In 2017 I have created betting model for basketball and after 1373 bets we made a profit of close to 70 units. In other words, $100 bettor made $7000 of profit in last 2 seasons. And more than 1000 bets is not small sample size anymore. And what I am most happy at this moment, is that since I started tracking CLV numbers, we beat the line in more than 80% and CLV is more than +4%.

The beauty of the model is simplicity. Anyone can use it, anyone can implement for any league that he wants and I saw some great results from my members, who have this model, also in some other sports (rugby, handball).

So, I was thinking how to take the ideas from basketball betting model and use it for NFL betting.

NFL is a new sport for me and I wanted to give some simple betting model to my members, so they can project the numbers before they bet. It still amazing how many people bet without numbers and without using any statistics at all. But more and more people are aware that betting without numbers will not make any profit on the long run.

After all, lines, spreads, totals, odds and handicaps are nothing else than some kind of probabilities turned into the numbers. And those numbers directly represent the prices on betting market, that you pay (bet) at the end. So, it is crucial to have statistical method, that will estimate those prices even before bookmakers.

This is not rocket science. It is basic concept of making money. You need to know the price before you buy. You need to know if you can sell it later (so you can make profit) for a bigger price. In sports betting that means, that when you see Green Bay Packers -7, you need to know if this is good spread to bet or not. You need to know what is the last spread that you are willing to take Green Bay Packers (in this case).

So, I wanted to get those spreads and totals before bookmakers open their lines.

And this is how I combined my basketball model with NFL stats. It gives me my projected (or expected) lines and totals. Then I simply compare those spreads/totals with bookmakers numbers.

When I see big enough difference between my numbers and their numbers, I simply make a bet.

Because of simplicity and because of very small number of games in one season, I look for big difference and I bet 1 unit per game on each game.

After 11 Weeks the results are:

35 -17, +16.64 units (check all bets here)

Week 12 bets:

  • EAGLES -6

  • JETS/PATS – Over 46.5

The question is… can this continue?

From my perspective I simply used the ideas of my basketball betting model and put it here with some adjustments. So, at the end of the day, I get my projections (spreads/totals) before I make final betting decisions. And I am not even NFL bettor. I think this is much more powerful to those who bet NFL on a regular basis, so they get the numbers before placing bets.

The only concern is CLV number so far. But I would also say, that NFL market is very special, because a lot of people with zero betting knowledge (and a lot of NFL “sports fan knowledge”), who don’t use any statistics, analytics or any other mathematical/statistical method bet huge amount of money. It is very small sample size of games and a many people are simply gambling. So, the market is definitely little bit different than NHL or MLB betting market.

However, I will try to improve this betting model in the future and will track my progress to see where we can improve it. I will keep informing bettors what is important to win and on what they should focus, when they bet NFL.

And the last, but not the least important thing is the bookmaker. I see many US bettors who bet online on all kind of unknown/exotic bookmakers. One of the best bookmakers for NFL and also for all my basketball bets with the best odds and with the biggest accepted bets is 5Dimes. Yes, they don’t have the best looking site. Yes, you will need to go trough small procedure when you open account, but after that… this is definitely one of the best bookmakers sites for US bettors at this moment.

Cheers and good luck in Week 12

MB

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Philadelphia (Pivetta) 1.53 / -189

Philadelphia Phillies lost yesterday and they will definitely try to bounce back after a loss. And I see nice chances for them with some +EV compared to bookmakers odds. They will start with Nick Pivetta, who is 6-9 to the season with the ERA of 4.40, but if we check his performance, he is pitching much better and we can expect the ERA will go down. I rank him much higher than league average pitcher, he struck out 152 batters in 124 innings this season and he has been also very hot lately (ERA 1.50, whip 0.877) in last couple of starts. Mets on the other side will start with Vargas, left handed pitcher, who has ERA of 8.10 and his pitching is not great at all. All other ERA metrics are against him (SIERA 4.95). So, I think that Philadelphia will have huge pitching advantage today and one another bad thing for Mets is that they have one of the worst bullpen in the league (I rank their bullpen #29 out of 30 teams). Based on my projections, I give Philadelphia 69.51% of chance to win this game.


Bet at 5dimes

UNDERDOG:

Milwaukee (Chacin) 2.07 / +107

Milwaukee Brewers lost yesterday, but I think we have two very good teams this season and honestly we didn’t expect, that Milwaukee will be a winning team in August, but it looks like that both teams will fight for playoffs this season. Milwaukee will start with Chacin and on the other side St Louis will start with Gant. In this pitching match up, I don’t see any advantage, I rank both pitchers close to league average. But I think that Milwaukee will have the advantage in the second part of the game. Their bullpen is among the best in the league (#5 ranked based on my rankings) and St Louis bullpen is below league average (#25). The big question for Milwaukee are still Thames and Braun if they will play or not, but I think that this will be close game and bullpen could be crucial later in the game. Note that there is just tiny value with Milwaukee and it depends on the odds you get from your bookmaker.

%ALT_TXT%%

TOTAL:

Baltimore / Cleveland – Over 9

Cleveland ballpark is one of the most hitters friendly ballparks this season. And if we check Indians at home, they also score 5.6 runs per game. Cleveland will start with Clevinger, who holds ERA 3.38 (home 4.01). He has been very solid this season and I rank him just little bit above league average pitcher. On the other side Ramirez will play for Baltimore and his ERA is above 6 and above 10 in last 3 starts, but as I said many times ERA is not good future predictor and I am not betting on this total because he has ERA above 6. I rank him below league average and his realistic ERA should be around 4.70. So we have two close to league average pitchers in a hitters friendly ballpark this season and what is interesting, but teams are hitting well lately. In last 30 days I rank both teams in terms of hitting in top 10. Note also, that Baltimore has one of the worst bullpen in the league and after two low scoring games in Cleveland I expect more runs today. I especially expect from Cleveland to score more and I also expect from Baltimore to score couple of runs.

Cloudbet-2017

Quick basics

  • Favourites: plays on teams/outcomes, where bookmakers opinion is that the outcome has more than 50% of chance to win. Please understand, that the chance of winning is totally different than, expected value.
  • Underdogs: Bets on the outcomes with +EV, but based on bookmakers opinion we have less than 50% of chance to win a bet/outcome. Underdog bets are recommended for advanced players with strong money managements.
  • Totals: Betting on total runs/goals/points
  • CLV = closing line value is the most important indicator if you will be a long term winner or not. According to Pinnacle (which is the sharpest bookmaker in the world): “The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.”
  • Betting projection = my estimated winning percentage turned into the numbers (odds). I project winning percentage for every single game and then I look at the games, where my odds are different than bookmakers odds. I use statistics and my betting models. I reveal betting models in A Journey Betting Course.

​Hi,

when it comes to baseball most bettors will take a look on ERA, BA and RUNS scored per game. But those numbers are not good future predictors and can fool an average baseball bettor. Here are couple of Sunday’s games, that are very interesting:

Colorado (Bettis) at Miami (Smith)

Team Pitcher Hand SIERA xFIP ERA
Rockies Chad Bettis R 4.92 4.64 2.4
Marlins Caleb Smith L 4 4.16 5.82

This game is definitely one of the first you can take a deeper look on. Colorado will face Marlins and Miami just changed their pitchers to start Dan Straily on Monday. They will start with Caleb Smith on Sunday and on the first look Colorado will have huge pitching advantage, because their pitcher Bettis has much better ERA. But as I said many times, ERA is not the best future predictor for baseball games and we need to take a look on other important factors and ERA estimators. And we see, that Smith has better numbers here. I would say, that Bettis numbers are poor and Smith numbers are average or slightly below average. Most bettors will be fooled with ERA numbers in this game I believe, but if we compare pitchers in this game, then I would not give any advantage to Colorado.

Arizona (Ray) @ Washington (Gonzalez)

Team Pitcher Hand SIERA xFIP ERA
Diamondbacks Robbie Ray L 3.45 3.49 5.13
Nationals Gio Gonzalez L 4 3.86 3.04

The second game that is very interesting is between Arizona and Washington. Gonzalez has much better ERA, but if we compare other ERA estimators, then we see that Arizona will have the advantage. Note also, that this is a game with two left handed pitchers. Arizona scores 5.4 runs per game against lefties and Washington only 3.6 with very bad BA of 0.197. I rank Arizona as 8th best versus LHP and Washington as 28th vs LHP. But one interesting about Ray is that he lost all games in his career against Washington (0-4, ERA 6.65).

