Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins are two teams with good defence, but they struggle to score this season. Carolina Panthers score 18.7 points per game and they are 18th ranked offensive team in NFL based on my numbers.
On the other side we have Miami Dolphins, who are the worst scoring team this season with 14.5 points per game. They are 32nd ranked team based on my rankings.
But still, both teams find the way to win the games, despite they don’t score much. Carolina is 5-3 to the season and Miami is 4-4 to the season.
But let’s start with some number and projected odds.
Cloudbet opened Carolina at -9, but the line dropped to -8 right now. My model has Carolina at -13, which is close to 2 TD’s, but if we take into account, that both teams play very defensively, then expecting that one team will beat another by 2 TD’s is very optimistic,…at least on the first look.
Carolina won two straight games: Tampa Bay on the road by 17-3 and then at home Atlanta by 20-17. Their QB Newton rushed for 86 yards in last game and with him they have two dimensional attack. He can pass and he can rush. Despite I like more one dimensional quarter backs, we must agree that with such QB the team also has more options.
Carolina will face Miami team, that is 4th best in the league when it comes to preventing rushing yards, but they also allowed 6 rushing TD’s.
Miami Dolphins scored 12 TD’s trough air (passing) and zero trough rushing. If we take into account, that Carolina defence is second best in the league against rushing attacks, I believe, that Miami will try to rely on Jay Cutler. He played really well in the last game as he completed a career-high 81 percent of his passes against Oakland. If he can keep this I think this is the right way, because Carolina allowed only 3 rushing touch downs, which is the best in the league (Houston same number). But Carolina also allowed 12 passing touch downs and this is the way for Miami.
Trends and other interesting information
Miami Dolphins are 5-0 ATS against Carolina Panthers in last 5 meetings. They are also good bounce back team after they allowed more than 350 total yards in previous game (8-3-2). But they are 0-7 ATS on Monday games. And Monday Night Football Games are something special in USA. Sunday is a regular day for NFL and one game is played on Monday, when whole America is watching this game. Miami doesn’t have the best record in this situation.
Carolina on the other side is 1-4 ATS in last 5 home games. They are also 10-0 after they win a game as an underdog, where they scored 20 points or less.
Conclusion and the pick:
We will have two low scoring teams here. The totals were opened at around 40 and then dropped to 38. My projected total for this game is 32 and I expect, that the game will be decided in the defence.
I also project, that Carolina should be a favourite of -13.5 points in this game, which surprised me too. Yesterday I recommended a pick, that was against my betting model and the model was right with 49ers, who beat Giants. With odds dropping to -8 right now on Carolina, there is a 5.5 pint difference between my lines and bookmakers lines. The question is can Cutler play the same game and have same passing game like in the last game? The problem is that he faced Oakland, that is below league average in defence. Today he will face one of the best defences in NFL. Miami doesn’t have rushing and Carolina is very good rushing defence, so I believe, they will not have a lot of chance here. So, they will try to pass and Carolina knows it.
Miami scores 14.5 points per game, but in today’s game they could score little bit less. Note also, that they score only 9 points per game on the road and Carolina allowed 12.5 points in last 3 games, which is even better than their season numbers.
I believe, that with Newton we have better QB and I I think minus money is correct on Carolina. The question is only, how much. While my betting model suggests close to 2 TD’s in this game, I think this is still little bit too much, but because the line dropped on Carolina, I think they can score a TD and one field goal. If they keep playing their defence and if Miami continue struggling in offence, Carolina -8 can be a play.
RECOMMENDED PLAY: CAROLINA PANTHERS -8 at Cloudbet