Professor MJ: 2 NHL Picks for Friday November 24!

Hello hockey fans, today I’m announcing a major change to my NHL picks. As a matter of fact, I’m going to give them a whole new orientation and I hope you’ll enjoy the new approach.

I have decided to stop doing the write-ups, and instead focus on the development and the tracking of specific NHL betting strategies. I have access to data on 9 full NHL seasons (2007/2008 to 2015/2016). I have written down a list of potential winning strategies that I intend to investigate and I will share the results with you.

I have already completed the analysis of the following angle that I call “The NHL Streak Breaker Play”:

Considering the public’s tendency to overreact to recent results, should we bet on NHL teams which are currently on a losing streak facing a team riding a winning streak?

The answer is “yes” under some specific conditions. The research itself is done, but writing and structuring the article which unveils the details is not. The likelihood of posting this report within a week is very high.

Meanwhile, there are two games tonight that meet the criteria for betting according to this strategy so I wanted to let you know about them:

PICK #1: Detroit Red Wings +149 (decimal 2.49) at New York Rangers

PICK #2: Ottawa Senators +165 (decimal 2.65) at Columbus Blue Jackets

It’s important to note that I’ll keep track of the performance of “The NHL Streak Breaker Play”. The money lines stated above were taken from Pinnacle around 10am Eastern Time.

Not only are we going to monitor the morning lines, but also the closing lines. Why? This strategy will recommend fading the public the vast majority of the time (i.e. going against the grain). Therefore, I suspect that most of the time the money line will go up as the day progresses so it might be preferable to wait until we get closer to puck drop before placing your wagers. But as a statistician I always prefer to obtain data rather than going with my “gut feeling”.

So it will be interesting to see if the line does indeed tend to go in our favor from the morning until the start of the game. We’ll then have statistical evidence of whether we should place our bets early or not.

I will let you know as soon as the article is live. If you have ideas of potential strategies that you would like me to explore, don’t hesitate to email me (

Thanks a lot for following my work, I hope to provide as much value as I can!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #12!

Hello savvy sports investors, how’s it going? We are coming off a disappointing week where we got one correct pick and two that were wrong. Our season record is now 24-15-2, a 61.5% success rate.

I’ve got 4 picks for you this week, and I do feel good about them.

PICK #1: San Francisco 49ers +7 vs Seattle Seahawks

If you believe the fatigue factor is important when handicapping NFL games, then this one is for you. Rest is definitely in favor of the 49ers here. Not only are they coming off their bye week, but the Seahawks played Monday night, thus losing one day of preparation. To top it all off, San Francisco will be at home for a fourth consecutive week after hosting the Cards and the Giants and being on a bye. That is seldom seen in the NFL, especially combined with the 8 extra days of preparation over what Seattle has.

One more thing I like about this pick is the fact that the Seahawks might overlook this game a little bit, as it is being sandwiched between a key matchup with the Falcons last week, and a tough challenge against the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles next week. The only factor I don’t like about this game is how the Seahawks might be mad and motivated following a home loss on primetime television.

The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 12-9 loss earlier this year against those same Seahawks in Seattle. Paul Richardson caught a 9-yard TD pass with 7 minutes remaining to put the Seahawks up for good, but they definitely had trouble handling the Niners. Seattle swept the season series last year, but they struggled in San Francisco in a 25-23 win, a game where they trailed 14-3 early on. The Seahawks made a comeback before pulling some starters in the fourth quarter because it was the last game of the season and it turned out to be meaningless for them.

I could see the Seahawks crumbling through the rest of the season and missing the playoffs. Their defense is banged up, their running game is average at best, and Russell Wilson has been running for his life on many occasions. Thank God he is great at escaping the pressure and extending plays, otherwise they would be doomed with such a mediocre offensive line. I don’t believe they will win by more than one touchdown on the road.

