Play: Dodgers (Hill) @2.15
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Baltimore Orioles are fighting for playoffs and they need a win. The good thing is that they are red hot right now, because they won 6 of last 7 games. Orioles will start with Miley and we have with them pitching advantage. Miley ahs been pitching better right now and in last game he struck out 11 batters against the team, which is very good versus LHP (Arizona). Today he will face Yankees, who hav negative record versus lefties and score 4.0 runs per game against them. Yankees on other side will start with Severino, who is awful and I don’t understand, why the odds are close to 1.90. Severino has record of 0-8 and he will face a team, which is one of the best versus right handed pitchers. Note also, that Baltimore will be highly motivated.
Washington is already in the playoffs and they will play the last two series at home. The bookmakers give Arizona chance of around 37% and my predictive model gives Arizona chance of around 43%, which is much more and I think we have a small value on Diamondbacks today.
Arizona will start with Bradley, who struck out 17 batters in last 14 innings and he looked pretty good in last 2 games. Washington on other side will start with Tanner Roark, who has not been that sharp in last games and his SIERA is worse than from Bradley on other side. He walked 7 batters in last 14 innings, which is unusual for him, because he was pretty good whole season. What I want to say is that Washington will not have any starting pitching advantage here.
Harper and Murphy are out for Washington and this is pretty big, because, especially Harper is a very important player for Washington. Without those two guys, Washington is weaker and 2.70 is little bit too much on Nationals.
Play Arizona Diamondbacks
Both teams are already out of playoffs, but White Sox are very good home team. In fact they are #6 best home team in MLB with the record 41-33. They are also very good against left handed pitchers with the record of 18-17 and they score much more against left-handed pitchers (4.8). Tampa Bay on other side is a bad road team with the record of 29-45 and they are #26 ranked road team. Tampa will start with Smyly, left-handed pitcher, who struggled little bit with on the road with ERA of 5.44 and what is even more interesting he allowed 16 home runs in 15 road games, which is more than 1 home run on the road per game. Shields on other side will start for White Sox and we all know, that he is former TB player and he has record of 2-0 against his former team. My math model has Tampa at 1.84, while bookmakers have them as underdog. Play White Sox
Arizona is one of the best teams versus left-handed pitchers. They score 5.3 runs per game against them with batting average of 0.280 and I have them as 4th best team in MLB versus LHP.
Baltimore is one of the worst teams versus left-handed pitchers, in fact, I have them as #24 worst team versus left-handed pitchers. They score 4.2 runs per against them, which is less than Arizona and their batting average against LHP is awful (0.239). They also have negative record versus LHP (21-23).
Robbie Ray is better pitcher than Miley. Simply as that. I rank him higher, even all other numbers, like SIERA rank him higher. He is pitching better in last games (27 strike outs in last 16 innings), while Wade Miley is not playing that well. His ERA in last 3 starts is 8.71, whip 1.936, 6 walks versus 7 strike outs.
I don’t buy “they must win” stories, because I saw a lot of “must win” games and a lot of teams didn’t won that games. It’s just one game. One team is playing without pressure, the other team is under the huge pressure and Baltimore is struggling right now. 2-5 in last 7 games, 2.1 runs per game.
Based on my math model, which includes all kind of factors, including current form, home field advantage, lefty-righty match up, etc….gives more chances to Arizona in this one.
We all need bookmakers, because without them we can not bet. But picking the right online bookmaker is not easy. How would I pick bookmaker if I start today? This is my personal criteria, how would I pick bookmaker.
Do you know, that there are a lot of bookmakers, who will not pay you if you win? It is unacceptable, but this is our reality. There are a lot of people, who beat bookmakers and they didn’t get their money. This is most important thing for me. If I win, I want that they pay me. No matter, if I stop betting today, they must clear my account and pay me everything. Great bonuses, good odds, variety of bets and other things are not important if they don’t pay you after you win. This is why I am very careful, when I pick bookmaker for myself. I don’t need flashy sites, I don’t need huge bonuses, I don’t need special bets, I don’t need Casino — I want to be sure, that they will pay me. This is the most important thing. After that we can talk about other things. Here is my list of verified bookmakers.
