CSGO betting Model Predictions

Today we have 4 games with estimated percentages and CSGO betting predictions from two leagues:

  • Counter-Strike Flashpoint – Season 2
  • Counter-Strike Intel Extreme Masters – Beijing

Check my comments, numbers, and estimated percentages in this Video:

Today’s CSGO VALUE BETS:

  • Team Spirit 2.01

  • MAD Lions 2.11

 

Wish you good luck, whatever you take.

MB

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CSGO betting Model Picks

Today we have 2 games from Counter-Strike Blast Premier: Fall and with the help of my  betting model we found two value bets.

>>>CSGO betting record: 77-86, +18.92

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Complexity 2.24

Complexity will face Vitality in this one and the odds were opened at 2.34 on Pinnacle but soon dropped to around 2.25, which I still think is a lot of value.

Complexity is #14 ranked team, but they have a new player on their team – jks. He replaced NaToSaphiX and I think we will see better team now. NaToSaphiX is ranked just around 200 among all players and for this team, this is a huge upgrade, because jsk is ranked among top 25 players and the only question is how fast he will adopt to a new team.

Vitality on the other side is a French #3 ranked and have one of the best players in their team – ZywOo. They beat Complexity in the last game on October 10th by 2-0, but back then Complexity still played with NaToSaphiX, who was the worst player in the game with K/D 27-42, +/- -15, ADR 46.8 KAST  67.8% RATING 0.73.

I believe that with fresh player on the team, we can see much mush closer game and my betting model favours Complexity in this game.

FaZe 2.81

Another underdog today. Faze #8 ranked team will face #6 ranked team BIG. In the last game between these two teams on October 9 FaZe beat Big by 2-0 and I believe the odds are little bit too big on BIG. I think we can see much much closer game and my betting model has this games close to 50-50.

Wish you good luck, whatever you take.

MB

Join Betting Course

 

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Hey,

Here you can find NHL betting picks and predictions. Every sports betting pick is based on betting model.

If you don’t see any betting pick here, that means I didn’t make projections and analysis today.

Do you want to see more? Please check other:

or

to get more info about picks results, betting, strategy and more…

csgo betting

Today’s CSGO Betting

FAVOURITE:

Philadelphia (Pivetta) 1.53 / -189

Philadelphia Phillies lost yesterday and they will definitely try to bounce back after a loss. And I see nice chances for them with some +EV compared to bookmakers odds. They will start with Nick Pivetta, who is 6-9 to the season with the ERA of 4.40, but if we check his performance, he is pitching much better and we can expect the ERA will go down. I rank him much higher than league average pitcher, he struck out 152 batters in 124 innings this season and he has been also very hot lately (ERA 1.50, whip 0.877) in last couple of starts. Mets on the other side will start with Vargas, left handed pitcher, who has ERA of 8.10 and his pitching is not great at all. All other ERA metrics are against him (SIERA 4.95). So, I think that Philadelphia will have huge pitching advantage today and one another bad thing for Mets is that they have one of the worst bullpen in the league (I rank their bullpen #29 out of 30 teams). Based on my projections, I give Philadelphia 69.51% of chance to win this game.

UNDERDOG:

Milwaukee (Chacin) 2.07 / +107

Milwaukee Brewers lost yesterday, but I think we have two very good teams this season and honestly we didn’t expect, that Milwaukee will be a winning team in August, but it looks like that both teams will fight for playoffs this season. Milwaukee will start with Chacin and on the other side St Louis will start with Gant. In this pitching match up, I don’t see any advantage, I rank both pitchers close to league average. But I think that Milwaukee will have the advantage in the second part of the game. Their bullpen is among the best in the league (#5 ranked based on my rankings) and St Louis bullpen is below league average (#25). The big question for Milwaukee are still Thames and Braun if they will play or not, but I think that this will be close game and bullpen could be crucial later in the game. Note that there is just tiny value with Milwaukee and it depends on the odds you get from your bookmaker.

TOTAL:

Baltimore / Cleveland – Over 9

Cleveland ballpark is one of the most hitters friendly ballparks this season. And if we check Indians at home, they also score 5.6 runs per game. Cleveland will start with Clevinger, who holds ERA 3.38 (home 4.01). He has been very solid this season and I rank him just little bit above league average pitcher. On the other side Ramirez will play for Baltimore and his ERA is above 6 and above 10 in last 3 starts, but as I said many times ERA is not good future predictor and I am not betting on this total because he has ERA above 6. I rank him below league average and his realistic ERA should be around 4.70. So we have two close to league average pitchers in a hitters friendly ballpark this season and what is interesting, but teams are hitting well lately. In last 30 days I rank both teams in terms of hitting in top 10. Note also, that Baltimore has one of the worst bullpen in the league and after two low scoring games in Cleveland I expect more runs today. I especially expect from Cleveland to score more and I also expect from Baltimore to score couple of runs.

