Offensive rankings:

  • OFF+ 100 = league average
  • If OFF+ > 100 = better than league average
Rank Team OFF+
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 133
2 Washington Capitals 123
3 Toronto Maple Leafs 117
4 Colorado Avalanche 116
5 Pittsburgh Penguins 116
6 Columbus Blue Jackets 110
7 Winnipeg Jets 110
8 Montreal Canadiens 109
9 San Jose Sharks 109
10 Calgary Flames 107
11 Ottawa Senators 105
12 Minnesota Wild 103
13 New York Islanders 100
14 Nashville Predators 99
15 Vegas Golden Knights 99
16 St Louis Blues 97
17 Florida Panthers 97
18 Vancouver Canucks 97
19 Buffalo Sabres 97
20 Philadelphia Flyers 96
21 New Jersey Devils 93
22 Edmonton Oilers 93
23 Dallas Stars 91
24 New York Rangers 91
25 Detroit Red Wings 90
26 Anaheim Ducks 89
27 Carolina Hurricanes 88
28 Chicago Blackhawks 88
29 Boston Bruins 87
30 Arizona Coyotes 78
31 Los Angeles Kings 72

Defensive rankings:

  • DEF+ 100 = league average
  • If DEF+ < 100 = better than league average
Rank Team DEF+
1 Nashville Predators 79
2 Boston Bruins 81
3 Calgary Flames 90
4 Edmonton Oilers 90
5 Anaheim Ducks 91
6 New York Islanders 92
7 Toronto Maple Leafs 92
8 Minnesota Wild 93
9 Dallas Stars 94
10 Buffalo Sabres 94
11 Arizona Coyotes 95
12 Los Angeles Kings 96
13 Winnipeg Jets 97
14 Washington Capitals 97
15 Tampa Bay Lightning 97
16 Detroit Red Wings 99
17 Pittsburgh Penguins 100
18 Colorado Avalanche 101
19 Carolina Hurricanes 101
20 New York Rangers 101
21 Vegas Golden Knights 103
22 San Jose Sharks 103
23 Vancouver Canucks 105
24 New Jersey Devils 106
25 Montreal Canadiens 106
26 Columbus Blue Jackets 108
27 Florida Panthers 113
28 Philadelphia Flyers 114
29 St Louis Blues 118
30 Chicago Blackhawks 120
31 Ottawa Senators 123

 

Learn how to make rankings and how to create betting models!


Bet at 5dimes

In 2017 I have created betting model for basketball and after 1373 bets we made a profit of close to 70 units. In other words, $100 bettor made $7000 of profit in last 2 seasons. And more than 1000 bets is not small sample size anymore. And what I am most happy at this moment, is that since I started tracking CLV numbers, we beat the line in more than 80% and CLV is more than +4%.

The beauty of the model is simplicity. Anyone can use it, anyone can implement for any league that he wants and I saw some great results from my members, who have this model, also in some other sports (rugby, handball).

So, I was thinking how to take the ideas from basketball betting model and use it for NFL betting.

NFL is a new sport for me and I wanted to give some simple betting model to my members, so they can project the numbers before they bet. It still amazing how many people bet without numbers and without using any statistics at all. But more and more people are aware that betting without numbers will not make any profit on the long run.

After all, lines, spreads, totals, odds and handicaps are nothing else than some kind of probabilities turned into the numbers. And those numbers directly represent the prices on betting market, that you pay (bet) at the end. So, it is crucial to have statistical method, that will estimate those prices even before bookmakers.

This is not rocket science. It is basic concept of making money. You need to know the price before you buy. You need to know if you can sell it later (so you can make profit) for a bigger price. In sports betting that means, that when you see Green Bay Packers -7, you need to know if this is good spread to bet or not. You need to know what is the last spread that you are willing to take Green Bay Packers (in this case).

So, I wanted to get those spreads and totals before bookmakers open their lines.

And this is how I combined my basketball model with NFL stats. It gives me my projected (or expected) lines and totals. Then I simply compare those spreads/totals with bookmakers numbers.

When I see big enough difference between my numbers and their numbers, I simply make a bet.

Because of simplicity and because of very small number of games in one season, I look for big difference and I bet 1 unit per game on each game.