Limits and Max Wager are two different things. Do you know, that a lot of bookmakers will limit you, if you start winning? I will say it again: It is unacceptable, but this is our reality. For example, if you start winning and your bets are bigger and bigger, they will just limit you and I know stories from people, who couldn’t bet more than $50, after they started winning. I don’t want to be in this situation. The second thing is max wager. We all believe, that we will start winning and our bets will be bigger and bigger. If you are small bettor, than you probably don’t care about max wager, but if you win more and more and you bankroll grows, you will need bookmakers, which will allow you to bet high stakes.
After I find bookmaker, which will pay me and allow me to bet, I would start looking who has the best odds. 90% of people still don’t understand how important this is. When we bet, we pay something. And the odds are prizes. You can pay for the same thing $110 or you can pay for the same thing $105. What will you do? Would you pay for the same car $500 more? Of curse not. So, why you pay more if you can pay less with good bookmaker? If we take an example of one game. The game is the same for everyone. No matter where you bet, the game and the result of the game is the same for us. But the price is not the same. Because some bookmakers will have better odds and some will have worse odds and you will pay more. So, what is margin? The easiest way to understand margins is this: We have two teams and let’s say, that there is only 2 possible outcomes (win — loss). And let’s say, that they have exactly the same chances to win this game (probability 50% — 50%). So, fair odds would be 2.00 vs 2.00 (Us players +100 vs +100). But they never give us this price. Instead of 2.00 vs 2.00 (+100 vs +100), they will offer something like 1.95 vs 1.95 (-105 vs -105). And those 5 cents are margins and this is what you have to pay more. In reality, if you get 1.95 vs 1.95 is very good. Most bookmakers are not that generous. I would definitely look for bookmakers with reduced juice, low margins, bigger payouts or better odds if you want. When you start betting big money, then you see how important is every single line. If you bet small money on odds of 2.00 or 2.05, you will not see big difference, but if you bet $10.000 on the same odds, then this is $500 of difference.
There will always be something with money, with odds, with payments,…and you will need customer service for sure. Always when it comes to our money, we don’t want to wait. I like live chat, so if I have any question, I like that they give the answer as soon as possible. We trust our money to some site and I hate if they don’t answer. Every bookmaker will have some customer service, mostly by email, phone or live chat. I prefer live chat.
Most bookmakers will have couple of deposit and withdrawal options and I don’t want to wait too long for my money. This is important especially when they must pay you. Most bookmakers will have quick deposit methods, but when they must pay you, it can take a little bit longer. I know some stories, that people have waited for 1 or even 2 months to get their money. This is not acceptable.
Underdogchance.com — A Journey Into The World Of Successful Sports Handicappers
There are a lot of Sports Betting Services on the internet and everyone will promise a profit. They all claim, that they are the best in the country. When you see, that 20 of them claim, that their are the best, someone must lie. So, who is the best or at least good?
First of all, my personal opinion is, that you can make your own picks if you put little effort in researching the games. Most bettors don’t have any edge anyway. I believe, that you saw a lot of times, when they show you the record something like: “I am red hot handicapper: 45-23 last 68 picks!”
Foolish people think that someone will make them rich, but this is not going to happen, not in sports betting world, not in any other areas of life. The only person who can make you rich is you. Most bettors short term results, that you see on the internet are by a luck, not by a skill.
Don’t you believe me?
Ok, take for example flip coin experiment. I hope we both agree that if the conditions are fair and if you will flip a coin a lot of times, then the “Head” and “Tail” will be 50% – 50% times. I hope we both agree that we don’t have any edge. Right?
But take an experiment and flip coin 60 times. I did it and the result was: 34-26 for “Tail”. I can do one more time and it could be 26-34. It can be 30-30. My wife did the same and it was 29-31. The fact is that we don’t have any edge.
But I can show the record 34-26, when I want and I don’t say anything when it is 26-34 for example.
This is how most handicappers with promoting short term results will fool you, when at the same time, they basically don’t have any edge.
But if you want to win in sports betting, you must have the edge if you want to beat bookmakers. I hope you agree with me. I believe, that you can bet on your own and when you take into account the cost of the service, odds dropping and couple of other things, it is better to invest in yourself, gain some knowledge and make your own bets. But of course, there are couple of handicappers, that are good, but to find them is very hard and 10 questions below will help you to eliminate handicappers, that you should not follow.