PICK #2: New York Jets +5 vs Carolina Panthers

Both teams are in similar conditions with respect to the rest factor. They are both coming off their bye week and neither team has had to travel much recently. As a matter of fact, prior to having the week off, the Panthers had played a couple of home games in a row, while the Jets had played two out of three games at home.

I’m afraid the Panthers won’t show up in top form this week. First, their last game was a cakewalk when they handled the Dolphins easily by a 45-21 score. Also, they might get caught peeking ahead to their upcoming showdown in New Orleans on week #13.

The cold weather might come into play as well. At the time of this writing (Tuesday November 21), it is expected that it will feel like one degree Celcius or 34 degrees Farenheit next Sunday. That could go in favor of the Jets, who are more used to that kind of weather, especially quarterback Josh McCown who has played a few seasons with cold-weather teams like the Browns and the Bears.

The Jets have been tough to beat at MetLife Stadium this year. They are 3-2, with their only two losses occurring against the Patriots by a 7-point margin and the Falcons by a 5-point deficit, so basically nothing to be ashamed of. Granted, the Panthers are 4-1 on the road, but keep in mind they have lost 17-3 at Chicago.

PICK #3: Chicago Bears +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

Most bookies currently have the Bears as 13.5-point underdogs, but Bovada has set the line at 14 (as of Tuesday November 21). More sportsbooks might follow them considering the public is betting heavily on the Eagles following their impressive win in Dallas that pretty much locked the division title for them. 80% of gamblers are taking the Eagles, both against the spread and straight up. That’s what generally happens when you have a team riding an eight-game winning streak against a team who is on a 3-game losing skid.

Like I said earlier, the Eagles are almost guaranteed to win the NFC East and are coming off a big emotional showdown in Dallas. A letdown is certainly conceivable, especially considering they have the Seahawks up next. It would be very easy to look past a much weaker Bears team. Philadelphia’s past three games have been too easy: the average margin of victory was 26.3. This looks like a textbook trap game for the Eagles.

The Bears should not feel too tired since their past two matches were at home, and they were on a bye before that. They certainly have nothing to lose and will be looking for revenge following a 29-14 home loss to Philadelphia last year.

You might be surprised to hear that the Bears have had many good performances against top teams this season. They lost 23-17 to the Falcons in their opener and were just 5 yards away from pulling the big upset. They beat the Steelers in overtime. They only lost by 3 points against the Vikings. They beat a solid Panthers team by two touchdowns. And they only lost 20-12 in New Orleans. That’s five good outings when facing teams from the upper tier. Combined with the likely letdown by the Eagles, I like the Bears to cover the 14-point spread.

PICK #4: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs New Orleans Saints

The winning streak is still alive for the Saints, but they certainly showed some signs of weakness last week when they had to overcome a 15-point deficit late in the 4th quarter to defeat the Redskins in overtime. Their defense looked stingy in their previous four starts by allowing just 12 points per game on average. However, look who they faced in those games: Buffalo, Tampa Bay minus Winston, Chicago and Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers. There is not a single scary offense among those teams. They finally played against a potent offense last week, and they ended up allowing 456 total yards and 31 points to Washington.

The Rams did not look so great either in a 24-7 loss to Minnesota. They will be looking to go back on the winning track right away, and will hope to avenge an embarrassing 49-21 loss in New Orleans last season. They are ready to show Drew Brees’ squad that they are not the same team that they saw in 2016. Jared Goff has significantly improved his play, the cast of players surrounding him is much better, and I do like what new and young head coach Sean McVay has done with this team.

I doubt that the Saints will be overlooking such a strong Rams team, but they might still be a little bit distracted by their critical meeting with divisional rivals Carolina Panthers next week.

Ok so this is it for this week’s NFL write-up, I hope I was able to bring some valuable insight to you. If you appreciate the work that I do for free, remember that you can always help me by clicking the affiliate links in my sportsbook reviews the next time you want to open an account with a new bookmaker.

Thanks for reading this report, I appreciate you, best of luck on the 49ers, the Jets, the Bears and the Rams picks, and I’ll be back next week for more predictions and analyses in the NFL. Bye bye!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: 4 NBA Picks for Wednesday November 15!

