MLB Sports Betting Picks based on MLB betting model – Rays (Glasnow) vs Dodgers (Kershaw) Game 1
Here is my MLB sports betting model prediction and estimated win%:
Tampa Bay Rays will start with Glasnow on the mound who is 7-2, ERA 4.23, Whip 1.17 this season. On the other side we have lefty Kershaw, who is 8-3 with ERA 2.44 and Whip 0.87.
Bookmakers opened the odds at around 1.60 on Dodgers and they didn’t change them much since the opening. My betting model slightly gives small value to Tampa bay Rays in this game, but based on my betting criteria, there is still not enough value with Tampa Bay to pull a trigger.
The biggest discrepancy between my projected numbers and bookmakers odds is in 1st5 inning, where I think +149 on Tampa is little bit too much. Glasnow’s ERA is 4.23 but this is of course not whole story. His K/9 ratio is 10.94 and he has very solid SIERA and FiP numbers. This is where some bettors could underestimate him and if we take into account that Kershaw is not a good playoff pitcher (Kershaw’s career postseason ERA (4.31) compared to career regular-season ERA (2.43)) I think that there is a small value with Rays first half.
Anyway, I would still like to see little bit bigger value (read: better odds) before I would make a bet on Rays 1st5. This season I was little bit more selective and I am taking only adjk 1.80 value bets.
MLB Betting Season Record 2020
63-47, +15.20 Units, Yield (ROI): +10.14%
I hope my numbers will help you to make better betting decision today.
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