https://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/2015-nfl-divisional-chiefs-patriots-betting-odds.jpg 400 600 MB https://underdogchance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/logostran.png MB2017-09-06 21:46:212017-09-06 21:47:41Where to bet NFL and how much money you lose in one season if you pick a wrong bookmaker?
Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will open new NFL season tomorrow and there will be a lot of betting action whole season. Every season is a new season, new opportunity and we all start from the beginning. Some bettors or investors, if you like will be prepared for this season with strategy, betting methods and all kind of power rankings, but many of them will ignore one important thing – right bookmaker.
So, I wanted to show you on real example how important is to select a good bookmaker and how much money you can lose if you ignore this. The average bettor will say, that he doesn’t care if the odds are -105 or -108 or -110, he just want the winners. And of course, this is wrong.
I will show you on real example, that the difference between two same handicappers, with same skill and same results can be huge only because of one thing – bookmaker.
NFL is very popular in USA and this is why I focused on bookmakers, that accept US players, so there is no excuse, that you pick a wrong bookmaker.
The first thing I wanted to know is how much money will bookmaker take from you when you bet. Every time when you bet, they take some small piece of cake. Some bookmakers will take more, some less and I wanted to see how much will they take from. Of course your goal is to pick that one, that will take less money, right?
In the table below I picked 8 bookmakers and calculated the margins. The bigger is the number the more money they take from you. This is not hard to calculate. Just divide 1 by the odds and sum both numbers. If you have the odds 1.92 vs 1.86, then:
1/1.92 = 0.5208 = 52.08%
1/1.86= 0.5376 = 53.76%
52.08% + 53.76% = 105.84%
105.84% – 100% = 5.84%
I checked websites and took the odds right there – no betting portals or odds comparison sites. Then I calculated margins to see, which bookmaker has the lowest and which bookmaker has the highest margins. Then I took the average for moneylines, spread and the totals.
As you see, the lowest margins has the Nitrogensports and right next to them is Cloudbet and Lunarbets.
HOW MUCH YOU LOSE IF YOU DON’T CARE ABOUT BOOKMAKERS?
I know a lot of bettors will say, that this is just small difference and that this is not important. But are they right?
So I took those average margins and I wanted to see what are the results on 512 picks during the season. Let’s say, that we have 2 bets on every single game (spread or totals or moneyline). 256 regular season games * 2 bets = 512 bets
And let’s say that we have 8 handicappers with same skill, same knowledge, same ability to pick winners,… let’s say, that they will make the same number of picks during NFL season and that they will have the same record.
Do you think, that they will all make profit? NO WAY!
Table below shows different profits on different bookmakers if handicappers have the same record (1 unit per play).
At the end I compare $100 bettor versus $500 bettor versus $1000 bettor and how much money they lose if they pick wrong bookmaker.
If the handicapper decided to play all games on Nitrogensports, he will make a profit with the record of 263-249 (51.37%). On the other side some other handicapper needs to be much better to make profit if he plays at Youwager, for example. If he wins 5 bets more, he will still have negative record.
And what that means if we turn this into real money?
Let’s say that we have 8 really good handicappers, who will have outstanding season and will have the record of 297-215 (58%.00) at the end of the season.
If they are $100 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $1,247 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
If they are $500 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $6,236 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
If they are $500 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $12,474 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
I ASK YOU ONE MORE TIME, IS IT IMPORTANT IF YOU LOSE $10,000?
Losing $12,474 or $1,247 or even only $100 every season is not a joke. And if you lose money just because you bet on wrong place, this is very bad. Bad seasons will come, sometimes we will lose more games in a row, sometimes we will make less profit than we would expect. All those things will happen and sometimes we can not do anything about it. But do not lose money because of bookmakers, sports betting is hard job anyway, don’t make it harder because of that.
WILL BOOKMAKER WITH THE LOWEST MARGINS ALWAYS HAVE THE BEST ODDS?
It is crucial to understand the difference between the best odds and the bookmaker with the best odds (Read here). And you also must to understand, that every bookmaker has pros and cons. Some will have higher limits, some lower, some will offer great welcome bonuses, etc..
SO, WHERE TO BET NFL?
If we talk about the bookmakers with lowest margins and if we talk about how to make more money with the same record, then I think the best bookmakers are:
Those three are bitcoin bookmakers and they are already better then most traditional (fiat) bookmakers in every aspect. If you are new with bitcoins, you can read here how to bet with bitcoins – here.
I hope this was helpful and you decide where you will bet. You know how to calculate margins/juice now, be smart and don’t give away your money. I wish you successful NFL season.