After 11 Weeks the results are:

35 -17, +16.64 units (check all bets here)

Week 12 bets:

  • EAGLES -6

  • JETS/PATS – Over 46.5

The question is… can this continue?

From my perspective I simply used the ideas of my basketball betting model and put it here with some adjustments. So, at the end of the day, I get my projections (spreads/totals) before I make final betting decisions. And I am not even NFL bettor. I think this is much more powerful to those who bet NFL on a regular basis, so they get the numbers before placing bets.

The only concern is CLV number so far. But I would also say, that NFL market is very special, because a lot of people with zero betting knowledge (and a lot of NFL “sports fan knowledge”), who don’t use any statistics, analytics or any other mathematical/statistical method bet huge amount of money. It is very small sample size of games and a many people are simply gambling. So, the market is definitely little bit different than NHL or MLB betting market.

However, I will try to improve this betting model in the future and will track my progress to see where we can improve it. I will keep informing bettors what is important to win and on what they should focus, when they bet NFL.

And the last, but not the least important thing is the bookmaker. I see many US bettors who bet online on all kind of unknown/exotic bookmakers. One of the best bookmakers for NFL and also for all my basketball bets with the best odds and with the biggest accepted bets is 5Dimes. Yes, they don’t have the best looking site. Yes, you will need to go trough small procedure when you open account, but after that… this is definitely one of the best bookmakers sites for US bettors at this moment.

Cheers and good luck in Week 12

MB

Check my premium features

  • RECORD 2018: 26-8, +17.03 Units (all plays 1 unit per game)
  • BTL: 51.52%, CLV: +1.09%

Jaguars -5
Patriots/Bears – Over 49.5

 

  • RECORD 2018: 25-8, +12.29 Units (all plays 1 unit per game)
  • BTL: 57.14%, CLV: +1.85%

Eagles -3
Chargers -1
Buccaneers/Falcons – Over 57.5
Chiefs/Patriots – Over 59
49ers/Packers – Over 46.5

Week 1: 7 – 2 +4.88
Week 2: 3 – 0 +2.74
Week 3: 4 – 2 +1.80
Week 4: 3 – 1 +1.98

OVERALL: 17-5, +11.4 Units, CLV: +1.72%, BTL: 57.14%

WEEK 5 Bets:

Colts / Patriots – Over 51.5
New England Patriots -10.5
Ravens / Browns Under 47
Jaguars +3
Jaguars / Chiefs – Over 49
Falcons / Steelers – Over 57
Cowboys / Texans – Over 45.5

 

Saturday, September 22, 2018

  • MLB baseball – NYM/WSH Over 8 @2.04 (1 Units)
  • MLB baseball – St Louis (Wainwright) @1.61 (1.08 Units)
  • MLB baseball – Tampa Bay (Glasnow) @1.74 (1.44 Units)
  • MLB baseball – Seattle (Gonzales) @2.04 (1.26 Units)
  • MLB baseball – White Sox (Giolito) @2.83 (2 Units)


Bet at 5dimes

Atlanta (Sanchez) -114 (2 Units)

Giants lost 10 straight games now and they know that their season is over. Couple of injured players and I think they are not in a good position now. Atlanta on the other side is playing well, winning 5 out of 6 games and they will start with Sanchez on the mound, who has been very consistent so far. ERA 3.17 to the season and winning record 6-5. On the other side Giants will start with Holland, left handed pitcher, with ERA of 3.78, but this could be good situation for Atlanta today. They are one of the best hitting teams versus lefties this season and despite Holland has ERA of 1.96 in last 3 games, this is not true picture about his pitching, because he also walked 11 hitters in last 3 games (18 innings). Better pitcher, better team and good situational match up for Braves. I am taking Atlanta.

Milwaukee (Anderson) +129 (1.02 Units)

Milwaukee Brewers will start with Anderson and I don’t give them any pitching advantage here against Cubs, because I rank Hendricks little bit higher. But later in the game, in last innings I give advantage to Milwaukee Brewers bullpen. They have one of the best bullpens this season. According to my projections, this is 50-50 game and because of that I am taking Milwaukee.