So, here are 10 questions, you should ask before you pay for any pick from paid handicappers. If they don’t have an answer on any of my questions, I would not pick that service.
I would never pay for the service, which says something like: “we are on amazing run 32–14 in last 46 picks”. That’s bullshit. Everyone can have 32–14 run and everyone can have 14–32 run. Show me your detailed record for the last 3 years. Send me the file with detailed picks, risks and other info, so I can make deeper research. This is the first question and if they are professionals, who sell their picks, then this will not be a problem. Always focus on the bigger picture. Everyone can have one month or even a negative year, but if you decide to invest, then you should see the bigger picture.
2. Did they show me their CLV, yield and ROI, or maybe profitability?
Many sports betting services will show you just profit and many of them will show only short period record. That’s red alert. Go away. Why? First of all, profit doesn’t tell anything. What if someone plays 100 games and he lost 70 of them. 99 games he played with 1 unit and one game he played with 100 units. This is just one example. You want to see how good they are and if it is worth to pay for those picks. CLV or closing line value is most important indicator if you are winning or a losing player. The biggest and most reliable bookmakers track CLV from sharp players and they say, that historical stats show, that this is the most important factor. Not profit, not win-lose record, but CLV. And of course ask them for Yield, ROI and maybe profitability. Read more about Yield, ROI and Profitability here.
3. What kind of sports they bet and what type of bets they play?
I saw on contests and other sites, that some handicappers made a lot of profit betting some sports, that are not that popular and because of that market is a small. It’s nice to someone, who made a great profit in net units on Italian volleyball League. But in reality, can you play those games? Do you even have the chance to play those games on your bookmaker? Will you ever place a bet for the same price? Because if this is a small market and if that advisor or service send picks out, odds will probably drop quickly. If you ask me, I would focus on main sports with huge betting market. As I said, it’s nice, that someone makes a profit on Handball, but can you follow him? Don’t forget, that we are talking about betting services, which you have to pay. The second question in the same topic is what type of bets. If they play always live betting or if they play always some special bets, it won’t be possible to follow them. The best bet types are again, moneyline, totals, 1-x-2, spread, AH,…again bet types, which are popular and you have a real chance to play those bets on your bookmaker and for the similar price.
4. Which bookmakers do they use?
I would ask them, what kind of bookmakers they use. If they always show great odds and they use some local bookmaker, then this will not help you. Professional sports handicappers will always use one of the top online bookmakers if we talk about online sports betting. There are a lot of reasons, why professionals use top bookmakers. Here is the list of my recommended bookmakers.
5. When they release their picks and how many times per day?
There are sites, which provide 20 picks per day with a couple of different sports handicappers. You can not follow them unless you sit whole day in front of computer. But if you sit in front of a computer, then you don’t need to pay for the picks. Do the job and research games on your own. So, what i would like to see from betting service is that they send me picks once or max twice per day. Get email, bet and do your stuff. You don’t want to wait and bet every 40 minutes. You should also ask them when they release their picks. If they release their picks at 2 in the morning and the games starts at 6 in the morning, can you follow them? I don’t think so.
6. Do they use advanced statistics and math models
This would be one of the most important questions for me. Most handicappers say, that they use advanced statistics, but in reality, they don’t use any statistics, but only their intuition. Do they use models, do they use advanced statistics. How they find value? Can they show you projected lines for every game or they just guess who will win. Because if you follow one handicapper, who just reads a lot, I think you should not follow him. You can do this on your own. But statistics, math models, predictive models will make the difference in the long run. Why do you think all successful business use predictive models? Do you think, that one huge and the serious financial group will make their decisions based only on some information, that are available for everyone? Someone will say, he has some great information about fixed games, etc…Come on guys…Fixed games and stuff like this is cheating. Even if someone fixes games, do you think they will tell you? And even if they do, they are cheaters. They cheat sports, they cheat people and I believe, you don’t want to give your money to those people. Hard work, knowledge, statistics, experience,…this is something that will make your money on the long run.