Seattle (Gonzales) @ Cleveland (Tomlin)

Team Pitcher Hand SIERA xFIP ERA
Mariners Marco Gonzales L 2.81 2.41 5.56
Indians Josh Tomlin R 5.56 6.2 10.03

The bookmakers opened this game close to even. They still give Cleveland better chances, but Seattle is only a small underdog of 2.06 (+106) here. And I completely agree with them. An average bettor will probably jump on Cleveland at home for a very good price, but let’s check this interesting game. We have both pitchers with high ERA. But we have also one pitcher, who has much better other two numbers and I definitely give pitching advantage to Seattle here. Gonzales struck out 27 hitters in 22 games. Tomlin on the other side struck out 7 batters in 11 innings and what is even more interesting is that he already allowed 8 home runs. Second thing that is very interesting, is Tomlin’s record versus Seattle. He is 5-1 against Seattle with ERA of 3.74 and his team is 6-1. This is pretty good record, right? And an average bettor, who wants to bet on this game will take Tomlin, because he has very good record versus Seattle. But most bettors will also probably miss one very important thing. He played only 2 games versus Seattle in last 2 seasons and he allowed 17 hits, 6 runs in 11 innings. The other games were 2014 or older. Seattle is totally different team since 2014. And if we go deeper, we can check Tomlin’s numbers against current Seattle lineup. They combined 76 at bats, batting average of .329, 13 extra bases hits and 3 home runs. Three key players from Seattle – Cano, Seager and Cruz have very good numbers agaisnt Tomlin. Cano 2 home runs, BA 0.400 in 20 at-bats, Seager has 5 extra bases hits and batting average of 0.429 in 14 at bats and Cruz has a home run in 10 at bats versus Tomlin. Take into account that Cleveland scores only 3.3 runs versus lefties with batting average of 0.170.

Those are three interesting games for Sunday and I recommend, that you make an extra research. I just wanted to show you how you can look at games from a different perspective and especially you should not focus on mainstream numbers, that you get on ESPN.

Here are the projections for the rest of Saturday games…

DO YOU WANT TO LEARN how I project my own lines and get lifetime access to all my videos?

I can show you all this in my A Journey betting course (set of 42 videos and more coming). I already projected my odds for all Sunday’s MLB baseball games and I reveal my betting models in A Journey betting course. Don’t miss 30% OFF – still 2 days left for this special offer:

Thanks for reading my content and I wish you good luck whatever you bet.

MB, Underdogchance.com

I will show you today, how you can analyse baseball games and we will take a game between Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays as an example.

Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will play the first game of a 3 game series in Canada and both teams had a day off yesterday. Boston Red Sox will start with Rick Porcello, right handed pitcher, who is 4-0 to the season with ERA of 1.40, whip 0.818 and 23/1 K/BB rate in 25 innings. Toronto Blue Jays on the other side will start with J.A. Happ, let handed pitcher, who is 3-1 to the season with ERA of 4.50, whip 1.273 and 31/7 K/BB rate in 22 innings so fart this season.

Boston is 17-4 to the season and they have an amazing start so far. They score 5.9 runs per game and two of four losses came in last two games. They lost two straight games in Oakland.

Toronto Blue Jays on the other side is 13-8 to the season and they score 5.5 runs per game. They are coming home after two big losses against Yankees on the road. Yankees won 3 out of 4 games in this series and in the last two games, they outscored Blue Jays by 14-2 in runs.

Those are just basic information that we can find anywhere and of course, this is not enough to make a final bet.

So, let’s start with couple of different approaches. Sports handicappers make bets on a different ways. Some bettors will make bets just based on their gut feeling, some bettors will just analyse line movement, some bettors will use strictly statics bets and some will combine all together. We have different methods, we have different styles and if your method is making a profit for you, this is ok.

I use my betting model to estimate my winning percentages. I turn those winning percentages into the odds and then I compare my odds with the bookmakers odds. My betting models are the heart of my sports betting decisions. But before we go to my projected odds on this game, let’s start with the odds. The odds are the key. Betting is not about finding the winners, but about finding the value. In other words it is about finding the right price in a sports betting market. And if you can get better price than market, then you are doing well. But to know what is a good price we need to research games and estimate our own odds somehow.

So, let’s research this game game as a sports bettors, not as a sports fans.

OPENING ODDS AND MOVEMENT

The first thing you can do is to check the opening lines or the odds if you like. There are couple of free sites, that share this information. Oddsportal and SBR are two of them.

I will take a look at Pinnacle sports odds. Pinnacle is probably the sharpest bookmaker in the world and what kind of information you get if you check the lines?

First (BOOKMAKERS OPINION) – when Pinnacle open the lines, you get their first opinion on this game. Of course this is not final, because they will later move the line because of betting action and possibly also because of some other information that they will get later (injuries, lineups,…). But let’s check their opening odds:

TORONTO – 2.11 (+111)

BOSTON – 1.83 (-120)

We can say, that this is bookmakers opinion on this game. We can easily turn those odds into percentages to see how much chances they give to home and away team. If we divide 1/2.11 and 1/1.83 we get implied probabilities. They added some margins this is why when you sum both numbers you will not get 1, but little bit bigger number:

1.83 0.5464480874
2.11 0.4739336493
SUM 1.020381737

If we cheat little bit, we can get probabilities on this game:

ODDS Prob. (Margins) Probability
1.83 0.5464480874 0.5362572191
2.11 0.4739336493 0.4637427809
SUM 1.020381737 1

 

I simply take out the margins (juice): (1.020381737 – 1)/2

So, what kind of information you get with opening odds?

Bookmakers gave 53.63% of chance to Boston and 46.37% of chance to Toronto. In other words if they repeat this game a lot of times, bookmakers think, that Boston will win around 54 times out of 100 and Toronto 46 times out of 100.

Second (Bettors opinion) – After the opening odds we usually see some line movement and usually professional bettors opinion is little bit different then bookmakers opinion:

04/23 11:10 PM 1.93 2.00
04/23 09:38 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:37 PM 1.91 2.02
04/23 09:26 PM 1.89 2.04
04/23 09:25 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:24 PM 1.86 2.07
04/23 09:23 PM 1.87 2.06
04/23 02:41 PM 1.85 2.08
04/23 01:56 PM 1.83 2.11

The initial line movement shows, that there was an action on Toronto and bettors tried to get better price here. The odds started dropping later too. But initial line movement is something that we like to see. Note also, that sometimes such movement can be done intentionally too, because of better price later. But in general, initial line movement show that there is some action on Toronto. Bookmakers will move the line because of sharp bettors action. And we as a bettors we like to be on sharp side, not on public side.

Third (public opinion) – After bookmakers open the lines and move the line, public will later jump and there will probably be some other movement couple of hours before game starts.

What I wanted to show you here is that you can always check what is bookmakers opinion on games in terms of probability and what are initial line movements. If you estimate your chances and if bookmakers have the chance of around 55% on one team and you think or estimate your own odds on this team at around 95%, then something is wrong. Bookmakers opinions are pretty good and we are looking for games, where we think that their probabilities should be little bit lower or little bit bigger.

So, bookmakers gave Boston better chance, but the odds dropped after one hour on Toronto from 2.11 to 2.08 an later to 2.00. The question is will those odds go to 1.95 or will those odds go back to 2.05. This is the market and you can try to speculate and get the best price. And if your price will be better than it is a closing line, then you will bet closing line. Pinnacle says, that if you can beat the closing line constantly, this is better indicator of who is a winning bettor than a profit. And if you beat the closing line, but you still didn’t make a profit, you were unlucky.

BETTING MODEL, VALUE AND MY WINNING PERCENTAGES

There are different approaches and different betting styles, some bettors will say, that only line movement is important, some other will say, that only statistics/betting models is important and a lot of bettors will say, that we don’t need to use statistics and analytics and they have special gift for betting. If we exclude the last type of betting, because I unfortunately don’t have super-human betting power and I believe most of you also don’t have this power, we need to to work and research games. And one thing is for sure:

One baseball game is an event, where two possible outcomes are possible. Home team win and away team win.