Cloudbet-2017

Quick basics

  • Favourites: plays on teams/outcomes, where bookmakers opinion is that the outcome has more than 50% of chance to win. Please understand, that the chance of winning is totally different than, expected value.
  • Underdogs: Bets on the outcomes with +EV, but based on bookmakers opinion we have less than 50% of chance to win a bet/outcome. Underdog bets are recommended for advanced players with strong money managements.
  • Totals: Betting on total runs/goals/points
  • CLV = closing line value is the most important indicator if you will be a long term winner or not. According to Pinnacle (which is the sharpest bookmaker in the world): “The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.”
  • Betting projection = my estimated winning percentage turned into the numbers (odds). I project winning percentage for every single game and then I look at the games, where my odds are different than bookmakers odds. I use statistics and my betting models. I reveal betting models in A Journey Betting Course.

​Hi,

when it comes to baseball most bettors will take a look on ERA, BA and RUNS scored per game. But those numbers are not good future predictors and can fool an average baseball bettor. Here are couple of Sunday’s games, that are very interesting:

Colorado (Bettis) at Miami (Smith)

TeamPitcherHandSIERAxFIPERA
RockiesChad BettisR4.924.642.4
MarlinsCaleb SmithL44.165.82

This game is definitely one of the first you can take a deeper look on. Colorado will face Marlins and Miami just changed their pitchers to start Dan Straily on Monday. They will start with Caleb Smith on Sunday and on the first look Colorado will have huge pitching advantage, because their pitcher Bettis has much better ERA. But as I said many times, ERA is not the best future predictor for baseball games and we need to take a look on other important factors and ERA estimators. And we see, that Smith has better numbers here. I would say, that Bettis numbers are poor and Smith numbers are average or slightly below average. Most bettors will be fooled with ERA numbers in this game I believe, but if we compare pitchers in this game, then I would not give any advantage to Colorado.

Arizona (Ray) @ Washington (Gonzalez)

TeamPitcherHandSIERAxFIPERA
DiamondbacksRobbie RayL3.453.495.13
NationalsGio GonzalezL43.863.04

The second game that is very interesting is between Arizona and Washington. Gonzalez has much better ERA, but if we compare other ERA estimators, then we see that Arizona will have the advantage. Note also, that this is a game with two left handed pitchers. Arizona scores 5.4 runs per game against lefties and Washington only 3.6 with very bad BA of 0.197. I rank Arizona as 8th best versus LHP and Washington as 28th vs LHP. But one interesting about Ray is that he lost all games in his career against Washington (0-4, ERA 6.65).

Seattle (Gonzales) @ Cleveland (Tomlin)

TeamPitcherHandSIERAxFIPERA
MarinersMarco GonzalesL2.812.415.56
IndiansJosh TomlinR5.566.210.03

The bookmakers opened this game close to even. They still give Cleveland better chances, but Seattle is only a small underdog of 2.06 (+106) here. And I completely agree with them. An average bettor will probably jump on Cleveland at home for a very good price, but let’s check this interesting game. We have both pitchers with high ERA. But we have also one pitcher, who has much better other two numbers and I definitely give pitching advantage to Seattle here. Gonzales struck out 27 hitters in 22 games. Tomlin on the other side struck out 7 batters in 11 innings and what is even more interesting is that he already allowed 8 home runs. Second thing that is very interesting, is Tomlin’s record versus Seattle. He is 5-1 against Seattle with ERA of 3.74 and his team is 6-1. This is pretty good record, right? And an average bettor, who wants to bet on this game will take Tomlin, because he has very good record versus Seattle. But most bettors will also probably miss one very important thing. He played only 2 games versus Seattle in last 2 seasons and he allowed 17 hits, 6 runs in 11 innings. The other games were 2014 or older. Seattle is totally different team since 2014. And if we go deeper, we can check Tomlin’s numbers against current Seattle lineup. They combined 76 at bats, batting average of .329, 13 extra bases hits and 3 home runs. Three key players from Seattle – Cano, Seager and Cruz have very good numbers agaisnt Tomlin. Cano 2 home runs, BA 0.400 in 20 at-bats, Seager has 5 extra bases hits and batting average of 0.429 in 14 at bats and Cruz has a home run in 10 at bats versus Tomlin. Take into account that Cleveland scores only 3.3 runs versus lefties with batting average of 0.170.

Those are three interesting games for Sunday and I recommend, that you make an extra research. I just wanted to show you how you can look at games from a different perspective and especially you should not focus on mainstream numbers, that you get on ESPN.

Here are the projections for the rest of Saturday games…

DO YOU WANT TO LEARN how I project my own lines and get lifetime access to all my videos?

I can show you all this in my A Journey betting course (set of 42 videos and more coming). I already projected my odds for all Sunday’s MLB baseball games and I reveal my betting models in A Journey betting course. Don’t miss 30% OFF – still 2 days left for this special offer:

Thanks for reading my content and I wish you good luck whatever you bet.

MB, Underdogchance.com

I will show you today, how you can analyse baseball games and we will take a game between Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays as an example.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Analysis

Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will play the first game of a 3 game series in Canada and both teams had a day off yesterday. Boston Red Sox will start with Rick Porcello, right handed pitcher, who is 4-0 to the season with ERA of 1.40, whip 0.818 and 23/1 K/BB rate in 25 innings. Toronto Blue Jays on the other side will start with J.A. Happ, let handed pitcher, who is 3-1 to the season with ERA of 4.50, whip 1.273 and 31/7 K/BB rate in 22 innings so fart this season.