Busy night in the NBA with 11 games on the menu; I’ve got 4 value plays for you, and a slight lean on a specific team. Let’s dive right in!

PICK #1: Sacramento Kings +4.5 at Atlanta Hawks (rated 4 stars)

Before the season began, Vegas’ lines implied that the Kings would finish the year with a .341 record compared to .311 for Atlanta. Based on each team’s start to the season, do we have STRONG indication that those numbers were wrong? My personal answer is “no” (though some people may want to argue with that).

Sacramento is 3-10, while Atlanta is 2-12. Both teams have played many more games on the road than at home. Some may argue that the Kings have done worse against the spread (ATS) by going 4-8, versus 6-7 for the Hawks. To me, the numbers are not strong enough to make me deviate from the initial win percentage projections.

So the Kings might be a slightly stronger team, and you’ve got Atlanta that will be a little more tired tonight since they will be playing a fourth game in six nights. And from an injury standpoint, the Hawks are slightly more banged up too (Muscala is doubtful to play and Ilyasova should be back but on a limited basis, while Vince Carter doesn’t have an important role as shown by his 2.6 points per game average and his 12.0 minutes per game).

If you add that all up, my statistical models are claiming the Hawks should be 0.8-point favorites. With a spread of 4.5, I’m definitely taking the Kings. I am basically challenging a 2-12 team to win by 5 points or more. I would even be tempted to buy a half point to force them to win by 6 points or more in order for my bet to lose.

PICK #2: Charlotte Hornets +2.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (rated 3 stars)

At the time of this writing, most bookies have a line of 2, but Bovada and Sports Interaction are still posting 2.5 (the latter even has Charlotte +2.5 at -105, which is great!).

The status of Derrick Rose seems unclear at the moment, but the team said that he will be back when feeling 100% so I feel like he is more likely to wait at least one more game. Meanwhile, the Hornets will welcome Nicolas Batum back, who will make his season debut. He was their second-leading scorer last season, but he should get limited minutes in his first start. That might still be a good emotional lift for a team that is going through a four-game losing skid (all four on the road at San Antonio, Minnesota, New York and Boston).

The Cavs will be playing a fourth road game in a row. I’m a bit worried about the fact that Cleveland has defeated the Hornets on the previous six meetings (5-0-1 ATS in those games).

The rest factor plays in favor of Charlotte since they got four complete days off since returning from their most recent four-game road trip. Their legs should be fresh tonight!

PICK #3: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves (rated 2 stars)

My main concern is the Spurs coming off a couple of games against weak opponents (Chicago and Dallas).

However, San Antonio has beaten the T-Wolves on 14 consecutive occasions. They are feeling comfortable playing in Minnesota; not only have they won their previous six trips over there, but they have beaten the spread every single time (6-0).

I have penalized the Spurs for playing the second of back-to-back games by multiplying their estimated win percentage by 0.84. It went from 44% to 37% following this adjustment, which corresponds to a 4.1 spread. Since the line is 5.5 and they have owned the Timberwolves, I’m backing the Spurs.

PICK #4: Portland Trail Blazers -5 vs Orlando Magic (rated 1 star)

This matchup features a team playing a fourth consecutive road game against a well-rested team that has been hosting their last six matches (that’s right, 6!!). That’s a big advantage.

The Magic might letdown a little bit after playing the top team in the league, the Golden State Warriors. After storming out of the gate with a 6-2 record, they have now gone 2-4 since then (which was to be expected considering they were projected to finish the season with a .402 record). They are starting to drop more and more in the standings.

Orlando is going to play a fourth game in six nights.

LEAN (unofficial pick): New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs Toronto Raptors

My projected lines are in according with the spread, but I’m tempted to bet the Pelicans for a few reasons. First, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raptors letdown following a big road win in Houston last night. Secondly, Toronto is playing a third straight road game, while New Orleans will be at home for a third consecutive time. The Pelicans will be looking to avenge a 122-118 loss in Toronto six days ago. However, the team from Canada has defeated the Pelicans on the past five meetings (going 3-2 ATS in those games).

