Oakland Athletics +109 ML
Oakland Athletics 1st5 +105
Today’s CSGO Betting
Today’s MLB Betting Model Projections and Bet Predictions
Updated: 28. September, 2020
MLB 2016: 114-111, +40.67 units
MLB 2017: 631 – 608, +56.20 model plays (27.22 units including gut plays)
MLB 2018: 318-320, +3.83 Units (CLV: +1.92%, BTL: 64%)
MLB 2019: 145-137, +12.50 Units (CLV: +1.64%, BTL: 63.12%, Best Value Plays CLV: 3.33%, BTL: 75%)
MLB 2020: 60-43, +16.03 units, Yield: +11.25% (in progress)
Total: +123.23 Units
Dime bettors made $123,230 of profit
A lot of people asked me what is the best sport to bet and my answer is always the same – baseball. At least for me. Bookmakers are very smart and they know how to attract bettors with all kinds of promotions and other bonuses and they also know very well psychology of bettors and gamblers. They know how to attract them and a lot of people will fall into this trap. They will bet on sports, that they like to watch, not to invest. Of course, NFL is great to watch, but from an investing point I think, that there is no sport that is close to MLB and betting on it, when it comes to sample size of data, statistics and information.
Keep reading and I will explain, why baseball is the best sport to bet for me, what is my baseball betting strategy and how I bet on baseball.
Why I bet baseball and what MLB betting system I use?
The most popular sport in the USA is the NFL. There are 32 teams, that play 256 games in one season. The regular season starts in September and ends at the start of January.
Let’s take a look at how much money can make one very good sports bettor in one regular NFL season if he plays every single game (1 game = 1 bet, spread for example). Let’s take an example, that he is very good and he will reach a yield of 10% (some people call it ROI).
- 256 games * $1000 = $256,000 risked money
- Yield 10%: 0.1*$256,000 = $25,600
A very good NFL bettor will make $25,600 of profit if he plays every single game and if he is very good.
On the other side, take the example of a very good MLB bettor, with the same yield, and if he also bet on every single game in regular MLB season.
One regular MLB season has 2430 games and if we take that he bet on every single game (1 bet = 1 game).
- 2430 games * $1000 = $2,4300,000 risked money
- Yield 10%: 0.1*$2,4300,00 =$243,000 of profit
Very good MLB bettor with a system and a strategy will make $243,000 of profit, which is close to 10 times more than NFL bettor.
Of course, reaching yield of 10% playing all NFL and MLB games is not possible, but I wanted to show you that potential in baseball is much bigger. Every day we have 10-15 games and if you are prepared to work hard on MLB analysis and your betting strategy, I think there is no other sport that has so many opportunities.
There are also a couple of other key reasons, why I bet baseball:
- Huge market: This is not the second league in volleyball, where the lines move quickly and where the limits are low. MLB is one of the biggest markets in the sports betting world and on average you can bet much more than on any other smaller leagues.
- Statistics: I am investor, not a gambler and I can not bet without analysis and without any statistics. Even if I made some intuition plays, I look first at the numbers. Statistics is very important to me. Baseball is a sport with the biggest information about statistics. And we all know that statistics and analytics is most important when it comes to predicting future results. All successful businesses us it and I am a huge believer, that traditional handicapping without analytics will be dead soon too. So, when you have a lot of data, you can also make better predictions and analysis. It is much easier to analyze a sport with 2430 games and data sets than only 256. I hope you agree with me.
- Underdogs: An average bettor is afraid to bet on underdogs. I think the main reason for that is because most bettors bet a huge proportion of their bankroll (if they have one) and they are basically in a must-win situation every day. Underdogs, in general, are the teams, that have less than 50% of chance, and of course, they don’t want to be in a must-win situation, that has less than 50% of chance. Usually the public is heavily with favorites and usually the public loses a lot too. But in the MLB baseball league the difference between the best team and the worst team is not that big. The best teams will win around 60% of games and the worst teams will still win around 40% of games. There is a lot of underdog wins every day and because of that a lot of chance for us, who are looking for the value, not for the winners.
My own baseball betting strategy
Most of my plays are moneyline bets. I don’t like to make special bets and I rarely play totals. I stick with high limits bets, where I can invest more money. But before we go deeper in my baseball betting strategies, let’s explain a couple of other things, that are important.
We can look at one baseball game as one EVENT, right? And every event has two outcomes:
- Home win
- Away win
Every outcome will have some probability or if you like – Team A has a chance that will win this game and Team B has a chance to win this game.
Bookmakers estimate these probabilities and then they turn these probabilities into the odds (plus they add some margin of course, which is their “commission” they take every time when you make a bet). These odds are basically the price that you pay. I hope we all agree with that. We will also agree that the price that we pay is the key in betting and in our life too. It is not not the same if you buy the same car for $10k or for $30k, or the house for $300k or for $400k. It will be the difference between losing and winning if you don’t care about the price and your money.
Bookmakers will use this price and move the price based on different reasons (line movement). And our goal is to pay the right price, not the bad/wrong price. The overall concept is pretty similar to other investments or if you like betting is some kind of relative competition not only against bookmakers, but also against other bettors or the market.
If you constantly pay/invest in better price than the rest, then you can expect positive results. And this is the key. Let me explain this little bit, because this is very important.
Understand sports betting – couple of basic things
Imagine that bookmakers offer the odds on Boston Red Sox at +150 (decimal odds 2.50). If we ignore the margins for simplicity of this explanation, then +150 will represent the probability of 40%. In other words, this is the chance that bookmakers give to Boston. If they are correct, then Boston will win 40 out of 100 games if we can repeat this game (same situation, same players,…) many many times.
+150 is also the price that you pay. If you bet $100, you will get $150 for Boston. $150 of profit is your reward or the “product that you buy” if you like.
So the question is what is the right price to take. It is never about should we take Boston or not. But always if we should pay this price for Boston or not. This is the concept that is hard to understand for many bettors. Bettors focus on teams, potential winners, not on the numbers (prices). Sharp bettors always focus on the price, not on the teams.
But the question is how to know if the price is good or bad?
We will come to that…just keep reading, because understanding the concept will save you a lot of time, plus you will better understand how I bet.
Imagine, that you run a restaurant and you want to make a profit by selling Coca Cola. You need to know suppliers price for Cola and the price for which you can sell it in your restaurant later. Imagine that you want to sell Cola for $3 in your restaurant, but at the same time you don’t care what is the Coca Cola price, when you buy it. Supplier can sell this Cola for $4, but because you can sell it only for $3 in your restaurant, you will make a loss. Coca Cola can be a popular (team, winner, pick, lock,…), but if you can not make a profit by selling Cola on the long run, you should not invest in Cola. You should not bet on teams (Cola) but on the price and the discrepancy between suppliers price and the last price in your restaurant.
Let’s explain odds little bit more…
How to understand betting odds?
So, what are the odds? The odds are the prices, that you will pay when you bet. When you buy Cola, you pay that price. When you bet you also pay “some” price. The only difference is that if you have a Cola supplier, you can call him and he will tell you the price. At the same time you also know what is the price you can sell Cola in your restaurant. So it is pretty simple and you need one call. In sports betting the things are little bit more complicated, because most bettors have no idea how to estimate that first price. Picks are not the first price. Picks are always just “Team information” + “bookmakers odds information”. And many bettors blindly follow that second price.
What we need is to project our odds independently from bookmakers. Yes, even before bookmakers open the odds. We must know what is the price we are willing to pay. What is the last price we are willing to pay. If we can not do this we can walk like a blind bettor our whole life and it is only a matter of time, when bookmakers will start winning because of margins.
So, for example, if I estimate, that Boston Red Sox have a chance of 56.44% to win a game versus NY Yankees, my fair odds would be 1.77 (US odds: -130). In this case, I expect, that when I bet $1000 on Red Sox, bookmakers would pay me $770 for Red Sox win. And based on this number I decide if I will bet this game or not.
If bookmakers set the odds on Boston Red Sox 1.60 (US odds: -167), I will get only $600 if my bet (Red Sox) wins. In this case, I was expecting at least $770 in profit, but I get only $600. And this is not a value for me. I would stay away from this game.
On the other side, if bookmakers set the odds of 2.1 (US odds: +110) on the Boston Red Sox, I would get $1100 of profit, which is $330 more than I would expect. And this is something I call it a value. In this case, I would bet on Red Sox because I get more for my money. Of course if my estimations are correct. The discrepancy between your estimated probability and bookmakers probability is the value. If the value is positive and in your favour (you get more than you would expect), this is potentially good bet.
The concept of value is pretty simple and it is something you face every day. When you go to a store and you see two jackets, totally the same quality and you like them equally, the logical decision would be to buy the cheaper one. Why? Because you get more for the same money. And if you will do this constantly, you will save money. If you will look for the value constantly in sports betting, you will make a profit.
So your question is probably how I analyse games and how I come to my estimations….
How I estimate odds for my baseball betting system?
Betting Model – bet numbers
We have learned that in sports betting these prices are the odds. These odds (prices) can also change during the day or during the week, even month. So you must have an idea what is the good or bad price to pay and even when.
If the price on the market on Boston Red Sox is +150 (bookmakers give Boston 40% of chance), but you estimate somehow that fair price should be +108 (you give Boston 48% of chance), you will make a profit on the long run, despite both estimation are below 50%.
If your estimation is correct (you give Boston chance of 48%):
You will win 48 out of 100 games. Record: 48-52 at the odds of +150, Profit: +20 units
Of course you have no idea if your next game will fall into that 48 L or into 52 W. But because you are constantly looking for positive expect value in betting (+EV), you can expect the profit on the long run.
And this is the first answer on the question how to bet baseball and win: You must estimate the probabilities before you bet, because probabilities represent the prices, that you pay. Either you do this in your head, which is not recommended, because many bettors try to do it and bookmakers love it or you find the way how to use information and statistics and turn them into the odds.