Boston is 17-4 to the season and they have an amazing start so far. They score 5.9 runs per game and two of four losses came in last two games. They lost two straight games in Oakland.

Toronto Blue Jays on the other side is 13-8 to the season and they score 5.5 runs per game. They are coming home after two big losses against Yankees on the road. Yankees won 3 out of 4 games in this series and in the last two games, they outscored Blue Jays by 14-2 in runs.

Those are just basic information that we can find anywhere and of course, this is not enough to make a final bet.

Different approach betting 

So, let’s start with couple of different approaches. Sports handicappers make bets on a different ways. Some bettors will make bets just based on their gut feeling, some bettors will just analyse line movement, some bettors will use strictly statics bets and some will combine all together. We have different methods, we have different styles and if your method is making a profit for you, this is ok.

Baseball Betting Model

I use my betting model to estimate my winning percentages. I turn those winning percentages into the odds and then I compare my odds with the bookmakers odds. My betting models are the heart of my sports betting decisions. But before we go to my projected odds on this game, let’s start with the odds. The odds are the key. Betting is not about finding the winners, but about finding the value. In other words it is about finding the right price in a sports betting market. And if you can get better price than market, then you are doing well. But to know what is a good price we need to research games and estimate our own odds somehow.

So, let’s research this game game as a sports bettors, not as a sports fans.

OPENING ODDS AND MOVEMENT

The first thing you can do is to check the opening lines or the odds if you like. There are couple of free sites, that share this information. Oddsportal and SBR are two of them.

I will take a look at Pinnacle sports odds. Pinnacle is probably the sharpest bookmaker in the world and what kind of information you get if you check the lines?

First (BOOKMAKERS OPINION)

when Pinnacle open the lines, you get their first opinion on this game. Of course this is not final, because they will later move the line because of betting action and possibly also because of some other information that they will get later (injuries, lineups,…). But let’s check their opening odds:

  • TORONTO – 2.11 (+111)
  • BOSTON – 1.83 (-120)

We can say, that this is bookmakers opinion on this game. We can easily turn those odds into percentages to see how much chances they give to home and away team. If we divide 1/2.11 and 1/1.83 we get implied probabilities. They added some margins this is why when you sum both numbers you will not get 1, but little bit bigger number:

1.830.5464480874
2.110.4739336493
SUM1.020381737

If we cheat little bit, we can get probabilities on this game:

ODDSProb. (Margins)Probability
1.830.54644808740.5362572191
2.110.47393364930.4637427809
SUM1.0203817371

 

I simply take out the margins (juice): (1.020381737 – 1)/2

So, what kind of information you get with opening odds?

Bookmakers gave 53.63% of chance to Boston and 46.37% of chance to Toronto. In other words if they repeat this game a lot of times, bookmakers think, that Boston will win around 54 times out of 100 and Toronto 46 times out of 100.

Second (Bettors opinion)

After the opening odds we usually see some line movement and usually professional bettors opinion is little bit different then bookmakers opinion:

  • 04/23 11:10 PM 1.93 2.00
    04/23 09:38 PM 1.88 2.05
    04/23 09:37 PM 1.91 2.02
    04/23 09:26 PM 1.89 2.04
    04/23 09:25 PM 1.88 2.05
    04/23 09:24 PM 1.86 2.07
    04/23 09:23 PM 1.87 2.06
    04/23 02:41 PM 1.85 2.08
    04/23 01:56 PM 1.83 2.11

The initial line movement shows, that there was an action on Toronto and bettors tried to get better price here. The odds started dropping later too. But initial line movement is something that we like to see. Note also, that sometimes such movement can be done intentionally too, because of better price later. But in general, initial line movement show that there is some action on Toronto. Bookmakers will move the line because of sharp bettors action. And we as a bettors we like to be on sharp side, not on public side.

Third (public opinion)

After bookmakers open the lines and move the line, public will later jump and there will probably be some other movement couple of hours before game starts.

What I wanted to show you here is that you can always check what is bookmakers opinion on games in terms of probability and what are initial line movements. If you estimate your chances and if bookmakers have the chance of around 55% on one team and you think or estimate your own odds on this team at around 95%, then something is wrong. Bookmakers opinions are pretty good and we are looking for games, where we think that their probabilities should be little bit lower or little bit bigger.

So, bookmakers gave Boston better chance, but the odds dropped after one hour on Toronto from 2.11 to 2.08 an later to 2.00. The question is will those odds go to 1.95 or will those odds go back to 2.05. This is the market and you can try to speculate and get the best price. And if your price will be better than it is a closing line, then you will bet closing line. Pinnacle says, that if you can beat the closing line constantly, this is better indicator of who is a winning bettor than a profit. And if you beat the closing line, but you still didn’t make a profit, you were unlucky.