I have projected my winning percentages for both teams. How, You can learn here.

I have projected that Toronto Blue Jay should have 58.7% of chance to win this game and Boston Red Sox only 41.30% of chance. If the model is correct somehow, I see that I give Toronto more than 50% of chance, while bookmakers give them less than 50% of chance.

My fair odds on Toronto are set at 1.70 and this is basically direct price, that I expect. Or in other words, if my trust the model, I would expect, that I make a profit of $70 for my risked $100 if I bet and win with Toronto.

But we saw, that bookmakers offer me the odds of around 2.00 at this moment. They are willing to pay me more than I would expect. If I bet $100 on Toronto, I will make a profit of $100. Because of that I have a value on Toronto Blue Jays. Of course, if I would be quicker and if I would take Toronto earlier (my betting model is not dependent on line movement), I would get even better price. Some better or smarter bettors were faster and take Toronto for much better price. But what I like here is that the initial line movement and my betting model are on the same side.

TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE GAME

After we have information about the odds and after you have estimated your own winning percentages, we can make an extra analysis. I usually don’t like to write analysis, because if you want to write good and unique analysis, you need at least 45 minutes. Bettors then read this analysis and from delivering to final bets we lose couple of hours. And let’s check what can happen if you are 2 hours too late:

Because of writing analysis we probably lose the opening price of 2.11, and let’s say, that you I write analysis and I get the price of 2.06 and you get this analysis 2 hours later. Yes, this is exactly this example

04/23 11:10 PM 1.93 2.00 (get analysis)
04/23 09:38 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:37 PM 1.91 2.02
04/23 09:26 PM 1.89 2.04
04/23 09:25 PM 1.88 2.05
04/23 09:24 PM 1.86 2.07
04/23 09:23 PM 1.87 2.06 (write analysis)
04/23 02:41 PM 1.85 2.08
04/23 01:56 PM 1.83 2.11 (opening price)

What that means in reality if you constantly get 2.00 instead of 2.06 on 1000 bets? And in Toronto vs Boston game we are talking about only 2 hours later.

Win% W L Odds 2 (+100) Odds 2.06 (+106)
47.50% 475 525 -50 -21.5
48.00% 480 520 -40 -11.2
48.50% 485 515 -30 -0.9
49.00% 490 510 -20 9.4
49.50% 495 505 -10 19.7
50.00% 500 500 0 30
50.50% 505 495 10 40.3
51.00% 510 490 20 50.6
51.50% 515 485 30 60.9
52.00% 520 480 40 71.2

In the best case (52% winning percentage) you can lose 31.2 units of profit on the long run, just because you didn’t make your own bets at the right time, but you read and follow other people’s picks. With $100 per unit, this is loss of $3120, just because of 2 hours late. Let’s go further. Betting $100 per game usually requires bankroll of $10.000, right? And losing $3120 on initial bankroll of $10,000 just because you are always too late, is little bit to much, isn’t it? Yes, of course every game is a different case and we can not use this example and implement it on every single baseball game, but I wanted to show you how much money you can lose because of writing and reading analysis of other people, instead of making your own.

But let’s get back to analysis of this game:

STARTING PITCHERS

The most important players in a baseball game are pitchers and because of them the odds changing on a daily basis, despite teams will play 3-4 games in a row against the same team.

Starting pitchers will start the game, which is 9 innings long (if we exclude extra innings if they happen). A lot of bettors will focus on ERA, which is not the best indicator of how good pitcher is, so I will show you couple of other things to check.

J.A. Happ is a lefty pitcher, who will start for Toronto and his ERA is 4.50 so far this season and this will tell us how many runs this pitcher allows per 9 innings. But ERA doesn’t include many other things and sometimes pitchers were just lucky. Imagine, that you have a pitcher with ERA 0, but he walked many hitters and he survived couple of bases loaded situation. Of course, ERA will be low, but on the long run, if he continues to play like this he will be hit hard. And ERA will not tell you this. ERA will tell you what happened, but we want to know what can possibly happen in the next game based on pitchers performance.

There are two very good sites like Fangraphs and Baseball-reference, where they provide some ERA metrics numbers and in this example we can check Happ’s xFIP (xFIP = ((13*(Fly balls * lgHR/FB%))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant). (fangraphs)

Rating FIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.20
Above Average 3.50
Average 3.80
Below Average 4.10
Poor 4.40
Awful 4.70

HAPP ERA = 4.50

HAPP xFIP = 2.97

As you can see in his example, despite his ERA is not that great his xFIP is almost excellent and xFIP for example is better future predictor than ERA. So with Happ we have very good pitcher on the mound.

He struck out 31 hitters in 22 innings this season, which is amazing. He went 5.5 innings per game, so we can expect that 3 innings will be pitched by bullpen and the biggest problem so far I see is that he allowed 5 home runs. This is the reason for big ERA.

What about his history against current Red Sox lineup?

BATTER AB HR R SO AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA
J.D. Martinez R 10 0 2 0 0.3 0.417 0.3 0.717 0.342
Eduardo Nunez R 21 0 1 3 0.286 0.318 0.381 0.699 0.309
Christian Vazquez R 14 0 2 4 0.286 0.333 0.357 0.69 0.31
Rafael Devers L 6 0 0 2 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 0.3
Hanley Ramirez R 32 1 6 6 0.188 0.308 0.344 0.651 0.292
Mookie Betts R 26 1 3 2 0.192 0.222 0.423 0.645 0.272
Brock Holt L 9 0 1 2 0.222 0.3 0.333 0.633 0.285
Sandy Leon S 6 0 0 2 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.333 0.15
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 14 0 1 5 0.071 0.133 0.143 0.276 0.13
Andrew Benintendi L 10 0 0 2 0 0.167 0 0.167 0.117
Mitch Moreland L 5 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
Boston Red Sox: 153 2 17 30 0.196 0.266 0.301 0.567 0.255

As we can see, he has some very solid numbers against current Boston lineup, despite I would not pay such a big attention to those numbers because usually we have very small sample sizes and we must be careful how much weight we give.

However, Boston players combined 153 at bats against him with batting average of 0.196, which is also not most important metric for future predictions. But to get the first picture about how he played in the past against Boston Red Sox players we can check some numbers above in the table.

Happ is also 7-3 in his career against Boston and his team is 10-6 in those games. His career ERA versus Boston is 3.24.

Rick Porcello on the other side is a right handed pitcher, who will start for Boston. He is 4-0 to the season and he struck out 23 hitters in 25 innings. The most amazing thing about him so far is that he has amazing control. He walked only 1 hitter so far.

PORCELO ERA – 1.40

PORCELLO xFIP – 3.34

But if we check his xFIP numbers against Happ’s numbers, we see, that Happ has lower xFIP. At the end of the day, there will not be such a huge advantage and if we strictly stick with xFIP numbers, Toronto will have the advantage here.

Let’s check his numbers versus Toronto’s players:

BATTER AB HR R SO AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA
Luke Maile R 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 1.25
Steve Pearce R 9 0 1 0 0.444 0.444 0.667 1.111 0.478
Justin Smoak S 30 3 6 8 0.267 0.389 0.633 1.022 0.428
Kevin Pillar R 36 0 3 7 0.278 0.316 0.389 0.705 0.311
Teoscar Hernandez R 3 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 0.3
Aledmys Diaz R 3 0 1 1 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 0.3
Devon Travis R 15 0 1 1 0.267 0.312 0.333 0.646 0.291
Kendrys Morales S 39 2 5 7 0.205 0.244 0.385 0.629 0.272
Curtis Granderson L 13 0 1 4 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.462 0.208
Russell Martin R 29 1 4 7 0.103 0.188 0.207 0.394 0.184
Randal Grichuk R 2 0 0 1 0 0.333 0 0.333 0.233
Active totals for
Toronto Blue Jays: 180 6 22 37 0.239 0.297 0.4 0.697 0.307

Toronto have 180 at bats against him, with batting average of 0.239 and 6 home runs.

Porcello is 9-8 against Toronto with ERA of 4.98 and his team is 10-10. Solid numbers, but if you strictly bet based on this pitcher vs batter information, then betting on Happ versus Boston would make you +5.2 units of profit in his career, while betting on Porcello would make you a loss of 0.9 units in his career versus Toronto.