7. What did they promise me?
“We will make you rich”, “We hit 96% of games”,… come on guys…98% of all people lose all the time. Nobody will make you rich overnight. Nobody! If they have such a information, they don’t ned to sell their picks. If you have 1 million on your account, you don’t need to sell picks for 50, 100 or even 1000 EUR. The best sports handicappers, who are fair and good, will always say you, that you should take an investment approach. The best handicappers will hit only 53–55% of their bets if we are talking about some spread betting, like NBA, NFL. Win % is different by odds (bigger with lower odds and lower with higher odds). They will show their real numbers from the past and they say some realistic numbers, you can expect from them.
8. What is their money management / investment strategy?
They must show you exactly what is the starting bankroll, when was set and exactly what % of bankroll they bet on each game. What are 50 units? What is 5 star play? What is 1 unit? Without very good explanation, information about those units are nothing. They must explain you. If they say play 2% of your bankroll, is this from starting bankroll or from current bankroll. If they use anything similar to martingale, just run away. I would pay for the service, which has strong and safe money strategy.
9. How many subscribers they have?
This is a tricky question, which I would ask them for sure. On one side, they will tell you that they have a lot of subscribers. With that, they want to say you, that they are good, that people trust them. But then ask yourself, if they have so many subscribers, will I get picks for the same price? No. Because if I send one pick out for example to 1000 subscribers and everyone will bet 100 EUR, do you think, that you will get the same price? No. Bookmakers will drop odds and you will get 1.95 instead of 2.05. And this is huge. if you win 50% of games with the odds of 2.05, you will have profit, if you hit 50% of the same bets for the odds of 1.95, you will have a loss.
10. How do you charge your services and how much?
when we talk about profit, yield, ROI, then you should take into account, that you will pay for the picks. If you pay one service 100 EUR per month and if they make 10 units per month and if your unit is 10 EUR (with starting bankroll of 1000EUR), do you think, that you will make a profit? No! 10 units of profit * 10 EUR = 100EUR. Minus cost of the service = 0 profit. You should always take into account what is you budget, what will be your unit and if you will ever make a profit, after they tell you exactly how much money you should bet on each game. I saw people, who have 1000 EUR on their bookmaker account and they are willing to pay 50 EUR for sports betting service. It’s insane. I would pay only if I have 10.000 EUR on my bank account and not more than 300–400 EUR per year. If they make 40 units in one year (let’s say 4.000 EUR), I would pay only 10% of my profit to them. Sometimes even this is too much. Based on current costs of sports betting services online, you should not pay a single penny for an advice until you have at least 10.000 EUR on your bookmaker account.
Some words to you, who decided to find betting service and you are willing to pay for the picks….
When we talk about profit, yield, ROI, then you should take into account, that you will pay for the picks. If you pay one service $100 per month and if they make 10 units per month and if your unit is $10 (with starting bankroll of $1000), do you think, that you will make a profit? No! 10 units of profit * $10 = $100. Minus cost of the service = 0 profit. You should always take into account what is your budget, what will be your unit and if you will ever make a profit, after they tell you exactly how much money you should bet on each game. I saw people, who have $1000 on their bookmaker account and they are willing to pay $50 for sports betting service. It’s insane. I would pay only if I have $10.000 on my bank account and not more than $300–$400 per year. If they make 40 units in one year (let’s say $4.000), I would pay only 10% of my profit to them. Sometimes even this is too much. Based on current costs of sports betting services online, you should not pay a single penny for an advice until you have at least 10.000 EUR on your bookmaker account. It is better to start on your own.
Some words to you, who decided to find betting service and you are willing to pay for the picks….
You should understand that this is sports betting. It is speculative business and anything can happen. Deal with it!
Nobody can make yo rich overnight and nobody will win every single month. Deal with it!
What are you paying is an advice. Some people spend hours and hours to make winning picks. You pay their work, so you have bigger chances to win. Nobody can guarantee for sure, that he will have a profitable season. Deal with it!
Most people who pay for betting advice don’t have a big bankroll. And because of that and because of the cost of the service, they bet 15%, 20%, 30% of their current bankroll per bet. They are in a must win situation every day. This will lead to bankruptcy sooner or later. They will be disappointed at the end.
You should never ever bet more than 1-3% on any game.
