping the trend ends: the Jackets won 7-0 and 6-2 at home, but lost 4-2 in New York. I’m also a bit worried about the Isles winning 6 of the past 8 matchups, but the odds offer too much value to pass.

Finally, I’m going with Chicago -111 (decimal 1.90) in Toronto. Claiming that the Hawks are on fire would be an understatement: they have won 15 of their last 18 games! Unfortunately for them they lost Artem Anisimov to an injury three days ago against Montreal. He will be out Saturday night. Chicago is on a 4-game winning streak against the Leafs (dating back to December 2014).

Some guidelines regarding the two games whose lines are off the board at this time of writing (Friday afternoon):

– Bet the Rangers if the line is +164 (decimal 2.64) or higher, bet the Wild if the line is -132 (decimal 1.76) or higher.

– Bet the Ducks if the line is +310 (decimal 2.10) or higher, bet the Sharks if the line is -166 (decimal 1.60) or higher.

Enjoy your Saturday!!

Professor MJ

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

After taking Thursday off on my NHL projections because I had to take care of some things I had been putting away for a while, I’m back for tonight’s four games. I have two value bets for you:

PANTHERS-RANGERS (Pinnacle +158 vs -175, Prof MJ +181 vs -181)
DEVILS-PENGUINS (Pinnacle +227 vs -255, Prof MJ +207 vs -207)
STARS-FLAMES (Pinnacle +182 vs -203, Prof MJ +239 vs -239)
SABRES-DUCKS (Pinnacle +188 vs -210, Prof MJ +218 vs -218)

I recommend taking a shot on the Devils at +227 (decimal 3.27) in Pittsburgh. At first, my projections were in line with the odds, but then the news came that Evgeni Malkin was going to miss the game and the line hasn’t moved! I updated each team’s win probability and it turns out New Jersey is now a profitable bet. Needless to say Pittsburgh has been plagued by a rash of injuries: Hagelin, Letang, Hornqvist, Daley, Maatta and more recently Ron Hainsey who will be out at least a week. The Penguins kept playing at a high level despite the injuries, but they have now lost 2 straight. Of course they are still more likely to win than the Devils, but with such odds I’m willing to gamble. You should also be aware that New Jersey is playing a second game in as many nights. Pittsburgh has beaten the Devils all three times this season (including two at home: 4-1 and 4-3 in extra time).

I’m going in a totally opposite direction by picking a heavy favorite: I like the Flames at -203 (decimal 1.49) versus Dallas. The Stars played last night and won 4-2 in Vancouver, but they might have lost their star player Jamie Benn. His status for tonight is unknown. Niemi is likely to be the starter with Lehtonen playing yesterday, which isn’t good news for Stars’ fans. Meanwhile, Brian Elliott has been confirmed as the starter for Calgary. His numbers over the past 9 games are jaw-dropping: 9 wins, 1.74 GAA and a 94.3% save percentage. Prior to last night’s win, the Stars went through a difficult three game stretch where they lost all of those games by a combined 17-4 score. Ouch. Let’s see if the Flames can rebound after seeing their 10-game winning streak snapped two days ago against Boston.

Good luck on your bets!!

Professor MJ

Good Friday everyone! Out of 8 games, I have two recommended bets: one is rated 4 stars, while the other is a 1-star bet. Let’s see the details!

MAVS-76ERS (Pinnacle = Mavs by 4.5, Prof MJ = Mavs by 4.5)
BULLS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 7.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 10.3)
CELTICS-NETS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 8, Prof MJ = Celtics by 7.5)
RAPTORS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 3.5, Prof MJ = Pistons by 3.8)
ROCKETS-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 5.7)
TIMBERWOLVES-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 4.5, Prof MJ = Heat by 5.7)
MAGIC-SUNS (Pinnacle = Suns by 3, Prof MJ = Suns by 2.4)
BUCKS-LAKERS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 7, Prof MJ = Bucks by 6.7)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

My first pick goes to Washington -7.5 against Chicago. The Bulls received a tough blow: Dwayne Wade is out for the season with a fractured elbow. On the Wizards’ side, one of their stars has injury concerns too, but things are not nearly as bad: John Wall said he has a 50-50 chance of playing tonight because of a foot injury. Washington has won 2 of the 3 meetings this year: they lost 106-95 in Chicago back in November, won 107-97 in Chicago and won 101-99 at home. In fact, Washington has beaten Chicago 6 times out of the last 9 matchups. The Wizards went on a 22-5 stretch, but have now lost their past two games (in Minnesota and at home against Dallas). I can’t imagine them taking this game lightly. Meanwhile, the Bulls’ mindset might be affected from the loss of Wade for the rest of the year. They have won only 2 of their past 9 games.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m going with Miami -4.5 versus the Timberwolves. Minnesota’s defense has improved vastly of late, but the loss of Nemanja Bjelica might hurt. It must be noted that the Timberwolves have gone 4-3 in the last 7 games against great teams: Utah, San Antonio, LA Clippers, Golden State, Milwaukee, Washington and Boston. Pretty impressive! However, the Heat has been even more impressive. The team went on a bad 4-18 stretch, and then things changed drastically on January 17. They have gone 22-5 since then. What’s strange is all 5 losses were against average teams at best: Philadelphia, Dallas, Indiana and Orlando twice. In the only previous matchup this season, Miami took it 115-113 in Minnesota.