Kansas (Skoglund) +111 (1.02 Units)

Two teams, that are not playing for anything anymore and we will have two left handed pitchers on the mound. At the first look White Sox have better pitcher, if we focus on ERA, but as I said many times, ERA is not the best future predictor and according to my rankings, I think we have pretty same pitchers here. Rodon, who will pitch for White Sox, posted ERA of 3.11, but he also walked 25 batters in 50 road innings. Kansas rested Perez and Salvador yesterday and they are also plying better right now, than White Sox. They won 8 out of last 12 games, while White Sox are not playing that well at this moment, losing 7 straight. Bookmakers have Royals as a small underdog and I give them 52.76% f chance in this game.

San Diego (Lucchesi) +149 (1.57 Units)

This is pure value play. No the play, where I would give better chance to San Diego, but value play based on the difference between my projections and bookmakers odds. We have two pitchers and two bullpens, where I give small advantage to San Diego. Lucchesi, who will play for San Diego has been very solid this season and I rank him higher than Leblanc on the other side. Seattle bullpen is 8th ranked, but San Diego bullpen is slightly better. Despite Seattle has better and more talented hitting team, I have projected that this game is close to 50-50 and because we got some very solid odds on Padres, I took San Diego here.

ARI/COL Under 10 -118 (1 Units)

We have two very good pitchers on the mound today. For me Gray is the best Colorado pitcher and he will face Arizona, who is not that good hitting team against right handed pitchers. They also score little bit less on the road. On the other side Colorado is very solid hitting team against lefties, but they will face a pitcher who is 8-3 against them. But if we ignore those information and stick to my betting model, I have projected, that this total should be at around 8. Bookmakers have set total at 10 and because of that I think we have a value with under play here.

  • Recommended bookmaker – Sign up: 5Dimes
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Bet at 5dimes

Washington (Fedde) +105 (1.28 Units)

Nationals don’t have the best season, but they are playing well in this series. They beat Cubs in first two games and I think they can go for a sweep here. First of all, Montgomery is a pitcher, that just below league average based on my rankings and I don’t see any big advantage here for the Cubs. Fedde on the other side is 1-3 this season, but his ERA of 6.00 this is season doesn’t represent his true ability. I have him around league average so far and if we add both bullpens, I give even small advantage to Nationals here. Note also, that Washington score 5.0 runs per game versus lefties and I have them as 7th best hitting team versus lefties. Based on my projections, Washington should be at at around -124. Bet at 5Dimes.

Milwaukee (Davies) -130 (2 Units)

I like Bumgarner, but San Francisco is basically out for the season and he has average season so far. They traded Mccutchen to the Yankees and they have couple of important players injured (Posey, Sandoval, Belt is ?). On the other side Milwaukee Brewers are a playoff team and they are pushing right now. I give small advantage to Bumgarner here, but with one of the best bullpens in the league by Milwaukee, plus better overall team, I think they beat San Francisco again. Bet at 5Dimes.

LA Dodgers (Hill) -120 (1.38 Units)

After yesterday loss in Colorado, I think Dodgers can bounce back. They will have Hill on the mound, who is 0-4 versus Colorado, but 4 games don’t tell us anything. He is better overall pitcher than Anderson on the other side and note also, that Anderson allowed 4 home runs in last 3 games and finished with last 3 games overall ERA of 9.49. Not my favourite play today, but I think Dodgers can bounce back. Bet at 5Dimes.

Atlanta (Toussaint) +129 (1.13 Units)

Never easy to take a bet against Ray, but he will face one of the best hitting teams versus left handed pitchers. With Toussaint on the mound, pretty unknown pitcher also bookmakers set very careful odds. Toussiant pitched pretty well in his couple of innings this season and according to my projections, this game is 50%-50%. Bet at 5Dimes.

Detroit (Fulmer) 115 (2 Units)

I was on every single game in this series on Detroit. I think they are simply underrated here and I won a bet on Detroit +144 two days ago and I won a bet yesterday on Detroit +147. Today bookmakers are little bit more careful with the odds, but we still get Detroit for plus odds and I think they should be small favourites here. I don’t see any pitching advantage here and when it comes to hitting, Detroit is pretty hot right now. I have them as 4th best hitting team in last 30 days.  Bet at 5Dimes.