I use my MLB BASEBALL BETTING SYSTEM, or even better we should call it baseball betting model that I reveal and teach you in my online betting course (start with free betting course here).
I simply estimate my own probabilities and then I turn those probabilities into the odds. Then I compare my odds with the bookmakers odds.
Here is the example of my table that I create every day during MLB season:
- Projections are my estimated numbers
- Value report is the discrepancy between my estimated numbers and bookmakers numbers.
Many bettors are looking for betting systems that win 97% of times and they are all based on high risk martingale (or different variations) systems. This is why I don’t like to call it a system, but rather a betting model, because I estimate the probability of every single game and every single game is analysed with the numbers. Then I bet only those games, where I think I have enough value.
Using my PREDICTIVE MODEL I project my own odds and probabilities for every single game in the MLB season. Then I simply compare my estimated odds with the bookmakers odds. The difference between the numbers is value. My baseball betting system idea is to compare team’s offense with other team’s defense, which is a combination of starting pitcher and bullpen.
When baseball season is on, I analyse every single game. Every day I calculate win % with the right starting pitcher and the formulas in the model, that I have created for baseball. Most of my data is automated and automatically pulled from the internet.
I just type:
- The name of the team
- Pitcher and his hand
And the model outputs winning percentages and my projected odds. Then I use Kelly criterium to estimate the optimal bet size.
Some useful mlb betting strategies you can use right away
Bullpen and statistics are important!
There are many mistakes rookie mlb bettors make, but two mistakes that I would like to point out here, are very first mistakes many make, when they start betting baseball:
- They use mainstream statistics, found on ESPN, Yahoo, and other mainstream sites: One nice example is ERA, which is probably most popular statistics in baseball and most bettors will rely only on it. ERA will show you how many runs one pitcher (or a team) allows per 9 innings. The problem with ERA is that is not the best future predictor. Much better are some others like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, whip, …
- They ignore bullpen: The average pitcher will pitch around 5.5 innings per game. The game has 9 innings and most bettors simply ignore a big part of the game (approx. 38% of the game) and this is the late game, where the game will be decided.
I don’t use mainstream statistics and I pay special attention to the bullpen too, because the game is usually decided late by bullpens.
How to bet baseball and win on the long run
Winning baseball betting requires extreme discipline, expert money management, and constant analysis and research.
I can teach you how to analyze games, how to create and use betting model, but there is also one other part that we all must fight on a daily basis: Work and discipline.
Sports betting is not a passive income, like many want to show you, because every game is unique and the line movement is so dynamic now, that it is almost not possible to follow the right prices, especially if you follow someone. You must understand that sharps never follow anyone and those who lose they either make bets based on gut feeling or they constantly look for picks. With the social media, this game of following and looking for that big winner is even more dangerous. Sports betting triggers the brain’s reward system which are linked primarily to the pleasure and motivation centers and releases dopamine into the body. This makes sports bettors feel excited while they’re taking risks. The story is even more complicated when bettors win or see other people win. Potential winning and dreams about winning lead to a lot of irrational decisions, which means a loss on the long run for a bettor and a win for a bookmaker.
This is why we also must pay a lot of attention discipline, focus and strategy/money management of course. If we can not control our emotions, then we will probably not stick to the strategy that we set before the season. I did this misake in the past and I saw bettors who had a good strategy for 10 months, made profit and they they lost everything in 1 month, because they lost focus, discipline and they became overconfident.
It is very important to pay attention to this part of betting as well.
I meditate every morning, which helps me to stay focused and I don’t watch games. Watching games is basically collecting the data, but with a lot of errors, because our brains can not properly collect the data from 5 games at a time if you watch them. There are some sites, that collect statistics about games much better. Plus if we take into account the hours of baseball games, it is not possible to watch all games. There is 2430 games and it is simply not possible to watch them all. And if you don’t watch them all the “same way” then you will make an error. While other gamblers try to watch games for couple of hours per day, I try to improve my knowledge. Imagine that you invest 3 hours of time into learning about betting instead of watching games for next 6 months. It can be a huge difference. Once the game starts, you can not do anything about it. It is only a dopamine game, which can lead to addiction. Watching games is in most cases waste of time, except if you bet live and you must be there.
Money Management – professional sports betting strategy
I use proportional money management Most of my bets are 1-2% of my current bankroll (I use adjusted Kelly criterium to estimate the bet size). If the value (adjusted kelly criterium) is bigger, then the bet is slightly bigger, if the value is lower, then the unit is little bit lower.
Intuition vs Analytics in MLB betting
Statistics and analytics are more and more important in baseball betting. This is something that I always repeat and in the world of dynamic sports betting, following other people’s picks is not the smartest idea. People who look for picks and follow other handicappers never make money in sports betting – at least not on the long run. Following other people’s picks is much more expensive than learning how to bet and creating your own unique betting system that will work for you. Funny thing is that those who disagree with this statement, usually don’t make any profit in betting. The line movement and betting world has changed so drastically that you can be 10 minutes late after your handicapper send picks and you will have a losing season. If you get the odds of 1.91 (-110) instead of 2.00 (+100) it is a big difference and it can be the crucial line between losing and winning. This is why I think (I am very confident about this) , that estimating the numbers and betting on your own is very important. After all bookmakers offers are expressed with the numbers. This is what is really important.
But still, I see a lot of handicappers, that say, that they have “good info” and “experience”. Of course, this can not work in the long run. Good info is easy to find with the internet and intuition, which is basically some sort of experience that can not be measured. Because of that a lot of bettors and also some old successful bettors can no longer make a profit.
A good example for me was a 2017 baseball season when I made 738 picks. 65 picks were made by my intuition, which means, that I didn’t follow my betting system and math model, but of course I tracked it all. In the past 20 years, I made a lot of profit with some extraordinary “so-called” intuition plays, but the times are changing. At least for me. Why? Because in 2017 I made -3,185 units of loss on my intuition plays. At the same time I made 673 picks that were based on my math model and I made a profit of +4,109 units on MLB baseball picks.
How do I know which is my intuition bet and bet that was supported by my baseball betting strategy? Because I tracked all bets and I wanted to see what are my results based on my model and my intuition. This is why I mark Intuition plays as GUT PLAYS (G) and my math model plays with (M)
HERE ARE ALL MY BETS IN 2017: DOWNLOAD MY MLB BETTING RESULTS
Chart 1: All MLB bets (including Intuition bets) vs baseball betting strategy bets
Performance with different odds
In the previous chart, I showed you how important is to use analytics and that intuition bets were disastrous. On the other side, my baseball betting model and strategies have an edge and I made a profit!
So I went a little bit deeper to see what results my MLB betting model has with the different odds and I found that the best yield would be if I would play the odds between 1.80 and 2.20. But then again, I would play less games and I would make less profit. So I also wanted to see what is the odds range with the best profit and the most profit I made with the odds between 1.75 and 2.85.
Chart 2: Betting Model vs Adjusted Betting Model
Chart 3: All Bets vs Adjusted Betting Model
Flat vs Kelly Criterium
I use (adjusted) kelly criterium to estimate my bet size. In a very simple explanation, when I see a bigger value, I bet more and when the value is lower, I bet less. Or if you like, when the difference between my estimated odds and the bookmakers odds is bigger in my favor, I bet more and when the difference is smaller I bet less.
I wanted to see the MODEL performance in the difference between flat strategy, where I would ignore kelly criterium and actual betting (with Kelly Criterium).
The average bet size was 1.777 units/game, so I couldn’t use 1 unit for flat, because the profit would be lower with flat analysis, right? This is why I use 1.777 units/game for flat analysis. I also didn’t take a proportion betting strategy for this comparison.
FLAT BETTING STRATEGY (1.777 Units/game):
ACTUAL KELLY CRITERIUM BETTING STRATEGY:
As you see, both baseball betting strategies would make a profit with my system, but still, if I use kelly criterium when I estimate actual bet size has better results.
How much money would you make using this betting strategy in 2017?
I can not imagine sports betting without using analytics anymore. My MLB Betting System (betting model) is the heart of my sports betting.
Because I estimate the winning percentages for the games and then I calculate my own odds. This is the only way I see how to beat bookmakers.
But there is a big difference between some so called betting systems and my betting model strategy. Most bettors usually use martingale-based systems where they try different odds, different stakes, etc… But they don’t estimate winning percentages or spreads for games. The same is with the trends. Trends will tell you what happened in the past, but will not tell you if this will happen in the future and if you don’t include them somehow into the model, they have no predictive power. If Red Sox are 6-1 in last home games, when they played in the rain and the other team had green shoes, that doesn’t mean, that they will be 7-1 in the same situation. It is complete nonsense.
With my baseball betting strategy (model), I look at each game independently and I see one game as one event, where I estimate future probabilities for outcomes.
If you used my math model and if you stick strictly with the model, you would make a profit with a combination of progressive strategy and my adjusted Kelly Criterium you would make:
- 673 Picks
- 338 Wins
- 316 Losses
- 19 Pushes
- +3.17% of yield
If you used my math model and if you stick strictly with the model, you would make a profit with a combination of flat (not proportional)MLB betting strategy and my adjusted Kelly Criterium and if you are $100 bettor you would make:
- 673 Picks
- 338 Wins
- 316 Losses
- 19 Pushes
- +77.64 Profit
- +6.49% of yield
Despite progressive will outperform flat in the long run, if you used flat strategy with a combination of Kelly criterium for bet size, that was the best option in 2017.
I always recommend, that if you are a $100 bettor (1 unit = $100), then you must have $10,000 of starting bankroll. In this case you would make +$7,764 of profit. Or in other words, if your starting investment is $10,000 at the start of MLB season, your ROI (return on investment) at the end of the season would be +77.64%.
If you played the odds between 1.75 and 2.85, then you would make +$10,520 of profit.
Major league baseball handicapping 2018-2020
In 2018 I have improved my betting model, betting strategies and I pay more attention to closing line value. According to bookmakers this is the most important factor how they filter sharp bettors from losing bettors.