Here are a couple of games to keep track of:

– Bet the Magic if the line moves to +3.5 in Phoenix. They are playing the second leg of back-to-back games, but they got two days’ rest prior to that. Also, the injury bug is hitting the Suns: their second-highest scorer Eric Bledsoe is out, their fourth-highest scorer Brandon Knight is doubtful and Tyson Chandler (their best center) is being benched quite often.

– I would also pick the Rockets if the line moves to -4.5 in New Orleans.

Have a good weekend!

Professor MJ

Hello everyone, Professor MJ back for my daily NBA projections! There are 6 games in the NBA tonight. It has been a while since I last had a 5-star bet (the last one came on March 8th with the Raptors +2 in New Orleans), but we have one today! My record on 3+ stars has gone down to 14-9-1 due to a 3-game losing streak. I hope to snap the skid tonight!

JAZZ-CAVS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 7, Prof MJ = Cavs by 6.6)
THUNDER-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 2.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 3.2)
NETS-KNICKS (Pinnacle = Knicks by 4, Prof MJ = Knicks by 7.0)
GRIZZLIES-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 3.5, Prof MJ = Hawks by 4.9)
CLIPPERS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Nuggets by 4, Prof MJ = Nuggets by 4.0)
MAGIC-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 13.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 13.6)

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m going with New York -4 versus Brooklyn. Lots of key injuries to report. On the Nets’ side, Sean Kilpatrick and Joe Harris have officially been ruled out. As for Jeremy Lin, he is expected to play. He rolled an ankle during his last game two days ago and briefly left the game, but he came back to finish it. He also participated in yesterday’s practice, so it looks like he’s ready to go (not sure if he’s going to be affected by the injury though). The Knicks will be missing two players: Joakim Noah (who has been out for a while now) and Kristaps Porzingis (not officially out yet, but very unlikely to play). Overall all of those injuries are more detrimental to New York, and that has been taken into account when making the projections. Brooklyn has shown clear signs of improvement with 3 wins in their last 8 games, including a 120-112 victory over the Knicks four days ago in Brooklyn. The two previous meetings both went in the Knicks’ favor: 95-90 in Brooklyn and 110-96 in New York. As a matter of fact, the Knicks have won the last 3 home matchups versus the Nets.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’ll go with Atlanta -3.5 against the Grizzlies. The rest factor is definitely in favor of the Hawks: they benefited from two days’ rest, while Memphis was playing last night (it will also be their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days). Chandler Parsons may be out for the season for Memphis. The Hawks just beat them 107-90 on the road. The last meeting in Atlanta occurred almost exactly one year ago, where the Hawks won 95-83. They are 5-4 over their last 9 games, but look at the teams that beat them: San Antonio, Golden State, Cleveland and Indiana. All great/good teams! As for Memphis, they went on an ugly 5-game skid, but managed to win their last two games.

Thanks a lot for reading!

Professor MJ

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

Today I have 2 profitable bets for you, one of which I’m pretty upset that I didn’t make my projections earlier because we missed on great value. Let’s dive into the details right away:

PENGUINS-FLYERS (Pinnacle -133 vs +120, Prof MJ -145 vs +145)
BRUINS-FLAMES (Pinnacle -105 vs -105, Prof MJ +122 vs -122)
WINGS-AVALANCHE (Pinnacle -130 vs +118, Prof MJ +102 vs -102)
BLUES-DUCKS (Pinnacle +118 vs -130, Prof MJ +127 vs -127)

First, I suggest taking the Avalanche at +118 (decimal 2.18) versus Detroit. Man did we miss on great value, as the line opened at +144. It went down to around +130 earlier this morning and now +118. With my projections having the Avalanche a 50/50 proposition to win the game, I still recommend taking them but it’s a bittersweet feeling. Calvin Pickard has been confirmed as Colorado’s starter tonight. He has won 12 of his 37 starts for a 32.4% win percentage, which is 4% higher than the team’s 27.9% overall win percentage. Strangely enough, the road team has won the last 7 meetings (Detroit has won the last 4 in Colorado), so I’m hoping the trends are not representative of tonight’s matchup. The Wings have only won a single game out of their last 6. As for Colorado, they went on a 2-game winning streak before losing the next two. At this time of writing, 71% of the bets have gone on Detroit, and yet the line moved heavily in favor of Colorado. Do we smell sharp money backing up the Avalanche?