And 3% is the biggest play, which can happen rarely. Most of the bets should be max 1–2% or even less. If you will bet more than that, you will lose and please don’t blame sports betting services. Deal with it!
You should also understand the basics of sports betting. What are odds, what is probability, what is bookmaker and so on? The difference between sports betting investment and another type of investments is that you don’t give money to your betting advisor. They just suggest you, what you should play and how much money you should play. Everything else is on you. This is why is crucial to have some basic knowledge about sports betting. If you don’t find the time to learn sports betting basics, you will lose. Deal with it!
Never blame sports handicapper service if team A has lost the game. Betting services didn’t play that game. Players played the game and they lost the game. There is so many factors, that can happen in one game. If you don’t understand this, then you don’t understand simple basics and it is very likely, that you will lose a lot of money in sports betting. Sports betting services are not prophets, but advisors. They just tell you what you should play with the offered odds. You can not blame them for short period results. Deal with it!
If you pay betting picks for one day, one week or one month you are just a gambler. If you bet more than 1-3% of your bankroll you are a gambler. In this case you don’t need any betting advisor. The beauty of gambling is excitement and that you try your own luck. Right? Make your own gambling picks. Most bettors anyway don’t have any edge over the bookmakers.
My personal opinion about paid betting services.
I don’t sell picks and I am not betting service. Let’s be clear about that from the start. I am sure also, that I am not super talented handicapper, I just work hard. I bet for myself, I love what I do and I love to play with statistics, data and numbers. I’ve created my math models for NHL and MLB and I know how you can create simple models for basketball and soccer. This is something I do every day and I want to help people with quality betting advice. I also challenge myself in other sports, to see if I can make a profit. You will see a lot of people, who are against those paid sports betting services and you will see betting services, who will tell, you that you should pay their picks. I am on both sides. Both are right.
Betting services will spend extra hours and they will do the dirty job. At the same time, you will do nothing and you just want to pick their advice for free, this is also not fair. Sometimes, I see “heroes” who took free advice and then they are rude / angry if they lost. Show some respect, because someone else made extra work, while you were sleeping. This is why I think that good and hard work should be paid. They will research games for you, they will give you an advice and I don’t have anything against that. The problem is that there are too many very bad betting services, who can not answer those 10 questions above.
But of course, there is small number of very good betting advisors out there, who will give you quality advice for a reasonable price.
But, I will also tell you, that unless you have a big budget, you don’t need to pay for the advice. You can find so many good free information and good picks on the net, that this is just amazing. There are a lot of free advisors, who will give you quality advice. Most of them do this for fun. I think if you start betting, you should follow those free sports handicappers and learn from them.
The only problem with free advisors is that they don’t owe you anything. They can disappear when they want and then you are at the beginning.
This is why I always say: “INVEST IN YOURSELF, NOT IN OTHER PEOPLE’S PICKS“. If you start researching handicappers, you will see, that you will put a lot of time and work to find good ones. You could spend this time to research your own bets.
Should you pay for the picks? Depends on your situation, but I am pretty sure – and this is based on my 20 year experience, that following other people’s picks will not bring you any money or success in betting. But if you decide to pay for the picks, ask them those 10 questions.
Believe me, you will have better chance to find really good betting service / sports handicapper.
A Journey into the mind of a successful sports bettor.
Most People think, that profit is most important indicator of success in sports betting. But it’s not. If you want to see how good one sports handicapper is, you should pay attention on three things: Yield, ROI and Profitability. I saw a lot of sites, that don’t understand the difference. Some sites use ROI as Yield and vice versa. This is why I will try to make simple explanation with an example, so everyone can understand those three important things.
Let’s say John has 10.000 EUR and he wants to invest in sports betting (instead of somewhere else). So, he will open an online bookmakers account and he will put those 10.000 on it. For simple example, we will say, that there are no fees and he has exactly 10.000EUR on his bookmaker account. He decided, that he will divide his bankroll into 100 parts and he will bet exactly one game each day in next 365 days. Every bet size will be exactly 100 EUR. He will not touch account for next 365 days and because of that all losses and wins will return on his account.
After one year, he made 365 bets, 100 EUR each. He won 195 bets and lost 170 bets. Right now he has exactly 12.760 EUR on his account. He made +2.760 EUR in this case.