The conclusion about pitchers: According to xFIP we have small advantage on Toronto’s side. Both pitchers have been playing very well so far and we will probably see very good pitching duel. Happ has pitched well against Boston in the past as well.

BULLPEN

The old times, when pitchers went 9 innings and at the same time scored 3 home runs are gone. Starting pitchers average is around 5.5 innings per game (my number is 5.46 innings per game for qualified SP last 365 days). If we know, that the game is 9 inning long, we simply can not ignore last 3-4 innings right? This is still more than 30% of the game.

When you make an analysis on bullpen (relievers), you can always check bullpen usage and if their key relievers pitched in a game the day before. But in our case, both teams had day off yesterday, so I will consider that all relievers, that are not injured are available today and can be used.

BOSTON Pitchers GP IP
Matt Barnes 1 1.1
Heath Hembree 1 1
Brian Johnson 1 0
Joe Kelly 1 1
Craig Kimbrel 0 0
Carson Smith 1 0.1
Hector Velazquez 1 3
Marcus Walden 0 0
Team total IP: 6.2

 

Pitcher GP IP
John Axford 2 1.2
Danny Barnes 2 2
Tyler Clippard 1 1
Aaron Loup 1 1
Tim Mayza 0 0
Seung-Hwan Oh 2 1.2
Roberto Osuna 1 1
Ryan Tepera 1 1
Team total IP: 9.1

I like to compare teams bullpens advanced ERA metrics numbers and according to my numbers I rank Blue Jays bullpen little bit better. I rank Blue Jays bullpen as 7th best and Boston as 16th best in the league (out of 30 teams).

TORONTO BULLPEN ERA – 2.12

TORONTO BULLPEN xFIP – 3.74

BOSTON BULLPEN ERA – 3.25

BOSTON BULLPEN xFIP – 3.83

As you can see, I would give small advantage here to Blue Jays.

HITTING AND THE OFFENSE

So, after we get the first picture about pitchers we need to check how many runs can our team score. Mainstream statistics that most sports fans and commentators use are home runs (HR), batting average (BA) and runs (R). Those are not the best future predictors and I see that more and more people started to talk about other metrics.

But let’s start with the basic picture about those two teams.

Boston scores 5.9 runs per game and they are one of the best offensive teams so far. Toronto on the other side scores 5.5 runs per game, which is also about league average. But instead of focusing on batting average you can focus on some other things, like  OBP, SLG, OPS, WRC+,…

And what I like to focus is on lefty vs righty matchups against hitters. In general, when left handed pitchers face left handed batters they have big advantage. It is much harder to hit left handed pitcher if you are a left handed batter. Second interesting thing is that there is much less left handed pitchers in the game and hitters sometimes are not that familiar with them. Of course this can not be the rule for every single player, but teams like to have at least one lefty in their rotation and at least one lefty in their bullpen so he can go against left handed batters in crucial moments.

According to my rankings I rank Boston as a 4th best offensive team in the league and Toronto as a 10th best team in the league. But this game is special because Boston will face a left handed pitcher and they were in 101 at bats this season against lefties. And what is interesting, I rank them as 29th team vs lefties so far. And today they will need to face Happ, that has almost excellent xFIP numbers and has very good past numbers vs Red Sox. Even if we check only runs/game, we see that Boston scores only 3.3 runs per game versus lefties, while on the other side they score much more vs righties. Note also, that Boston score little bit less on the road (4.7 compared to their overall 5.9 number)

Toronto on the other side score 5.5 runs per game, but they are much better versus right handed pitchers – 6.7 (this is the situation for them today) and they score more against lefties too – 5.8.

I rank Toronto as a 6th best team versus righties so far, while I rank Boston as a 29th versus lefties so far.

(of course I can not reveal everything in this post, but you can check my A Journey course, where I reveal exactly how I project my odds and what kind of metric and rankings I use)

FIELDING, ERRORS,…

The next thing you can do is to research couple of other things. How teams play in the field, how many errors they make, how good they are in stealing bases, etc…

BALLPARK FACTORS

We all know, that teams play in different ballparks and we have ballparks that are hitters friendly and ballparks that are pitchers friendly. In other words if Albert Pujols would play his whole career in Coors Field his numbers would be much better. I use ballpark adjusted numbers for my betting model. If you don’t use ballparks adjusted statistics, you can take this into account too.

Here is one interesting table from fantasypros, where you can get little bit better picture, which ballparks are hitters or pitchers friendly.

PARK NAME
RUNS
HR
1B
2B
3B
Coors Field
(Colorado Rockies)
1.378 1.223 1.195 1.267 1.816
Globe Life Park in Arlington
(Texas Rangers)
1.172 1.083 1.119 1.114 1.157
Chase Field
(Arizona Diamondbacks)
1.164 1.119 1.024 1.229 1.711
Fenway Park
(Boston Red Sox)
1.138 0.950 1.113 1.280 1.095
Progressive Field
(Cleveland Indians)
1.138 1.043 1.070 1.234 0.635
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
(Baltimore Orioles)
1.046 1.183 1.046 0.901 0.745
Target Field
(Minnesota Twins)
1.046 1.082 1.067 1.046 1.032
Miller Park
(Milwaukee Brewers)
1.045 1.178 0.941 1.070 1.000
Great American Ball Park
(Cincinnati Reds)
1.037 1.133 0.970 1.001 0.734
Kauffman Stadium
(Kansas City Royals)
1.031 0.795 1.007 1.183 1.398
Comerica Park
(Detroit Tigers)
1.028 1.025 1.011 0.996 1.485
Yankee Stadium
(New York Yankees)
1.025 1.301 0.942 0.856 0.613
Nationals Park
(Washington Nationals)
1.005 1.030 1.044 1.004 0.652
Rogers Centre
(Toronto Blue Jays)
0.993 0.978 0.948 1.142 1.000
Turner Field
(Atlanta Braves)
0.990 0.819 1.016 0.976 0.812
Wrigley Field
(Chicago Cubs)
0.985 1.004 0.971 0.933 1.135
Citizens Bank Park
(Philadelphia Phillies)
0.980 1.234 0.947 0.901 0.861
PNC Park
(Pittsburgh Pirates)
0.964 0.893 1.026 0.998 0.990
O.co Coliseum
(Oakland Athletics)
0.957 0.860 0.971 1.011 1.365
U.S. Cellular Field
(Chicago White Sox)
0.946 1.128 0.936 0.879 0.892
PETCO Park
(San Diego Padres)
0.922 0.919 0.981 0.956 0.835
Tropicana Field
(Tampa Bay Rays)
0.920 0.918 0.961 0.849 0.932
Safeco Field
(Seattle Mariners)
0.912 0.994 0.946 0.891 0.754
Busch Stadium
(St. Louis Cardinals)
0.912 0.870 1.043 0.957 0.835
Angel Stadium of Anaheim
(Los Angeles Angels)
0.907 0.982 0.989 0.855 0.682
Citi Field
(New York Mets)
0.900 0.941 0.889 0.892 0.655
Dodger Stadium
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
0.899 0.973 0.930 0.984 0.517
AT&T Park
(San Francisco Giants)
0.897 0.637 1.040 0.973 1.386
Marlins Park
(Miami Marlins)
0.879 0.795 0.960 0.867 0.967
Minute Maid Park
(Houston Astros)
0.850 0.972 0.926 0.880 1.107

 

UMPIRES

If you like, you can compare umpires and how they call strikes, balls, some of them favour home teams, etc. This is also another thing you can take into account.

INJURIES

It is of course important to take into account injuries. I use active rosters numbers, so the numbers from injured players are excluded and two notable missings are Donaldson fot Toronto (injured from 13.April) and Bogaerts for Boston (from 11.April).

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED BET

So, what we have here?

The bookmakers opened the odds at 2.11 on Toronto, but the odds dropped to 2.00 later. We have my betting model, where I have projected, that Boston should be an underdog and not Toronto.

We have Happ, who has very good history against Red Sox players and his advanced ERA-metrics (I used xFIP for this example) are even better than Porcello’s numbers. A lot of bettors will be fooled by ERA numbers, because we have Porcello with much better ERA and on the first look Happ ERA of 4.5 looks bad versus a team, that scores 5.9 runs per game.