Good luck on your plays and have a great evening!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #11!

Hello my friends, it’s good talking to you again, this is Professor MJ from Quebec City!

Our picks went 2-2 last week, so overall this season our record is 23-13-2, which corresponds to a 64% success rate. This week I’ve got 3 picks for you; let’s rock and roll!

PICK #1: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 vs Atlanta Falcons

At the time of this writing (Tuesday November 14), the line is either 2.5 or 3, depending on your bookie. 5Dimes is one of the sportsbooks that currently has 2.5, so I took it.

I’ve got plenty of reasons to go with Seattle in this one, but let me start with arguments that make me worry a little bit. First, the Seahawks are coming off a very physical game against the Cardinals, a game in which many players went down to injuries, including cornerback Richard Sherman who was lost for the rest of the year. Left tackle Duane Brown, who was just acquired from the Texans, went down in the first half and it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to suit up or not. However, the chances are good that Seattle will welcome free safety Earl Thomas back on the field.

I’m also worried about the recent progression shown by the Falcons. They were off to a very disappointing start to the season, but have shown signs of life over the past 3 games. First, they beat the Jets in New York, then lost 20-17 in a tough environment in Carolina and beat the Cowboys 27 to 7 last week.

Ok, let me now reveal why this pick is interesting from my point of view. You know how much I value the rest factor in the NFL; the Seahawks are benefiting from 3 additional days of rest after playing last Thursday night. Also, they will be looking to avenge a 36-20 road elimination loss in the playoffs last year. Please note that the Seahawks had previously beaten them 26-24 in Seattle.

I also like the fact that Atlanta will need to travel three time zones for this game. I’m aware that it’s not such a big deal when playing Monday night, but it’s still an adjustment for them.

As of now, 64% of spread bets and 75% of money line bets have gone on Atlanta, and yet the line has not moved, so perhaps we’ve got a little more sharp money backing Seattle.

PICK #2: Oakland Raiders +7 vs New England Patriots

I know, it’s always risky to fade the Patriots, but I’ll do it anyway. The Raiders are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had plenty of time to gameplan for this critical matchup. Meanwhile, the Pats are coming off an easy 41-16 win over the Broncos, but maybe that game was too easy and did not provide such a good preparation ahead of this Sunday’s game. This is yet another case where a team from the East travels across the country to play on the West coast.

The betting public is literally pounding New England right now, with 87% of spread bets and 94% of money line bets going on Belichick’s squad. As a consequence, sportsbooks have moved the line from 5.5 to 7. I don’t believe it will go higher, so I recommend grabbing it now.

PICK #3: Minnesota Vikings -2 vs Los Angeles Rams

Who would have thought, prior to the start of the season, that this game would feature a couple of 7-2 teams? What a great matchup in perspective, and for the second week in a row I’m betting on the Vikings. Pinnacle and other bookies currently have a 2.5 spread, but Bovada and Sports Interaction are posting a line of 2.

This time, we’ve got a team that has to travel two time zones from West to East. With the game scheduled to start at 1pm Eastern Time, that’s the equivalent of 10am for people coming from Los Angeles.

My main argument concerns the Rams’ past three contests; they are coming off three easy wins over lousy clubs. On Week #7, they shutout the Cardinals 33-0 as Carson Palmer had to leave the game in the first half. They were on a bye the following week before hammering the Giants 51-17 in New York. Finally, they beat up on the Texans 33-7 last week, but do I need to remind you they were missing their all-star QB DeShaun Watson and perhaps the best defensive player in the league, J.J. Watt? They will face a much stiffer test this week, and I’m afraid they won’t be up to the task.

The Rams are 4-0 on the road this year, while the Vikings are 4-1 at home.

We are observing a small reverse line move on this game, as roughly 60% of the bets have gone on the Rams, while the line still went in favor of the Vikings from 2 to 2.5. I like it.