So what is a closing line in baseball betting?
Closing line is the last line (or the odds if you like) just before the game will start. It includes all the information and it represent the most efficient price on the market. If you can beat it, you have a good chance to be a winner on the long run.
- Example: You bet on Red Sox +145 and just before the game starts the odds on Boston are at +110 -> THIS IS GOOD, YOU BEAT THE LINE
- Example: You bet on Red Sox +145 and just before the game starts the odds on Boston are at +175 -> THIS IS BAD, YOU WERE BEHIND
Here is what Pinnacle, which is one of the sharpest says about the importance of closing line: “According to the efficient market hypothesis the closing odds are on average more accurate than the opening odds in predicting the probability of how a fixture will play out. One of the main concerns among successful bettors is whether their success represents a genuine edge over the bookmaker or simply a stroke of luck. By tracking your ability to beat the closing odds, you have a measurable way in your hands to differentiate between reliable strategy and blind luck. A consistent track record of beating the closing odds is, therefore, an indicator of consistent profits in the long run.”
If the yield will tell us about betting efficiency, CLV (closing line value) is a good indicator what you can expect in the future. In other words if you take some odds and if these odds drop most of the time before the game starts, you can expect positive results in the future, because you beat closing line. If the odds go against you most of the time, maybe it is a time to change something.
Tracking closing line value is something every bettor should do. I am giving you free downloadable tracker and you can use it for yourself. Once you know this information, there is no excuse not to track CLV anymore.
You can download FREE betting tracker that also tracks CLV (closing line value) here.
In 2019 I wanted to see my CLV numbers based on the value. So I wanted to see do I beat the line more often if I bet on the games with bigger +EV (positive expected value):
I saw that the bigger the ADJK value (if I am more selective), I also beat the line more times (75% of times).
baseball bets 2020
During COVID-19 I decided to be little bit more selective, because we had a strange season with some adjusted rules, without fans, with big gap between 2 seasons, no DH rule, some other new rules (extra innings),…
So, I decided to take betting selections, where the discrepancy between my estimated numbers and bookmakers numbers are little bit bigger – adjk 1.80 or bigger.
In 2020 I started to track also what would be my record if I bet on opening odds, which is possible once you have your own betting model, because anyone who follow picks is always late. And I wanted to see what would be the record if I would bet on closing odds. This is also one of the mistakes many bettors make. They wait until the last minute before the game starts and then they bet on most efficient lines, which are based on theory not possible to beat especially in sharp markets.
The difference between taken odds and closing odds is 3.22 units. The difference between opening odds and closing odds based on my betting selections is 4.90 units.
At the start of the season, I started to bet little bit earlier than usually and most of the negative xCLV (versus closing pinnacle odds without margins) came from that period. Later in the season this number was much better.
So I finished with +16.03 units
Which is pretty good.
Overall MLB betting results since I run this site:
It depends how much we bet on games. There are bettors who bet only $10 and there are bettors who constantly bet $10,000 per game. But if your base unit was $1000, +123.23 units represent the profit of $123,230 of profit since 2016.
The question is always the same: how to bet baseball and win
The question is much much bigger. Every day bettors and handicappers all around the world look for gambling advice, sports profit system, sports betting strategy, baseball betting trends, baseball tips and picks, mlb parlays, mlb picks and all kind of different quick ways to make money.
In last 20 years of betting I tried many different ways how to make money in betting, but unfortunately there is no shortcuts. Every single game must be analysed and researched and what is very important to understand, before you bet you must estimate your own probabilities. Probabilities represent the price that you are willing to pay. Without doing this, we just guess the price and this is what bookmakers love – guessing.
Because they have the edge. Every time when we bet, they take a commission (juice, vig, margins). Most bettors have no clue about what price should be paid and most gamblers just guess. It is only a matter of time, when their results will regress to mean and they start losing.
Before I started with my site, I saw this huge problem in sports betting world – to many bettors focus on picks and following (which will never work) and they simply don’t focus on the knowledge and building their own betting strategy, betting system or even a sports betting spreadsheet.
This is why I have decided to create this webpage to help bettors, who want to make a next step and start creating their own unique betting system, instead of being follower.
“Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.”
One very important thing: Underdog Chance is not picks service and I don’t sell any picks. Focusing on picks (selling, buying or even only following free picks) is bad for you and we all can write our own successful sports betting story.
If you pay for picks, you will pay from $100 up to $1000 per month for their picks. Maybe you win, maybe you lose, most bettors don’t have an edge anyway and nobody can guarantee a winning month or even a season.
When we take into account odds dropping and how hard is to follow other people’s picks on a daily basis, the only way to make money is to learn how to bet on your own. I am pretty confident about this statement.
Whatever you decide, I hope my view on baseball betting will help you somehow and check my social media @underdogchance or youtube channel to get the updates about my work, results and new betting systems, models, strategies.
But if you like my work and want to learn more:
Sports Bettors are more connected than ever before. You can basically find the information in one minute with your phone and you can connect with other sports bettors in seconds via social media.
There is still a lot of very bad information about betting out there… but on the other side there is also a lot of great information about betting, many very good bettors, handicappers, sharps, investors,…or whatever you name them, who share their experiences, share their knowledge, share their views and I think (this is my personal observation) that more and more people see that following picks is not the right way in dynamic sports betting World, where seconds can decide if you catch the right price or not. And this can be the difference between losing and winning on the long run. More and more people look for betting knowledge instead of turning themselves into another followers who will never make any profit.
Which is great of course.
If we exclude all the bad information and all the picks from social media handicappers, who throw picks like it is a flip coin experiment, we have some great source of information too. Joseph Buchdahl, Pinnacle Articles, Spanky, Betting Podcasts,…you can find good information if you know what to look for.
Topics about closing line value, betting simulations, algorithms, distributions, betting steams, investing, projecting the lines, betting models,…that’s all great and all these people do amazing job with these topics.
But there is one BIG problem…
Most bettors don’t understand the concept of 2 numbers. At least they can not connect this to betting, despite they use this concept in everyday’s life. I spend a lot of times to understand why they can not understand this and how they can not connect this to betting, but I still didn’t find the right answer how they can not understand this simple thing. One of the possible reasons is the way how our brains operate and the amount of dopamine that is released in such situations, so they can not think rationally anymore. I realised this when I was talking to people who have math background and they still look for “winners and picks” in sports betting, instead of looking for the value. There were situations, where explained these things to a person and it was all clear, but later this person went back to looking for “winners and picks”. But of course the majority of bettors simply struggle to understand this simple concept in sports betting.
Today I will try to explain this on the most simple way possible.
Skipping sports betting basics is the first Problem
I respect what many experts do in this field trying to explain the numbers, the market, writing books, explaining all the things about statistics, numbers, closing lines, etc… but we must understand that an average bettor struggle to understand the very first basic thing.
Explaining the theory of efficient market, closing line value and poission distribution for an example is completely useless for most bettors if they can not even understand the concept of 2 numbers. It is too complex for most bettors and unfortunately most people will not even read this article until the end, which is the problem of modern society, where we want quick things, where we want all the money without investing anything (time, money, effort). This is how it is, but I think that we all must understand the concept of two numbers, because it will change your whole perspective and give you the chance to make a first step into the World of Successful Betting..
Once bettors will completely understand this simple concept, that is used in their everyday’s life anyway, then they can start digging into the market, numbers, bookmakers,…
But without this…you have only two reasonable things to do. First is to stop betting, because you will not win on the long run – it’s not that easy anyway. Or second, you don’t bother with betting theory, with other people’s picks (most of them don’t have edge anyway) and simply try your luck. This is also one way. Don’t make a big deal out of it. You don’t even need to spent any time to watch, follow or read anything about betting theory and you can still hope that you will win because of luck. And if you win because of luck, don’t forget to take profits too.
But if you are just little bit serious about betting, the very first thing you must understand is…
The Concept of Two Numbers in Everyday’s life
When I was at college, one of the main problems of very smart professors was, that they didn’t know how to explain complex things in a simple or dumb way. And I am sure this is the problem with many smart betting experts, who have great knowledge, but they can not explain things on very easy way. They can simply not identify with an average person and they simply don’t understand that some people don’t understand the things, that they think are very easy. But his is how it is…probably everywhere.
Fortunately, I am not that smart :-) and I am not the best in the World so I hope that my dumb explanation will change your whole betting perspective.
So, you want to make money in your life? Right? Let’s check quickly couple of real life examples and I believe that everyone will agree with this.
EXAMPLE 1: Car selling
What do you need to do if you want to make a profit by selling cars?
The Answer is very simple: You need to buy a car for $5,000 and sell it for $10,000. The difference between these two numbers is your profit (we exclude taxes, etc… for simple explanation). I hope you agree with me. If you live in one city, where you can sell the car for $10,000 you must be smart to find another city (or person) who is willing to sell you the car for $5,000 because if you buy it for $15,000, you will not make any profit. This difference can be called your value. And this is the only way to make a profit in car selling – to find the difference between two numbers. One number is in your city and other number is in another city. We can call this the concept of two numbers. We are not going here into the details how you come to this numbers, because we first must understand the importance of this simple concept.
EXAMPLE 2: Stock Market
What do you need to do if you want to make a profit in stock market?
The answer is very simple again: Buy low – sell High. Or in other words, you must buy stocks for one price and sell them for higher price later. But you need to have 2 numbers again. The very first is the number, when you buy stocks and the second is when you sell it.
EXAMPLE 3: Coca Cola
You run a restaurant and you want to sell Coca Cola with the profit. What do you need to do?
The answer is simple: First you decide for which price you will sell Coca Cola (we are not going into the details here how you set this price) and then you must find a supplier who is willing to sell this Coca Cola for lower price (the second price). The difference between these two numbers is your profit. You sell Cola for $3, you find a supplier that is willing to sell you Cola for $1.20 and you make a profit of $1.80 by selling each Cola.
