MLB Sports Betting Picks based on MLB betting model – Rays (Glasnow) vs Dodgers (Kershaw) Game 1

Here is my MLB sports betting model prediction and estimated win%:

mlb betting spreadsheet

Tampa Bay Rays will start with Glasnow on the mound who is 7-2, ERA 4.23, Whip 1.17 this season. On the other side we have lefty Kershaw, who is 8-3 with ERA 2.44 and Whip 0.87.

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 1.60 on Dodgers and they didn’t change them much since the opening. My betting model slightly gives small value to Tampa bay Rays in this game, but based on my betting criteria, there is still not enough value with Tampa Bay to pull a trigger.

The biggest discrepancy between my projected numbers and bookmakers odds is in 1st5 inning, where I think +149 on Tampa is little bit too much. Glasnow’s ERA is 4.23 but this is of course not whole story. His K/9 ratio is 10.94 and he has very solid SIERA and FiP numbers. This is where some bettors could underestimate him and if we take into account that Kershaw is not a good playoff pitcher (Kershaw’s career postseason ERA (4.31) compared to career regular-season ERA (2.43)) I think that there is a small value with Rays first half.

Anyway, I would still like to see little bit bigger value (read: better odds) before I would make a bet on Rays 1st5. This season I was little bit more selective and I am taking only adjk 1.80  value bets.

MLB Betting Season Record 2020

63-47, +15.20 Units, Yield (ROI): +10.14%

I hope my numbers will help you to make better betting decision today.

Good Luck


Free MLB Betting Picks – October 12, 2020

We have 2 MLB playoffs games between Rays vs Astros and Dodgers vs Braves. I didn’t find any value bet in MLB game between Rays and Astros, but we have some value compared to betting odds on the market in the game between Dodgers vs Braves.

mlb playoffs bet prediction

Dodgers vs Braves

We have two very potent lineups that can score runs. Braves just come to this game after they scored 7 runs against Miami and Dodgers scored 12 runs against San Diego Padres. Both teams score more than 5.5 runs, which makes them top offensive teams in the league. The bookmakers set MLB total lines at 8 for the full game and 4 for 1st 5 innings, which I think is little bit too low. They will play a game in Texas Rangers’ Globe Life Field, which is now much more pitcher friendly environment for Rangers than in previous years, but even if we consider this current totals are little bit too low. I have projected the totals should be much closer to 10 for the full game and close to 5.5 for first half MLB betting.

Recommended plays:

  • OVER 8

  • OVER 4 1st Half

Oakland Athletics +109 ML

Oakland Athletics 1st5 +105


Today’s MLB Betting Model Projections and Bet Predictions