CINCINNATI (Stephenson) +125 at 5DIMES
My Projected Lines and the odds
Cincinnati and Milwaukee will play the second game today and it looks like the public will be with Milwaukee and the bookmakers have Cincinnati Reds as underdog of around 2.25 and we can find them at 2.30 too. Milwaukee is motivated here, because they need wins, but this doesn’t mean that they will win for sure. My betting model has Cincinnati at 57.59% and I think we have wrong underdog here.
Zach Davies will start for Milwaukee Brewers. He has been very good lately, but his strikeout rate is not that great (106 K in 160 innings) and he already lost a game this season in Cincinnati. I rank him as a league average pitcher.
On the other side Cincinnati will start with Robert Stephenson, who pitched only 32 innings this season, but has also 32 strikeouts. His biggest problem is control as he walked 20 hitters in just 32 innings. But in last two games he struck out 18 batters in 11 innings. He also won 3 straight games. I rank him just below Zach Davies.
If the pitching match up is close to even, I think Cincinnati is better in other parts of the game. First of all, they are playing at home and they are playing without any pressure. Secondly, they have better offense (5 runs/game vs RHP, BA 0.258) compared to Milwaukee (4.3 runs versus RHP, BA 0.247). They also have slightly better bullpen and if we take all those tings into account, this match could be much closer than most people think.
Reason for pick
I don’t see any huge pitching advantage by Milwaukee. Yes, Davies has better ERA, but ERA doesn’t tell us everything and Stephenson strike out rate has been pretty good lately. Cincinnati has better offense and slightly better bullpen too. They are playing at home and my model gives them more than 50% of chance to win this game.
Play Cincinnati (Stephenson)
MINNESOTA TWINS (Colon) +126 at NITROGENSPORTS
My Projected Lines and the odds
Minnesota Twins are fighting for a wild card and they are just behind the Yankees. And if we look at their results, they were the best team in August and they are playing really well. They lost 3 of last 4 games, but two of those losses were by only 1 run. Bookmakers set Minnesota as an underdog here, but I think this could be close match and I even think, that Minnesota has better chance. Based on my model, I give them 54.90% of chance to win this game. Because of that my odds on Minnesota are 1.82 and bookmakers have them at around 2.20. Because of that I have a value with Minnesota.
Bartolo Colon will start for Minnesota and his ERA is 6.25 to the season, in last 3 games ERA of 3.86. I rank him somewhere below league average and I don’t expect some extra performance from him. He is very experienced pitcher, he will go probably go around 5-6 innings and he collected 3 straight wins right now.
On the other side we have Odorizzi, who is in little bit bigger troubles right now. His pitching is not even close to great. In last 3 games he itched only 12 innings and he walked more (12) than he struck out (9). He lost his only game against Minnesota this season, when he allowed 4 walks and struck out only 4 hitters. Minnesota hitters combined batting average of .304 in 56 at bats against him.
Minnesota is better hitting team (4.9 runs per game versus 4.3 from Tampa) and I don’t see any huge advantage in bullpens.
Reason for pick
Minnesota is a team with winning record and currently I think we have better option with Colon on the mound. Odorizzi has been struggling little bit too much lately. If he will keep allowing home runs and walks, he will be in big troubles today against Minnesota. Bookmakers have Twins as an underdog and with that, they give them less than 50% of chance. I think this match will be much much closer, than most people think.
Play Minnesota (Colon)
DETROIT TIGERS (Sanchez) +113 at NITROGENSPORTS
* Bookmakers line: +113 (2.13)
* My Projected lines (math model): -125 (1.80)
Miguel Cabrera is suspended, but still Detroit Tigers even without him are a good team against left handed pitchers. This is one of the situations, when it is worth considering to take Detroit. They have winning record against lefties this season (19-18) and if we check their overall record is pretty bad (58-79). I expect little bit more from this team.
But yes, they are good against lefties and they score 5.2 runs per game aganst them with batting average of 0.278.
Kansas on the other side is playing for wild card and they need wins. They won in a close game yesterday, but today they will start with left handed pitcher and I think this is not situation for them. First of all Vargas is a left handed pitcher, who already lost a game against Detroit this season, when he allowed 6 runs in just 2 innings. Secondly, he is not playing well right now. He lost 3 straight games with ERA of 7.47 and allowed 4 home runs in last 2 games.
Detroit on the other side will start with Anibal Sanchez, who is not playing well too, but he is 6-5 against Kansas with ERA of 2.68. Despite he lost this season game against them, I think with current form from both pitchers, I don7t see any big pitching advantage on any side.
Detroit is playing well against lefties, they are playing without Martinez and Cabrera, but late in the season, some younger guys are very motivated and yesterday Detroit collected 12 runs. Their batting average against lefties is among the best in the league and if they can score some runs today, I think we have a open game and nice home underdog.
Play Detroit (Sanchez)