What we see here is that we always have 2 numbers to compare.
When it comes to selling Cola you can simply call a supplier and he will tell you the second price and then you see if you make enough difference for your profit. I hope you agree with me.
Let’s explain this concept in sports betting…
The Concept in Sports Betting is The Same
The final goal in sports betting is profit. There are some “masochists” like me :-) , who love betting and the numbers and writing such things, but in general most bettors are here just for one thing – profit.
And to make a profit (anywhere) we need to create the difference between 2 numbers. I hope we agree with this. There are different ways how to come to this numbers, but at the end of the day you must understand what are you paying and you must have that difference. Some people use betting models and projections, some people say “that they pay the right price”. But the concept is the same. If you say, that you must pay the right price, you have in your mind the second number that is compared to bookmakers number.
If you can not create both numbers you will not win at selling cars, in stock market and not even at your restaurant selling Coca Cola. And you will not win at sports betting either. We are not talking here how to come to these numbers and what are the right prices, but the raw concept, that most people miss.
What are 2 numbers in sports betting?
I hope we understand now the concept of two numbers in such businesses and how important is to find the difference between 2 numbers. So the question now is – what has this to do with sports betting?
In sports betting if you want to win long term you need to be disciplined, you need to have strong money management, you need to beat the closing line,…
…but everything starts with “creating” the difference between two numbers. In sports betting we call this – finding a value.
First number is very easy to find. You can just open your bookmakers account and you check the odds. Odds are nothing else than the prices on the market. We will not go here into the topic of margins and implied probabilities, because this is not our topic today…. but what you need to understand (and you already understand this – I am sure) is that the odds are prices on the market. You can look at the odds as the price of a Milk in your market. You step into the market, you see the price of the Milk and then you decide if you will pay this or not.
The same is in betting. You check the lines and you decide if you will bet or not. When bookmakers offer Red Sox -120 (or in decimal odds 1.83) that means, that you MUST PAY $120 in order to get your product (profit of $100). This is the price you pay. And this is the first number.
If we decide that we will not just drink Milk, but we want to make a profit, then we need to estimate somehow the second number and create that difference between 2 numbers.
If you want to make a profit in sports betting long term, you need to start paying good price. Not looking for winner, but looking for good price. Like you must start buying Cola from Supplier for lower price, that you will sell later.
The “good deal” with Red Sox -120 (1.83) you will make only, if you think that Red Sox should be 1.50 (-200) for example. In this case you say this:
“I am willing to pay $150 for this product (profit of $100)”
but then you see that someone (bookmakers) are willing to pay you more for the same money. Or if you like, for the same product, you must pay less. So once you estimated your number and after you see bookmakers number you can say…
“I am willing to pay this product (profit of $100) $150, but hey they are willing to sell me this product for only $120. I will pay less that I am willing to pay. This is great!”
So you have 2 numbers. You have 2 numbers to create a profit. And this is the basic of everything. And this is the simple thing that most bettors in the World miss.
The first number is always bookmakers number
The second number is your number.
This is why you see some very good bettors who play underdogs, despite an underdog means, that the other team has better chance. For example: A bettor is willing to pay NYY at +120 (pay 100 to win 120), but then he sees, that bookmaker is willing to give him more for his money (NYY +190 for example. Which means that they pay $100 and get $190, instead of paying $100 for $120).
It is always the concept of two numbers. When experienced handicapper says, that Lakers -7.5 is good price to buy he has his second number either in his head, either he estimated this number somehow with betting model or any other method. We are not going here into the details how bettors come to these numbers, but the concept is the same.
The concept of two numbers is the concept of value. If you pay bad price, if you can not create the difference of two numbers in your favour, you will not become a profitable bettor. Or if I am more precise and we include the phenomenon of survivorship bias and luck factors, you will have very very little chance to ever make money in sports betting. Period.
The Problem of Picks
I hope we agree now, that we need to have 2 numbers in order to make the difference and then this leads to profit. I hope we all understand this. The odds are the prices on betting market that you pay. You must know what you are paying. These odds are expressed with the numbers and to make a profit you must find the second number, discrepancy between numbers and then this will lead to a profit. How you will you find the second number is your problem now and we will not talk about this, but recognition that you need two numbers will show you the right path from losing to potentially winning.
So here we come to the big problem of sports betting picks or sports betting tips if you like.
If you listen to the best bettors in the World, they will tell you how minutes and even seconds can be the difference when to bet for which price and how. On the other side we have bettors who are constantly looking for picks and how to become followers and what is funny thing even after reading this, they will keep doing the same thing.
We often see something like this
- Play on Red Sox +132 (plus some written analysis)
- Bet 3 units Red Sox 2.32
- Red Sox ML
- Red Sox Whale Play
What are these information?
All these information are only THE FIRST NUMBER. This is not the second number. But first!!
When I say Play Red Sox 2.32 we have bookmakers number that is taken from bookmakers site:
Red Sox 2.32 – this is (THE FIRST) information taken from bookmakers. This is not the second number yet.
But we all agree (I hope) that for making money you need to create the second number. For me it is very strange when I see people betting on teams without creating the second number. I am not talking here about the method how you come to this number, but betting without creating the second number. It is the same if you would promise someone a car for $10,000, when at the same time you have no idea for which price you can buy this car. It is complete gambling and dumb guessing.
In order to make a profit you need to establish a method, where you can estimate the second number. When you sell Cola you can call a supplier, but when it comes to betting you need that second number and you need to get it somehow.
…No, picks are not “SECOND” number. Picks are ALWAYS the first number. When you see pick “Red Sox +132” on social media, this is just the information that is taken from bookmakers. Someone just copy/pasted information from bookmakers. You must ask him, what is his second number.
Because the basic concept of making money (even changing your wife to new wife) is comparing two things. In the game of making a profit is always comparison of two numbers.
All these betting picks, betting previews, betting analysis without the second number are basically useless. Most bettors and handicappers don’t have the second number. And most bettors will lose on the long run.
Betting Projections – The Future
Betting World is getting smarter and smarter and we all know that betting is a relative competition against others. So, the level of knowledge and the way how we bet also changed during the years. More and more bettors understand how important is to pay the right price at the right time. You can be 5 minutes late every time and you are out of the game, once you make enough bets. Reading analysis 2 hours and then waiting for the email or betting on closing lines, whatever your social media handicapper tell you will not make any profit for you. And people who disagree with this probably never make any money in sports betting. Every person can check his lifetime betting account for himself and if focusing on one number was profitable for you so far. I am not here to judge, but just say what I see after observing thousands of bettors and followers in last 20 years, including myself. Today I want to give you the value with information and my view, that I strongly believe will change your betting experience forever. And then you can do with this whatever you want.
Betting analysis and previews are great entertainment, the same as picks. Taking into consideration, that most bettors can not connect simple “two number concept” to betting, sharing picks and writing betting analysis can only be great way to build a community and attract bettors. That’s all.
But the real value in the future will be in that SECOND NUMBER. The concept of 2 numbers is the key and the more bettors will understand this simple concept, the more bettors will focus on how to find that second number, instead of looking for handicappers that will give them that FIRST NUMBER only.
I am not talking here how to estimate the second number, because this is another topic and this is A Journey for each and every one of you, but for god’s sake – we all must start understanding this simple concept:
- The odd are the prices on the betting market that you must pay
- You will make profit only if you find the difference between two numbers and you must pay the price in your favour
- To pay lower price you must know both numbers (you can not compare only one number)
- To know second price you must find the way how to estimate that price
- Once you create the difference between 2 numbers, you have a chance to make a profit
- You can call this – A VALUE
People who can not understand this simple concept will have big big problems making money in sports betting.
With the internet and social media, many handicappers were born. Most of them don’t show the second number and most of them never educate an average bettor about simple concepts that everyone should understand. But inside chaotic betting world and all kind of “picks”, “whale plays”, “guaranteed plays”, “sharp world champions bettors”, there were born many who provide a lot of very good content, despite most of this content is too complex for an average guy. There are also people who share information that will make you a better bettor. And I believe that the power of quality information will hit the level, where an average bettor will understand, that picks represent only FIRST information. And this is usually the information of TEAM (or other possible bet information) and the information of the odds that is copied from bookmakers – In the best scenario. In many cases bettors share only “Red Sox ML” type information. They don’t even include the first number. It is like telling your wife to buy a car – Mercedes. But you don’t tell her for which price. And the dealer can sell her the same thing (same bet, same pick, same team) for double price. And with double price you will not make a profit.
We need to start talking in terms of TWO numbers. The concept of two numbers is the key for profit.
- Bookmakers offer Boston Red Sox +120 (first number)
- My projected is Boston Red Sox -130 (second number)
I call this bettingprojections or projected odds. The game and the focus now should not be anymore where to find picks or who to follow, but how to improve methods of creating projected numbers and how to find the method, that will estimate my numbers so, that my betting decisions will find +EV and beat the closing line. But this is another topic – BUT the first step into the World of successful betting is to understand the concept of comparing two numbers.
My last words:
My dear sports bettor, You already understand the concept of two numbers. At least I hope so. Please sit down for a minute and use your own brain. Don’t listen to me and don’t listen to any other person on the Planet. Just ask yourself what is the concept of making money. How you make a profit? You can use any example you like. Even goats and sheep selling on market.
You will realise that the concept is very simple. You must compare two numbers – always. The difference in your favour is your potential profit. This is the first thing to fully accept and understand. Of course you will not win every game. Of course creating a method to estimate that second number will not be that easy, but there is NO EXCUSE to not understand the very basic concept of making money in sports betting.
And this is the concept of two numbers. You can call this a value or whatever you like and I wanted to explain this today on a little bit different way. On a simple way, without adding into the conversation probabilities, statistics or something like that.