BETTING MODEL, VALUE AND MY WINNING PERCENTAGES

There are different approaches and different betting styles, some bettors will say, that only line movement is important, some other will say, that only statistics/betting models is important and a lot of bettors will say, that we don’t need to use statistics and analytics and they have special gift for betting. If we exclude the last type of betting, because I unfortunately don’t have super-human betting power and I believe most of you also don’t have this power, we need to to work and research games. And one thing is for sure:

One baseball game is an event, where two possible outcomes are possible. Home team win and away team win.

I have projected my winning percentages for both teams. How, You can learn here.

I have projected that Toronto Blue Jay should have 58.7% of chance to win this game and Boston Red Sox only 41.30% of chance. If the model is correct somehow, I see that I give Toronto more than 50% of chance, while bookmakers give them less than 50% of chance.

My fair odds on Toronto are set at 1.70 and this is basically direct price, that I expect. Or in other words, if my trust the model, I would expect, that I make a profit of $70 for my risked $100 if I bet and win with Toronto.

But we saw, that bookmakers offer me the odds of around 2.00 at this moment. They are willing to pay me more than I would expect. If I bet $100 on Toronto, I will make a profit of $100. Because of that I have a value on Toronto Blue Jays. Of course, if I would be quicker and if I would take Toronto earlier (my betting model is not dependent on line movement), I would get even better price. Some better or smarter bettors were faster and take Toronto for much better price. But what I like here is that the initial line movement and my betting model are on the same side.

TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE GAME

After we have information about the odds and after you have estimated your own winning percentages, we can make an extra analysis. I usually don’t like to write analysis, because if you want to write good and unique analysis, you need at least 45 minutes. Bettors then read this analysis and from delivering to final bets we lose couple of hours. And let’s check what can happen if you are 2 hours too late:

Because of writing analysis we probably lose the opening price of 2.11, and let’s say, that you I write analysis and I get the price of 2.06 and you get this analysis 2 hours later. Yes, this is exactly this example

04/23 11:10 PM 1.93 2.00 (get analysis)
04/23 09:38 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:37 PM 1.91 2.02
04/23 09:26 PM 1.89 2.04
04/23 09:25 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:24 PM 1.86 2.07
04/23 09:23 PM 1.87 2.06 (write analysis)
04/23 02:41 PM 1.85 2.08
04/23 01:56 PM 1.83 2.11 (opening price)

What that means in reality if you constantly get 2.00 instead of 2.06 on 1000 bets? And in Toronto vs Boston game we are talking about only 2 hours later.

Win%WLOdds 2 (+100)Odds 2.06 (+106)
47.50%475525-50-21.5
48.00%480520-40-11.2
48.50%485515-30-0.9
49.00%490510-209.4
49.50%495505-1019.7
50.00%500500030
50.50%5054951040.3
51.00%5104902050.6
51.50%5154853060.9
52.00%5204804071.2

In the best case (52% winning percentage) you can lose 31.2 units of profit on the long run, just because you didn’t make your own bets at the right time, but you read and follow other people’s picks. With $100 per unit, this is loss of $3120, just because of 2 hours late. Let’s go further. Betting $100 per game usually requires bankroll of $10.000, right? And losing $3120 on initial bankroll of $10,000 just because you are always too late, is little bit to much, isn’t it? Yes, of course every game is a different case and we can not use this example and implement it on every single baseball game, but I wanted to show you how much money you can lose because of writing and reading analysis of other people, instead of making your own.

But let’s get back to analysis of this game:

STARTING PITCHERS

The most important players in a baseball game are pitchers and because of them the odds changing on a daily basis, despite teams will play 3-4 games in a row against the same team.

Starting pitchers will start the game, which is 9 innings long (if we exclude extra innings if they happen). A lot of bettors will focus on ERA, which is not the best indicator of how good pitcher is, so I will show you couple of other things to check.

J.A. Happ is a lefty pitcher, who will start for Toronto and his ERA is 4.50 so far this season and this will tell us how many runs this pitcher allows per 9 innings. But ERA doesn’t include many other things and sometimes pitchers were just lucky. Imagine, that you have a pitcher with ERA 0, but he walked many hitters and he survived couple of bases loaded situation. Of course, ERA will be low, but on the long run, if he continues to play like this he will be hit hard. And ERA will not tell you this. ERA will tell you what happened, but we want to know what can possibly happen in the next game based on pitchers performance.

There are two very good sites like Fangraphs and Baseball-reference, where they provide some ERA metrics numbers and in this example we can check Happ’s xFIP (xFIP = ((13*(Fly balls * lgHR/FB%))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant). (fangraphs)

RatingFIP
Excellent2.90
Great3.20
Above Average3.50
Average3.80
Below Average4.10
Poor4.40
Awful4.70

HAPP ERA = 4.50

HAPP xFIP = 2.97

As you can see in his example, despite his ERA is not that great his xFIP is almost excellent and xFIP for example is better future predictor than ERA. So with Happ we have very good pitcher on the mound.

He struck out 31 hitters in 22 innings this season, which is amazing. He went 5.5 innings per game, so we can expect that 3 innings will be pitched by bullpen and the biggest problem so far I see is that he allowed 5 home runs. This is the reason for big ERA.