Yield will measure betting efficiency. It is profit / sum of all stakes. Profit in our example is +2.760 EUR and he made 365 bets * 100 EUR = 36.500 EUR. Yield = 2760 / 36500 = 0.07562. His yield is 7.562%. Everything around 10% is very good.
ROI (Return of investment)
The definition for calculation is something like this: for a single-period review, divide the return (net profit) by the resources that were committed (investment). In our example, John made +2.760 EUR of profit with the starting money (this is his investment, not turnover) of 10.000EUR. His ROI in this example is 2.760 / 10.000 = 27.60%. With ROI you want to see, how much you gained in some period (one year for example).
“Profitability is the ability of a business to earn a profit.” Without profitability you sports betting will not survive on the long run and is measured with profit and losses. Profitability = Profit / All Losses. For example, John played 365 games and his record was 195–170. In this case he lost 170 bets * 100 EUR = 17.000 EUR. Profitability = 2.760 / 17.000 = 0.1623 or 16.23%.
Sports betting business is a huge market right now. People love entertainment and they always look to find easy way to win money.
”Too many people lost money in sports betting — Let’s change it!”Underdogchance.com
Jackpot, gambling, sports betting, Las Vegas…risk, risk, risk. People know the risk, but they still want to bet, they still risk their money with the hope, that one big hit will change their lives. Advanced sports bettors have their own strategy and they play smart and you know what? There are a lot of professional players who make living out of sports betting. No matter if we talk about winners or losers, the concept is the same. The first you need some money, then you open (online) account, where you upload that money and then you start risking your money until you reach your goals or until you lose it. So, this is how 95% people will get involved in sports betting business.
What if I tell you, that you can make a lot of money without placing a single bet, without risking single penny? Is it possible?
Yes, it is!
Here are 3 ways to make money trough sports betting without risking single penny:
Do you love Sports Betting and you don’t have starting money? Do you feel, that you have the knowledge, that you can beat bookmakers, but you don’t want to risk money or you just can not handle the pressure when it comes to real money? No problem — contests are for you!
What is sports betting contest? Sports betting contest is competition between people with imaginary money or net units. Almost every biggest betting portal and forum have some contests. First step is to find contests and then participate. You will bet with imaginary money and you will compete with other people. At the end of some period if you are good, you will win real money. Most of the time, they will give you money to bet on some online bookmaker, which is usually sponsor of this contest. But there are also some contests, where they will simply transfer this money to your e-wallet. I know people, who won 10.000 EUR or even more on sports betting contests. With that money, you can start betting and the best part — you didn’t risk a single penny.
Are you good at marketing or are you maybe developer? You don’t even want to bet? Maybe you should become affiliate. There are tons of online sports bookmakers and they all have the same goal — to bring as many bettors as possible to their site. If you can help them, you will be awarded. Almost every online bookmaker has affiliate programme. Create sites, find costumers, promote their sites, bring people in. A lot of Sports Betting Advice portals live just because of that, not because they sell very good betting advice.
If you want to make a step further and make something bigger, then you should create your own brand and later monetise the whole thing. So, how to start? The first step is to chose some name for your brand. Not bad idea is to have your own name, because people will trust you little bit more. After that you need to find and join sports betting communities (forums, portals,fb groups, twitter,…) with that same name. Start creating quality content (picks — betting advices), join contests and always help people, who are betting for real. They will always look for good advice and if you give them good advice, they will come back and bring other people too. So, how to monetise?
If you help people to make money, they will gladly pay you for advice. If you create your own brand on forums, betting sites, contests and if they know your name, because you gave them good content and you helped them, then they will follow you. There are a lot of sports betting advice sites, who charge 300, 500, even 1000 EUR per user per year. It’s a huge huge business. There are even sites, where you can sell your advices, so you don’t need to create your own website and they will just take some % of your profit. You can write a book, you can become affiliate,….there are many options and it is much easier, when you previously created your own brand on free forums, free betting portals,etc. Do you know what is the best part? You don’t need any money to start, you just have to work hard, create quality content and you can make a lot of money trough sports betting without placing single bet.
Underdogchance.com — A Journey into the mind of successful sports bettor