What many betting experts don’t understand is that many bettors struggle with simple math. I personally saw situations, where bettors think that 2+2*3=12. It is of course NOT 12, but 8. Explaining Monte Carlo simulations to most bettors is completely useless, when they struggle with basic math. This is why we must start with the concept of two numbers. Understanding this is the starting point of those who will have a chance to win in sports betting and those who will not have any chance.
MLB baseball season 2020 will start in less than 10 days and this situation now is one of the strangest ever for every baseball bettor. Some people say, this is bad, some people say this is good. But honestly we don’t know what is good or bad. We can only say, this is the situation we never met before, but if this is good or bad we will see. The only thing we can do is to focus on things we can control. And when it comes to betting, this is the analysis of the game, selecting right bookmaker, staying disciplined, etc…
We must understand one thing. The betting concept is the same, no matter what you bet. There will be the odds, which will represent the prices on the market and you will need to estimate your prices, compare them with market prices and at the end outsmart the market.
But to do this we need to take a look at some new things, that could be important when real-time betting comes.
In this article I will try to explain some new things about MLB season 2020 and what you should pay attention to when it comes to betting.
COVID situation and the lineups
So the first thing which is important is that we will need to keep checking health status of players, because they are tested regularly. Some players have already decided to opt out of the 2020 season (Ian Desmond, Mike Leake, Ryan Zimmerman and Joe Ross).
To use lineup based betting models and analysis will be even more important. There will be a separate COVID-19 injured list for players who test positive. It can happen, that some players get tested positive and the analysis must be adjusted accordingly. The player can go in quarantine and the team will need to play without him or it can happen, that more players from the same team must go in quarantine. So we can have a situation, where in one week we have very strong team and then the next week, they will play without key players. So, if you use teams numbers only, you can make a big mistake.
Schedule: Short 60 game season
MLB season will start much later and with different spring training. There was a routine for every baseball bettor before every MLB season. First spring training, players getting in shape, even some betting on spring training games, then I usually wait couple of games to get familiar with the new season and then we start betting.
Well… this season will be little bit different. The first regular game will be on July 24 between New York Yankees and Washington Nationals. It is basically 4 months later and this means 4 months bigger break for players.
Some players are probably not going to be in the best shape and there were already some news, that some didn’t come out of the quarantine in best condition.
Shorter season will also force teams to make less mistakes and play very game little bit seriously. Regular baseball season is 2,430 games, plus the postseason. Every team plays 162 games and they always had more room for mistakes. They could rest players more and every win was not “must Win” situation. Well this season, the mindset will be definitely different. There is no room for a lot of errors and things can change quickly. One team can fall in bad streak, at the same time they start playing next games without their best players and here we have completely wild and unexpected season with some underdogs winning.
What should we do as bettors?
I will simply analyse game by game. Situation by situation and estimate my numbers with the information that I have. And then of course compare my estimations with bookmakers numbers. Step by step – single games.
DH Rule also for National Teams
In baseball we have 2 leagues. One is National League and the other one is American League. This is especially interesting for people who are not that familiar with baseball. But the rules are little bit different and American League teams they could use DH (designed hitter) for hitting, while National League must hit with the pitcher.
Why is this important?
Because pitchers are in general very bad hitters and this changed whole dynamics (and statistics). Well, this season all teams will use DH. In general this mean, that we can expect slightly better hitting from National teams.
So, if you use lineup betting models or lineup betting based analysis, you will need to adjust this based on the current lineups and instead of pitcher hitting, we need to take into calculation DH for National Teams.
Runner on second in extra innings
One completely new and I think pretty cool rule is that in extra inning teams will start with player on second base. How this will affect on betting?
8.6% games went into extra innings in 2019 and with starting a player on second games will simply finish earlier. Which is pretty cool idea, because we saw 15+ innings games and then players need to play the next day…so this is not bad idea. At least this is my personal opinion.
I will not make any big changes because of this, because 8.6% of extra innings games we already saw and once they are in extra innings, teams must score before the game is finished. With runner on second base, they will just accelerate the process and give teams to score early and finish games quickly. If you are interested into learning about RE24 (or run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states) you can read it here.
Of course, there will be a difference who is on the second base, because if you have Hamilton on second base who can run, the score is almost sure. But the rule is: “The runner will be the player in the batting order immediately preceding that half-inning’s leadoff hitter (or a pinch runner).”
So we don’t know who exactly will run and what kind of strategy will coaches have in these situations. I will not make some extra changes because of this rule. Some % of all games will go to extra time and in extra time teams always score. With the runner on 2nd base this process will be quicker, not necessary that they score more runs, but the games will finish sooner.
RP must face three
This is another interesting rule. All relief pitchers must face a minimum of three batters (unless the inning ends). In the past coaches could change pitcher for every batter depends on situation. Right now it looks like they must face at least 3 batters. This is definitely small advantage for hitters.
Some other interesting rules and changes
- Regionally based schedule
- Expanded rosters at the start of the season
- Each team will have a chance to have 30 active players, which will go to 28 after 15 days and then to 26. There is no limit on the pitchers on active rosters.
- There will be no restrictions on position players pitching in 2020.
- If weather forces a game to be cut short before it is official, it will be continued at a later date rather than started from scratch.
What about betting?
Bookmakers without “pitchers listed” information
Some bookmakers already announced, that they will not list starting pitchers. Of course I can not say this for every single bookmaker, but definitely many will decide to offer bets, where they will offer bets without pitchers listed.
Why is this important?
Pitcher is the most important player when it comes to betting. Pitcher dictates the line. The line can go from -120 to -180 just because team decided to change pitcher just before the game, while all other players stay the same. And the price is the key when it comes to betting.
When bookmakers offer “pitcher must start” type of bets, then your bet with this pitcher is locked. If the team changes the pitcher the bet was canceled.
I wouldn’t say that this is bad or good. As I mentioned above we must daily check who will play and check players status. We must monitor starting pitchers carefully and once the price is locked by bookmakers this can be the advantage for serious player.
Sports betting is a relative competition against others. We all know that. It is not some “absolute” game versus bookmakers, but against the market, against other players as well. And most bettor will not go deep into the details, most bettors will not track carefully daily news and most bettors don’t use any estimations or lineup based numbers.
I think this could be the advantage for some serious players who will go deep with the information this season.
How will I bet MLB 2020?
MLB baseball is my favourite sport to bet and analyse – at least so far. There is many reasons fo that and this is definitely also one of the sharpest sports markets out there. A lot of people complain how hard baseball is, which I understand, because once you have 2430 games in one season and if you make hundreds of bets it is much harder to fake with “luck factor” and “we are on a run of 19-8 in last 27 games” statements. I hope we understand this – the more bets you make the harder is to fake it or if you like – to keep good (or bad) results if you don’t have the edge.
I will use my MLB sports betting model, where I will estimate my own lines (odds).
After I estimate my own odds, then I will compare my odds with bookmakers odds and then I will bet the games, where I will find enough big discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers.
This is example of my table (pitchers, teams and the odds below are randomly chosen for this purpose):
The model will calculates my projected odds (both decimal and US) and automatically compare with the bookmakers odds, that I put in the model from the bookmaker. With adjusted kelly criterium, the model will calculate the “discrepancy” which I call adjk value. I will look for the discrepancy of 1.50 or more (thinking to go bigger to 1.80 and be more selective this season).
If the discrepancy is 1.50 or more, then this will be a qualified bet. If not, I will stay away. And this is how I will qualify and select bets.
Every day I will check the lineups, covid status of players and other injuries to adjust the lineups. I will do this as soon as I get the information.
Every lineup is created with 9 players and every player stats will be separated on how he plays against left handed and right handed pitchers. And then in late innings how he hit overall, because we can not be sure if he will face LHP or RHP late when he faces bullpen, so the most optimal way is to use overall hitting numbers (vs rhp/lhp) later in the game.
I will of course track every single bet against opening odds, against taken odds and against closing odds. If you need a free betting tracker you can download it here. Combination of more stats that you track for yourself will tell you how good you are and if your betting can be profitable in the future. Profit or ROI alone are insufficient information about betting results. Especially if we have small sample size.
Betting model is important to get the information of the value. I hope we all understand the concept of +EV and I can not imagine betting without estimation my numbers. If we want a profit we need always two numbers. One is bookmakers number – for example Boston Red Sox +145, the second is your estimated number, for example Boston Red Sox +101. Once you see that you get more than you expect, this is called a value.
Picks alone hold only one information – the name of the team and the bookmakers odds.
If we want to sell coca cola with the profit, we must know the price for which we can sell cola (example $2.50) and for which price we can buy it from supplier (example $0.80). In this case the profit for you is $1.70. You can call this “your value”. Every time when we want to make a profit we must compare two prices. With cola price, we can simply call our supplier and he will tell us the price. In sports betting we must estimate the second number somehow. Maybe some people can do this in their head or with intuition, but I don’t have this superhuman power and I need a model to calculate the numbers for 2430 mlb games every year.
All my projections will be posted in our membership group and all my bets will be posted on my Youtube channel.
I tried different social media channels to show projections and my bets, but I believe Youtube is the best way, because the numbers must be commented. And the only way I can do this is on youtube. Videos will be always posted before the first games will start. I will look to post them at least 30 minutes before first games starts.
There will be also days, when I will take a day or two off. But I will comment daily what I am doing and in which direction the season will go.
Of course all my picks will be free. I don’t sell picks. I want to show my work, stay transparent and keep in touch with the people who follow my work. I don’t believe in constantly and blindly following picks – it is completely wrong focus and one of the biggest reasons why so many people are disappointed in betting. But this is a topic for another time and I talked about this many times in my other articles and videos.
I wish you a good season. Cheers,
If you want to learn how I build a betting models in google sheets and start betting on your own, subscribe to FREE BETTING VIDEO COURSE.
At the end of 2019 nobody expected, that in next couple of months all leagues will be shut down. Sports betting is a huge business now, we all know that. No matter if you bet for fun or professionally, shutting down all leagues would be a nightmare for most bettors all over the World. And this is exactly what happened in the first part of 2020 because of COVID-19. Biggest sports markets were shut down and most bettors stop betting or turned to online poker or even gambling.