What about his history against current Red Sox lineup?

BATTERABHRRSOAVGOBPSLGOPSwOBA
J.D. Martinez R100200.30.4170.30.7170.342
Eduardo Nunez R210130.2860.3180.3810.6990.309
Christian Vazquez R140240.2860.3330.3570.690.31
Rafael Devers L60020.3330.3330.3330.6670.3
Hanley Ramirez R321660.1880.3080.3440.6510.292
Mookie Betts R261320.1920.2220.4230.6450.272
Brock Holt L90120.2220.30.3330.6330.285
Sandy Leon S60020.1670.1670.1670.3330.15
Jackie Bradley Jr. L140150.0710.1330.1430.2760.13
Andrew Benintendi L1000200.16700.1670.117
Mitch Moreland L501200000
Boston Red Sox:153217300.1960.2660.3010.5670.255

As we can see, he has some very solid numbers against current Boston lineup, despite I would not pay such a big attention to those numbers because usually we have very small sample sizes and we must be careful how much weight we give.

However, Boston players combined 153 at bats against him with batting average of 0.196, which is also not most important metric for future predictions. But to get the first picture about how he played in the past against Boston Red Sox players we can check some numbers above in the table.

Happ is also 7-3 in his career against Boston and his team is 10-6 in those games. His career ERA versus Boston is 3.24.

Rick Porcello on the other side is a right handed pitcher, who will start for Boston. He is 4-0 to the season and he struck out 23 hitters in 25 innings. The most amazing thing about him so far is that he has amazing control. He walked only 1 hitter so far.

PORCELO ERA – 1.40

PORCELLO xFIP – 3.34

But if we check his xFIP numbers against Happ’s numbers, we see, that Happ has lower xFIP. At the end of the day, there will not be such a huge advantage and if we strictly stick with xFIP numbers, Toronto will have the advantage here.

Let’s check his numbers versus Toronto’s players:

BATTERABHRRSOAVGOBPSLGOPSwOBA
Luke Maile R100011231.25
Steve Pearce R90100.4440.4440.6671.1110.478
Justin Smoak S303680.2670.3890.6331.0220.428
Kevin Pillar R360370.2780.3160.3890.7050.311
Teoscar Hernandez R30010.3330.3330.3330.6670.3
Aledmys Diaz R30110.3330.3330.3330.6670.3
Devon Travis R150110.2670.3120.3330.6460.291
Kendrys Morales S392570.2050.2440.3850.6290.272
Curtis Granderson L130140.2310.2310.2310.4620.208
Russell Martin R291470.1030.1880.2070.3940.184
Randal Grichuk R200100.33300.3330.233
Active totals for
Toronto Blue Jays:180622370.2390.2970.40.6970.307

Toronto have 180 at bats against him, with batting average of 0.239 and 6 home runs.

Porcello is 9-8 against Toronto with ERA of 4.98 and his team is 10-10. Solid numbers, but if you strictly bet based on this pitcher vs batter information, then betting on Happ versus Boston would make you +5.2 units of profit in his career, while betting on Porcello would make you a loss of 0.9 units in his career versus Toronto.

The conclusion about pitchers: According to xFIP we have small advantage on Toronto’s side. Both pitchers have been playing very well so far and we will probably see very good pitching duel. Happ has pitched well against Boston in the past as well.

BULLPEN

The old times, when pitchers went 9 innings and at the same time scored 3 home runs are gone. Starting pitchers average is around 5.5 innings per game (my number is 5.46 innings per game for qualified SP last 365 days). If we know, that the game is 9 inning long, we simply can not ignore last 3-4 innings right? This is still more than 30% of the game.

When you make an analysis on bullpen (relievers), you can always check bullpen usage and if their key relievers pitched in a game the day before. But in our case, both teams had day off yesterday, so I will consider that all relievers, that are not injured are available today and can be used.

BOSTON PitchersGPIP
Matt Barnes11.1
Heath Hembree11
Brian Johnson10
Joe Kelly11
Craig Kimbrel00
Carson Smith10.1
Hector Velazquez13
Marcus Walden00
Team total IP:6.2

 

PitcherGPIP
John Axford21.2
Danny Barnes22
Tyler Clippard11
Aaron Loup11
Tim Mayza00
Seung-Hwan Oh21.2
Roberto Osuna11
Ryan Tepera11
Team total IP:9.1

I like to compare teams bullpens advanced ERA metrics numbers and according to my numbers I rank Blue Jays bullpen little bit better. I rank Blue Jays bullpen as 7th best and Boston as 16th best in the league (out of 30 teams).

TORONTO BULLPEN ERA – 2.12

TORONTO BULLPEN xFIP – 3.74

BOSTON BULLPEN ERA – 3.25

BOSTON BULLPEN xFIP – 3.83

As you can see, I would give small advantage here to Blue Jays.

HITTING AND THE OFFENSE

So, after we get the first picture about pitchers we need to check how many runs can our team score. Mainstream statistics that most sports fans and commentators use are home runs (HR), batting average (BA) and runs (R). Those are not the best future predictors and I see that more and more people started to talk about other metrics.