Good Luck and I recommend as always…

– Do Your Own Research Before You Make Bets – Never Blindly Follow Anyone! –

COLORADO (Gray) +165

  • Bookmakers line: +165 (2.65)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +145 (2.45)
Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies will play a wild card game and the bookmakers set the odds around +155 on Colorado, the odds dropped at the start and right now, when the game is close to start the odds went up again and there is a small value with Colorado. At least based on my model.
Colorado will start with Gray, who won 2 of last 3 games versus Arizona and he pitched really well in last couple of games. ERA 2.12, 20 strike outs in last 17 innings and i think he is the right pitcher for this game. Not only, that he pitched well twice this season in Arizona, he also struck 10 Arizona hitters in those two games on the road.
Greinke in the other has a very good season with the record of 17-7, but he also lost 2 out of last 3 games versus Colorado and in last couple of games he was not that sharp (last 3 games ERA 5.62). Of course, I believe he will be at his best, but still I don’t see such a big difference between today’s starters. I rank them both pretty equally.
When we talk about the hitting, Colorado scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Arizona scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Colorado OBP 0.335, Arizona 0.326. Colorado.
When we talk about bullpens, I also rank both bullpens pretty same.
What I want to say is that we have pretty equal match up everywhere and I think this game could be really close one. There is no speculations and both teams will give their 100% effort. And if we talk about injuries, Arizona is still missing Ahmed, Owings and couple of other players, while Colorado doesn’t have any important injuries.
I still think, that Arizona should be favourite here, but I still give more chances to Colorado, than bookmakers.
Play Colorado (Gray)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Nola) +155

Los Angeles Dodgers lost yesterday against Philadelphia with Kershaw on the mound. They are in playoffs and if we check their results, they are not playing well. In last 20 games, they won only 5 of them.
Philadelphia on the other side is a young team, they are playing for themselves and are showing some solid effort recently (10-10 in lat 20 games).
Philadelphia will start with Nola, who 11-10 to the season with ERA of 3.60. At home he has winning record (8-4) with ERA of 3.01, which is pretty good if we know, that his team is one of the worst in the league.
Dodgers on the other side will start with Darvish, who is 9-12 to the season and in last 3 games has ERA of 6.28 and lost 2 of them.
Public will be on Dodgers side today and Philadelphia is nice underdog again, but the way how those two teams play right now and the pitching match up we have today, I think Philadelphia can surprise us again.
Play Philadelphia

NY METS (Lugo) +128

Miami and the Mets will start second game after huge win yesterday by Miami. They beat Mets by 13-1 and they made 19 hits, which is great.
Today I think we can see little bit different picture. Mets will start with Lugo (6-5 to the season), who has ERA of 5.29 and if we focus only on this numbers (which is wrong), Lugo doesn’t look good. But he is 3-0 against Miami in his career (2017 and 2016) and his SIERA numbers are better than from Despaigne on the other side, who will start for Miami.
Despaigne will be on the mound for Miami and he pitched 5 games this season and he walked more than struck out. In 25 inning he walked 16 hitters and this is one of the chances for Mets.
I have projected, that Mets should be small favourite here and we have them as an underdog.
Play Mets

ATLANTA BRAVES (Gohara) +188

Max Scherzer and Gohara played the same game one week ago. Atlanta beat Washington by 8-2 and they scored 7 runs against him. That was second loss for him this season in last three games against Atlanta. Atlanta hitters have some solid numbers against him in 2017.
Gohara on the other side is a new pitcher, who didn’t pitch much this season. He lost one game against Texas and he won that one against Washington. In 10 innings pitched he struck out 12 hitters.
Washington is still playing without their best player – Harper and right now they score 2.7 runs/game (last 7). On the other side score 5 runs per game (lat 7 games).
Max Scherzer is still better pitcher – no doubt, but based on current odds, that are offered by bookmakers I think we have a nice value on Atlanta. After all they played the same game with same pitchers on the mound one week ago and Atlanta beat Washington by 8-2. That game was in Washington. Today, they will play in Atlanta.
Play Atlanta Braves