The bookmakers opened the odds of around +120 (2.20) on Winnipeg but then later those odds dropped and this makes sense. Winnipeg is one of nice surprises this season. I like this team and when somebody asked me, which team I think will be nice surprise in NHL 2017/2018 I said Winnipeg. They have couple of great talented players and right now they are 3rd best team in NHL according to points. Very good team so far.
The best bitcoin bookmakers have the odds of around 2.10 on Winnipeg and around 1.80 on Los Angeles Kings. With this, they give small advantage to the Kings.
My projected odds
I have projected, that Los Angeles Kings will have around 60% of chance to win this game.
|Los Angeles Kings||9||3.05||2.38||101||81||18||1||60.25%||1.66||-152|
Because of that my fair odds would be at 1.66 on Los Angeles. With 1.81 on Bitcoinrush and mBit bookmakers sites, I have small value with the Kings here.
I also projected around 5.46 goals in this game. Bookmakers set the odds for 5.5 total at around 1.91 (-110) and there is no value playing the total for me.
Kings are on a bad streak…
Los Angeles Kings are a team with a lot of very good players. They play very aggressive ice hockey and playing against them is not easy. Last season was very bad season, because they didn’t even reached the playoffs. They key players were not satisfied with the season and they step up in this season. Kopitar, Brown, Qiuck, Doughty,… it seems that they are playing much better than last season. And those players are among the best in the league. With couple of young guns I think they can reach playoffs this season, especially if Quick will play on this level.
But after a good start they collected couple of losses. It all started at home when they faced Tampa Bay and Lightning beat them by 5-2. They played the next 4 games at home and the only win came against Florida after they lost to San Jose, Vancouver and Boston. After that win they traveled to Vegas and they lost again.
Such a streaks are something normal in sports betting and me myself face this kind of streaks in betting too. But streaks are bad short runs and we always must to get bigger picture about this team and what can they do.
Los Angeles Kings score 3.05 goals per game and they have average offence in the league (1% better than league average according to my xDEF rankings). They started struggling little bit in last couple of games (2 goals per game in last 5), but they still have a lot of potential and definitely they can score more than 2 goals per game.
But their main strength is their defence. According to my numbers, where I take into account goal attending, defence, PK%, shots against per game and 5 on 5 game they have second best defence in the league. Their defence is 19% better than league average defence (xDEF+).
In front of this very good defence we have two very good goalies. Jonathan Quick is their first goalie and holds SV% of 92.6% to the season. In last 4 games his SV% dropped little bit to 0.899 but we must understand that his career SV% is 0.916 and when he is playing at his best he is among the best goalies in NHL. And according to this season numbers he can have a very good season. His backup is Darcy Kuemper, who came from Minnesota and he holds SV% 0.943 to the season (6 games, 4 starts). No matter who starts, Kings have good goalie options and very good defence.
Winnipeg Jets good streak…
Winnipeg Jets on the other side are playing great ice hockey. They score 3.35 goals per game I rank their offence for 12% better than league average. In last 5 games they scored 3.8 goals per game and went 4-1. In last 11 games, they lost only 3 times. I think that goal scoring is their main strength, despite they have very good goalie with Connor Hellebuyck, who holds SV% of 0.925. Their defence is just average (2% weaker than league average defence) and in those three losses they allowed 15 goals (5 goals per game). They also have weaker backup goalie (we still don’t know who will be in the net), because Steve Mason holds SV% of 0.892 and I also don’t trust him too much.
Their power play is among the best in the league (6th best) but they will also face the best penalty kill unit in the league, because Los Angeles PP% of 90.14% is the best in NHL.
Injuries and missings
Los Angeles are missing Jeff Carter, Kyle Clifford and Marian Gaborik who are out a big factor here. Yes, they are very important players for the Kings, but they didn’t play much this season and what the Kings did this season was without those guys and I use current season statistics when I analyse games. Jeff Carter played only 6 games, Clifford only 3 games an Gaborik didn’t play any game yet. The biggest question is if Quick will play, because a the time when I write this I still don’t have this information, but I also don’t have any problem with Darcy Kuemper who did well so far this season.
Winnipeg will miss Toby Enstrom, but he is not important factor in this game, because he played 19 games this season and collected only 2 points.
Trends and interesting information
Winnipeg Jets lost 8 out of 11 meetings in Los Angeles. But they are playing on one day rest, where they are very good with recent record of 14-2 in this situation. Kings lost 5 out of last 6 home games, but they had 2 days off now to clear their minds and they are good when they had 2 days rest. They went 5-1 in last 6 games with 2 days rest.
Conclusion and my recommended pick
Winnipeg Jets are playing well, they are playing well on the road too. Definitely one of the hottest teams right now in NHL. But we have interesting match up here:
Very good offence vs very good defence (Winnipeg OFF +12% versus LA Kings DEF +19%)
Very good power play versus very good penalty kill (Winnipeg #6 in NHL – PP% 22.73 versus LA Kings #1 in NHL – PK% 90.14)
If we check Winnipeg numbers on the road and compare them to their numbers at home, they score only 2.9 goals per game on the road, they are also outplayed by 5.5 shots per game on the road and their special teams performance is slightly weaker on the road.
I give small advantage to Jonathan Quick if he starts tonight, which I believe, because he had 2 days rest. And even if he doesn’t start, they have very good option with Kuemper.
Los Angeles Kings had 2 days rest and Lewis said. “We have to go home and regroup.” Two days were enough to regroup, after all they are 5-1 in last 6 games when they had 2 days off. I think that we will see very good Kings tonight.
My betting model gives them better chance to win this game (60.25%) and with the current odds that are offered by bookmakers, we have a value with Los Angeles Kings.
In the meantime we got the information, that Winnipeg will start with Steve Mason, Los Angeles with Jonathan Quick and because of that I like the Kings even more.
RECOMMENDED BET: LOS ANGELES KINGS at 1.78 (US odd -128) at Bitcoinrush