But let’s start with the basic picture about those two teams.

Boston scores 5.9 runs per game and they are one of the best offensive teams so far. Toronto on the other side scores 5.5 runs per game, which is also about league average. But instead of focusing on batting average you can focus on some other things, like  OBP, SLG, OPS, WRC+,…

And what I like to focus is on lefty vs righty matchups against hitters. In general, when left handed pitchers face left handed batters they have big advantage. It is much harder to hit left handed pitcher if you are a left handed batter. Second interesting thing is that there is much less left handed pitchers in the game and hitters sometimes are not that familiar with them. Of course this can not be the rule for every single player, but teams like to have at least one lefty in their rotation and at least one lefty in their bullpen so he can go against left handed batters in crucial moments.

According to my rankings I rank Boston as a 4th best offensive team in the league and Toronto as a 10th best team in the league. But this game is special because Boston will face a left handed pitcher and they were in 101 at bats this season against lefties. And what is interesting, I rank them as 29th team vs lefties so far. And today they will need to face Happ, that has almost excellent xFIP numbers and has very good past numbers vs Red Sox. Even if we check only runs/game, we see that Boston scores only 3.3 runs per game versus lefties, while on the other side they score much more vs righties. Note also, that Boston score little bit less on the road (4.7 compared to their overall 5.9 number)

Toronto on the other side score 5.5 runs per game, but they are much better versus right handed pitchers – 6.7 (this is the situation for them today) and they score more against lefties too – 5.8.

I rank Toronto as a 6th best team versus righties so far, while I rank Boston as a 29th versus lefties so far.

(of course I can not reveal everything in this post, but you can check my A Journey course, where I reveal exactly how I project my odds and what kind of metric and rankings I use)

FIELDING, ERRORS,…

The next thing you can do is to research couple of other things. How teams play in the field, how many errors they make, how good they are in stealing bases, etc…

BALLPARK FACTORS

We all know, that teams play in different ballparks and we have ballparks that are hitters friendly and ballparks that are pitchers friendly. In other words if Albert Pujols would play his whole career in Coors Field his numbers would be much better. I use ballpark adjusted numbers for my betting model. If you don’t use ballparks adjusted statistics, you can take this into account too.

Here is one interesting table from fantasypros, where you can get little bit better picture, which ballparks are hitters or pitchers friendly.

PARK NAME
RUNS
HR
1B
2B
3B
Coors Field
(Colorado Rockies)
1.3781.2231.1951.2671.816
Globe Life Park in Arlington
(Texas Rangers)
1.1721.0831.1191.1141.157
Chase Field
(Arizona Diamondbacks)
1.1641.1191.0241.2291.711
Fenway Park
(Boston Red Sox)
1.1380.9501.1131.2801.095
Progressive Field
(Cleveland Indians)
1.1381.0431.0701.2340.635
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
(Baltimore Orioles)
1.0461.1831.0460.9010.745
Target Field
(Minnesota Twins)
1.0461.0821.0671.0461.032
Miller Park
(Milwaukee Brewers)
1.0451.1780.9411.0701.000
Great American Ball Park
(Cincinnati Reds)
1.0371.1330.9701.0010.734
Kauffman Stadium
(Kansas City Royals)
1.0310.7951.0071.1831.398
Comerica Park
(Detroit Tigers)
1.0281.0251.0110.9961.485
Yankee Stadium
(New York Yankees)
1.0251.3010.9420.8560.613
Nationals Park
(Washington Nationals)
1.0051.0301.0441.0040.652
Rogers Centre
(Toronto Blue Jays)
0.9930.9780.9481.1421.000
Turner Field
(Atlanta Braves)
0.9900.8191.0160.9760.812
Wrigley Field
(Chicago Cubs)
0.9851.0040.9710.9331.135
Citizens Bank Park
(Philadelphia Phillies)
0.9801.2340.9470.9010.861
PNC Park
(Pittsburgh Pirates)
0.9640.8931.0260.9980.990
O.co Coliseum
(Oakland Athletics)
0.9570.8600.9711.0111.365
U.S. Cellular Field
(Chicago White Sox)
0.9461.1280.9360.8790.892
PETCO Park
(San Diego Padres)
0.9220.9190.9810.9560.835
Tropicana Field
(Tampa Bay Rays)
0.9200.9180.9610.8490.932
Safeco Field
(Seattle Mariners)
0.9120.9940.9460.8910.754
Busch Stadium
(St. Louis Cardinals)
0.9120.8701.0430.9570.835
Angel Stadium of Anaheim
(Los Angeles Angels)
0.9070.9820.9890.8550.682
Citi Field
(New York Mets)
0.9000.9410.8890.8920.655
Dodger Stadium
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
0.8990.9730.9300.9840.517
AT&T Park
(San Francisco Giants)
0.8970.6371.0400.9731.386
Marlins Park
(Miami Marlins)
0.8790.7950.9600.8670.967
Minute Maid Park
(Houston Astros)
0.8500.9720.9260.8801.107

 

UMPIRES

If you like, you can compare umpires and how they call strikes, balls, some of them favour home teams, etc. This is also another thing you can take into account.