The most popular events to bet on are still “sports” events. Which makes sense, once you understand how betting market works. If you are a bookmaker and you want to make money, you need three things: running events, people who are emotionally involved and the edge that you create for yourself (margins/juice). The big pool of sports, leagues and their fans is perfect for that. We have a lot of sports fans (mostly men), who love sports and they somehow create false feeling that they know sport, which will help them to make money when they make bets. So it is perfect formula for bookmakers. There is a lot of sports, there is a lot of sports fans and even a lot of betting communities, who gather a lot of people. The only thing needed for bookmakers is that money is rolling. Because of commission, they win.
I hope that we all understand this now.
If there would be something else, that is much more popular than traditional sports, where we could gather people, who would place money, get involved, we would probably bet something else. It could be trees growing, reality shows, even porn movies or whatever is popular. More people involved, more money turned around, more profit for bookmakers.
And so far, the best market was sports market. You can easily gather a lot of people who love sports and at the same time you give them false illusion that betting is about sports, not about numbers and investing. With this they did a very smart job to turn whole sports communities into “illusional investors” who place a lot of money on sports events, where at the same time they have no clue about probabilities, odds, market,… And this is the game, where they will always win. This can be easily visible anywhere. Just check any betting community, where everyone wants to share picks, have an opinion about the game, about players, about sports,… but not much knowledge about betting basics and betting market.
Sports betting has very little to do with the sport alone. Sport is just the “tool” taken from bookmakers, because they know they can easily gather a lot of people, who will emotionally put a lot of money.
Betting, where the motivation is money has almost nothing to do with the sports alone and here is why
If you want to win at sports betting you must outsmart the market. I hope we agree with that. I also didn’t discover hot water here, but from time to time it is ok to remind ourselves what we are doing. Bookmakers offer the odds, which are nothing else, than probabilities turned into the numbers and this is the price we pay – you pay. And to win, we must pay “better” prices than the rest. The same principle is everywhere when we want to make money. Either you buy stocks, you must buy them low and sell them high, or you buy coca cola for $0.70 and sell it in your restaurant for $2.50. Making money in such kind of business is always about these prices and how you estimate them, plus compare them with market and then execute.
Everything else is either gambling (that will not work for most people) or sports fans, who will end up with negative lifetime balance. Unfortunately.
And because of this problem – not understanding the difference between betting and sports (fans), many bettors had big problems during COVID-19, because they thought that they don’t know how to bet anything else, where in fact if you don’t have the edge, if you don’t look at betting as investing you would end with negative balance anyway (if you make enough bets, when the noise settle down), no matter if you bet on your favourite football league, baseball, esports or even on reality show or trees growing. With no edge, with no numbers, with no estimating odds results will regress to the mean and this is where bookmakers win because of margins.
So the problem is that most bettors are basically not bettors, but sports fans. They are emotionally connected to “their” sports/leagues and this is what bookmakers love.
But the World is changing. New things are coming. We don’t know exactly what the future will bring. Viruses, wars, new generation, that likes more playing video games, than playing ball outside… and in the future bookmakers will also adjust their game.
If we understand that the only thing bookmakers need is a lot of people that are emotionally involved, they can switch from sport to reality shows (for example) at anytime, if they will see that this will generate more bets and turnover. I am not saying this will happen soon, because sports is not going anywhere yet, but it is very important to understand, that the only thing they need are bettors who are willing to bet their money. No matter if this is on sport, trees growing, porn movies or anything else. Because every time you bet, they take commission, no matter if you win or lose that bet. Because of margins they have unfair advantage. And the more people bet, the more commission they take.
Bettor vs Sports Fan
True bettor (investor) will always adjust. Because sport fan is emotionally involved to his sport, his league or his team. I constantly get the emails like… I like to bet soccer. I like to bet basketball. I played basketball when I was young…
It doesn’t matter. I am bettor. I am not interested in sports talk. If playing football would be correlated to betting quality, then Leo Messi and Ronaldo will be the best sports handicappers in the World in next few years. Successful betting has almost nothing to do with sports. Sports is like a whore used by bookmakers, so they can build what they need and exactly what I am talking here.
Once this is clear in your mind, you have a chance to win at betting. No matter if sports betting or booboolu betting, whatever this is. It is still betting and the concept is the same.
Most “sports bettors” talks, forums, chat groups, facebook groups,… has nothing to do with betting. Let’s be honest about this. This is all more sports talk. Sports fans talk about players, about excitement, about coaches,… professional bettors always talk about the numbers and the value. This is the key difference.
The real question is – is your motivation fun or profit?
If the motivation is profit, then your only three questions are:
- what is the market price
- how do I calculate my price, so I can compare it with the market
- how do I find the value (+EV = money)
The bettor or investor if you like, whose motivation is money will try to do exactly this. The motivation is intellectual challenge, where you want to outsmart the market and take your piece of cake. Whether it is football, tennis or betting on growing trees.
The concept for true bettor is basically the same. Bookmakers will offer the odds (prices), then you must somehow estimate your own prices and invest, where you think you have +EV.
And we basically saw big struggle during COVID, because most people who thought they are bettors, they simply turned back to fans. There was no sports. And if you don’t focus on betting (money, investing, analysing, using statistics, finding +EV, beating closing line value,…) your only thing (sport) was simply not there.
On the other side, some bettors who are here for the money game, not for the game or the sport they love, started to adjust. If your motivation is money, if your motivation is how to find the value and how to outsmart the market, where you take your piece of cake, then it is basically irrelevant what events will be offered. Sport, porn movies, reality shows, growing trees, drinking alcohol competition,…. We just need to take information, analyse information, analyse market, compare with market price, find the value and invest smartly small pieces of our bankroll.
This is the difference between betting, sports betting and sports alone. Sports component is the least important for a bettor. It is just one pool where we take the information. It could be anything. It could be any competition with two or more possible outcomes.
Betting on eSports new big thing?
And here we come to eSports, which is maybe the only “sport” that benefited during pandemic 2020.
Esports is a form of sport competition using video games. In other words, we have teams (players) who play video games and these events are placed on betting market, where we can bet.
Newzo estimate that the global esports market will generate revenues of $1,059.3 million in 2020
Anyone who follow new trends will agree that this could be the next big thing. Younger generations are heavily connected to video games and whole communities are build around that. Twitch, social media, video games,…
Isn’t this something that bookmakers need and will offer more and more?
Exactly! A lot of people with the same interest, a lot of fun, excitement, where emotions are involved. In the article (Pshychologytoday) about esports Patrick Markey explains that: “… video gaming raises dopamine levels in the brain to about the same degree that eating a slice of pepperoni pizza or dish of ice cream does (without the calories). That is, it raises dopamine to roughly double its normal resting level, whereas drugs like heroin, cocaine, or amphetamine raise dopamine by roughly 10 times that much.”
From the article “What is eSports and why do people watch it?” by Juho Hamari: “People who watch others play online are an attractive audience to marketing professionals. They tend to be younger and intellectually motivated, demonstrating an excitement for learning through their fandom (Hamari & Sjöblom, 2017). They are also active on social media platforms (Sjöblom, Hassan, Macey, Törhönen, & Hamari, 2018)”
Our members introduced eSports to me 2-3 years ago
I am pretty sure, that eSports has a bright future and during COVID bookmakers started to promote it big time. Many bettors started to bet on it and I decided to dig deeper into this thing too.
I was introduced to eSports probably 2-3 years ago, but because I have only 24 hours per day, I didn’t have time to learn about that back then. But in 2020, because of COVID situation, when all sports and leagues were shut down, I decided to start researching it and decided to create my own betting model, where I will get my probabilities of the outcomes. Independently from bookmakers calculated numbers. With this I can find the value.
I didn’t panic much, because baseball was shut down (my favourite sport to bet, because I had the most success in the past). I knew that betting is not about sport, but about your ability to find the value. Things will change in the future, or maybe they will not – it doesn’t really matter, but the concept in profitable betting is the same for all bettors.
First step – learning basic
I am always amazed, when I see people blindly following some handicappers (even me) on social media, when at the same time they have no idea about handicappers work, handicappers strategy and even worse – about the sport, the numbers and the value. But this is how it is. I am not here to say what to do, I will just try to explain what and how I do it.
I knew that eSports will be a big thing in the future and during Covid-19 it was a great chance for me to learn about it. So, first I asked some of our members, who are following eSports for some time, to give me some advice where to start. I wanted to learn first about the sport. Are there any leagues? Teams? Can we watch the games, so I can get the feeling.
At the same time (and this was even more important for me) I researched what market offers. What kind of eSports events they offer.
So I found that most popular leagues are:
- League of Legends
- Counter Strike – Global Offensive (csgo betting)
Look for information and the stats
These three leagues are most popular and I found that we have basically teams, players who are paid pretty decent amount of money (Johan “N0tail” Sundstein – $6.9 million (Dota 2)). The teams have players, lineups, there is a lot of money involved, we have fans, we have people who watch this, their players are stars, there are even some trades or players changes,… a lot of similarities with our traditional sports and leagues.
So, what I needed next is to find information and stats.
I can not even imagine betting without getting my numbers first and then comparing with bookmakers numbers. How can you sell coca cola for $2.50 if you don’t know if you will get it for lower price? You must know that you will get coca cola for $0.70 and then you can sell it for $2.50. If you can not do this, you will make a loss. When it comes to coca cola, you can just call suppliers and they will tell you this price, but in sports betting you must estimate for yourself (or if you have someone who will do it for you – not picks, I hope we know the difference). But you must come somehow with your price. For successful betting (or any other money making) we always need 2 numbers (to compare).
So, I researched the sites and the stats from all three sports (if I can name them sports). I found that the best organised stats and information was about CSGO (counter strike) on the site HTLV.
