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My Projected Lines and the odds
NY Rangers lost yesterday and the odds on them are 2.44 right now. I have projected them at 1.60, which is pretty big differnce and I think there is a value on them.
NY Rangers will start with their second goalie Raanta, but he is playing really well. His record is 4-1 and SV% is 93.7%. In two road games he has SV% of more than 96%. After yesterday’s game, when they lost against Florida, they will rest their first goalie Lundqvist. But I believe, we have good goalie here for Rangers. Pittsburgh on other side will probably start with Fleury, who is not playing that well and there are rumors, that he could leave Pittsburgh before the end of this season. His record in last 4 games is 0-3 and his SV in those games is just 90.6%. NY Rangers lost Zabinejad yesterday, but I think Pittsburgh could have more problems with injuries, because they just placed on IR Kunitz and Hornqvist, who could also miss this game.
Reason for pick
NY Rangers are playing better so far this season and with Raanta we have better goalie. Better record, better defence and better SV%. Pittsburgh on other side will be without Kunitz, who is one of the most important players for this team. They could be also without Hornqvist, who is day-to-day. This is B2B game for Rangers and they will have tired legs, but even if I include this in my model, there is still value on NY Rangers.
Play NY Rangers
My Projected Lines and the odds
I have projected that Devils have around 43% of chance to win this game and with that I have projected that they should be underdog of around 2.32. Bookmakers offer odds of around 3.00 on them and I think they are underrated here. I still believe, that San Jose is better team and they have better chance to win this game, but not for that price.
When we compare those two teams, Devils are better team so far based on points. They collected 21 points in 17 games, while Sharks have 19 points in 18 games. I usually don’t watch standings, but I wanted to point this out here, because we have one team at 3.00. Devils are playing without their best offensive player Taylor Hall, who is out, but they are anyway not to much offensive minded team. Their strength is defence. They allow only 2.2 goals per game and they also allowed only 24 shots per game in last 5 games. San Jose on other side is also playing well defensively. They allow only 2.3 goals per game, but they also score only 2.3, which is even less than New Jersey. So, with New Jersey we have a team, who is better based on points and a team, who has better goal diff.
San Jose will probably start with Martin Jones, who is 8-8 to the season with SV% of 90.9. New Jersey will start witj their backup goalie Kinkaid, who played 3 games so far this season and his record is 2-1 and SV% is 94.4%.
Reason for pick
New Jersey is totally underrated here. They are better team based on points, they are better team wen it comes to goal diff and they have very solid goalie in the net today. San Jose is still better team, I don’t deny this, but they are simply overrated. We have two strong defensive teams and this could be very close game, where anything can happen at the end and this is why odds of 2.9 or more are too much on New Jersey. i would play New Jersey for the odds of 2.60 or more. I have them at close to 3.00.
Play New Jersey
I will be quick with this one. Tampa Bay lost Steven Stamkos and they are without Stralman too and those are two important players for this team. They are going to play Nashville on the road. This will be the last game on this long road trip for them. After that game, they will go home and tomorrow they will have day off. They will play against very strong home team. Nashville is one of those teams, who are struggling on the road, but at home, they are playing much better. Their home record is 5-2. They score 3.1 goals at home and allow only 1.4. Impressive.
Tampa bay on other side has positive record on the road (7-4), but they were also outplayed couple of times (-0.7 shot diff). They will start with Bishop who is 7-5 this season with SV of 90.9%. On other side Nashville will start with Rinne, who is 4-2 at home with Sv% of 95.3%.
Odds dropped on Nashville and I think there is a good reason. They are very strong at home, they will face Tampa Bay, who will play their last game on the road and tomorrow, they can go home. Note also that Tampa Bay is without their best player, who got injured couple of days ago and I think this could be one of those games, when Tampa will lose by 2 or more goals.
My predictive models gives small value on Tampa Bay based on current odds, but I will go with my gut feeling in this one. This is my rare gut play in NHL. Most of my bets are based on my analysis and predictive model. But I like Nashvile because of those reasons above.