What an interesting matchup: two very hot teams face each other at the Scotiabank Saddledome as the Flames host the Bruins. My pick goes to the Flames at -105 (decimal 1.95) against Boston. On one side, you have Boston who has won 11 of their 14 games since firing Claude Julien. On the other, you’ve got Calgary who is riding a team-record 10-game winning streak. Anton Khudobin has been named the starter for Boston. Here are some interesting numbers: Rask has won 33 of 55 starts which corresponds to a 60% win percentage, versus 4/14 = 28.6% for the other 3 goalies. That’s very bad news for the Bruins. I’m glad Rask isn’t starting because he has a 4-0-3 record (including 2 shutouts) against Calgary! Between the years 2010 to 2013, the Bruins went on a 5-game winning streak against Calgary. Since then, the Flames have beaten Boston on 4 occasions out of 5 matchups.

Good luck on your plays!!

Professor MJ

Hello everyone, this is Professor MJ!

Today I’ve got a 4-star bet for you, along with three 1-star bets. Should you trust the last three picks? Who knows? As usual you are the final decision-maker; I am only here to provide as much additional insight as I can. The projections on all games (except Lakers-Rockets because I hate games where the spread is huge) are shown below:

MAVS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 7, Prof MJ = Wizards by 9.2)
HORNETS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 3, Prof MJ = Pacers by 2.2)
TIMBERWOLVES-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 6, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.9)
PELICANS-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 6.5, Prof MJ = Heat by 5.5)
JAZZ-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Jazz by 2.5, Prof MJ = Jazz by 3.1)
GRIZZLIES-BULLS (Pinnacle = Grizzlies by 2.5, Prof MJ = Grizzlies by 2.4)
BLAZERS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 11.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 12.8)
KINGS-SUNS (Pinnacle = Suns by 5.5, Prof MJ = Suns by 5.2)
BUCKS-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 7.5, Prof MJ = Clippers by 6.4)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend betting the Wizards -7 versus Dallas. The Mavs second-highest scorer, Wesley Matthews, will be a game-time decision because of a calf injury. This morning he said “You guys will never know how much pain I’m in”. If I’m a Mavericks fan, I don’t like the sound of it. Even though he will be playing tonight, it looks like he won’t be near 100%. The Mavs went on a nice 7-game stretch where they won 6 of them. However, the followed that up by losing at home to the lowly Suns and losing decisively 100-78 in Toronto against a minus-Lowry Raptors team. To me, that’s a red flag that they might be headed in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the Wizards had won 7 of their last 8 games before dropping their last game in Minnesota. They are a much superior team than Dallas and I expect them to rebound tonight. The only thing I don’t like about this matchup is Dallas beating the Wizards in 9 of the last 10 meetings.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

For a second straight game, I’m going with the Pelicans +6.5 in Miami. New Orleans is playing the second of back-to-back games, but they benefited from two days’ rest before that so it’s not as bad. As I said yesterday, the Pelicans are finally showing signs of a team that’s jelling since the acquisition of Cousins. They have won 4 of their last 7 games and if you take a closer look at their losses, they weren’t bad at all: 94-87 versus Toronto, 88-83 in Utah and 101-98 in overtime against a great Spurs team. So basically over the last 7 games their worst outing was a 7-point loss. The Heat had won 8 of 10 before dropping their last match in Indiana. Miami won 6 of the last 7 home games against New Orleans, but the last two games weren’t bad performances by the Pelicans: a loss in overtime, and a 105-91 win.

I like the Spurs -11.5 versus the Blazers. Wow, you don’t get to see me pick such a big favorite very often, but it’s the case tonight. There are two main reasons: 1) the Spurs’ second-highest scorer, LaMarcus Aldridge, won’t have any restrictions tonight after undergoing some testing of his heart; 2) the Blazers will be dog-tired, and it’s not good news whenever you are playing such a great team like the Spurs. Not only is it a second game in as many nights for Portland, but tonight’s game will be their 4th in 5 days!!! You don’t see that very often in the NBA. San Antonio has won 11 of their last 12 games overall, and has also beaten Portland in the last 5 meetings.

It seems like these days I’m always involved in the Milwaukee Bucks’ games, either betting on them or against them. Tonight I’m picking the Bucks +7.5 at the Clippers. Both teams faced each other 12 days ago, where Milwaukee took it 112-101 at home. The Bucks saw their 6-game winning streak snapped two days ago in Memphis. The Clippers are also coming off a loss after getting some success (they had won 4 of 5). Khris Middleton is slowly finding his groove back after missing the first 3 months of the season, and it has shown some results in the wins column for Milwaukee.

Cheers!

Professor MJ