Mistake #2 Betting without understanding the market, statistics, probabilities and the odds
A lot of time I see handicappers, that say: “I have right information!”.
I love this sport. I know every player. I watch it for last 20 years.
This is BS.
Sports betting has almost nothing to do with the love of sport.
Things changed in last couple of years and reading news, watching games, love for the sports will not bring you anywhere.
After all sports betting has much more in common with investment, math and statistics than with the sport alone.
Sports fans think, that because they love sport, they can win in betting.
This is very wrong.
Sport is used only as a pool of information and it is great for bookmakers, because a lot of people love sports. This automatically means more players and more commission (because of margins)
We can bet on anything. The concept stays pretty the same.
It’s not about the sport, but about the numbers, strategy and prices on the market that you pay.
If sports betting would be so easy and if this would be a “sports knowledge skill”, then sports commentators would be the best bettors in the world.
ESPN journalist, CBS sports analyst would have the best results.
But in reality, they have very little knowledge about sports betting and their betting results are very bad once we include the odds and realistic situation from betting (odds, probabilities and advantage over the bookmakers,…). They don’t have a chance.
Sports betting is a market and in if you want to make money, you must beat this market. The market is expressed with numbers.
Not looking for winners, but looking for a value.
It is a game of prices (odds) not a game of winners and losers if you understand what I want to say.
It is the same with most handicappers, that don’t use any statistics at all and they talk about “winners” only.
You must understand one thing – with the internet, most information are public now. Maybe in some cases you can get some “insider” information from smaller or exotic leagues, but in this cases bookmakers limits are very small and this can not help anyone.
One of the key things, that most bettors still don’t understand are the odds, finding a value and of course realistic expectations.
The odds are nothing else, then probabilities turned into the numbers. And those numbers are the odds. Those odds are directly the prices, that we pay when we bet.
If you constantly pay too much (bet on “bad” odds) you lose money.
In order to win, you need somehow to find out what is the bad price and good price. We can be lucky in some period of time, but on the long run we must find the way how to estimate those numbers.
Finding the team that has better chance to win the game is logical.
Usually the odds below 2.00 (US +100), when we talk about the events with two possible outcomes will give you the answer.
But we are not looking who will have better chance to win a game, because finding out who has better chance to win the game is not that hard.
But what are those chances?
Is this this 55% or 65%?
Maybe 55% is qualified bet and will make you a profit on the long run, while 65% assumption is wrong and will not make you a profit on the long run.
I am sure, that there is no genius in this world, who can estimate those numbers in his head by reading news.
It must be some statistical method, it must be some formulas, that will constantly give you pictures about games.
Numbers are the heart of any sports betting.
Bookmakers use statistics and numbers. The odds are represented in numbers, not in colours for example.
Do you think, that they just read news and they simply set the odds based on their current feelings?
Every successful business use statistics. Companies spend millions and millions of dollars for research and optimisation.
I always wonder, who most people in sports betting world are still so naive, that they think that they will win without any game research, that includes statistics.
In my A Journey online betting course, I will show you how you can estimate your own winning percentages and your own ODDS for different sports.
It also gives you enough flexibility to change the method and include your own ideas. Some of my students already created some betting models, that have great results. Some even better than my initial.