Thanks a lot for taking the time to read this write-up, I hope you found it insightful and I wish you the best of luck on your sports investments. Cheers everyone!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: 2 NHL Picks for Tuesday November 14!

Hello all, I’ve got two profitable bets out of tonight’s 8 NHL games. I will also briefly mention a couple of leans. Enjoy the read!

PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets -104 (decimal 1.96) at Montreal Canadiens

The Jackets halted a four-game losing streak by defeating the Red Wings 2-1 in a shootout. Meanwhile, the Habs are riding with Charlie Lindgren’s hot hand who has only allowed 5 goals in 4 starts! Sergei Bobrovsky has had Montreal’s number of late, as shown by his 2-0-1 record against the Canadiens last year, stopping 95 of 97 shots. I’m not handicapping totals, but betting the under 5.5 at -110 seems enticing to me.

Over the past five meetings between these two clubs, Montreal has only won once, and that victory occurred in overtime. I’m predicting a 3-1 Jackets win including a goal by Artemi Panarin.

PICK: Dallas Stars +111 (decimal 2.11) at Florida Panthers

The Stars have been alternating wins and losses over their past six games, including the last five where the final score wasn’t even close (at least a 3-goal deficit in each case). They suffered a 5-1 loss at Carolina last night, where the Canes managed to score four goals in the final period. I expect the recent trend to continue with a bounce-back performance against a team that has been struggling mightily of late. As a matter of fact, the Panthers have only won a single game over their past seven contests, with the only win happening against the lowly Sabres.

Kari Lehtonen will be in net for Dallas, but I’m not worried about that considering he’s been posting a better GAA and save percentage than starter Ben Bishop. He has been doing a solid job thus far this year.

The road team has won the past five meetings between these two teams, which is quite surprising! The Stars got the victory on four of their last five visits in Florida.


I’m leaning towards the Capitals at +118 (decimal 2.18) at the Preds. Both teams are coming off a winning streak against tough opposition. Indeed, the Caps have just defeated the Oilers and the Penguins, while the Preds have been even more impressive with wins over Pittsburgh, Columbus, Los Angeles and Anaheim. I expect a very tight game, in which case I’m taking the underdog to pull off the small upset.

I also like the line on the Kings at -165 (decimal 1.61) against the Canucks. Los Angeles will be playing a third straight home game, while Vancouver will be on the road for the fourth consecutive time (more travel = more fatigue). The Canucks have been outscored 9-1 over their past couple of games. The Kings won’t take this game lightly despite facing weaker opposition since they have just lost two home games in a row (to the Sharks and Lightning). They will display an all-out effort to avoid losing a third straight game in front of their fans.

Have a good evening!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: One NBA Pick for Monday November 13!

Hello NBA fans, today I’ve only got one pick rated one star, so nothing to write home about unfortunately. Let’s have a look at the details!

PICK: Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies (rated 1 star)

Don’t you have a feeling these teams are headed for different directions? The Grizzlies stormed out of the gate with a surprising 5-1 start to the season, but have now gone 2-4 since then. Meanwhile, the Bucks went through a four-game skid before defeating the Spurs in San Antonio and handling the Lakers at home. They are now back to a .500 record and are looking to win a third straight match since acquiring Eric Bledsoe from the Phoenix Suns.

I also like the fact that Memphis will be playing a fifth road game in a row, which takes a toll on the body. From an injury standpoint, the Grizzlies might be in a bit of trouble with JaMychal Green being doubtful and Jarell Martin listed as questionable. Coach David Fizdale might have to go with small lineups more often, which is not good news when you are playing yet another game away from home.

The home team has won each of the previous seven meetings between these two clubs.

Have a good start to your week!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: One NHL Pick (and food for thought on Wild-Habs) for Thursday November 9!

Hello NHL fans, today I’m going to provide one value play, and I will also comment the Wild-Canadiens game a little bit (food for thought, in case you are considering betting this game).