INJURIES

It is of course important to take into account injuries. I use active rosters numbers, so the numbers from injured players are excluded and two notable missings are Donaldson fot Toronto (injured from 13.April) and Bogaerts for Boston (from 11.April).

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED BET

So, what we have here?

The bookmakers opened the odds at 2.11 on Toronto, but the odds dropped to 2.00 later. We have my betting model, where I have projected, that Boston should be an underdog and not Toronto.

We have Happ, who has very good history against Red Sox players and his advanced ERA-metrics (I used xFIP for this example) are even better than Porcello’s numbers. A lot of bettors will be fooled by ERA numbers, because we have Porcello with much better ERA and on the first look Happ ERA of 4.5 looks bad versus a team, that scores 5.9 runs per game.

But we can not take this 5.9 runs per game for Boston numbers, because they score much less against left handed pitchers (3.3 runs) and they will face one very good left handed pitcher today.

Toronto is an underdog here, despite they will probably have better pitcher on the mound and as we saw, they have slightly better bullpen so far too.

Toronto is also very good scoring home team and they play well against right handed pitchers too. I don’t see any big advantage from Boston in this game and I think we have a good underdog play on Toronto.

I would recommend to take Toronto up to 1.95. (Where to bet?)

Thanksgiving day and whole USA will focus on three NFL games and I will try to give you the best advice with my analysis of the day, despite NFL is not my main sport and this is something, where I still need to learn a lot.

But let’s go to the game, that you have selected and this is Giants at Redskins. The bookmakers opened the spread at around -7.5 and despite, that most people will be with Washington the line moved to -6.5, this is one information, that is interesting.

My projections

According to my projections, Washington should be at -10.5

GameMy SpreadMy Total
New York Giants10.5
50
Washington Redskins-10.5

This is the first year where I project the lines for NFL games, but those projected lines helped me already when I made some bets this season. I also have projected the total at around 50 points, which is little bit bigger than from bookmakers. Bookmakers still have the total at around 45 and this it looks like my model favours the total in this one.

Match up

We have to losing teams and Giants are coming to this game after they beat Kansas in the last game, which was an upset win. Of course, they were +10 point underdog. They beat Kansas at home in low scoring game, but if we check their performance this season, they are not doing well. They score 16.2 points per game, where they make 5.1 yards per play. They also allow 24.7 points per game and 6 yards per play.

On the other side we have Washington, who scores 23.8 points per game in other words, they score 1 TD more than Giants on the other side. But what is interesting here is that Washington also doesn’t have the best defence. They allow even more points than Giants on the other side (26.6). They allow the same yards than Giants on the other side and we have two weak defences and the main difference is made in the offence.

I have projected the result:

Giants 18.72 points
Redskins 27.65

Washington is in a must win situation…

But those are the numbers and I think we should also consider other things here. First of all Washington is in a must win situation after they lost 2 straight games if they want to hope for the playoffs. They lost the last game in New Orleans, where they scored a lot of points but they also faced one of most potent attacks in NFL and today they will face much weaker offence. Not only that they scored more than 30 points in last game, they were also leading by 15 points and they blew up that game. And right now they are coming back home to bounce back after that loss.

Giants on the other side are basically not playing for anything. They stole a win last week and they will be relaxed to play here. Thanksgiving is always a special day to play and I believe they will be motivated. They are also very unpredictable, because they lost to poor 49ers and then the next week they beat Kansas. And if we check the last 8 games, they lost only 3 games by more than a TD. All other games they lost by less points.

However, both teams have the same ATS record (against the spread), which is 4-6.

Trends and other information

When those two teams met in the past the underdog is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games. That means, that the team with plus spread is 10-3. Giants will be an point spread underdog here and they are 6-2 in last 8 meetings against Washington.

Note also that Washington is 1-6 ATS at home in last 7 games and Giants are 5-1 in last 6 games against the teams, that have losing home record.

My conclusion and recommended pick…

The line was opened at -7.5 on Washington but after that the spread dropped to -6.5 despite public will be with Washington and this is something I don’t like. All trends are also against Washington.

It is a big question how will Giants play this game. They definitely gained some momentum in the last game, but then again, they are not consistent. In one game, they beat Denver on the road and then allow 51 points to Rams and they lose a game against 49ers. The question is which version of Giants we will see here.

Motivation is definitely on Washington side, but the question if the motivation is enough.

So, I will go with the three things that I like about Washington here:

Their QB Kirk Cousins is red hot. He played well in the last game, where he  threw 3 touch downs and zero interceptions. He will face very bad defence. Giants defence allowed already 20 touchdowns this season. He is also much better ranked QB than Manning on the other side.

Secondly, Washington will be much more motivated for this game. I don’t like to rely on motivation and this should not be the only reason to bet on the games, but where there are other reasons, then this can only support it.

And there is also my projections for this game, where I favour Washington. So I will just go with this and will go against the trends.

