Most of my plays are moneyline bets. I don’t bet special bets and I rarely play totals. I stick with high limits bets, where I can invest more money. But before I answer on this question, let’s explain couple of other things, that are important.
One baseball game is one EVENT, right? And every event has two outcomes:
Every outcome has some probability or if you like – Team A has a chance that will win this game and Team B has a chance to win this game.
Bookmakers estimate those probabilities and then they turn those probabilities into the odds (plus some margin of course)
At the same time, I use my my MLB BASEBALL BETTING MODEL, that I reveal and teach you in my online betting course called A Journey.
I simply estimate my own probabilities and then I turn those probabilities into the odds.
So, what are the odds? The odds are the prices, that you will pay when you bet.
So, for example if I estimate, that Boston Red Sox have a chance of 56.44% to win a game versus NY Yankees, my fair odds would be 1.77 (US odds: -130). In this case I expect, that when I bet $1000 on Red Sox, bookmakers would pay me $770 for Red Sox win. And based on this number I decide if I will bet this game or not.
If bookmakers set the odds on Boston Red Sox 1.60 (US odds: -167), I will get only $600 if my bet (Red Sox) wins. In this case I was expecting at least $770 of profit, but I get only $600. And this is not a value for me. I would stay away from this game.
On the other side if bookmakers set the odds of 2.1 (US odds: +110) on Boston Red Sox, I would get $1100 of profit, which is $330 more than I would expect. And this is something I call it a value. In this case I would bet on Red Sox, because I get more for my money.
The value is something you face it every day. When you go to a store and you see two jackets, totally same quality and you like them equally, the logical decision would be to buy cheaper one. Why? Because you get more for the same money. And if you will do this constantly, you will save money. If you will look for the value constantly in sports betting, you will make a profit.