PICK: Edmonton Oilers -123 (decimal 1.813) at the New Jersey Devils

Both of these teams are off to a surprising start to the 2017-2018 season, but not for the same reasons.

On one side, you’ve got the Oilers who finished with the 7th most points in the league during the regular season last year, compiling a .573 record. Considering their core players were mostly young (McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins), many people expected them to be even better this year. As a matter of fact, Vegas’ lines indicated they were going to have a .624 record. However, they have stumbled out of the gate with only 5 wins in 14 games (a .357 record).

That being said, I have no doubt in my mind that they will eventually return to form. Having won two of their past three games, is it the start of a new beginning for them?

Meanwhile, the Devils were projected to finish with the 27th-best record in the NHL this year, but they have been exceeding expectations by a wide margin after winning 9 of their first 11 matches! It was obvious they were not going to sustain this kind of success throughout the year, and I was waiting for them to start tumbling. Now that they’ve lost their last three contests, I wouldn’t be surprised if they go on some kind of bigger losing skid.

In summary, you’ve got the Oilers who seem to be on the rise again, while New Jersey might start struggling a lot more. If the money line on that game had been set prior to the start of the season, you can bet Edmonton would have been much more heavily favored. Take advantage of this line while the Oilers are still being underrated and the Devils overrated.

Please note that Edmonton has defeated New Jersey on five of the previous six meetings, including a 6-3 win six days ago.

A few notes about the Minnesota Wild versus Montreal Canadiens game

Charlie Lindgren has been confirmed as the Habs’ starting goalie. In case you were not aware of it, he was born in St. Paul, Minnesota and he grew up as a Wild fan. Therefore, he will be very motivated, but Montreal will probably be missing Jonathan Drouin, a big loss for the Canadiens.

The Wild have prevailed in all of the past six meetings with Montreal, including a 6-3 victory a week ago in Minnesota. Will the streak continue, or will the Habs finally get revenge?

Minnesota will be playing the second leg of back-to-back games after playing in Toronto last night.

I will be publishing a new article very soon about a specific NHL betting strategy which suggests taking teams coming off a losing streak when facing an opponent that is currently riding a winning streak. I will provide very specific details and criteria that must be met in order for you to pull the trigger, but for now just know that this strategy does not necessarily suggest betting the Wild tonight, but it is close. I am definitely staying away from that game because of the conflicting arguments above.

Have a good day guys, I hope you liked this write-up!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: One NBA Pick for Thursday November 9!

Fun fact : all 5 favorites beat the spread last night! I happen to be taking a favorite today, my only play of the day.

PICK: Toronto Raptors -5 vs New Orleans Pelicans (rated 2 stars)

My projected lines based on my statistical models are Pelicans +6.4 versus Raptors-6.4. The difference with the actual spread is not very big, but I see many situational factors favoring the team from the north.

First of all, this will be New Orleans’s fourth straight game on the road, so they’ll have quite a bit of traveling in their body. In contrast, Toronto will be playing a third consecutive match in front of their fans.

The Pelicans have defeated their opponents on all first three games of their current road trip: at Dallas, at Chicago and at Indiana. They might already feel like their mission has been accomplished; who would blame them if they lost tonight? No pressure, but less motivation. Also, notice the strength of opposition they have faced; their combined record is 9-24 thus far this season. Not a great way to be ready to face a tough Raptors team.

Toronto came out with the victory on all four most recent meetings with New Orleans, going 3-1 against the spread in those games.

Thanks for reading and have a nice day!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #10!

Following a perfect 3-0 performance last week, we are now 21-11-2 for the season, which is close to a 66% success rate. With 9 weeks in the book and 8 more to come, let’s see if we can close out the season on a good note. It all starts this week with 2 main picks, and a couple of secondary picks that will also be official plays, but that I like a little bit less than the first two.