But we can not take this 5.9 runs per game for Boston numbers, because they score much less against left handed pitchers (3.3 runs) and they will face one very good left handed pitcher today.

Toronto is an underdog here, despite they will probably have better pitcher on the mound and as we saw, they have slightly better bullpen so far too.

Toronto is also very good scoring home team and they play well against right handed pitchers too. I don’t see any big advantage from Boston in this game and I think we have a good underdog play on Toronto.

I would recommend to take Toronto up to 1.95. 

If you want to learn how I project my odds, check this crazy offer, which will end on April 30.

Yesterday, on Thanksgiving day there was no NHL games and all teams had day off. But today we have a huge card and you decided for a game between Flames and Stars which will be played in Dallas.

Bookmakers opened the odds of around +120 on Calgary but the odds dropped after that. We can still get Calgary as an underdog at around +113. Dallas odds are set at around 1.79.

My projected odds…

Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Calgary Flames 10 2.95 3.05 96 103 11 31 41.50% 2.41 141
5.42
Dallas Stars 24 2.77 2.95 98 96 2 8 58.50% 1.71 -141

I have projected, that Dallas should be favourite of around 1.71 and Calgary at around 2.41. The difference between my odds and bookmakers odds is still too small, where I don’t see enough value betting Dallas at the price of 1.79. If we include the errors of the model, there is not enough value on Dallas.

Calgary Flames on a very good run

Calgary Flames are playing very good ice hockey right now. They won 7 out of last 10 games and if we exclude that game agaisnt Detroit, where they allowed 8 goals, they are very very good. One loss in overtime against Columbus and one loss against Vancouver at home.

They score 2.95 goals per game and I rank them little bit lower than league average in the offence. They allow 3.05 goals per game and I rank their defence as 3% weaker than league average. They allow 3.05 goals per game and their defence is weaker for 3%  than league average defence. This number was also affected by that game in Detroit, where they allowed 8 goals, but they didn’t play with Mike Smith then and I believe, that he will be in the net tonight

Dallas Stars strong at home – weak on the road

Dallas Stars is one of those teams, at least from what we saw so far, that has two faces. They are very good at home, where they have the record of 8-2 and they are not that good on the road where they have the record of 3-9. The good thing for this team is that they will play at home tonight. They score 2.77 goals per game, which is less than Calgary Flames on the other side, but according to my numbers and my xOFF+ rankings, they are slightly better offensively than Calgary. They are also slightly better than Calgary in the defence. They allow less goals (2.95) and I rank this team defensively better than league average for 4% and for 7% better than Flames defence.

Special team comparison

Both teams have good power plays. Calgary Flames PP% is with 21.62% conversion 11th best in the league. On the other side Dallas Stars are even better in power plays with PP% of 25.37% and are 2nd best. But the biggest difference is made in penalty kill. Dallas Stars penalty kill unit is at 83.75% and they are 8th best in the league. On the other side Calgary Flames have the worst penalty kill unit  (72.6%) in the league. In other words when they need to defend with one men less, they allow goal in 27.4% of times. It will be interesting to see the worst penalty kill unit (Calgary) against second best power play in the league (Dallas).

Goalie match up

I still don’t have information who will be in the net, but after yesterday, where all players had day off, I believe, that both teams will go with their best goalies. Calgary have one very good goalie – Mike Smith and he holds SV% of 0.925 with 0.632 quality starts this season. And they have two other goalies with SV% below 0.900.

Dallas Stars on the other side rely on Ben Bishop, who holds SV% of 0.908.

Calgary will have advantage in the net, because Mike Smith is playing really well after he came to Calgary and according to GA%- he is higher ranked goalie than Bishop. The only question is his defence in front of him.

Injuries

Calgary Flames are complete

Dallas Stars are missing Methot, Hanzal and Lehtonen. If they start with Bishop none of these players will be a big factor in this game or if you like, current season numbers are not heavily affected by those players numbers. Kari Lehtonen SV% is lower and I rank him lower than Ben Bishop, so he is anyway the second choice. Methot played 15 games this season and collected 0 points. They will not miss him in offence, but they will probably miss him the defence. He is their 4th most important player int the defence. Hanzal is their third injured player and he is very big guy (6-6, 230lb (198cm, 104kg)) and his size can help Dallas, but his numbers this season are not good. In 17 games he collected only 3 points and has +/- rating at -11. This statistic tells us that when Hanzal was on the ice goal differential is -11 for Dallas. A player gets a “plus” each time he is on the ice and when his team scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He gets a “minus” if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing team. The difference is +/-.

 

Trends and other interesting information

Road team won 9 out of last 12 meetings between those two teams and Calgary is 4-1 in last 5 meetings in Dallas. Both teams are playing well on Friday – Dallas is 8-2 in last 10 Friday games and Calgary is 5-2 in last 7 Friday games.

Dallas is in a situation after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game and they are 27 – 4 for the last 3 seasons (+22.55 units). Calgary Flames on the other side are playing a game after they scored 2 goals or less in previous game and they are 4-0 in last 4 games in the same situation.

Not also, that Dallas lost 35 out of 51 games versus winning teams and they are playing the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. They are just 8-20 in this situation.

Conclusion and the pick

The model has Dallas at 1.71 and the bookmakers have slightly better numbers at around 1.79. But if we include the errors by model, there is no value for me in this game, so I will go with the other information and intuition that I have.

First of all, Calgary is playing better and they don’t have any injured players. Especially in last couple of games they are playing well. Even that last loss against Columbus was in extra time. They are 7-3 in last 10 games, while Dallas is 4-6 in last 10 games.

Secondly, Calgary has better goalie with Smith in the net. Goalie can be the difference in close games and this could be one of those close game tonight.

Thirdly, the line movement is on Calgary side. The odds dropped on them during the day. Calgary has good record against Dallas and because they lost the only game this season against them at home it is a time for revenge. The road team is 9-3 in last 12 meetings between those two teams.

Calgary has no injured players, while Dallas is missing two from the lineup. Despite those two players are not most important players for this team, they still could miss them in close games.

Those are the reasons why I like Calgary here.

There are also three strong reasons to back Dallas: They are playing at home, where they are almost unbeatable, they have very good power play and they will face the worst penalty kill unit in the league. If Calgary goes into the troubles with penalties, then this might be very interesting – second PP vs worst PK in the league. And there is also my winning percentages, where I see small value with the Dallas. Not enough value and not enough difference between the odds to make final conclusion but still there is small difference and the model favours Dallas.

So, there is all kind of questions about this game and you can decide based on those information. I will go with the gut feeling here and with an underdog.

RECOMMENDED BET: CALGARY FLAMES 2.129 (US odds +113) at Nitrogensports

Saturday, November 25th 2017

Thanksgiving day and whole USA will focus on three NFL games and I will try to give you the best advice with my analysis of the day, despite NFL is not my main sport and this is something, where I still need to learn a lot.

But let’s go to the game, that you have selected and this is Giants at Redskins. The bookmakers opened the spread at around -7.5 and despite, that most people will be with Washington the line moved to -6.5, this is one information, that is interesting.

My projections

According to my projections, Washington should be at -10.5

Game My Spread My Total
New York Giants 10.5
50
Washington Redskins -10.5

This is the first year where I project the lines for NFL games, but those projected lines helped me already when I made some bets this season. I also have projected the total at around 50 points, which is little bit bigger than from bookmakers. Bookmakers still have the total at around 45 and this it looks like my model favours the total in this one.

Match up

We have to losing teams and Giants are coming to this game after they beat Kansas in the last game, which was an upset win. Of course, they were +10 point underdog. They beat Kansas at home in low scoring game, but if we check their performance this season, they are not doing well. They score 16.2 points per game, where they make 5.1 yards per play. They also allow 24.7 points per game and 6 yards per play.

On the other side we have Washington, who scores 23.8 points per game in other words, they score 1 TD more than Giants on the other side. But what is interesting here is that Washington also doesn’t have the best defence. They allow even more points than Giants on the other side (26.6). They allow the same yards than Giants on the other side and we have two weak defences and the main difference is made in the offence.