They have pretty cool organised stats, rankings, results and I decided that I will focus on this league. Such thing always take time, learning, testing, trial and errors. Most people who don’t bet, have no idea how much time and effort is put in successful betting in the past. But without this, we can not expect any profit.
Building a statistical esports betting model
The next step was to build a model, where I would get my numbers, so I can compare with bookmakers numbers. And this is how I find the value, which is the only logical way to place any money.
There is many betting models or systems out there and no model is perfect. We all know that. But the good thing is that betting is a relative skill compared to the market. And this market is full of sports fans, that are emotionally involved, who make a lot of irrational decisions, that are not based on any analysis or numbers. This is where small % of profitable bettors have the chance.
I use pretty simple statistical methods for my betting, which worked for me in the past and hopefully it will work for me in the future too.
The first thing I needed was to organise the stats. Despite we have some nice information there, it is still not perfect. We must not forget, that eSports is pretty new thing and that more and better information will come in the future for sure. But right now, we must operate with the information that are available.
So, I decided to create all teams with lineups and players stats and then use simple logistic regression.
And the rest is turning these information into probabilities, which gave me directly my estimated odds.
All my models, where we bet on moneylines are made so, that I get my probabilities and then I use adjusted kelly criterion to find enough big discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers. Based on this I also decide if I bet bigger or lower unit.
If we look at the sheet above you can see:
- Win % – this is my estimated win%
- My odds – simply turning win% into the odds (1/win%)
- Bookie odds – I test all my models against sharp bookmaker (Pinnacle)
- Qualified or better – this is the last price (odds) where my bet is qualified
- Value/AdjkValue – I set the criterium at 1.50 (if I get adjk 1.50 or more – then this is qualified bet. If not, then it is not qualified)
And above we have the results so far. I waited to reach at least 100 qualified bets (after analysing hundreds of games) to write this report.
The next thing was something I call a dirty job. There is many smart bettors and many smart betting theorists who I deeply respect. Many of them are very smart and much smarter than me. In fact I think I am just an average guy and this maybe the reason, why many bettors can identify with me, because I try to explain things on a dumb way. So, I don’t want to compare my work with other people’s work, because definitely there are better, smarter and more intelligent bettors than me. Some of them I even know.
But not everyone is willing to do the dirty job. We can talk about betting theory, about betting models, about backtesting, … but what I do is to test (and bet) real time and publicly show this. Wake up, check the odds, do the job. And then next day the same. And the next day the same.
Opening, Real Time and Closing Odds
I decided to test my model against opening odds, against real time odds and closing odds to see the results. So why is this important.
One of the keys to win at sports betting is to bet early to outsmart the market. The most relevant theory about profitable betting so far says, that if you beat the closing line, you will be a profitable bettor. This is the only thing that matters. Of course we can go into the details about fully efficient markets and not fully efficient markets (which I think eSports still isn’t fully efficient), but I will leave this for another time.
Anyway, tracking those results is a great information to see how much profit you would make if you bet on opening odds, because once you are not follower (or picks subscriber) and if you have betting model (or a method) to find a value, you can bet on opening odds if you are committed enough.
Tracking on real time odds will tell you about your betting habits and it is great to compare how you will do against opening and closing odds in real life and real time, based on your lifestyle and timezone.
And tracking results with closing odds, I wanted to see how would my model do if I would bet on latest odds and this is in many cases good indicator how much money followers lose when they follow other people’s picks.
Flat betting and Adjusted Kelly Criterium Betting (Adjk)
When it comes to analysing games of course sometimes we will find more value and sometimes we will find no value. And in the past I found my way how to find this value with adjusted kelly. I named this adjk and this is my way to calculate where I must bet more or less. For example in my baseball betting, I found the bigger the value, the better yield and better clv (closing line value).
Results: +15.74 units and finding the best discrepancy
The results after 100 bets:
I won with my betting model 46 bets and lost 54.
But as we all know, W-L record is not important for professional bettors. It depends on the average odds you play. Horse racing bettors have constantly W-L record below 50%, 40%,.. and they make a lot of money. So this is not even a conversation for serious bettors anymore.
My average odds was: 2.34 (+134)
So, it makes sense, that the record is below 50%.
The next thing which is interesting is the difference between the profit if I bet on opening odds (+17.24 units) and taken and closing odds.
If you are winning bettor in most cases profit on closing odds will be much lower than on opening or taken odds. Which makes sense. Sharp moves the lines, they take “the best profit” and the rest get the worse price.
The funny thing is that if you would follow picks you would be almost break even, where at the same time I would make +17.24 units or +15.74 units on taken odds.
In other words, if your unit is $100 per game and if you follow picks on late odds, you would make +$63. But if you have a model and if you estimate your odds, plus try to catch early odds (you can if you estimate projections for yourself and not being a follower), then you would make +$1,724. And if we check the flat betting, where we simply ignore the importance of value, the difference is almost 6 units.
These results were based on the discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers, where I was looking for 1.50 (which will calculate my formula). The bigger the number the bigger the value.
Bigger value – more profit (+27.87 units)
If we understand what was the idea behind it (I estimate my odds, I compare it with bookmakers odds, I find the value and I bet more where I see more value), we can also go deeper and see if I would be more selective, what would be the results.
So I quickly eliminated the bets where there was less discrepancy between my projected odds and bookmakers odds (or if you like where adjk was lower).
The results are even better. So if I would be more selective and if I would look only for bigger discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers, I would make even more profit.
Positive closing line value
Of course I also tracked closing line value. Based on bookmakers and some other experts that I respect (Joseph Buchdahl) this is the most important indicator whether you are winning or losing bettor. Despite I think esports betting is still not fully efficient market and the bookmakers will also need some time (probably not a lot of time, but still…) to fully adopt to this new and exciting markets, it is ok, that we go trough these numbers here as well.
Closing line value will tell you the difference between your odds and closing odds. If you bet on a team at 2.40 (+140) and then you see that the latest odds were 2.05 (+105) you feel great. And you are completely right. This is a good sign. I will not go into the details here, but this is very important for every serious bettor. And I see more and more bettors who take this information seriously as well as betting models and projection the lines. Which is also ok. Better technology, smarter markets, smarter bettors,…and those who want to survive this game will either learn and adjust or will be forgotten by the market. Unfortunately this is how it is. This is life. This is also betting life.
And definitely closing line value is one of these things, that is more and more popular and more and more important in conversation between bettors.
I saw bettors tracking clv (closing line value) on two ways. First one is simple. You simply compare your odds versus closing odds. It will give good information whether you get better odds and this will give you bigger clv in percentages. I named it CLV.
The second is where you eliminate margins. I tracked it against closing pinnacle odds without margins. It will give you much lower number and it is much harder to keep positive number. This is where you see that betting is not that easy at all. I sometimes call it for myself expected yeild. This is why I named it xCLV.
But whatever you name your tracking numbers, I always say, how you name terms is not that important. It is much more important, that you know what you track, what you do and how you can improve your betting.
I am satisfied that my closing numbers are positive, but definitely I will try to improve my betting results in eSports in the future.
My personal bets
So, these are the steps, I usually make when I make my first bet. I never look for picks in my life. I rather invested time, money and effort in my knowledge and I always do my best to become better. This is probably a reason, why I have a chance to write this on my site and this is probably the reason, why I took small part of the betting cake in my life too.
There is no crazy betting on something that I don’t understand and there are always steps before I make a first bet. Research the market, research the sport, build a model, that will estimate my odds, so they can be compared to bookmakers odds. All my bets are always on my site here.
It is just the start, but I am very excited about the future of eSports betting.
How to bet CSGO and what I have learned?
eSports is a new (I believe big) thing in betting World. I am not sure if we can name it sport or something else, but at the end of the day for serious bettor this is not important.
We have teams, we have games, where some outcomes “will happen”. These outcomes have some probabilities, that can be calculated on different ways.
Bookmakers have their own way, where they also take into account the behaviour of the market. They offer these prices and we can bet or if I am more precise, we pay the price.
So, our goal is to get our odds and probabilities and compare with theirs. If we find a value, we bet. In other words we need a method. I use my betting model and if you want to learn how to start building a model in google sheets click here for a free course.
I learned couple of things about csgo:
- The competition is almost every day (at least so far) and the good thing is that we don’t need stadiums, the weather also don’t affect the game, which makes this much easier in these uncertain times of Covid-19.
- All trusted and respected bookmakers offer eSports now. They also know that this is big thing and huge market.
- The market is still soft I believe. There were some nice line movement and I didn’t see yet a betting model for eSports. I am not saying that it doesn’t exists, but at least I didn’t saw it in betting communities. It is all based on eSports lovers and writing analysis, which is basically the same, what most sports fans do in other leagues and sports. Because of that, there is no such competition like in NBA betting or English Premier League betting for example, where we have a lot of sharp bettors and a lot of betting models/algorithms. This is definitely a chance for many.
- I also learned, that csgo games are played in different maps and the information about maps come out later. Most of the times teams play on 2 wins (winner out of 3). In grand final they can play up to 5 games (winner of 3) and in some cases they play only one map. Some teams are better with some maps and the other teams are better with other maps, which makes sense. So, I stay away from games with only one map, because it can be a gamble. I lost bet or two, when I was testing the model, because of this, but later I stayed away from one map games.
- In-game betting can be interesting if you focus on maps model. The maps information come out at the start of the game, so after the first map, we know which map they will play next. So, the model can be built also based on maps and those who love live betting can create a model for this second map betting. I am not big fan of in-game betting, but my model is part of our membership, so anyone can download it and with some additional work add this feature with maps.
- The margins from bookmakers are still little bit bigger than on other sports (4.79% on my example), but this is completely normal at this stage now. It is a new sport for bettors and bookmakers take little bit more commission to secure their business. But on the other side (I believe – maybe I am wrong) there is not many “sharp esports” bettors, so this margin can be beaten probably easier than 2.5% vig on sharp markets, like NBA.