PICK #1: Buffalo Bills +2.5 vs New Orleans Saints

Why do I always end up betting games involving the Buffalo Bills this year? I mentioned last week that I was 4-0 predicting the outcome of their games in 2017, so with another correct pick on Week #9 I’m now 5-0. Can we remain perfect?

I’ve only found arguments supporting the Bills, so it made the choice easy. First of all, you know I tend to fade teams coming off an easy win, whereas I also tend to back those who just suffered a tough-to-swallow or an embarrassing loss. Well, in this case we’ve got both occurrences.

On one side, you’ve got the Saints coming off an almost effortless 30-10 win over the Bucs, a game in which Tampa’s hopes of making a comeback vanished when quarterback Jameis Winston was knocked out of the game after one half.

Meanwhile, the Bills put out a pathetic performance against the Jets, turning the ball over three times and allowing 7 sacks to a Jets defense that had recorded just 11 sacks in the entire season thus far! Playing so badly on national television is certainly one of the main reasons why 70% of spread bets have gone on New Orleans so far. The Saints’ 6-game winning streak helps too!

The Bills are getting three extra days of rest after playing the Thursday night game, which is good news for them because they needed time to regroup. They will be looking to rebound in front of their home fans at New Era Field, where they are a perfect 4-0 this season. The players have adopted very well the “Defend our dirt” mantra that was installed by new head coach Sean McDermott. The organization hanged a big sign with this slogan on it near the Bills’ locker room. Each player has a jar full of rubber, sand and dirt picked up at New Era Field and their practice field.

I’m betting on Buffalo to keep its perfect record at home, or at worst to lose this match by 1 or 2 points.

PICK #2: Cleveland Browns +13 at Detroit Lions

I also like this play quite a bit. The rest factor, which is critical when handicapping NFL games, is definitely in favor of Cleveland. They are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had plenty of time to analyze Detroit’s tendencies. Meanwhile, the Lions are losing one day of preparation after having fought their archrivals in Green Bay on Monday night.

We are also observing a clear sandwich game for Detroit. They have just faced New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Green Bay (all good/rival teams) and they are expecting two divisional rivals next with Chicago and Minnesota. The current game against the Browns is very clearly low in the list of priorities. I can easily see Detroit letting down and struggling to beat such a big spread.

That’s especially true considering the Lions are coming off a critical win at Lambeau Field, where they had lost 24 of their previous 25 meetings. They will need to get their head straight and focus on the Browns very quickly.

At this time, it is unknown who will start at quarterback for the Browns, but who cares? Whether it’s DeShone Kizer or Kevin Hogan, they seem equally bad and I’ll still be taking Cleveland in this game.

PICK #3: Seattle Seahawks -5.5 at Arizona Cardinals

As mentioned at the beginning, there’s a gap between my first two picks and my last two. Don’t get me wrong, I still like the last two enough to make them official plays, but I don’t recommend betting as much.

I get it. All NFL teams are pretty motivated for all of their games, but I sincerely believe the level of motivation can still vary from one game to the other. In this case, I’ve got reason to believe the Seahawks will be playing like mad men, much more so than Arizona. First, Seattle just dropped a home game against the Redskins and will be looking to bounce back in a big way. They will also be looking to avenge a couple of disappointing meetings with the Cardinals last year, where Arizona prevailed 34-31 in Seattle before both teams featured the lowest scoring overtime tie in NFL history, a 6-6 tie on Sunday Night Football. It was one of the craziest games I had ever seen, as both kickers missed an easy potential game-winning field goal in overtime.

The Cards beat the 49ers by a 20-10 score last week, and we all know that playing San Francisco is not the best preparation prior to a matchup with Seattle.

Drew Stanton will be Arizona’s quarterback and his numbers against Seattle are not good. In two appearances versus the Seahawks, he completed just 22 of 44 passes for 223 yards, no touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Since 2014, he has thrown 11 TD passes versus 12 picks. Not good.

I expect Seattle to explode and break this game open.