I have projected the result:

Giants 18.72 points
Redskins 27.65

Washington is in a must win situation…

But those are the numbers and I think we should also consider other things here. First of all Washington is in a must win situation after they lost 2 straight games if they want to hope for the playoffs. They lost the last game in New Orleans, where they scored a lot of points but they also faced one of most potent attacks in NFL and today they will face much weaker offence. Not only that they scored more than 30 points in last game, they were also leading by 15 points and they blew up that game. And right now they are coming back home to bounce back after that loss.

Giants on the other side are basically not playing for anything. They stole a win last week and they will be relaxed to play here. Thanksgiving is always a special day to play and I believe they will be motivated. They are also very unpredictable, because they lost to poor 49ers and then the next week they beat Kansas. And if we check the last 8 games, they lost only 3 games by more than a TD. All other games they lost by less points.

However, both teams have the same ATS record (against the spread), which is 4-6.

Trends and other information

When those two teams met in the past the underdog is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games. That means, that the team with plus spread is 10-3. Giants will be an point spread underdog here and they are 6-2 in last 8 meetings against Washington.

Note also that Washington is 1-6 ATS at home in last 7 games and Giants are 5-1 in last 6 games against the teams, that have losing home record.

My conclusion and recommended pick…

The line was opened at -7.5 on Washington but after that the spread dropped to -6.5 despite public will be with Washington and this is something I don’t like. All trends are also against Washington.

It is a big question how will Giants play this game. They definitely gained some momentum in the last game, but then again, they are not consistent. In one game, they beat Denver on the road and then allow 51 points to Rams and they lose a game against 49ers. The question is which version of Giants we will see here.

Motivation is definitely on Washington side, but the question if the motivation is enough.

So, I will go with the three things that I like about Washington here:

Their QB Kirk Cousins is red hot. He played well in the last game, where he  threw 3 touch downs and zero interceptions. He will face very bad defence. Giants defence allowed already 20 touchdowns this season. He is also much better ranked QB than Manning on the other side.

Secondly, Washington will be much more motivated for this game. I don’t like to rely on motivation and this should not be the only reason to bet on the games, but where there are other reasons, then this can only support it.

And there is also my projections for this game, where I favour Washington. So I will just go with this and will go against the trends.

I will stay myself out of this game, because I think that is very tricky one, because we never now which version of Giants we will see, but I will still make a prediction here…

MY RECOMMENDED BET: WASHINGTON REDSKINS -6.5 at Cloudbet

VOTE FOR FRIDAY’S GAME – I WILL ANALYSE IT FOR YOU

Saturday, November 25th 2017

The bookmakers opened the odds of around +120 (2.20) on Winnipeg but then later those odds dropped and this makes sense. Winnipeg is one of nice surprises this season. I like this team and when somebody asked me, which team I think will be nice surprise in NHL 2017/2018 I said Winnipeg. They have couple of great talented players and right now they are 3rd best team in NHL according to points. Very good team so far.

Game Nitrogensports Cloudbet mBIT Bitcoinrush Betcoin
WPG 2.099 2.08 2.11 2.11 2.1
LAK 1.804 1.79 1.81 1.81 1.752
Margin 103.07% 103.94% 102.64% 102.64% 104.70%

The best bitcoin bookmakers have the odds of around 2.10 on Winnipeg and around 1.80 on Los Angeles Kings. With this, they give small advantage to the Kings.

My projected odds

I have projected, that Los Angeles Kings will have around 60% of chance to win this game.

Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Winnipeg Jets 3 3.35 2.80 112 102 6 22 39.75% 2.52 152
5.46
Los Angeles Kings 9 3.05 2.38 101 81 18 1 60.25% 1.66 -152

Because of that my fair odds would be at 1.66 on Los Angeles. With 1.81 on Bitcoinrush and mBit bookmakers sites, I have small value with the Kings here.

I also projected around 5.46 goals in this game. Bookmakers set the odds for 5.5 total at around 1.91 (-110) and there is no value playing the total for me.

Kings are on a bad streak…

Los Angeles Kings are a team with a lot of very good players. They play very aggressive ice hockey and playing against them is not easy. Last season was very bad season, because they didn’t even reached the playoffs. They key players were not satisfied with the season and they step up in this season. Kopitar, Brown, Qiuck, Doughty,… it seems that they are playing much better than last season. And those players are among the best in the league. With couple of young guns I think they can reach playoffs this season, especially if Quick will play on this level.

But after a good start they collected couple of losses. It all started at home when they faced Tampa Bay and Lightning beat them by 5-2. They played the next 4 games at home and the only win came against Florida after they lost to San Jose, Vancouver and Boston. After that win they traveled to Vegas and they lost again.

Such a streaks are something normal in sports betting and me myself face this kind of streaks in betting too. But streaks are bad short runs and we always must to get bigger picture about this team and what can they do.

Los Angeles Kings score 3.05 goals per game and they have average offence in the league (1% better than league average according to my xDEF rankings). They started struggling little bit in last couple of games (2 goals per game in last 5), but they still have a lot of potential and definitely they can score more than 2 goals per game.

But their main strength is their defence. According to my numbers, where I take into account goal attending, defence, PK%, shots against per game and 5 on 5 game they have second best defence in the league. Their defence is 19% better than league average defence (xDEF+).

In front of this very good defence we have two very good goalies. Jonathan Quick is their first goalie and holds SV% of 92.6% to the season. In last 4 games his SV% dropped little bit to 0.899 but we must understand that his career SV% is 0.916 and when he is playing at his best he is among the best goalies in NHL. And according to this season numbers he can have a very good season. His backup is Darcy Kuemper, who came from Minnesota and he holds SV% 0.943 to the season (6 games, 4 starts). No matter who starts, Kings have good goalie options and very good defence.

Winnipeg Jets good streak…

Winnipeg Jets on the other side are playing great ice hockey. They score 3.35 goals per game I rank their offence for 12% better than league average. In last 5 games they scored 3.8 goals per game and went 4-1. In last 11 games, they lost only 3 times. I think that goal scoring is their main strength, despite they have very good goalie with Connor Hellebuyck, who holds SV% of 0.925. Their defence is just average (2% weaker than league average defence) and in those three losses they allowed 15 goals (5 goals per game). They also have weaker backup goalie (we still don’t know who will be in the net), because Steve Mason holds SV% of 0.892 and I also don’t trust him too much.

Their power play is among the best in the league (6th best) but they will also face the best penalty kill unit in the league, because Los Angeles PP% of 90.14% is the best in NHL.

Injuries and missings

Los Angeles are missing Jeff Carter, Kyle Clifford and Marian Gaborik who are out a big factor here. Yes, they are very important players for the Kings, but they didn’t play much this season and what the Kings did this season was without those guys and I use current season statistics when I analyse games. Jeff Carter played only 6 games, Clifford only 3 games an Gaborik didn’t play any game yet. The biggest question is if Quick will play, because a the time when I write this I still don’t have this information, but I also don’t have any problem with Darcy Kuemper who did well so far this season.

Winnipeg will miss Toby Enstrom, but he is not important factor in this game, because he played 19 games this season and collected only 2 points.

Trends and interesting information

Winnipeg Jets lost 8 out of 11 meetings in Los Angeles. But they are playing on one day rest, where they are very good with recent record of 14-2 in this situation. Kings lost 5 out of last 6 home games, but they had 2 days off now to clear their minds and they are good when they had 2 days rest. They went 5-1 in last 6 games with 2 days rest.

Conclusion and my recommended pick

Winnipeg Jets are playing well, they are playing well on the road too. Definitely one of the hottest teams right now in NHL. But we have interesting match up here:

Very good offence vs very good defence (Winnipeg OFF +12% versus LA Kings DEF +19%)

Very good power play versus very good penalty kill (Winnipeg #6 in NHL – PP% 22.73 versus LA Kings #1 in NHL – PK% 90.14)

If we check Winnipeg numbers on the road and compare them to their numbers at home, they score only 2.9 goals per game on the road, they are also outplayed by 5.5 shots per game on the road and their special teams performance is slightly weaker on the road.

I give small advantage to Jonathan Quick if he starts tonight, which I believe, because he had 2 days rest. And even if he doesn’t start, they have very good option with Kuemper.

Los Angeles Kings had 2 days rest and Lewis said. “We have to go home and regroup.” Two days were enough to regroup, after all they are 5-1 in last 6 games when they had 2 days off. I think that we will see very good Kings tonight.