- I also learned that teams will change players from time to time. This is why it is also important to follow these changes and trades, so you can incorporate this information into the model.
- Almost all games are live on TWITCH, where you can watch two teams shooting at each others, with commentators and many viewers. I watched 2-3 games just to get the feeling about it, but in general I don’t care about excitement and watching games. For me most important is to find the value. This is the only focus I have. But if you like watching these games, they are live and can be exciting too.
CSGO betting Sites
With the popularity of esports, I believe that we will see more and more betting sites that focus heavily on esports. Currently we already have some very good sites, that focus on esports betting. Let’s check the best csgo betting sites, that are focusing on esports betting and their odds.
- Unikrn.com is US Friendly and basically accessible from anywhere in the World betting site dedicated for eSports and csgo betting. They are one of the most reliable and trusted csgo and esports betting sites out there. Very cool thing is that bettors can be players too and they can test their skills by connecting Steam.
- Cyberbet is another great growing site for csgo betting, which offer 10 EUR risk free bet to all new costumers.
- Arcanebet is esports and csgo focused betting site that is already known for very happy costumers. Players love it and they already built amazing reputation among esports bettors.
- Thunderpick was established in 2017 and it is one of my top 5 selections right now in eSports betting. They offer very competitive odds and wide variety of live betting options.
- Loot.Bet is another great and good looking site for esports betting with good costumer support (24/7 live chat) and many payment options, including bitcoins and cryptocurrencies.
While most sports fans were depressed now, because there was no sport, I believe the true bettor will always look to find the value. No matter if this is betting on sport, betting on girls, betting on politics,… whatever it is.
The concept is basically the same if you invest in stocks, if you run a restaurant and sell coca cola or if you bet. We always must find the way how to compare the price we are willing to pay with the price that market offers.
Everything else is more sports fans talk and this is exactly what bookmakers need. And honestly profitable bettors too. If there wouldn’t be betting communities and sports fans, who are main base of money involved, profitable bettors couldn’t be paid. This is how it is and it is up to each person if he decide to be a sports fan, picks follower or try to become an independent profitable bettor. In most cases you can not be all three.
But I am excited about this new thing – eSports, because I always try to learn new things and my focus is always on the value. If they shut down all sports and even eSports and we start betting on Reality shows, I would probably analyse reality show participants.
I am a bettor. Not a sports fan. And this is big difference.
- Sports Betting
- Successful Sports Betting
Three very different things, where “sport” is the least important thing for a bettor – investor.
With this article I hope I motivated some bettors to start researching eSports and at the same time I wanted to share some of my betting philosophies with you.
eSports is not going anywhere. eSports will be there for many years and I wish you a lot of profit.
WHO officially declared the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic.
Because of this a number of sporting events and leagues have taken measures to prevent further spread of the disease either by limiting live attendance or total/temporary suspension of the games.
Among those leagues are all the major Soccer leagues, the MLB, NBA, the NCAA, NHL, and many other smaller leagues and less popular sports.
It’s a massive hit, not only for Bookmakers, Las Vegas and companies, that work in Sports Betting market,…but also for sports bettors around the Globe.
These times can be hard now for all involved in this industry, but we also must understand that those times will pass. When such things happen, we usually have two choices.
We can blame a situation on which we don’t have any influence anyway, or we can focus on small things, that we can do. The question is not only when the sports and all major leagues will be back, but also how many bettors will respond to the situation now.
Two things are for sure: Bettors will not stop betting and Bettors have a lot of times now sitting at home with their phones and computers.
What can we bet on and what can we do during this global pandemic times?
- Online Casino and Poker
Most people bet just for fun and we know that. Casino in the first place is fun and the house will always win, because we basically know the chances for most games and entertainment is what they also describe and promote their business.
Everyone can try luck and there are a lot of people in the past who made a lot of money by playing Casino.
There is of course much more of those who lost, but the fact is, that during pandemic times, when people are at home, they will find a way to have fun and some excitement. Many of them will try luck and most of them understand that this is it. If you can control how much you lose and how much fun money you can afford, online casino can be pure fun.
Completely another story is poker, which is already very popular online. Many sports bettors will take a sit and play poker too – online.
2. Entertainment Props Politics Betting (Celebrity, Film, Movie, Weather)
When it comes to politics, everyone has an opinion and more and more people bet on such events.
Nothing will change for upcoming U.S. elections 2020. It is expeceted that even more people will make a bet now, especially after the Brexit betting and Trump vs Clinton Elections.
The Metro reported, that Vincent Tchenguiz won $1.5 million thanks to betting on Trump. According to the Independent(UK), one unknown gambler won $622,00 on a bet on Trump, and many other bettors placed several six-figure wagers other candidates. With market growing, more and more people bet such things too. Not all like to bet or predict the events from sports.
3. UFC and fighting Betting
UFC and fighting sports are more and more popular in the World. Some of the highest paid sportsman comes from fighting World.
It is Worldwide phenomenon and despite the latest news show that UFC will postpone its next events as the coronavirus outbreak continues, Dana White insists that show must go on. UFC will be one of the first sports back in the action. It is of course much easier to organise such event in quarantine, where small group of people are needed.
Horse racing is there for centuries. It started in the UK in the early 1600s during the reign of King James I and I don’t see it going anywhere soon. Some of the best and richest gambler experts come from horse racing World.
There are countries that postponed their events, but some countries (like Ireland) is set to continue behind closed doors despite coronavirus. This is another great opportunity for many bettors to bet on those events.
5. Virtual Sports Betting
With no “real events” many bettors will turn to virtual sports. The great thing about virtual sport is that can be played nonstop. 24 hours, seven days a week. Virtual sports is simulated using computer graphics and all events are protected by complex algorithms. Betting on those events is a new phenomenon supported by new technologies.
eSports is a new beast and we should not confuse it with virtual sports. Virtual sports is simulated, while eSports is played by real people. Total eSports viewership is expected to grow at a 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2019 and 2023, up from 454 million in 2019 to 646 million in 2023, per Business Insider Intelligence estimates. Markets rely on the growing popularity of the virtual gaming world, which is getting bigger and bigger. Sports and video gaming are already bigger than Music and Movie Industries Combined. We have real players, real teams and the teams have even coaches. Their events are very popular and millions of people watch those events. This is another great opportunity for this market to become even bigger. With very small amount of other sports and leagues, eSports betting is one of the best solutions to bet online. eSports has definitely great future in betting too. Many bettors will start betting eSports now.
7.Learn How to Bet
Hard times will pass and we will be back again. Sometimes life show us what we need to do and sometimes we need to take a step back, so we can then move two steps forward.
This is something people always forget. Sports betting World became a crazy World with social media in last years. It is basically the combination of the hype, marketing and the dopamine, which is very dangerous and has almost nothing to do with the real analytical betting, investing and generating extra income.
If we look around we see everyone selling picks, wrong hopes, locks, winners and all kind of crazy things. There is much more marketers and very good sales persons then good bettors. I explained this here. Not many can show enough big level of knowledge when it comes to betting (understanding the market, probabilities, using models and algorithms for projecting the lines, yield, closing line value,…). After all this was not needed. There was enough hype anyway.
With all those sports, all those leagues, flashy things all around us, Las Vegas stories and all kind of handicappers, that have that huge winner for you,… we all forget what is most important. The knowledge and understanding betting market in the first place.
We forgot that there is no such term as a winner, but only the value and if you can find it. We forgot that the odds are always expressed in the numbers and we need to start using statistics if we want to have a chance to win at sports betting.
The problem of sports betting market is that anyone with 5 minutes free time, can bet on games. This is why the market is considered as a dumb market, this is why 97% of bookmakers win and this is why this market is getting bigger and bigger every year. Many new bettors dream about becoming professional bettors who will have the edge against the market, but not many are willing to invest time, money and effort to learn the basics in the first place.
It is also unique business and the market, where many people are considered as experts, despite they lack of knowledge. It is called a survivorship bias and most people fall into the trap of wrong illusion and false hope. I am sure that lack of sports events and leagues hit hard many bettors, gamblers and those who dream about being a professionals.
But now is the time to learn. Bettors sit at home, with a lot of time and the difference is making now. Some bettors will become better than others. And I hope we already understand that when we are winning at the market, we are winning against others. 3% of people make money because of other 97% lose.
This is how it is and on the long run, we don’t need to focus on “winners”, but on the vlaue and beating closing line, which is directly the result of the market. In other words, if you want to win at sports betting on the long run, you need to outsmart the market.
And this is the best way to become smarter than the rest of the market. Most bettors don’t use statistics in betting at all and they have no clue how to project the odds, lines or totals before they bet. This is a chance for many now, who want to learn and improve. This will have positive consequences later. Most gamblers will not improve at all in the meantime.
Sports and the leagues will come back and we will be back in that race of daily bet again, but the time and the effort you put now for being a better bettor will pay off on the long run.
Remember that most handicappers promote only short term results, which creates hype. The reality is that only 3% will have positive lifetime record. And those are bettors who have knowledge and skills. Like in any other sport or business. The Best Professional Athletes work hard during off-season and they are training hard now too.
This is what the best and professional bettors should do now too. There was no better time to learn. Plenty of time. No sports to bet. Whole population is at home.
There is more ways to start learning about the betting market and probabilities. There are couple of great free courses, where you can learn about basic statistics, like khanacademy or edx.org.
Or you can start with MY FREE BETTING COURSE, where you can learn how to start using statistics in google sheets. It is up to you how you will deal with this crisis. But definitely, nothing is lost, soon things will be normal again and this is the best time to learn about betting. There was no such opportunity in the past, because of constantly daily betting.
We also don’t know if we will have such opportunity in the future once we come back to normal life. Focus on things you have in control. Sometimes the things that looked very bad at the start, turned out to be the best. I believe this is the time to learn and become better bettor.
I wish you and your families all the best during. Keep safe. Stay strong. Take Care. We will be stronger and wiser when this mess finish.