PICK #4: Minnesota Vikings -1 at Washington Redskins

My last pick of the week goes to Minnesota who benefited from a bye week. They will be looking for revenge after losing 26-20 in Washington last year. The Skins have just logged a big win in Seattle and may still feel too good about themselves.

Minnesota is a very tough opponent, even with Case Keenum at the helm who has been doing a very good job this season. He’s surrounded by a good cast of players, including the duo of Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray in the backfield, wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, not to mention the reliable Kyle Rudolph from the tight end position. I trust their offense much more than Washington’s, even though both teams are showing approximately the same number of points scored. Washington’s receiving corps worries me quite a bit. Their current leading receiver is a running back, their best tight end, Jordan Reed, is questionable to play and their leading WR, Jamison Crowder, is out. They are not scaring many people from this standpoint.

Also notice how Minnesota’s point differential this season is +44 versus -17 for the Skins.

Ok so those were my four official picks for Week #10 in the NFL! If you wish to open an account with a new sportsbook, don’t forget to take a look at my list of 20 online sportsbooks to which I have awarded a grade out of 100%. Check out the “Sportsbook Reviews” section for details.

Good luck on your plays this weekend, thanks for reading, we’ll talk again soon. Bye bye!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: 2 NBA Picks for Tuesday November 7!

Hi guys, with 10 games on the menu in the NBA tonight, I’ve found two good plays; one that is rated 3 stars and the other 2 stars. Let me reveal my arguments to you.

PICK #1: Utah Jazz -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers (rated 3 stars)

First, let’s start with the negative elements of information if you are planning to bet Utah: 1) the Sixers will be more rested, having benefited from three full days of rest compared to only one for the Jazz; 2) all four losses by Philadelphia were against tough opponents (Washington, Boston, Toronto and Houston) so they have been doing a solid job thus far this season.

Let’s move on to the good news now. Utah is very healthy, while the Sixers will be resting their star player, Joel Embiid, while point guard Jerryd Bayless will also miss the game because of a wrist injury. The number one overall pick from last year’s draft, Markelle Fultz, will also miss his sixth consecutive game.

The 76ers are coming off four straight wins, but the last two were against weaker opponents (Atlanta and Indiana), which is not a good preparation for a tough road game in Utah. In contrast, the Jazz have dropped their latest two matches versus tough opposition (Toronto and Houston).

Finally, recent meetings have been hugely in favor of Utah. They are 9-0 over the past nine meetings (6-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games). Philly has not won in Utah in its last 12 tries. Also, last year’s two meetings were blowout wins by the Jazz, as shown by the 17 and 25-point deficits (Embiid played one of these two games).

PICK #2: Denver Nuggets -11.5 vs Brooklyn Nets (rated 2 stars)

My statistical models believe the Nuggets should be established as 12.1-point favorites. The difference with the actual point spread is minimal, but situational factors have led me to bet this game anyway.

Denver has no injuries (except Juan Hernangomez, but his impact is extremely minimal), while Brooklyn is unlikely to have Trevor Booker back tonight. Hollis-Jefferson got hurt last night, but seems ready to go. The Nets still have to deal with the absence of Jeremy Lin for the remainder of the season. I have slightly penalized Brooklyn to account for injuries.

As mentioned above, the Nets were playing last night, while Denver got a couple of days of rest. Tonight’s game will mark the Nets’ third road game in a row, whereas the Nuggets will be hosting for the fourth consecutive time (no traveling).

I don’t believe the Nuggets will take this game lightly after getting beaten up 127-108 against the Warriors. They will be looking for an easy win of their own this time.

I like how Denver has faced tough opposition of late (Golden State, Miami and Toronto), which is the complete opposite of Brooklyn whose last three games were against lousy clubs (the Suns twice and the Lakers).

Brooklyn had won six straight games against the Nuggets (all ATS too!), but Denver has won the past two meetings (both straight up and ATS).

The Nets could be looking for payback following a 124-111 home loss versus those same Nuggets nine days ago, but I’m still taking Denver in this one.

Cheers everyone!

Professor MJ