My betting model gives them better chance to win this game (60.25%) and with the current odds that are offered by bookmakers, we have a value with Los Angeles Kings.

In the meantime we got the information, that Winnipeg will start with  Steve Mason, Los Angeles with Jonathan Quick and because of that I like the Kings even more.

RECOMMENDED BET: LOS ANGELES KINGS at 1.78 (US odd -128) at Bitcoinrush

Saturday, November 25th 2017

 

One analysis per day has been very good so far. Despite I don’t select games, but you with the voting on my site and at the bottom of this post, I do my best to research selected game. So, if you like my analysis, please vote for tomorrow’s game, there will be 15 games and I am sure you will find most interesting game.

But let’s go to today’s game. Your choice is: Vancouver at Philadelphia

Philadelphia Flyers will meet Vancouver Canucks at home and the bookmakers have Vancouver as an underdog of around +145. The odds didn’t move much during the day and the public will be more with Philadelphia. Nitrogensports has Vancouver at 2.47 (+147 US odds) and Philadelphia at 1.60 (-166).

My projected odds

Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Vancouver Canucks 21 2.55 2.85 83 88 24 18 40.36% 2.48 148
4.39
Philadelphia Flyers 26 2.80 2.80 95 87 17 24 59.64% 1.68 -148

My projected odds are pretty same than from Nitrogensports. I expect, that I win $148 with Vancouver if I bet on them and if they win of course. Nitrogensports is willing to pay me exactly the same amount of money. Because they have 3% margin in this game, my odds on Philadelphia are slightly bigger. I have them at 1.68, where I expect at least $68 of profit for my $100 risked. Nitrogensports would pay me little bit less, $60 of profit.

The total is set at 5.5 and if I adjust the total at my bookmakers account, the odds on the total of 5 goals is set at 2.28. I have projected, that this game could be low scoring game. But let’s check the other information, that we have about this game.

Match up

Vancouver Canucks score 2.55 goals per game and according to my xOFF+ ranking, I have them as 17% weaker offence than league average. They don’t make a lot of shots (28.9 shots per game and in last 5 games they placed only 26.4 goals per game) and if we check their production in last 5 games, they score only 1.8 goals.

At the same time Vancouver allow 4 goals per game in last 5 games. After a very good start to the season, where they still have solid record and I must say, that I don’t expect much from this team, betting on them was not that bad. At least you would not lose money betting on Vancouver this season (9-11, +0.3 units). Their road record is even better (6-3, +6.2 units) and because they are underdog on the road, betting Vancouver on the road was very profitable so far.

I rank their offence below league average but I rank their defence above league average (+12%).

Philadelphia on the other side has a better overall team, at least based on player names. But of course players names are not a guarantee for a good season and because Philadelphia is overrated most of the time, betting on them this season was not profitable. If you bet on Philadelphia in every single game this season, you would make a loss of -5.8 units.

They score 2.8 goals per game and I rank their offence better than Vancouver offence. However, I rank Philadelphia’s offence lower than league average offence for 5%. Their best production is at home, where they score 3 goals per game.

But when it comes to the defence, Philadelphia allows only 2.8 goals per game and I rank their defence higher than Vancouver defence and higher than league average defence (for 13% bettter vs league average).

Goalies

Vancouver will start with their first goalie Jacob Markstrom, who played in 15 games this season and holds SV% of 0.910. But in last few games his SV% dropped to 0.888 and his SV% on the road is also little bit lower (0.904). He has 50% of quality starts this season and his career SV% is 0.910.

Philadelphia on the other side will start with Michal Neuvirth, their backup goalie, who has been very good in 6 games this season. His Sv% is 0.928 and at home he has been even better with SV% of 0.935. His career SV% is 0.910, which is the same then from Markstrom on the other side.

Current streaks…

But teams are struggling right now. We have Vancouver that lost 7 out of last 10 games and we have Philadelphia with the same record in last 10 games. Philadelphia also lost last 4 straight games and I think they will be little bit more hungry in this game.

Injuries

Vancouver will be without Christopher Tanev and Troy Stecher. Stecher is not a big factor in this game, but on the other side Tanev is their most important defence player. According to defensive point shares Tanev is the best player in Vancouver. He is out since 9th November. From 9th November till today, Vancouver is just 1-4.

Philadelphia will be without Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Colin McDonald and Anthony Stolarz. But they will probably have back  Jordan Weal. Gudas will start serving 10 game suspension and they will miss him, but according to defensive point shares, Andrew Macdonald and Gudas are only 5th and 6th most important D players in Philadelphia. Colin Macdonald and Anthony Stolarz are not important for this game.

From injury view I think that we don’t have any huge advantage by any team here.

Trends and other interesting information

Vancouver is playing well as a road underdog, they are 10-8 since March 4th as a road underdog. And we all know what that means, because with the underdog plays you need winning percentage of only  50% and you make profit for sure. Vancouver is also 7-19 against Metropolitan teams and the home team is 4-1, when they met in the past.

Philadelphia on the other side has a good record against Vancouver since 1996. They beat them in 18 out of 27 games (66.67%) since 1996. They are also good bounce back team – after they received 5 goal or more in previous game, they responded with the win in the next game 7 times out of last 8 games. And this is exactly the situation for them after they allowed 5 goals against Calgary.

Conclusion and my recommended pick

I was watching Philadelphia against Calgary. They were leading by 3-1 and at the end they lost. They were playing well and even in overtime they had possession most of the time. But then Calgary somehow scored with the first possession. Despot that loss and despite their current losing streak, I think they are better team than Vancouver here.

First off all, they have better offence and better defence. I don’t see any big difference in the net, but according to historical numbers, Philadelphia has good numbers against Vancouver. They will also try to bounce back after that last loss, where they allowed 5 goals.

Vancouver is below league average team and I don’t expect much from them this season. They lost last 2 games at home and they are starting with a tough schedule on the road against Metropolitan teams. And Philadelphia has good record against them. We will see how good they are on this road trip.

My NHL betting model didn’t find any advantage and any value in this game. I think the odds are set fair and I always recommend to stay away from bets, where there is no value. But if we take this game as a whole picture, which is combination of different information, including my math model, I think I would rather go with Philadelphia. They play strong ice hockey at home, where they outscore opponents by 0.4 goals per game and they also outplay opponents by 2.8 shots per game in average.

MY RECOMMENDED BET: PHILADELPHIA FLYERS at 1.60 (US odds -166) at Nitrogensports

Vote for tomorrow’s game:

Saturday, November 25th 2017

Minnesota Wild will host New Jersey Devils for the first time this season. Bookmakers opened the odds of around 2.50 on New Jersey Devils and then during the day the odds dropped on Minnesota.

Nitrogensports offer the odds of 2.607 on New Jersey Devils right now and 1.547 on Minnesota.

Before we go to the analysis, I must say, that this is not my favourite game to bet. But since you voted for this game, I will try to give you the best possible advice with all the information I poses.

My betting and projected odds

My betting model gives Minnesota around 58.86% of chance to win this game. According to my model, fair odds would be New Jersey +143 and Minnesota -143:

Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
New Jersey Devils 5 3.32 3.16 107 107 3 16 41.14% 2.43 143
5.70
Minnesota Wild 21 2.95 2.68 99 90 19 8 58.86% 1.70 -143

The bookmakers have pretty same odds and I don’t see any huge value in this game. Minnesota is a better team and should be favoured here, but playing them was not profitable this season (9-10, -2.8 units). On the other side playing on New Jersey was successful and if you bet on New Jersey Devils whole season, you would make a profit (11-8, +5.4 units).

The odds dropped on Minnesota despite bettors are undecided and in some cases, they favour New Jersey here.

Current streak and season performance

New Jersey Devils started this season really big. They won couple of straight wins and even after a month and a hals, they are still winning team with the record of 11-8. They have winning road record too (6.4) and they are among the best scoring teams in NHL with 3.32 goals per game. Nobody expected such a good start.

But after good start the things changed little bit and the Devils lost 6 out of last 8 games. They beat Florida at home by 2-1 and they beat Chicago on the road by 7-5. In last 5 games they score 2.6 goals per game.

I rank Devils for 7% better offensively than league average team and I rank them for 7% weaker than league average team in defence.