I will stay myself out of this game, because I think that is very tricky one, because we never now which version of Giants we will see, but I will still make a prediction here…

MY RECOMMENDED BET: WASHINGTON REDSKINS -6.5 at Cloudbet

VOTE FOR FRIDAY’S GAME – I WILL ANALYSE IT FOR YOU

After two straight wins with my NHL analysis, where I have much more experience, I decided, that I will try to do my best with NFL on Sunday’s.

I am not experienced NFL bettor and there is a lot of room for learning, but in 2017 I decided, that I will create simple predictive model for my followers and I estimate my own lines every week. After couple of weeks, I even put some of my first NFL bets in my investment project, where I am 11-6-1 on NFL picks this season. It is still small sample size and I don’t make any final conclusion, but I like American football. Not sure if I will bet it regularly, because with small sample size it is much harder to predict those games – at least for me. But all my A Journey members will get formulas and the whole method how to calculate the lines for them selves. This is especially very useful if you are already NFL bettor and need to get the first picture about games with my numbers.

So, here we are with the game between New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. This is the game with most votes (you vote for the game and I analyse for you – check available games for tomorrow and I will analyse for you – yes, it is 100% free).

My projected odds and bookmakers lines

The bookmakers opened San Francisco 49ers as a small favourite or in some cases Giants as a -1 favourite, but since then the odds dropped on NY Giants and right now we already have 49ers as a +3 home team.

CloudbetNitrogensportsBetcoinSportsbet.io
NY Giants-3 (2.02)-2.5 (1.85)-2.5 (1.8)-2.5 (1.80)
SF 49ers3 (1.85)2.5 (2.056)2.5 (2.00)2.5 (2.02)

Based on my model, we have wrong underdog here. I have projected, that San Francisco should be a favourite here for more than one touch down (7.5 points). Because of that, there is a value according to my numbers. But we must include all other information that we have to make a final conclusion. Also the line movement is against me.

New York Giants

Giants are 1-7 this season and they beat only Denver on the road by 23-10. All other games they lost and they are coming to this game after a heavy loss against Rams by 17-51. Based on my numbers, I rank their offence as third worst in whole NFL (30th ranked out of 32 teams). They score 16.1 points per game. They make only 86.8 rushing yards in average and mot of the time they rely on passing from Manning.

However, despite their poor rushing offence, they showed little bit more in this part of the game as Darkwa rushes for 73.5 yards in last 3 games. They will face the worst rushing defence in the league and I believe, that they will try to play something on the ground as well.

Giants defence is second worst in NFL based on my numbers. They allow 25.9 points per game.

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco have worst defence in the league. According to my numbers I rank them as the worst team (32nd ranked) and their weakest part of the game is rushing defence. The good thing is that they will face one of the worst rushing teams in the league – Giants.

But their weakest point is probably their QB. C.J. Beathard is a rookie, who was sacked 14 times in three games. His pass completion is 50% and newly acquired Garoppolo is downgraded to start this game. But let’s check the teams they faced in last 3 games. San Francisco faced Arizona and Dallas at home and Philadelphia on the road. Two of those teams have below league average defences.

Trends and other interesting information

NY Giants are 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings and they are 4-1 ATS in San Francisco.  49ers are  0-10 ATS  when the line is within three of pick vs non-divisional opponent when they are off a SU and ATS loss as a dog. Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 away games vs. a team with a negative home record. Giants are 11-5-2 ATS  following a double-digit loss at home. 49ers are 7-16 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They are also 2-9 ATS at home in last 11 games.

Conclusion

We will have a game between two weak teams this season. Giants are coming to this game after they were destroyed by Rams at home and here is the chance to collect the second win this season.

On the other side we have a weak team and a rookie QB. Their season is practically over and they also don’t have the best record against Giants in the past. My model gives San Francisco better chance to win this game, but the model could be wrong here, because there were some changes in San Francisco and since they started with new rookie QB, they scored only 10 points in each game.

San Francisco main strength in offence could be their rushing, but they will face a team, that has allowed only 4 rushing TD this season. They are in fact among the best in the league. There are only few teams, that allowed 3 rushing TD this season. Giants are much weaker in pass defence, when it comes to allowing TD. They allowed 18 pass TD this season and with one game less, only Jets allow more passing TD. They are vulnerable team against good passing teams. The good thing for them is that 49ers doesn’t have good passing attack.

But if we check the attacks, Giants scored only 2 TD’s trough the ground (rush) and 12 TD’s through the air. I believe that they will try to play trough the air today as well.

I think this is not the best match up for 49ers here. They have a rookie QB and they scored most of their touchdowns on the ground trough rushing. The problem is that they will face solid rush defence when it comes to TD’s.

Giants are coming to this game after a huge loss and they are good bounce back team in this situation. They also have good record playing against 49ers and I think it will be a tough game for 49ers. It looks like that Giants still have much power with Manning and their pass offence, than 49ers on the other side.

I will stay away from this game as I think there is too much other information against the model and I also don’t like to go against he numbers. But based on the information that I have I would take Giants -2.5.

MY RECOMMENDED PLAY: NY GIANTS -2.5 at Nitrogensports

Check my daily projected lines for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB here or let me show you how you calculate your own lines here.