MLB Betting Model Tips

Rays (Snell) vs Dodgers (Gonsolin)

Record 2020: 63-47, +15.20 units

This is maybe the last game of this season. Dodgers are leading 3-2 and after they spend a lot of money in last years to win the World Series, they are very close now.

They have been a very good team whole season and if we check their hitting numbers, they will also have advantage against Rays in this game. Scoring 5.8 runs per game versus 4.6 from Rays.

Rays will start with left handed pitcher Blake Snell on the mound. He pitched 4.67 innings in the last game versus Dodgers and allowed only 2 runs, which was impressive. But 4-5 innings will be not enough in this one, because the game is played 9 innings and I believe in last innings Dodgers will have the advantage, because they have better bullpen and they also have better hitting team.

The question is how will Gonsolin pitch in this one. He went only 1 inning last time against Rays, where he allowed 1 run and his ERA in postseason is now 9.32 with the record 0-2. But this is of course not the whole picture. His overall season ERA is 3.31 and his whip is 0.96 which is even better than Snell (whip 1.24).

Betting Model Prediction

My betting model gives Dodgers 60.28% of chance to win this game. And of course to find a value, which is the key if we pull a trigger or not, we must compare our projected odds with bookmakers odds.

My projected odds and bookmakers odds are too close to make a bet. Not enough value.

But when it comes to percentages and small value, I think we have small value with the Dodgers. They have a better chance to close this series and this season today.

No bet for me.

MLB Sports Betting Picks based on MLB betting model – Rays (Glasnow) vs Dodgers (Kershaw) Game 1

Here is my MLB sports betting model prediction and estimated win%:

mlb betting spreadsheet

Tampa Bay Rays will start with Glasnow on the mound who is 7-2, ERA 4.23, Whip 1.17 this season. On the other side we have lefty Kershaw, who is 8-3 with ERA 2.44 and Whip 0.87.

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 1.60 on Dodgers and they didn’t change them much since the opening. My betting model slightly gives small value to Tampa bay Rays in this game, but based on my betting criteria, there is still not enough value with Tampa Bay to pull a trigger.

The biggest discrepancy between my projected numbers and bookmakers odds is in 1st5 inning, where I think +149 on Tampa is little bit too much. Glasnow’s ERA is 4.23 but this is of course not whole story. His K/9 ratio is 10.94 and he has very solid SIERA and FiP numbers. This is where some bettors could underestimate him and if we take into account that Kershaw is not a good playoff pitcher (Kershaw’s career postseason ERA (4.31) compared to career regular-season ERA (2.43)) I think that there is a small value with Rays first half.

Anyway, I would still like to see little bit bigger value (read: better odds) before I would make a bet on Rays 1st5. This season I was little bit more selective and I am taking only adjk 1.80  value bets.

MLB Betting Season Record 2020

63-47, +15.20 Units, Yield (ROI): +10.14%

I hope my numbers will help you to make better betting decision today.

Good Luck

MB

Free MLB Betting Picks – October 12, 2020

We have 2 MLB playoffs games between Rays vs Astros and Dodgers vs Braves. I didn’t find any value bet in MLB game between Rays and Astros, but we have some value compared to betting odds on the market in the game between Dodgers vs Braves.

mlb playoffs bet prediction

Dodgers vs Braves

We have two very potent lineups that can score runs. Braves just come to this game after they scored 7 runs against Miami and Dodgers scored 12 runs against San Diego Padres. Both teams score more than 5.5 runs, which makes them top offensive teams in the league. The bookmakers set MLB total lines at 8 for the full game and 4 for 1st 5 innings, which I think is little bit too low. They will play a game in Texas Rangers’ Globe Life Field, which is now much more pitcher friendly environment for Rangers than in previous years, but even if we consider this current totals are little bit too low. I have projected the totals should be much closer to 10 for the full game and close to 5.5 for first half MLB betting.

Recommended plays:

  • OVER 8

  • OVER 4 1st Half

Oakland Athletics +109 ML

Oakland Athletics 1st5 +105

 

Today’s MLB Betting Model Projections and Bet Predictions