3 UNDERDOGS

PHILADELPHIA (Thompson) +318

  • Bookmakers line: +318 (4.18)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +199 (2.99)
Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals will play the second game today and when we loot at yesterday’s game it was a close one (again) for Philadelphia. They are playing pretty good right now. Their season is over, but a lot of talented young players want to show what they got.
In last 8 games, they won 4 and 2 of the losses were by only one run. Today they will face Scherzer and there is no doubt that Washington will have huge pitching advantage, but the question is what is the fair price. And I think that 4.11 is little bit to high.
Jake Thompson pitched 4 games this season and he is just coming to this game after his best performance against Miami (6 innings, 7 strike outs). If he can keep Washington at minimum, I think at the end anything can happen.
Washington is still playing without their best player Harper and they score only 3.7 runs/game in last 7 days, compared to Philadelphia that scores 5.1. Note also, that Scherzer had some issues with calf before this game.
Because of all that, I think, that the odds are little bit too high.
Recommended Play Philadelphia

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DETROIT (Farmer) +300

  • Bookmakers line: +200 (3.00)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +126 (2.26)
We have two teams with losing record and basically season for both teams is over. Detroit lost 8 of last 11 games and this is the same record for Toronto too.
Detroit will start with Farmer, who is 3-2 to the season and the only two wins he collected on the road, where he posted ERA of 2.25.
On the other side Stroman will play for Toronto, who is 11-6 to the season with ERA of 3.08 and I rank him higher than Farmer on the other side. But he had some injury problems since last game (elbow), when he pitched only 1 inning.
When we compare those two teams, I don’t see any hitting advantage by Toronto, in fact I have ranked Detroit higher in hitting and with all the injured players from Blue Jays (Martin, Tulowitzki, Travis, Coghlan), I think we have better hitting team with the Tigers. When we add that, both teams are strugglng, I think that the odds are little bit too high on Detroit.
I still give better chance to Toronto, but only around 55.81%, which is less than bookmakers and because of that, there is some value with Tigers today.
Recommended Play Detroit

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TAMPA BAY (Archer)

  • Bookmakers line: +120 (2.20)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -126 (1.79)
Tampa Bay Rays are playing for the playoffs and the Boston leads AL League East. So we can expect really good game. Tampa Bay will go with Chris Archer, who is 2-11 in his career against Boston, but he beat Boston in both games this season.
I rank Archer higher than Pomeranz on the other side and I think that Tampa Bay will have starting pitching advantage. Archer left the last game with small injury (forearm), and we can add this into account too before making this bet, but I still like him, because he is top pitcher in MLB and has 225 strike outs in 179 innings. He was just outstanding before that last game, when he beat Toronto and St Louis (18 strike outs in 13 innings).
Drew Pomeranz on the other side has a great season too and because he is playing for one of the best teams in MLB, he has really good record too (14-5). However, I am not impressed by his pitching lately. Whip 1.681, 11 walks in 18 innings and his SIERA is 4.77 compared to 2.62 by Archer.
With Tampa Bay we have better pitcher, who is playing great this season and who already beat Boston in both games in 2017. I have projected, that Tampa Bay will have little bit more than 50% of chance in this game and Drew Pomeranz is not pitching that well right now. Because of that, I think Tampa Bay as an underdog is a right play.

3 FAVS

ST LOUIS (Weaver) -190

  • Bookmakers line: -190 (2.20)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -282 (1.36)
Pittsburgh is going to face St Louis who will start with Luke Weaver. Weaver has been outstanding this season and holds the record of 4-1 in 5 games. But even more impressive than his record is that he struck out 42 batters in 31 innings. If he would struck out one more batter in the last game against San Francisco, he would have 3 consecutive games with 10 strike outs.
Pittsburgh on the other side will start with Williams, who is 5-6 to the season and his road ERA is 4.72. He played two games in his career against St Louis and both games were in 2017 (the last 18.august) and they hit him hard (17 hits, 3 home runs, 10 ER in 8 innings).
Note also, that Carpenter and Phan are in the lineup for St Louis, while Mccutchen is out of today7s lineup for Pittsburgh. I have projected, that St Louis will have ore than 70% of chance to win this game and I think that Pittsburgh will have tough time here.

CLEVELAND (Clevinger) -155

  • Bookmakers line: -155 (1.65)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -184 (1.54)
Cleveland Indians just won 14 straight games. This is one of the most impressive streaks that I have seen. They are red hot and of course, there will be a lot of speculations, when this streak will end and so on…. but I don’t want to be distracted by this. I will just keep analysing the games and try to find the value. And with today’s game, I think we have a value.
First of all, Cleveland will have better pitcher on the mound. Clevinger is 8-4 to the season with ERA of 3.18. He was outstanding in last games and he also beat Baltimore in his only game this season against them.
Baltimore on the other side will start with Miley, who is 8-14 to the season with ERA of 4.91 and his ERA on the road is even bigger (5.19). But what I also like about Indians pick here is that they hit him hard in the past. He lost the last game against Cleveland and his record is 1-2 versus Cleveland Indians with ERA of 5.03 and whip 1.983.
Jose Ramirez is out for Cleveland today, but I still think, that Cleveland is much better team even without Ramirez. Better pitcher on the mound, better bullpen and better hitting team. I have projected that Indians should be at around -184 and with -155, there is some value for sure.

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NY METS (Lugo) -105

  • Bookmakers line: -105 (1.95)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -100 (2.00)
I think the odds are pretty fair, but this pick is more gut play for me than anything else. Cincinnati and NY Mets are out of the playoffs this season and they will just play for their fans until the end of the season. I expect, that Cincinnati will play much better at home, where they score a lot of runs in a hitters friendly ballpark. I also expect, that they will struggle little bit until the end of the season on the road.
On the other side NY Mets just won 3 out of last 4 games and I expect, that they will try to show some good effort in front of home fans.
And when we compare those two pitchers today, I think that Mets will have nice pitching advantage. Garrett is not playing well, his season ERA is 7.40. He pitched the last game in june and he is back right now. 29 walks in 58 innings is not good.
On the other side Mets will start with Lugo, who is pretty solid and I have ranked him above league average this season. His SIERA in last 30 days is 3.61, which is good.
Note also, that Mets have better bullpen and that they have very good record against Cincinnati. 15-2 last three seasons and 7-0 at home in last 3 seasons.
Play Mets as a small favourite.
Good Luck