On the other side we have Minnesota Wild, who didn’t start the season that well. They were struggling with couple of injuries and they simply didn’t play that well. However, in last 5 games, they won 4 and the only loss came from Washington, where they lost 3-1.

Minnesota score 2.95 goals per game and my offensive ranking (xOFF+) is 99. In other words I rank them for 1% weaker than league average offensive team. But their are much more stronger in offence, at least so far this season. They allow 2.68 goals per game and rank them (xDEF+) for 10% better in defence than league average team.

Goalies comparison

So we have one good defensive team (Minnesota) and one below league average team, when it comes to defence. But the main roles of these defences play goalies. And both teams decided to send out their best goalies.

Minnesota will start with Dubnyk, who started 15 games this season and holds SV% of 0.922. His start was not that good, but in last couple of games he is playing on a very high level. His SV% in last 5 games is 0.970 and he is very good since he arrived in Minnesota (SV% by season: 2014-15: 0.936, 2015-206: 0.918, 2016-2017: 0.923) and it looks like he is hot again.

Cory Schneider is 8-6 to the season and has been very consistent and solid so far. He holds Sv% of 0.917 and despite he lost 5 out of last 6 games, he was good (Sv% 0.911).

We will definitely see solid goalie duel. Hockey reference rank both goalies above league average giving small advantage to Dubnyk this season.

Trends and interesting information…

Devils are on a 4 game road trip, where they beat Chicago and lost to Toronto in close game and lost to Winnipeg by 5-2. But when they lost a game by 3 goals or more, they responded well after that. They won 8 out of 11 games after they lost by 3 goals or more.

Devils are also 4-0 in last 4 meetings, but home team is leading series by 7-2 in last 9 meetings.

Minnesota is playing much better right now and they won 5 out of last 7 home games, but they lost 4 straight home games against the teams, that have winning road record (Devils on the road: 6-4). Not only that they lost 4 straight at home against good road teams, but they also lost 17 out of 28 games at home when they were favourite (Since March 7th, 2017).

Injuries

Minnesota will play without Zach Parise and Charlie Coyle. Parise is injured all the time and didn’t play a game this season. Coyle on the other side played only 3 games and those two players will not be a factor in this game and for my projections.

New Jersey Devils will be without Mirco Mueller and Marcus Johansson. Both players collected together 7 points this season for New Jersey Devils and they will not be any big factor in this game.

We can expect both teams to play with their best players, including goalies.

Conclusion and recommended pick:

The line movement is clear – the odds dropped on Minnesota during the day, despite the public is not in huge favour of Minnesota. There are couple of reasons to back Minnesota in this one, because they are playing much better right now, they gained a lot of momentum in the last games, when they lost only one game and what is more importantly for this team – Dubnyk is red hot. If you play Minnesota Wild, the defence is on your side. After all I rank New Jersey Devils as a below average defensive team.

But if you like to play on Devils, there are also couple of reasons to back them. First of all, with the line movement, the odds raised and right now we have a nice underdog odds on them. After all, New Jersey is a winning team this season, while Minnesota is not. Blindly betting on New Jersey was profitable this season, while on Minnesota was not. Devils have good recent record against Minnesota and they will be motivated to step up in this one after they lost a game by 3 goals.

My betting model also favours Devils here by small margin, but there is no perfect model and we must understand that I always look for bigger difference between my numbers and bookmakers numbers, because of errors and other information, that I don’t have, which might affect on the odds.

So, I would recommend to be careful with this game as I simply don’t have value with any of these teams. The prices (odds) are fair and if you bet with Minnesota, you definitely have better chance to win this game, but you will also overpay according to my numbers. If you bet on the Devils, you will bet on a team, that will have less than 50% of chance to win and the reward is not that big.

If you like to play the totals, the over was in 6 out of last 8 meetings between those two teams.

This is not the best play today, but I would still recommend to play small on the underdog here, if you decide to bet. Betting on New Jersey is a money this season, they have good record against Minnesota and because of line movement, we have very good odds on them too.

RECOMMENDED BET: Bet small on NEW JERSEY DEVILS +161 (2.607) at Nitrogensports

Saturday, November 25th 2017

 

This is my first NFL season to bet and I started with a challenge, where I want to create simple predictive model, that will estimate the lines for NFL games. After 10 weeks I learned a lot about this sport, but there is still many things to learn and analysing the games is great way how to improve my NFL betting skill. I also improved my NFL betting model and right now I get much better picture about games. After all, I am 12-7-1 on my NFL investment bets this season. It is very small sample size of bets and they don’t tell anything about my NFL betting skill, but still this gives me motivation for future work.

But let’s go to today’s game. You voted for NY Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs game and I will try to give you the best prediction, which will be based on current bookmakers odds. And at the end of the day, I hope that I help you to make money.

Bookmakers opened the odds at +13 on NY Giants and then the odds dropped to +10. The total was opened at 44 and then raised t around 45.5.

My NFL projected lines and totals

This season I have created predictive model for NFL and in first 10 weeks I was testing it and adjusting. Last week I updated the model, where I pay special attention to rushing and passing and according to my numbers, fair line on this game should be:

Game My Spread My Total
Kansas City Chiefs -11.5
56
New York Giants 11.5

I have projected, that the line on New York Giants should be +11.5, which is pretty same than bookmakers line and if we take into account errors by the model, then the line is totally correct and I would stay away from this bet. But I also projected the total for this game, which is 56 and this is much higher than from bookmakers. Because of that this game could be potentially high scoring game.

Kansas City Chiefs…

Kansas is among the best offensive teams this season. With 6.2 yards per play they lead the league (with New Orleans, that have the same number) and they are 4th best scoring team. They score 28.1 points per game and on the road hey are even better with 31 points per game. Their offence slowed little bit in last three games, but they still scored more than 25 points in average.

But the biggest problem by Kansas is their defence. They are among the worst in the league. I rank this defence as 30th out of 32 teams. They allow 23.1 points per game. They are second worst in the league in preventing yards (Y/A – yards per attempt) with 4.8 Y/A. Only Patriots are worse. They are also 8th worst in pass defence (NY/A – net yards per pass attempt).

Those numbers are even worse on the road. Kansas allows more than 26 points per game on the road.

But the good thing is that they will face a team, that has even worse defence. At least from points perspective.

New York Giants…

They hold the record of 1-8 and they just lost against 49ers, where I thought that they could win. But it looks like that they are not playing well this season and they are struggling in offence and the defence. They score 16.7 points per game and they allow 26.4 points per game. With their weak defence this season, they can struggle against many teams this season and the worst part in this game is that they will stand against of the best attacking teams in NFL.

The only good thing is that they will face one of the worst defensive teams too.

Trends and interesting information…

Kansas is 13-0 ATS (+13.17 ppg) when visiting a non-divisional opponent, that has lower win%. Kansas is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games and 9-2 ATS on the road. Over is also in 6 out of last 8 Kansas road game, over is also 4-0 after Kansas lost the game straight up (they lost the last game). But the Under is 7-0-1 in last 8 following a bye week.

Giants on the other side are 5-1 ATS at home against teams with winning road record, they are also 5-1 against Kansas in last 6 meetings. When they met in the past games, under is 5-0-1.

Conclusion and recommended pick:

We have Kansas City that has good attack. One of the best in the league and they are scoring even more on the road. They will face the worst defensive team in the league. That team even lost a game against 49ers, that are playing bad football this season. After 3 losses in last 4 games, where they also scored little bit less, I believe, that they will step up here. After all their coach Reid is 16-2 following a week off. They don’t have the nest defence, in fact their defence is among the worst, but they can score.

On the other side we have Giants that are the worst defensive team in the league and because they will face very good offence I expect that we can see some points here too. They probably know what is Kansas weakness and this is their defence. Because of that they will have the chance to score some more points than usually. After all they still have Manning, that can pass and they have currently hot TE Evan Engram, who has caught a touchdown pass in four straight contests.

I believe that both teams can score in this game because of opponents weak defences. Despite the under trend in last 6 meetings between those two teams, I recommend a play on over in this game.

The best odds you can find at bitcoin bookmakers: Nitrogensports, Cloudbet, Bitcoinrush and mBIT.

RECOMMENDED BET: OVER 45.5

2017-05-01